On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Optimising preventive maintenance strategy for production Lines

Preventive Maintenance (PM) is often applied to improve the reliability of production lines. A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal PM decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple (imperfect) PM actions over multiple intervals. The conditional and overall reliability of the entire production line over these multiple PM intervals are hierarchically calculated using SSA, and provide a foundation for cost analysis. Both risk-related cost and maintenance-related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimised considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally, it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimise Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Combinatorial design of key distribution mechanisms for wireless sensor networks

Secure communications in wireless sensor networks operating under adversarial conditions require providing pairwise (symmetric) keys to sensor nodes. In large scale deployment scenarios, there is no prior knowledge of post deployment network configuration since nodes may be randomly scattered over a hostile territory. Thus, shared keys must be distributed before deployment to provide each node a key-chain. For large sensor networks it is infeasible to store a unique key for all other nodes in the key-chain of a sensor node. Consequently, for secure communication either two nodes have a key in common in their key-chains and they have a wireless link between them, or there is a path, called key-path, among these two nodes where each pair of neighboring nodes on this path have a key in common. Length of the key-path is the key factor for efficiency of the design. This paper presents novel deterministic and hybrid approaches based on Combinatorial Design for deciding how many and which keys to assign to each key-chain before the sensor network deployment. In particular, Balanced Incomplete Block Designs (BIBD) and Generalized Quadrangles (GQ) are mapped to obtain efficient key distribution schemes. Performance and security properties of the proposed schemes are studied both analytically and computationally. Comparison to related work shows that the combinatorial approach produces better connectivity with smaller key-chain sizes.

Key Management in Wireless Sensor Networks

This chapter presents a comparative survey of recent key management (key distribution, discovery, establishment and update) solutions for wireless sensor networks. We consider both distributed and hierarchical sensor network architectures where unicast, multicast and broadcast types of communication take place. Probabilistic, deterministic and hybrid key management solutions are presented, and we determine a set of metrics to quantify their security properties and resource usage such as processing, storage and communication overheads. We provide a taxonomy of solutions, and identify trade-offs in these schemes to conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all solution.

Combinatorial design of key distribution mechanisms for wireless sensor networks

Key distribution is one of the most challenging security issues in wireless sensor networks where sensor nodes are randomly scattered over a hostile territory. In such a sensor deployment scenario, there will be no prior knowledge of post deployment configuration. For security solutions requiring pairwise keys, it is impossible to decide how to distribute key pairs to sensor nodes before the deployment. Existing approaches to this problem are to assign more than one key, namely a key-chain, to each node. Key-chains are randomly drawn from a key-pool. Either two neighboring nodes have a key in common in their key-chains, or there is a path, called key-path, among these two nodes where each pair of neighboring nodes on this path has a key in common. Problem in such a solution is to decide on the key-chain size and key-pool size so that every pair of nodes can establish a session key directly or through a path with high probability. The size of the key-path is the key factor for the efficiency of the design. This paper presents novel, deterministic and hybrid approaches based on Combinatorial Design for key distribution. In particular, several block design techniques are considered for generating the key-chains and the key-pools.

Adaptive stepsize based on control theory for stochastic differential equations

The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focused recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the "best" choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy.

High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations

The pioneering work of Runge and Kutta a hundred years ago has ultimately led to suites of sophisticated numerical methods suitable for solving complex systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations. However, in many modelling situations, the appropriate representation is a stochastic differential equation and here numerical methods are much less sophisticated. In this paper a very general class of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods is presented and much more efficient classes of explicit methods than previous extant methods are constructed. In particular, a method of strong order 2 with a deterministic component based on the classical Runge-Kutta method is constructed and some numerical results are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Order conditions of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods by B-series

In this paper, general order conditions and a global convergence proof are given for stochastic Runge Kutta methods applied to stochastic ordinary differential equations ( SODEs) of Stratonovich type. This work generalizes the ideas of B-series as applied to deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to the stochastic case and allows a completely general formalism for constructing high order stochastic methods, either explicit or implicit. Some numerical results will be given to illustrate this theory.

Expander graph based key distribution mechanisms in wireless sensor networks

Secure communications between large number of sensor nodes that are randomly scattered over a hostile territory, necessitate efficient key distribution schemes. However, due to limited resources at sensor nodes such schemes cannot be based on post deployment computations. Instead, pairwise (symmetric) keys are required to be pre-distributed by assigning a list of keys, (a.k.a. key-chain), to each sensor node. If a pair of nodes does not have a common key after deployment then they must find a key-path with secured links. The objective is to minimize the keychain size while (i) maximizing pairwise key sharing probability and resilience, and (ii) minimizing average key-path length. This paper presents a deterministic key distribution scheme based on Expander Graphs. It shows how to map the parameters (e.g., degree, expansion, and diameter) of a Ramanujan Expander Graph to the desired properties of a key distribution scheme for a physical network topology.

High strong order methods for non-commutative stochastic ordinary differential equation systems and the Magnus formula

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to the numerical solution of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs), as SODEs are often more appropriate than their deterministic counterparts in many modelling situations. However, unlike the deterministic case numerical methods for SODEs are considerably less sophisticated due to the difficulty in representing the (possibly large number of) random variable approximations to the stochastic integrals. Although Burrage and Burrage [High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations, Applied Numerical Mathematics 22 (1996) 81-101] were able to construct strong local order 1.5 stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for certain cases, it is known that all extant stochastic Runge-Kutta methods suffer an order reduction down to strong order 0.5 if there is non-commutativity between the functions associated with the multiple Wiener processes. This order reduction down to that of the Euler-Maruyama method imposes severe difficulties in obtaining meaningful solutions in a reasonable time frame and this paper attempts to circumvent these difficulties by some new techniques. An additional difficulty in solving SODEs arises even in the Linear case since it is not possible to write the solution analytically in terms of matrix exponentials unless there is a commutativity property between the functions associated with the multiple Wiener processes. Thus in this present paper first the work of Magnus [On the exponential solution of differential equations for a linear operator, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 7 (1954) 649-673] (applied to deterministic non-commutative Linear problems) will be applied to non-commutative linear SODEs and methods of strong order 1.5 for arbitrary, linear, non-commutative SODE systems will be constructed - hence giving an accurate approximation to the general linear problem. Secondly, for general nonlinear non-commutative systems with an arbitrary number (d) of Wiener processes it is shown that strong local order I Runge-Kutta methods with d + 1 stages can be constructed by evaluated a set of Lie brackets as well as the standard function evaluations. A method is then constructed which can be efficiently implemented in a parallel environment for this arbitrary number of Wiener processes. Finally some numerical results are presented which illustrate the efficacy of these approaches. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

General order conditions for stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for both commuting and non-commuting stochastic ordinary differential equation systems

In many modeling situations in which parameter values can only be estimated or are subject to noise, the appropriate mathematical representation is a stochastic ordinary differential equation (SODE). However, unlike the deterministic case in which there are suites of sophisticated numerical methods, numerical methods for SODEs are much less sophisticated. Until a recent paper by K. Burrage and P.M. Burrage (1996), the highest strong order of a stochastic Runge-Kutta method was one. But K. Burrage and P.M. Burrage (1996) showed that by including additional random variable terms representing approximations to the higher order Stratonovich (or Ito) integrals, higher order methods could be constructed. However, this analysis applied only to the one Wiener process case. In this paper, it will be shown that in the multiple Wiener process case all known stochastic Runge-Kutta methods can suffer a severe order reduction if there is non-commutativity between the functions associated with the Wiener processes. Importantly, however, it is also suggested how this order can be repaired if certain commutator operators are included in the Runge-Kutta formulation. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. and IMACS. All rights reserved.

Games for change and transformative learning : an ethnographic case study

This thesis aims to contribute to a better understanding of how serious games/games for change function as learning frameworks for transformative learning in an educational setting. This study illustrates how the meaning-making processes and learning with and through computer gameplay are highly contingent, and are significantly influenced by the uncertainties of the situational context. The study focuses on SCAPE, a simulation game that addresses urban planning and sustainability. SCAPE is based on the real-world scenario of Kelvin Grove Urban Village, an inner city redevelopment area in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. The game is embedded within an educational program, and I thus account for the various gameplay experiences of different school classes participating in this program. The networks emerging from the interactions between students/players, educators, facilitators, the technology, the researcher, as well as the setting, result in unanticipated, controversial, and sometimes unintended gameplay experiences and outcomes. To unpack play, transformative learning and games, this study adopts an ecological approach that considers the magic circle of gameplay in its wider context. Using Actor-Network Theory as the ontological lens for inquiry, the methods for investigation include an extensive literature review, ethnographic participant observation of SCAPE, as well as student and teacher questionnaires, finishing with interviews with the designers and facilitators of SCAPE. Altogether, these methods address my research aim to better understand how the heterogeneous actors engage in the relationships in and around gameplay, and illustrate how their conflicting understandings enable, shape or constrain the (transformative) learning experience. To disentangle these complexities, my focus continuously shifts between the following modes of inquiry into the aims „h To describe and analyse the game as a designed artefact. „h To examine the gameplay experiences of players/students and account for how these experiences are constituted in the relationships of the network. „h To trace the meaning-making processes emerging from the various relations of players/students, facilitators, teachers, designers, technology, researcher, and setting, and consider how the boundaries of the respective ecology are configured and negotiated. „h To draw out the implications for the wider research area of game-based learning by using the simulation game SCAPE as an example for introducing gameplay to educational settings. Accounting in detail for five school classes, these accounts represent, each in its own right, distinct and sometimes controversial forms of engagement in gameplay. The practices and negotiations of all the assembled human and non-human actors highlight the contingent nature of gameplay and learning. In their sum, they offer distinct but by no means exhaustive examples of the various relationships that emerge from the different assemblages of human and non-human actors. This thesis, hence, illustrates that game-based learning in an educational setting is accompanied by considerable unpredictability and uncertainty. As ordinary life spills and leaks into gameplay experiences, group dynamics and the negotiations of technology, I argue that overly deterministic assertions of the game¡¦s intention, as well as a too narrowly defined understanding of the transformative learning outcome, can constrain our inquiries and hinder efforts to further elucidate and understand the evolving uncertainties around game-based learning. Instead, this thesis posits that playing and transformative learning are relational effects of the respective ecology, where all actors are networked in their (partial) enrolment in the process of translation. This study thus attempts to foreground the rich opportunities for exploring how game-based learning is assembled as a network of practices.

Decentralized detector generation in cooperative intrusion detection system

We consider Cooperative Intrusion Detection System (CIDS) which is a distributed AIS-based (Artificial Immune System) IDS where nodes collaborate over a peer-to-peer overlay network. The AIS uses the negative selection algorithm for the selection of detectors (e.g., vectors of features such as CPU utilization, memory usage and network activity). For better detection performance, selection of all possible detectors for a node is desirable but it may not be feasible due to storage and computational overheads. Limiting the number of detectors on the other hand comes with the danger of missing attacks. We present a scheme for the controlled and decentralized division of detector sets where each IDS is assigned to a region of the feature space. We investigate the trade-off between scalability and robustness of detector sets. We address the problem of self-organization in CIDS so that each node generates a distinct set of the detectors to maximize the coverage of the feature space while pairs of nodes exchange their detector sets to provide a controlled level of redundancy. Our contribution is twofold. First, we use Symmetric Balanced Incomplete Block Design, Generalized Quadrangles and Ramanujan Expander Graph based deterministic techniques from combinatorial design theory and graph theory to decide how many and which detectors are exchanged between which pair of IDS nodes. Second, we use a classical epidemic model (SIR model) to show how properties from deterministic techniques can help us to reduce the attack spread rate.

Key distribution mechanisms for wireless sensor networks : a survey

Advances in technology introduce new application areas for sensor networks. Foreseeable wide deployment of mission critical sensor networks creates concerns on security issues. Security of large scale densely deployed and infrastructure less wireless networks of resource limited sensor nodes requires efficient key distribution and management mechanisms. We consider distributed and hierarchical wireless sensor networks where unicast, multicast and broadcast type of communications can take place. We evaluate deterministic, probabilistic and hybrid type of key pre-distribution and dynamic key generation algorithms for distributing pair-wise, group-wise and network-wise keys.

Combinatorial design of key distribution mechanisms for wireless sensor networks

Key distribution is one of the most challenging security issues in wireless sensor networks where sensor nodes are randomly scattered over a hostile territory. In such a sensor deployment scenario, there will be no prior knowledge of post deployment configuration. For security solutions requiring pair wise keys, it is impossible to decide how to distribute key pairs to sensor nodes before the deployment. Existing approaches to this problem are to assign more than one key, namely a key-chain, to each node. Key-chains are randomly drawn from a key-pool. Either two neighbouring nodes have a key in common in their key-chains, or there is a path, called key-path, among these two nodes where each pair of neighbouring nodes on this path has a key in common. Problem in such a solution is to decide on the key-chain size and key-pool size so that every pair of nodes can establish a session key directly or through a path with high probability. The size of the key-path is the key factor for the efficiency of the design. This paper presents novel, deterministic and hybrid approaches based on Combinatorial Design for key distribution. In particular, several block design techniques are considered for generating the key-chains and the key-pools. Comparison to probabilistic schemes shows that our combinatorial approach produces better connectivity with smaller key-chain sizes.