Familial recurrence risks for multiple sclerosis in Australia

BACKGROUND: Genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) has been recognised for many years. Considerable data exist from the northern hemisphere regarding the familial recurrence risks for MS, but there are few data for the southern hemisphere and regions at lower latitude such as Australia. To investigate the interaction between environmental and genetic causative factors in MS, the authors undertook a familial recurrence risk study in three latitudinally distinct regions of Australia. METHODS: Immediate and extended family pedigrees have been collected for three cohorts of people with MS in Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania spanning 15° of latitude. Age of onset data from Queensland were utilised to estimate age-adjusted recurrence rates. RESULTS: Recurrence risks in Australia were significantly lower than in studies from northern hemisphere populations. The age-adjusted risk for siblings across Australia was 2.13% compared with 3.5% for the northern hemisphere. A similar pattern was seen for other relatives. The risks to relatives were proportional to the population risks for each site, and hence the sibling recurrence-risk ratio (λ(s)) was similar across all sites. DISCUSSION: The familial recurrence risk of MS in Australia is lower than in previously reported studies. This is directly related to the lower population prevalence of MS. The overall genetic susceptibility in Australia as measured by the λ(s) is similar to the northern hemisphere, suggesting that the difference in population risk is explained largely by environmental factors rather than by genetic admixture.

Developing targets and strategies for school-based injury prevention programs to reduce alcohol associated transport risks

Background There is considerable and ongoing debate about the role and effectiveness of school-based injury prevention programs in reducing students’ later involvement in alcohol associated transport injuries. Most relevant literature is concerned with pre-driving and licensing programs for middle age range adolescents (15-17 years). This research team is concerned with prevention at an earlier stage by targeting interventions to young adolescents (13-14 years). There is strong evidence that young adolescents who engage in unsafe and illegal alcohol associated transport risks are significantly likely to incur serious related injuries in longitudinal follow up. For example, a state-wide representative sample of male adolescents (mean age 14.5 years) who reported being passengers of drink drivers were significantly more likely to have incurred a hospitalised injury related to traffic events at a 20 year follow up. Aim This paper reports on first aid training integrated with peer protection and school connectedness within the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program. A component of the intervention is concerned with providing strategies to reduce the likelihood of being a passenger of a drink driver and effectiveness is followed up at six months post-intervention. Method In early 2012 the study was undertaken in 35 high schools throughout Queensland that were randomly assigned to intervention and control conditions. A total of 2,521 Year 9 students (mean age 13.5years, 43% male) completed surveys prior to the intervention. Results Of these students 316 (13.7%) reported having ridden in a car with someone who has been drinking. This is a traffic safety behaviour that is particularly relevant to a peer protection intervention and the findings of the six month follow up will be reported. Discussion and conclusions This research will provide evidence as to whether this approach to the introduction of first aid skills within a school-based health education curriculum has traffic safety implications.

Fundamental understanding on the use of Bluetooth scanner as a complementary transport data

Literature is limited in its knowledge of the Bluetooth protocol based data acquisition process and in the accuracy and reliability of the analysis performed using the data. This paper extends the body of knowledge surrounding the use of data from the Bluetooth Media Access Control Scanner (BMS) as a complementary traffic data source. A multi layer simulation model named Traffic and Communication Simulation (TCS) is developed. TCS is utilised to model the theoretical properties of the BMS data and analyse the accuracy and reliability of travel time estimation using the BMS data.

Development of school connectedness as a component of an injury prevention program for early adolescents

The current program of research addresses the need for multi-level programs to target the major increase in injury rates that occurs throughout adolescence. Specifically, it involves the investigation of school connectedness as a protective factor for adolescent injury, and the development of school connectedness as a component of an injury prevention program. To date, school-based risk taking and injury prevention has frequently been limited to addressing adolescents' knowledge and attitudes to risk behaviours, and has largely overlooked the importance of the wider school social context as a protective factor in adolescent development. Additionally, school connectedness has been primarily studied in terms of its impact on student achievement, wellbeing and risk taking behaviour, and research has not yet addressed possible links with injury. Further, school connectedness intervention programs have targeted risk taking behaviours without evaluating their potential impact on injury outcomes. This is the first reported research to develop strategies to increase school connectedness as part of a school-based injury prevention program. The research program was conceptualised as three distinct stages. The development of these research stages was informed by a comprehensive review of the literature on adolescent risk taking, injury and school-based prevention, as well as on school connectedness and its importance in adolescence. A review of the school connectedness literature indicated that students' connectedness is largely influenced by relationships within the school context including with teachers and other school staff, and is therefore a potentially modifiable factor that may be targeted in school-based programs. Overall, the literature shows school connectedness to be a key protective factor in adolescent development. This review established a foundation from which the current program of research was designed. The first stage of the research involved an empirical investigation of the relationship between adolescent risk taking-related injuries and school connectedness. Stage one incorporated two studies. The first involved the development of a measure of adolescent injury, the Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC), for use in the current research as well as in future school-based studies and program evaluation. The results of this study also highlighted the extent of the problem of risk-related injury in adolescence. The second study in Stage one examined the relationship between students' reports of school connectedness, risk taking behaviour and risk taking-related injuries on the E-AIC. The results of this study showed significant relationships between increased school connectedness and reduced reported engagement in transport and violence risk taking, and fewer associated injuries. This study therefore suggested the potential for school-based injury prevention programs to incorporate strategies targeting increased adolescent connectedness to school. The second stage of this research involved the compilation of an evidence base to inform the design of a school connectedness intervention. Stage two also incorporated two studies. The first study in Stage two involved a systematic review of programs that have targeted school connectedness for reduced risk taking and injury. The results of this study revealed that interventions targeting school connectedness can be effective in reducing adolescent risk taking behaviour, and also provided an evidence base for the design of the current school connectedness intervention. The second study in Stage two examined teachers' understanding and perceptions of school connectedness. This qualitative study indicated that teachers consider students' connectedness to be an important factor that relates to their risk taking behaviour; and also provided directions and content for the intervention design stage. The third stage of this research built upon the findings of each of the previous studies, and involved the design, implementation and evaluation of a school connectedness intervention as a component of an adolescent injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY). This connectedness intervention was designed as a professional development workshop for teachers of 13 to 14 year old adolescents, and was developed as a complementary component to the curriculum-based SPIY program. The SPIY connectedness component was implemented and evaluated using process and six-month impact evaluation methodologies. The results of this study revealed that teachers saw value in the program and made use of the strategies presented, and that program school students' self-reported violence risk behaviour was reduced at six-month follow-up. Despite these promising findings, the results of this study did not demonstrate a significant impact of the program on change in students' connectedness to school, relative to comparison schools. The positive impact on self-reported violence risk behaviour was however replicated in additional analyses comparing students participating in the connectedness version of SPIY with students participating in an earlier curriculumonly version of the program. This finding indicated that the connectedness component has additional benefits relating to reduction in violence risks, over and above a curriculum-only version of the program. This research was the first reported to address the relationship between school connectedness and adolescent injury outcomes, and to develop school connectedness as a component of an adolescent injury prevention program. Overall, the results of this program of research have demonstrated the importance of incorporating strategies targeting the wider school social context, including school connectedness, in adolescent injury prevention programs. This research has important implications for future research and practice in adolescent injury prevention.

The increased risks of death and extra lengths of hospital and ICU stay from hospital-acquired bloodstream infections : a case-control study

Objectives Hospital-acquired bloodstream infections are known to increase the risk of death and prolong hospital stay, but precise estimates of these two important outcomes from well-designed studies are rare, particularly for non-intensive care unit (ICU) patients. We aimed to calculate accurate estimates, which are vital for estimating the economic costs of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections.

Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

Synthesis of complementary RNA by RNA-dependent RNA polymerases in plant extracts is independent of an RNA primer

RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RDR) activities were readily detected in extracts from cauliflower and broccoli florets, Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh callus tissue and broccoli nuclei. The synthesis of complementary RNA (cRNA) was independent of a RNA primer, whether or not the primer contained a 3′ terminal 2′-O-methyl group or was phosphorylated at the 5′ terminus. cRNA synthesis in plant extracts was not affected by loss-of-function mutations in the DICER-LIKE (DCL) proteins DCL2, DCL3, and DCL4, indicating that RDRs function independently of these DCL proteins. A loss-of-function mutation in RDR1, RDR2 or RDR6 did not significantly reduce the amount of cRNA synthesis. This indicates that these RDRs did not account for the bulk RDR activities in plant extracts, and suggest that either the individual RDRs each contribute a fraction of polymerase activity or another RDR(s) is predominant in the plant extract. © CSIRO 2008.

Risks for HIV infection among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Risks for HIV infection remain unknown in male street laborers. This research investigates patterns of self-reported risk behaviors among these men in urban Vietnam. In a cross-sectional survey using a social mapping technique, 450 men, mostly low-skilled and unregistered migrant laborers across 13 districts in Hanoi were approached for interviews. The study revealed that male street laborers were at high risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV. One in every 12 men reported homosexual or bisexual behavior. These men on average had three sexual partners within the preceding year, and condom use was inconsistent. Close to 95 % of the men had reported sexual encounters with regular partners. One-third with commercial sex workers (CSW) and 24.2 % with casual partners, but just under one-third had ever used condoms with regular partners and CSWs and very few (17.6 %) with casual partners at their last sexual encounter. 17.11 % used illicit drugs sometimes, with 66.7 % of them frequently sharing injecting equipment with peers. These men had limited HIV knowledge; 51.4 % incorrectly believed that, once you trust your partner, you no longer need to use condoms and 42.4 % believed that you can tell by looking at someone if they have HIV. Access to HIV prevention was also limited; only 19.8 % of men had been tested for HIV during the previous 12 months, almost 10 % of whom neither returned for the result nor knew their HIV status. The study provides interesting directions for future research and suggests ways to effectively design prevention strategies for these men.

'Water view' from cyberspace : building resilient communities by identifying water risks

The perceived desirability of water views continues to lead to increasing numbers relocating to coastal regions. Proximity to coastal water brings with it unique risks from rising sea levels; however, water can present a risk in any area, whether or not you have water views. Recent Australian and international disasters show that even inland populations not located in traditional flood areas are not immune from water risks. The author examines the nature of these risks and shows how the internet can be used as a tool in identifying risk areas. The author also highlights the need to ensure accuracy of the data for valuation and planning purposes and identifies flaws in the current data provision.

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Cloud computing adoption in Australia : the benefits, risks and implications for accounting

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the state of cloud computing adoption in Australia. I specifically focus on the drivers, risks, and benefits of cloud computing from the perspective of IT experts and forensic accountants. I use thematic analysis of interview data to answer the research questions of the study. The findings suggest that cloud computing is increasingly gaining foothold in many sectors due to its advantages such as flexibility and the speed of deployment. However, security remains an issue and therefore its adoption is likely to be selective and phased. Of particular concern are the involvement of third parties and foreign jurisdictions, which in the event of damage may complicate litigation and forensic investigations. This is one of the first empirical studies that reports on cloud computing adoption and experiences in Australia.

Liability in negligence and the failure to disclose multiple risks in surgery : I would have been willing to run the risk

It has been 21 years since the decision in Rogers v Whitaker and the legal principles concerning informed consent and liability for negligence are still strongly grounded in this landmark High Court decision. This paper considers more recent developments in the law concerning the failure to disclose inherent risks in medical procedures, focusing on the decision in Wallace v Kam [2013] HCA 19. In this case, the appellant underwent a surgical procedure that carried a number of risks. The surgery itself was not performed in a sub-standard way, but the surgeon failed to disclose two risks to the patient, a failure that constituted a breach of the surgeon’s duty of care in negligence. One of the undisclosed risks was considered to be less serious than the other, and this lesser risk eventuated causing injury to the appellant. The more serious risk did not eventuate, but the appellant argued that if the more serious risk had been disclosed, he would have avoided his injuries completely because he would have refused to undergo the procedure. Liability was disputed by the surgeon, with particular reference to causation principles. The High Court of Australia held that the appellant should not be compensated for harm that resulted from a risk he would have been willing to run. We examine the policy reasons underpinning the law of negligence in this specific context and consider some of the issues raised by this unusual case. We question whether some of the judicial reasoning adopted in this case, represents a significant shift in traditional causation principles.

Review: "Planning Asian cities : risks and resilience" edited by Stephen Hamnett and Dean Forbes, Planning, History and Environment Series, London, Routledge, 2011

Since the beginning of the agricultural revolution, cities have always been the cradle of civilisation, innovation and productivity, particularly as a result of the recent change factors affecting their (trans)formation, such as globalisation, the knowledge economy, technological advancements, climate change and so on. While in some parts of the world, cities are rapidly growing, in other parts, cities are shrinking, and their populations are aging. Even under the current pressure of constantly changing global conditions, the role of cities in influencing and partially shaping local, regional, national, supranational and even global level economy, society, environment and governance is undeniable. Global changes, while providing opportunities for cities and their administrations to reform and revisit existing planning and development processes and mechanisms, at the same time, challenge them by dealing with everincreasing risks and establishing resilience. At present, more than half of the world’s population...

Audit fees and asset securitization risks

The thesis investigates “where were the auditors in asset securitizations”, a criticism of the audit profession before and after the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Asset securitizations increase audit complexity and audit risks, which are expected to increase audit fees. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2009, this study examines the association between asset securitization risks and audit fees, and its changes during the global financial crisis. The main test is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which is adapted from the Fields et al. (2004) bank audit fee model. I employ a principal components analysis to address high correlations among asset securitization risks. Individual securitization risks are also separately tested. A suite of sensitivity tests indicate the results are robust. These include model alterations, sample variations, further controls in the tests, and correcting for the securitizer self-selection problem. A partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology is introduced as a separate test, which allows for high intercorrelations, self-selection correction, and sequential order hypotheses in one simultaneous model. The PLS results are consistent with the main results. The study finds significant and positive associations between securitization risks and audit fees. After the commencement of the global financial crisis in 2007, there was an increased focus on the role of audits on asset securitization risks resulting from bank failures; therefore I expect that auditors would become more sensitive to bank asset securitization risks after the commencement of the crisis. I find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks during the crisis and that auditors appear to charge a GFC premium for banks. Overall, the results support the view that auditors consider asset securitization risks and market changes, and adjust their audit effort and risk considerations accordingly.

Benefits and risks of large hydrostatic recesses in hydroelectric turbine thrust bearings

Operators of hydroelectric power stations sometimes call upon engineers to modify existing hydroelectric turbines, usually several decades old, for improved maintainability and reliability. One common modification is the hybridisation of plain thrust pads to allow hydrostatic operation to reduce the risk of bearing wipe at low speed (virtually all new installations benefit from this feature). A modification such as this is not a difficult undertaking; however, there are numerous factors that need to be considered in order to maximize bearing performance. One factor that stands out above the others is whether the thrust bearing should be designed to lift the turbine immediately from the standing condition, which presents an interesting challenge: the recess has to have a sufficiently large area in order for the supply pressure to be able to overcome the dead weight of the turbine. If the combination of groove area and pressure is insufficient, then lifting is neither immediate nor guaranteed. This need not be a significant problem, as the bearings have exhibited adequate performance even in the absence of a hydrostatic lubricant supply. A case study is presented whereby relatively large hydrostatic recesses are added to the pads of thrust bearing. It is demonstrated with the aid of simple numerical modelling that the impact of the recess relative to the original pad is small under normal operating conditions. Most surprising, however, is that significant reductions in average oil film temperature and power dissipation are predicted.