Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

Sedation breaks : are they good for the critically ill patient? A review.

Background:  Tradition has led us to believe that a heavily sedated patient is a comfortable, settled, compliant patient for whom sedation will improve outcome. The current move witnessed in clinical practice today of limiting sedation has led health care in recent years to question the benefit and necessity of routine, continuous sedation for all patients requiring mechanical ventilation. However, as a result there has been a rise in the amount of agitation being reported as being experienced by patients with the daily withdrawal of sedation. Aims:  The purpose of this paper is to review current arguments for and against perserving with agitation versus re-sedating, when it presents during the daily sedation breaks. Findings:  Of the literature reviewed, the question to re-sedate the mechanically ventilated agitated patient during sedation breaks remains an issue of contention. Although there is evidence focusing on the psychological effects of long-term sedation and sedation breaks specifically, the complex nature of critical illness in some cases means that individualized care is of paramount importance and in-depth assessment is crucial when deciding to re-sedate in the face of undetermined agitation. Agitation has been closely linked with several incidents that can be detrimental to patient safety, such as removal of lines and unplanned self-extubation. Conclusion:  The recommendations of this review are that nurses should re-commence sedation if the patient becomes agitated following a sedation break. Aims:  The purpose of this paper is to review current arguments for and against perserving with agitation versus re-sedating, when it presents during the daily sedation breaks. Findings:  Of the literature reviewed, the question to re-sedate the mechanically ventilated agitated patient during sedation breaks remains an issue of contention. Although there is evidence focusing on the psychological effects of long-term sedation and sedation breaks specifically, the complex nature of critical illness in some cases means that individualized care is of paramount importance and in-depth assessment is crucial when deciding to re-sedate in the face of undetermined agitation. Agitation has been closely linked with several incidents that can be detrimental to patient safety, such as removal of lines and unplanned self-extubation. Conclusion:  The recommendations of this review are that nurses should re-commence sedation if the patient becomes agitated following a sedation break.

Managing creativity on the margins : a comparative study of Beijing’s Songzhuang Art District and Hangzhou’s White Horse Lake Creative Eco-City

In the past decade the ‘creative cluster’ has become a driver of urban renewal in China. Many cluster developments attract human capital and investment to post-industrial spaces. This paper looks at two developments which are more post-agricultural than post-industrial: the first is Songzhuang, a large scale contemporary art community situated on the eastern fringe of Beijing, the second is Hangzhou’s White Horse Lake Creative Eco-City, a ‘mixed variety’ cluster model which integrates elements of art, fashion, design and animation. The common factor in both cases is how they came into existence. In both districts urban creative workers moved into a rural environment. Drawing on interviews with planners, officials, and residents we investigate the challenges of sustaining such fringe clusters.

Practice and procedure - District Court Act 1967 s79 - transfer of proceeding pending in Magistrates Court to District Court

In Lambert v Surplice [2004] QDC 092 McGill DCJ considered the extent to which the court should exercise a discretion on an application under s79 of the District Court Act 1967 to transfer a proceeding pending in the Magistrates Court to the District Court.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

Exploring diarrhoea, enteral nutrition and intestinal microbial flora relationships in critically ill patients

Diarrhoea is a common complication observed in critically ill patients. Relationships between diarrhoea, enteral nutrition and aerobic intestinal microflora have been disconnectedly examined in this patient cohort. This research used a two-study, observational design to examine these associations. Higher diarrhoea incidence rates were observed when patients received enteral tube feeding, had abnormal serum blood results, received multiple medications and had aerobic microflora dysbiosis. Further, significant aerobic intestinal microflora changes were observed over time in patients who experienced diarrhoea. These results establish a platform for further work to improve the intestinal health of critically ill patients.

A space for spirituality : Dutton Park Community House. Kuril dhagun, State Library of Queensland

A Space for Spirituality: Dutton Park Community House Exhibition of QUT Student Design Work for Murri Watch Men’s Shed, Dutton Park. As designers it is important to work with communities to develop inclusive spaces and be mindful of the diversity of cultures, histories and indeed spirituality. This exhibition includes a selection of proposals from QUT Interior Design students for the adaptation of the Murri Watch Men’s Shed, Dutton Park. The designs respond to local community narratives and environmental qualities, such as site texture, landscape and light to propose a dwelling space for spirituality and gathering.

Explore Darwin and Litchfield National Park in the Northern Territory

The city as it now stands marks the fifth attempt at a settlement in the north. Fearful of Dutch territorial claims, the British were sure they had to establish a permanent base, and acted quickly to get one started. They had more than a little trouble getting one to work...

Subtropical futures : Victoria Park re-imagined

Brisbane, the capital of Queensland, in South-East Queensland is situated on the Brisbane River, one of the largest rivers (and floodplains) on the east coast of Australia. The river defines the city and gives it its name. The river has been a natural place to accommodate some population growth for the city with high-density development that capitalises on the natural amenity, cycleways and a string of parks and the flatter land. The major floods of 2011 and the scare of 2013, has seen a more malevolent quality of the river and shift of thinking on its role within the city. The floods have made council, for the first time, acquire prime development sites near the river, with proposals for high density development and made them parks, at great cost. The pressure for population growth in Brisbane remains. 140,000 new dwellings are required by 2031. Brownfield sites are less plentiful and there is interest to rethink of some of the other strategic locations in the city away from the river on higher ground and steeper slopes. Some of these places are currently open spaces. Victoria Park Golf Course sits on a high ridge line and a very strategic part of the city just north of the city centre is one of the few remaining golf courses close to the centre of an Australian capital city. While it is a public course and a valuable community asset, it has been compromised by the recently completed northern busway with two bus stations constructed on its edges. It is bounded on the west and north-east by two major community facilities, the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to the west and RBW Hospital at its northern end. In a city in need of urban consolidation, perhaps it is time to review the future of the golf course. This question has been investigated as a conjecture in the Master of Architecture program at the QUT. The project has been to re-imagine Victoria Park as a new city parkland and a place that makes an urban connection from the QUT to the hospital. This new urban precinct is be a medium to high-density transit oriented development that capitalises on the bus way stations and the proximity of the university and hospital. The precinct will frame/define/interact with the new major urban park for the city. A key question being addressed is how the design can embody and define principles of a subtropical urbanism. Students are identifying the appropriate street and block structure, density and built form to be accommodated on blocks that define and activate a rich sequence of streets and public spaces. The paper will present a critical overview of the project work that provides a lens to how future professionals may respond to these issue that will be the focus of their professional lives.

Alarm setting for the critically ill patient : A descriptive pilot survey of nurses’ perceptions of current practice in an Australian Regional Critical Care Unit

Aim: The aim of this survey was to assess registered nurse’s perceptions of alarm setting and management in an Australian Regional Critical Care Unit. Background: The setting and management of alarms within the critical care environment is one of the key responsibilities of the nurse in this area. However, with up to 99% of alarms potentially being false-positives it is easy for the nurse to become desensitised or fatigued by incessant alarms; in some cases up to 400 per patient per day. Inadvertently ignoring, silencing or disabling alarms can have deleterious implications for the patient and nurse. Method: A total population sample of 48 nursing staff from a 13 bedded ICU/HDU/CCU within regional Australia were asked to participate. A 10 item open-ended and multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to determine their perceptions and attitudes of alarm setting and management within this clinical area. Results: Two key themes were identified from the open-ended questions: attitudes towards inappropriate alarm settings and annoyance at delayed responses to alarms. A significant number of respondents (93%) agreed that alarm fatigue can result in alarm desensitisation and the disabling of alarms, whilst 81% suggested the key factors are those associated with false-positive alarms and inappropriately set alarms.

Diminishing effects of perceived fit on vertical extensions

A common finding in brand extension literature is that extension’s favorability is a function of the perceived fit between the parent brand and its extension (Aaker and Keller 1990; Park, Milberg, and Lawson 1991; Volckner and Sattler 2006) that is partially mediated by perceptions of risk (Milberg, Sinn, and Goodstein 2010; Smith and Andrews 1995). In other words, as fit between the parent brand and its extension increases, parent brand beliefs become more readily available, thus increasing consumer certainty and confidence about the new extension, which results in more positive evaluations. On the other hand, as perceived fit decreases, consumer certainty about the parent brand’s ability to introduce the extension is reduced, leading to more negative evaluations. Building on the notion that perceived fit of vertical line extensions is a function of the price/quality distance between parent brand and its extension (Lei, de Ruyter, and Wetzels 2008), traditional brand extension knowledge predicts a directionally consistent impact of perceived fit on evaluations of vertical extensions. Hence, vertical (upscale or downscale) extensions that are placed closer to the parent brand in the price/quality spectrum should lead to higher favorability ratings compared to more distant ones.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

The effects of parental illness and other ill family members on youth caregiving experiences

Informed by a model of family role-redistribution derived from the Family Ecology Framework (Pedersen & Revenson, 2005), this study examined differences in two proposed psychological components of role-redistribution (youth caregiving experiences and responsibilities) between youth of a parent with illness and their peers from ‘healthy’ families controlling for the effects of whether a parent is ill or some other family member, illness type, and demographics. Based on self-report questionnaire data, four groups of Australian children were derived from a community sample of 2474youth (‘healthy’ family, n=1768; parental illness, n=336; other family member illness, n=254; both parental and other family member illness, n=116). The presence of any family member with a serious illness is associated with an intensification of youth caregiving experiences relative to peers from healthy families. This risk is elevated if the ill family member is a parent, if more illnesses are present, and by certain youth and family demographics, and especially by higher caregiving responsibilities. The presence of a family member, particularly a parent, with a serious medical condition has pervasive increased effects on youth caregiving compared to healthy families, and these effects are not fully accounted for by illness type, demographics or caregiving responsibilities.