176 resultados para Baxter-King, ciclos económicos, tendencia, Hodrick-Prescott, series.


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In order to make good decisions about the design of information systems, an essential skill is to understand process models of the business domain the system is intended to support. Yet, little knowledge to date has been established about the factors that affect how model users comprehend the content of process models. In this study, we use theories of semiotics and cognitive load to theorize how model and personal factors influence how model viewers comprehend the syntactical information of process models. We then report on a four-part series of experiments, in which we examined these factors. Our results show that additional semantical information impedes syntax comprehension, and that theoretical knowledge eases syntax comprehension. Modeling experience further contributes positively to comprehension efficiency, measured as the ratio of correct answers to the time taken to provide answers. We discuss implications for practice and research.

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In natural waterways and estuaries, the understanding of turbulent mixing is critical to the knowledge of sediment transport, stormwater runoff during flood events, and release of nutrient-rich wastewater into ecosystems. In the present study, some field measurements were conducted in a small subtropical estuary with micro-tidal range and semi-diurnal tides during king tide conditions: i. e., the tidal range was the largest for both 2009 and 2010. The turbulent velocity measurements were performed continuously at high-frequency (50Hz) for 60 h. Two acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) were sampled simultaneously in the middle estuarine zone, and a third ADV was deployed in the upper estuary for 12 h only. The results provided an unique characterisation of the turbulence in both middle and upper estuarine zones under the king tide conditions. The present observations showed some marked differences between king tide and neap tide conditions. During the king tide conditions, the tidal forcing was the dominant water exchange and circulation mechanism in the estuary. In contrast, the long-term oscillations linked with internal and external resonance played a major role in the turbulent mixing during neap tides. The data set showed further that the upper estuarine zone was drastically less affected by the spring tide range: the flow motion remained slow, but the turbulent velocity data were affected by the propagation of a transient front during the very early flood tide motion at the sampling site. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

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ABSTRACT Objectives: To investigate the effect of hot and cold temperatures on ambulance attendances. Design: An ecological time series study. Setting and participants: The study was conducted in Brisbane, Australia. We collected information on 783 935 daily ambulance attendances, along with data of associated meteorological variables and air pollutants, for the period of 2000–2007. Outcome measures: The total number of ambulance attendances was examined, along with those related to cardiovascular, respiratory and other non-traumatic conditions. Generalised additive models were used to assess the relationship between daily mean temperature and the number of ambulance attendances. Results: There were statistically significant relationships between mean temperature and ambulance attendances for all categories. Acute heat effects were found with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.86%, 1.48%) increase in total attendances for 1 °C increase above threshold (0–1 days lag). Cold effects were delayed and longer lasting with a 1.30% (0.87%, 1.73%) increase in total attendances for a 1 °C decrease below the threshold (2–15 days lag). Harvesting was observed following initial acute periods of heat effects, but not for cold effects. Conclusions: This study shows that both hot and cold temperatures led to increases in ambulance attendances for different medical conditions. Our findings support the notion that ambulance attendance records are a valid and timely source of data for use in the development of local weather/health early warning systems.

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To cover wide range of pulsed power applications, this paper proposes a modularity concept to improve the performance and flexibility of the pulsed power supply. The proposed scheme utilizes the advantage of parallel and series configurations of flyback modules in obtaining high-voltage levels with fast rise time (dv/dt). Prototypes were implemented using 600-V insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) switches to generate up to 4-kV output pulses with 1-kHz repetition rate for experimentation. To assess the proposed modular approach for higher number of the modules, prototypes were implemented using 1700-V IGBTs switches, based on ten-series modules, and tested up to 20 kV. Conducted experimental results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method

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The return of emotions to debates about crime and criminal justice has been a striking development of recent decades across many jurisdictions. This has been registered in the return of shame to justice procedures, a heightened focus on victims and their emotional needs, fear of crime as a major preoccupation of citizens and politicians, and highly emotionalised public discourses on crime and justice. But how can we best make sense of these developments? Do we need to create "emotionally intelligent" justice systems, or are we messing recklessly with the rational foundations of liberal criminal justice? This volume brings together leading criminologists and sociologists from across the world in a much needed conversation about how to re-calibrate reason and emotion in crime and justice today. The contributions range from the micro-analysis of emotions in violent encounters to the paradoxes and tensions that arise from the emotionalisation of criminal justice in the public sphere. They explore the emotional labour of workers in police and penal institutions, the justice experiences of victims and offenders, and the role of vengeance, forgiveness and regret in the aftermath of violence and conflict resolution. The result is a set of original essays which offer a fresh and timely perspective on problems of crime and justice in contemporary liberal democracies.

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In little more than a decade, Green Criminology has become an established new perspective in the field. It embraces an exciting and wide range of topics, from controversies about genetic modification through corporate offending against the environment and human communities, to animal abuse. Green Criminology provides a focal point for longstanding and new areas of research as well as making important interdisciplinary connections.

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Aim: The aim of this pilot study is to describe the use of an Emergency Department (ED) at a large metropolitan teaching hospital by patients who speak English or other languages at home. Methods: All data were retrieved from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) of this tertiary teaching hospital in Brisbane. Patients were divided into two groups based on the language spoken at home: patients who speak English only at home (SEO) and patients who do not speak English only or speak other language at home (NSEO). Modes of arrival, length of ED stay and the proportion of hospital admission were compared among the two groups of patients by using SPSS V18 software. Results: A total of 69,494 patients visited this hospital ED in 2009 with 67,727 (97.5%) being in the SEO group and 1,281 (1.80%) in the NSEO group. The proportion of ambulance utilisation in arrival mode was significantly higher among SEO 23,172 (34.2%) than NSEO 397 (31.0%), p <0.05. The NSEO patients had longer length of stay in the ED (M = 337.21, SD = 285.9) compared to SEO patients (M= 290.9, SD = 266.8), with 46.3 minutes (95%CI 62.1, 30.5, p <0.001) difference. The admission to the hospital among NSEO was 402 (31.9%) higher than SEO 17,652 (26.6%), p <0.001. Conclusion: The lower utilisation rates of ambulance services, longer length of ED stay and higher hospital admission rates in NSEO patients compared to SEO patients are consistent with other international studies and may be due to the language barriers.

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In 2008 the introduction of the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN), combined with the publication of the international comparative analyses of student achievement data (such as the Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) of the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA)) highlighted a significant priority for Australian education by identifying low levels of equity.

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Study Design. Analysis of a case series of 24 Lenke 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients receiving selective thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction. Objective. To report the behaviour of the compensatory lumbar curve in a group of Lenke IC AIS patients following thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction, and to compare the results of this study with previously published data. Summary of Background Data. Several prior studies have reported spontaneous lumbar curve correction for both anterior and posterior selective fusion in Lenke 1C/King-Moe II patients; however to our knowledge no previous studies have reported outcomes of thoracoscopic anterior correction for this curve type. Methods. All AIS patients with a curve classification of Lenke 1C and a minimum of 24 months follow-up were retrieved from a consecutive series of 190 AIS patients who underwent thoracoscopic anterior instrumented fusion. Cobb angles of the major curve, instrumented levels, compensatory lumbar curve, and T5-T12 kyphosis were recorded, as well as coronal spinal balance, T1 tilt angle and shoulder balance. All radiographic parameters were measured before surgery and at 2, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. Results. Twenty-four female patients with right thoracic curves had a mean thoracic Cobb angle of 53.0° before surgery, decreasing to 24.9° two years after surgery. The mean lumbar compensatory Cobb angle was 43.5° before surgery, spontaneously correcting to 25.4° two years after surgery, indicating balance between the thoracic and lumbar scoliotic curves. The lumbar correction achieved (41.8%) compares favourably to previous studies. Conclusions. Selective thoracoscopic anterior fusion allows spontaneous lumbar curve correction and achieves coronal balance of main thoracic and compensatory lumbar curves, good cosmesis and patient satisfaction. Correction and balance are maintained 24 months after surgery.

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Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

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This elicitation study was designed to explore salient behavioural, normative, and control beliefs in accordance with the Theory Planned Behaviour (TPB) and in relation to drivers’ speeding behaviour in school zones. The study also explored mindfulness and habit as additional constructs in the TPB framework. The aim of this study was to identify those beliefs which influenced drivers’ speeding behaviour in school zones and thus gain greater insight into the motivating factors underpinning the behaviour which may inform interventions to reduce this behaviour. Seventeen Australian drivers participated in one of a series of focus group discussions. Overall, conceptual content analysis revealed some similar issues across the groups. In particular, highlighting the influence of behavioural and normative beliefs, there was much agreement that there were no real advantages to speeding in school zones with the behaviour considered dangerous and unacceptable and likely to also be regarded as such by important others. In addition, given the public concern about safety of school children, acknowledgment of such concern represented an important factor discouraging one’s likelihood of engaging in speeding in school zones (i.e., complying with the school zone speed limit). However, despite normative support not to speed, and the need to ensure children’s safety as an important factor discouraging speeding, the study also found that there was a tendency for drivers to report unintentionally speeding in a school zone. Instances of unintentional speeding were reported as occurring due to several reasons including a driver’s current affective state (e.g., more likely to speed in a school zone if they were in a bad mood), the extent to which they were familiar with the environment (i.e., more likely to drive mindlessly – on ‘autopilot’ - in more familiar contexts) and when feeling fatigued. The theoretical implications of including mindfulness and habit with TPB constructs and the practical implications in terms of suggested interventions are discussed.

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This paper presents a maintenance optimisation method for a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals. The objective function considered in the paper is the average revenue per unit time calculated based on the semi-regenerative theory and the universal generating function (UGF). A new algorithm using the stochastic ordering is also developed in this paper to reduce the search space of maintenance strategies and to enhance the efficiency of optimisation algorithms. A numerical simulation is presented in the study to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed maintenance strategy and optimisation algorithms. The simulation result reveals that maintenance strategies with opportunistic maintenance and state-dependent inspection intervals are more cost-effective when the influence of economic dependence and inspection cost is significant. The study further demonstrates that the optimisation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency than the commonly employed heuristic algorithms.