Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The story of … the top hat

Throughout the 19th century, the top hat was a mainstay of Victorian life: a man in a topper was well-to-do, respectable, a man of industry. But now the top hat is only a caricature of the upper class privilege it once represented. Its history traces a line through dandies, beavers, silk, and madness...

Loci affecting gamma-glutamyl transferase in adults and adolescents show age x SNP interaction and cardiometabolic disease associations

Serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activity is a marker of liver disease which is also prospectively associated with the risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and cancers. We have discovered novel loci affecting GGT in a genome-wide association study (rs1497406 in an intergenic region of chromosome 1, P = 3.9 x 10(-8); rs944002 in C14orf73 on chromosome 14, P = 4.7 x 10(-13); rs340005 in RORA on chromosome 15, P = 2.4 x 10(-8)), and a highly significant heterogeneity between adult and adolescent results at the GGT1 locus on chromosome 22 (maximum P(HET) = 5.6 x 10(-12) at rs6519520). Pathway analysis of significant and suggestive single-nucleotide polymorphism associations showed significant overlap between genes affecting GGT and those affecting common metabolic and inflammatory diseases, and identified the hepatic nuclear factor (HNF) family as controllers of a network of genes affecting GGT. Our results reinforce the disease associations of GGT and demonstrate that control by the GGT1 locus varies with age.

Shrinking Violets

Description of the work Shrinking Violets is comprised of two half scale garments in laser cut silk organza, developed with a knotting device to allow for disassembly and reassembly. The first is a jacket in layered red organza including black storm flap details. The second is a vest in jade organza with circles of pink organza attached through a pattern of knots. Research Background This practice-led fashion design research sits within the field of Design for Sustainability (DfS) in fashion that seeks to mitigate the environmental and ethical impacts of fashion consumption and production. The research explores new systems of garment construction for DfS, and examines how these systems may involve ‘designing’ new user interactions with the garments. The garments’ construction system allows them to be disassembled and recycled or reassembled by users to form a new garment. Conventional garment design follows a set process of cutting and construction, with pattern pieces permanently machine-stitched together. Garments typically contain multiple fibre types; for example a jacket may be constructed from a shell of wool/polyester, an acetate lining, fusible interlinings, and plastic buttons. These complex inputs mean that textile recycling is highly labour intensive, first to separate the garment pieces and second to sort the multiple fibre types. This difficulty results in poor quality ‘shoddy’ comprised of many fibre types and unsuitable for new apparel, or in large quantities of recyclable textile waste sent to landfill (Hawley 2011). Design-led approaches that consider the garment’s end of life in the design process are a way of addressing this problem. In Gulich’s (2006) analysis, use of single materials is the most effective way to ensure ease of recycling, with multiple materials that can be detached next in effectiveness. Given the low rate of technological innovation in most apparel manufacturing (Ruiz 2011), a challenge for effective recycling is how to develop new manufacturing methods that allow for garments to be more easily disassembled at end-of-life. Research Contribution This project addresses the research question: How can design for disassembly be considered within the fashion design process? I have employed a practice-led methodology in which my design process leads the research, making use of methods of fashion design practice including garment and construction research, fabric and colour research, textile experimentation, drape, patternmaking, and illustration as well as more recent methods such as laser cutting. Interrogating the traditional approaches to garment construction is necessarily a technical process; however fashion design is as much about the aesthetic and desirability of a garment as it is about the garment’s pragmatics or utility. This requires a balance between the technical demands of designing for disassembly with the aesthetic demands of fashion. This led to the selection of luxurious, semi-transparent fabrics in bold floral colours that could be layered to create multiple visual effects, as well as the experimentation with laser cutting for new forms of finishing and fastening the fabrics together. Shrinking Violets makes two contributions to new knowledge in the area of design for sustainability within fashion. The first is in the technical development of apparel modularity through the system of laser cut holes and knots that also become a patterning device. The second contribution lies in the design of a system for users to engage with the garment through its ability to be easily reconstructed into a new form. Research Significance Shrinking Violets was exhibited at the State Library of Queensland’s Asia Pacific Design Library, 1-5 November 2015, as part of The International Association of Societies of Design Research’s (IASDR) biannual design conference. The work was chosen for display by a panel of experts, based on the criteria of design innovation and contribution to new knowledge in design. References Gulich, B. (2006). Designing textile products that are easy to recycle. In Y. Wang (Ed.), Recycling in Textiles (pp. 25-37). London: Woodhead. Hawley, J. M. (2011). Textile recycling options: exploring what could be. In A. Gwilt & T. Rissanen (Eds.), Shaping Sustainable Fashion: Changing the way we make and use clothes (pp. 143 - 155). London: Earthscan. Ruiz, B. (2014). Global Apparel Manufacturing. Retrieved 10 August 2014, from http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/gl/industry/default.aspx?entid=470

Garden of Shrinking Violets

Description of the work Garden of Shrinking Violets is a collection of six half scale garments and three illustrations, continuing the practice-led research project into design for disassembly, developed in the work Shrinking Violets (2015). All garments are constructed in laser cut modules that enable the items to be reassembled in new combinations. The project extended the materials used to include ahimsa (peace) silk, silk organza and silk twill. The pattern pieces have internal laser cut grids of 5mm circles, allowing the textiles to be layered, threaded and knotted to achieve rich embellished surfaces that play with the transparencies and colour overlays of the sheer and opaque silks. Research Background Conceptually grounded in design for sustainability, the aim of the work is to develop approaches to garment construction that could allow users to engage with the garments by adding, removing and reconfiguring elements. This approach to design considers the use and end-of-life phases of the transient fashion garment through considering how the garments can be later disassembled. Research Contribution This construction process is unique in being not only a patterning device but also integral to the garment’s construction. This work sits at the intersection of technical design and craft: the laser cutting and technical approach to developing new forms of garment construction is coupled with the artisanal approach of hand-knotting, a reference to traditional quilting techniques, as a method to layer and pattern the textiles. The technique developed in Shrinking Violets was extended to experiment with different grid structures, knotting devices, and decorative fringing. The result is a proposed construction system in which the laser cut grid and knotting form a decorative patterning device, but are also integral to the garments’ construction. Research Significance Garden of Shrinking Violets was exhibited at artisan gallery’s Ivory Street window, Brisbane, January 18 – February 28 2016. The work was selected by artisan gallery exhibition curators. As part of artisan gallery’s public programming, the author participated in a panel discussion: ‘Constructive conversations: deconstruction and reconstruction in contemporary craft and design’ with jeweller Elizabeth Shaw and visual arts lecturer Courtney Pedersen, 20 February 2016. Photography used in illustrations by Jonathan Rae

IASDR 2015 Interplay Exhibition 2-5 NOV 2015

It has been said that we are living in a golden age of innovation. New products, systems and services aimed to enable a better future, have emerged from novel interconnections between design and design research with science, technology and the arts. These intersections are now, more than ever, catalysts that enrich daily activities for health and safety, education, personal computing, entertainment and sustainability, to name a few. Interactive functions made possible by new materials, technology, and emerging manufacturing solutions demonstrate an ongoing interplay between cross-disciplinary knowledge and research. Such interactive interplay bring up questions concerning: (i) how art and design provide a focus for developing design solutions and research in technology; (ii) how theories emerging from the interactions of cross-disciplinary knowledge inform both the practice and research of design and (iii) how research and design work together in a mutually beneficial way. The IASDR2015 INTERPLAY EXHIBITION provides some examples of these interconnections of design research with science, technology and the arts. This is done through the presentation of objects, artefacts and demonstrations that are contextualised into everyday activities across various areas including health, education, safety, furniture, fashion and wearable design. The exhibits provide a setting to explore the various ways in which design research interacts across discipline knowledge and approaches to stimulate innovation. In education, Designing South African Children’s Health Education as Generative Play (A Bennett, F Cassim, M van der Merwe, K van Zijil, and M Ribbens) presents a set of toolkits that resulted from design research entailing generative play. The toolkits are systems that engender pleasure and responsibility, and are aimed at cultivating South African’s youth awareness of nutrition, hygiene, disease awareness and prevention, and social health. In safety, AVAnav: Avalanche Rescue Helmet (Jason Germany) delivers an interactive system as a tool to contribute to reduce the time to locate buried avalanche victims. Helmet-mounted this system responds to the contextual needs of rescuers and has since led to further design research on the interface design of rescuing devices. In apparel design and manufacturing, Shrinking Violets: Fashion design for disassembly (Alice Payne) proposes a design for disassembly through the use of beautiful reversible mono-material garments that interactively responds to the challenges of garment construction in the fashion industry, capturing the metaphor for the interplay between technology and craft in the fashion manufacturing industry. Harvest: A biotextile future (Dean Brough and Alice Payne), explores the interplay of biotechnology, materiality and textile design in the creation of sustainable, biodegradable vegan textile through the process of a symbiotic culture of bacteria and yeast (SCOBY). SCOBY is a pellicle curd that can be harvested, machine washed, dried and cut into a variety of designs and texture combinations. The exploration of smart materials, wearable design and micro-electronics led to creative and aesthetically coherent stimulus-reactive jewellery; Symbiotic Microcosms: Crafting Digital Interaction (K Vones). This creation aims to bridge the gap between craft practitioner and scientific discovery, proposing a move towards the notion of a post-human body, where wearable design is seen as potential ground for new human-computer interactions, affording the development of visually engaging multifunctional enhancements. In furniture design, Smart Assistive chair for older adults (Chao Zhao) demonstrates how cross-disciplinary knowledge interacting with design strategies provide solution that employed new technological developments in older aged care, and the participation of multiple stakeholders: designers, health care system and community based health systems. In health, Molecular diagnosis system for newborns deafness genetic screening (Chao Zhao) presents an ambitious and complex project that includes a medical device aimed at resolving a number of challenges: technical feasibility for city and rural contexts, compatibility with standard laboratory and hospital systems, access to health system, and support the work of different hospital specialists. The interplay between cross-disciplines is evident in this work, demonstrating how design research moves forward through technology developments. These works exemplify the intersection between domains as a means to innovation. Novel design problems are identified as design intersects with the various areas. Research informs this process, and in different ways. We see the background investigation into the contextualising domain (e.g. on-snow studies, garment recycling, South African health concerns, the post human body) to identify gaps in the area and design criteria; the technologies and materials reviews (e.g. AR, biotextiles) to offer plausible technical means to solve these, as well as design criteria. Theoretical reviews can also inform the design (e.g. play, flow). These work together to equip the design practitioner with a robust set of ‘tools’ for design innovation – tools that are based in research. The process identifies innovative opportunity and criteria for design and this, in turn, provides a means for evaluating the success of the design outcomes. Such an approach has the potential to come full circle between research and design – where the design can function as an exemplar, evidencing how the research-articulated problems can be solved. Core to this, however, is the evaluation of the design outcome itself and identifying knowledge outcomes. In some cases, this is fairly straightforward that is, easily measurable. For example the efficacy of Jason Germany’s helmet can be determined by measuring the reduced response time in the rescuer. Similarly the improved ability to recycle Payne’s panel garments can be clearly determined by comparing it to those recycling processes (and her identified criteria of separating textile elements!); while the sustainability and durability of the Brough & Payne’s biotextile can be assessed by documenting the growth and decay processes, or comparative strength studies. There are however situations where knowledge outcomes and insights are not so easily determined. Many of the works here are open-ended in their nature, as they emphasise the holistic experience of one or more designs, in context: “the end result of the art activity that provides the health benefit or outcome but rather, the value lies in the delivery and experience of the activity” (Bennet et al.) Similarly, reconfiguring layers of laser cut silk in Payne’s Shrinking Violets constitutes a customisable, creative process of clothing oneself since it “could be layered to create multiple visual effects”. Symbiotic Microcosms also has room for facilitating experience, as the work is described to facilitate “serendipitous discovery”. These examples show the diverse emphasis of enquiry as on the experience versus the product. Open-ended experiences are ambiguous, multifaceted and differ from person to person and moment to moment (Eco 1962). Determining the success is not always clear or immediately discernible; it may also not be the most useful question to ask. Rather, research that seeks to understand the nature of the experience afforded by the artefact is most useful in these situations. It can inform the design practitioner by helping them with subsequent re-design as well as potentially being generalizable to other designers and design contexts. Bennett et. al exemplify how this may be approached from a theoretical perspective. This work is concerned with facilitating engaging experiences to educate and, ultimately impact on that community. The research is concerned with the nature of that experience as well, and in order to do so the authors have employed theoretical lenses – here these are of flow, pleasure, play. An alternative or complementary approach to using theory, is using qualitative studies such as interviews with users to ask them about what they experienced? Here the user insights become evidence for generalising across, potentially revealing insight into relevant concerns – such as the range of possible ‘playful’ or experiences that may be afforded, or the situation that preceded a ‘serendipitous discovery’. As shown, IASDR2015 INTERPLAY EXHIBITION provides a platform for exploration, discussion and interrogation around the interplay of design research across diverse domains. We look forward with excitement as IASDR continues to bring research and design together, and as our communities of practitioners continue to push the envelope of what is design and how this can be expanded and better understood with research to foster new work and ultimately, stimulate innovation.

Reconstruction of the ocular surface using biomaterial templates

This chapter discusses the effect on vision of a large group of pathological conditions, known as ocular surface disorders (OSDs), and presents the therapeutic strategies to reconstruct the abnormal ocular surface. If left untreated, most of the OSDs will lead to partial or total loss of eyesight, especially when limbal stem cell deficiency is involved. An overview of various treatment strategies is presented, with the emphasis on the development of the ex vivo expansion of corneal limbal epithelial cells (presumed to be progenitor or stem cells) and the creation of transplantable epithelial constructs. The use of naturally derived biomaterials (collagen, fibrin, amnion, etc.) or synthetic polymers (polylactides, thermoresponsive polymers, etc.) as substrata in these constructs is critically analyzed. Emphasis is placed on the templates from silk proteins, which are being developed by the authors.