Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Cross-correlations between weather variables in Australia

The information on climate variations is essential for the research of many subjects, such as the performance of buildings and agricultural production. However, recorded meteorological data are often incomplete. There may be a limited number of locations recorded, while the number of recorded climatic variables and the time intervals can also be inadequate. Therefore, the hourly data of key weather parameters as required by many building simulation programmes are typically not readily available. To overcome this gap in measured information, several empirical methods and weather data generators have been developed. They generally employ statistical analysis techniques to model the variations of individual climatic variables, while the possible interactions between different weather parameters are largely ignored. Based on a statistical analysis of 10 years historical hourly climatic data over all capital cities in Australia, this paper reports on the finding of strong correlations between several specific weather variables. It is found that there are strong linear correlations between the hourly variations of global solar irradiation (GSI) and dry bulb temperature (DBT), and between the hourly variations of DBT and relative humidity (RH). With an increase in GSI, DBT would generally increase, while the RH tends to decrease. However, no such a clear correlation can be found between the DBT and atmospheric pressure (P), and between the DBT and wind speed. These findings will be useful for the research and practice in building performance simulation.

Lady Nugent and Tom Cringle on the veranda : early nineteenth century observations on a Caribbean architectural feature

This study of the veranda as seen through the eyes of Lady Maria Nugent and Michael Scott, alias Tom Cringle, clearly demonstrates the important role that the piazza, as it was then more commonly known, played in the life of early nineteenth century Caribbean colonial society. The popularity of the veranda throughout the region, in places influenced by different European as well as African cultures, and among all classes of people, suggests that the appeal of this typical feature was based on something more than architectural fashion. A place of relative comfort in hot weather, the veranda is also a space at the interface of indoors and outdoors which allows for a wide variety of uses, for solitary or small or large group activities, many of which were noted by Nugent and Scott. Quintessentially, the veranda is a place in which to relax and take pleasure, not least of which is the enjoyment of the prospect, be it a panoramic view, a peaceful garden or a lively street scene. Despite the great changes in the nature of society, in the Caribbean and in many other parts of the world, the veranda and related structures such as the balcony continue to play at least as important a role in daily life as they did two centuries ago. The veranda of today’s Californian or Australian bungalow, and the balcony of the apartment block in the residential area of the modern city are among the contemporary equivalents of the lower and upper piazzas of Lady Nugent’s and Tom Cringle’s day.