Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Information and communication technology for E-regions

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are essential components of the knowledge economy, and have an immense complementary role in innovation, education, knowledge creation, and relations with government, civil society, and business within city regions. The ability to create, distribute, and exploit knowledge has become a major source of competitive advantage, wealth creation, and improvements in the new regional policies. Growing impact of ICTs on the economy and society, rapid application of recent scientific advances in new products and processes, shifting to more knowledge-intensive industry and services, and rising skill requirements have become crucial concepts for urban and regional competitiveness. Therefore, harnessing ICTs for knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) has a significant impact on urban and regional growth (Yigitcanlar, 2005). In this sense, e-region is a novel concept utilizing ICTs for regional development. Since the Helsinki European Council announced Turkey as a candidate for European Union (EU) membership in 1999, the candidacy has accelerated the speed of regional policy enhancements and adoption of the European regional policy standards. These enhancements and adoption include the generation of a new regional spatial division, NUTS-II statistical regions; a new legislation on the establishment of regional development agencies (RDAs); and new orientations in the field of high education, science, and technology within the framework of the EU’s Lisbon Strategy and the Bologna Process. The European standards posed an ambitious new agenda in the development and application of contemporary regional policy in Turkey (Bilen, 2005). In this sense, novel regional policies in Turkey necessarily endeavor to include information society objectives through efficient use of new technologies such as ICTs. Such a development seeks to be based on tangible assets of the region (Friedmann, 2006) as well as the best practices deriving from grounding initiatives on urban and local levels. These assets provide the foundation of an e-region that harnesses regional development in an information society context. With successful implementations, the Marmara region’s local governments in Turkey are setting the benchmark for the country in the implementation of spatial information systems and e-governance, and moving toward an e-region. Therefore, this article aims to shed light on organizational and regional realities of recent practices of ICT applications and their supply instruments based on evidence from selected local government organizations in the Marmara region. This article also exemplifies challenges and opportunities of the region in moving toward an e-region and provides a concise review of different ICT applications and strategies in a broader urban and regional context. The article is organized in three parts. The following section scrutinizes the e-region framework and the role of ICTs in regional development. Then, Marmara’s opportunities and challenges in moving toward an e-region are discussed in the context of ICT applications and their supply instruments based on public-sector projects, policies, and initiatives. Subsequently, the last section discusses conclusions and prospective research.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Domestication to crop improvement: Genetic resources for sorghum and saccharum (Andropogoneae)

Background Both sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) are members of the Andropogoneae tribe in the Poaceae and are each other's closest relatives amongst cultivated plants. Both are relatively recent domesticates and comparatively little of the genetic potential of these taxa and their wild relatives has been captured by breeding programmes to date. This review assesses the genetic gains made by plant breeders since domestication and the progress in the characterization of genetic resources and their utilization in crop improvement for these two related species. Genetic Resources The genome of sorghum has recently been sequenced providing a great boost to our knowledge of the evolution of grass genomes and the wealth of diversity within S. bicolor taxa. Molecular analysis of the Sorghum genus has identified close relatives of S. bicolor with novel traits, endosperm structure and composition that may be used to expand the cultivated gene pool. Mutant populations (including TILLING populations) provide a useful addition to genetic resources for this species. Sugarcane is a complex polyploid with a large and variable number of copies of each gene. The wild relatives of sugarcane represent a reservoir of genetic diversity for use in sugarcane improvement. Techniques for quantitative molecular analysis of gene or allele copy number in this genetically complex crop have been developed. SNP discovery and mapping in sugarcane has been advanced by the development of high-throughput techniques for ecoTILLING in sugarcane. Genetic linkage maps of the sugarcane genome are being improved for use in breeding selection. The improvement of both sorghum and sugarcane will be accelerated by the incorporation of more diverse germplasm into the domesticated gene pools using molecular tools and the improved knowledge of these genomes.

Quality delivery of mobile video : in-depth understanding of user requirements

The increase of powerful mobile devices has accelerated the demand for mobile videos. Previous studies in mobile video have focused on understanding of mobile video usage, improvement of video quality, and user interface design in video browsing. However, research focusing on a deep understanding of users’ needs for a pleasing quality delivery of mobile video is lacking. In particular, what quality-delivery mode users prefer and what information relevant to video quality they need requires attention. This paper presents a qualitative interview study with 38 participants to gain an insight into three aspects: influencing factors of user-desired video quality, user-preferred quality-delivery modes, and user-required interaction information of mobile video. The results show that user requirements for video quality are related to personal preference, technology background and video viewing experience, and the preferred quality-delivery mode and interactive mode are diverse. These complex user requirements call for flexible and personalised quality delivery and interaction of mobile video.

Rethinking regulatory design : The Australian National Classification Scheme review

This paper considers issues of methodological innovation in communication, media and cultural studies, that arise out of the extent to which we now live in a media environment characterised by an digital media abundance, the convergence of media platforms, content and services, and the globalisation of media content through ubiquitous computing and high-speed broadband networks. These developments have also entailed a shift in the producer-consumer relationships that characterised the 20th century mass communications paradigm, with the rapid proliferation of user-created content, accelerated innovation, the growing empowerment of media users themselves, and the blurring of distinctions between public and private, as well as age-based distinctions in terms of what media can be accessed by whom and for what purpose. It considers these issues through a case study of the Australian Law Reform Commission's National Classification Scheme Review.

AtBAG7, an Arabidopsis Bcl-2-associated athanogene, resides in the endoplasmic reticulum and is involved in the unfolded protein response

The Bcl-2-associated athanogene (BAG) family is an evolutionarily conserved, multifunctional group of cochaperones that perform diverse cellular functions ranging from proliferation to growth arrest and cell death in yeast, in mammals, and, as recently observed, in plants. The Arabidopsis genome contains seven homologs of the BAG family, including four with domain organization similar to animal BAGs. In the present study we show that an Arabidopsis BAG, AtBAG7, is a uniquely localized endoplasmic reticulum (ER) BAG that is necessary for the proper maintenance of the unfolded protein response (UPR). AtBAG7was shown to interact directly in vivo with themolecular chaperone, AtBiP2, by bimolecular fluorescence complementation assays, and the interaction was confirmed by yeast two-hybrid assay. Treatment with an inducer of UPR, tunicamycin, resulted in accelerated cell death of AtBAG7-null mutants. Furthermore, AtBAG7 knockouts were sensitive to known ER stress stimuli, heat and cold. In these knockouts heat sensitivity was reverted successfully to the wild-type phenotype with the addition of the chemical chaperone, tauroursodexycholic acid (TUDCA). Real-time PCR of ER stress proteins indicated that the expression of the heat-shock protein, AtBiP3, is selectively up-regulated in AtBAG7-null mutants upon heat and cold stress. Our results reveal an unexpected diversity of the plant's BAG gene family and suggest that AtBAG7 is an essential component of the UPR during heat and cold tolerance, thus confirming the cytoprotective role of plant BAGs.

The resource boom's underbelly : criminological impacts of mining development

Australia is currently in the midst of a major resources boom. Resultant growing demands for labour in regional and remote areas have accelerated the recruitment of non resident workers, mostly contractors, who work extended block rosters of 12-hour shifts and are accommodated in work camps, often adjacent to established mining towns. Serious social impacts of these practices, including violence and crime, have generally escaped industry, government and academic scrutiny. This paper highlights some of these impacts on affected regional communities and workers and argues that post-industrial mining regimes serve to mask and privatize these harms and risks, shifting them on to workers, families and communities.

Book review : "Carbon Capture and Storage Emerging Legal and Regulatory Issues" edited by Ian Havercroft, Richard Macrory, Richard B Stewart, Oxford, Hart Publishing, 2011

As the international community struggles to find a cost-effective solution to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a project mechanism with the potential to assist in transitioning society towards its low carbon future. Being a politically attractive option, legal regimes to promote and approve CCS have proceeded at an accelerated pace in multiple jurisdictions including the European Union and Australia. This acceleration and emphasis on the swift commercial deployment of CCS projects has left the legal community in the undesirable position of having to advise on the strengths and weaknesses of the key features of these regimes once they have been passed and become operational. This is an area where environmental law principles are tested to their very limit. On the one hand, implementation of this new technology should proceed in a precautionary manner to avoid adverse impacts on the atmosphere, local community and broader environment. On the other hand, excessive regulatory restrictions will stifle innovation and act as a barrier to the swift deployment of CCS projects around the world. Finding the balance between precaution and innovation is no easy feat. This is an area where lawyers, academics, regulators and industry representatives can benefit from the sharing of collective experiences, both positive and negative, across the jurisdictions. This exemplary book appears to have been collated with this philosophy in mind and provides an insightful addition to the global dialogue on establishing effective national and international regimes for the implementation of CCS projects...

Genetic evidence for the vital function of osterix in cementogenesis

To date, attempts to regenerate a complete tooth, including the critical periodontal tissues associated with the tooth root, have not been successful. Controversy still exists regarding the origin of the cell source for cellular cementum (epithelial or mesenchymal). This disagreement may be partially due to a lack of understanding of the events leading to the initiation and development of the tooth roots and supportive tissues, such as the cementum. Osterix (OSX) is a transcriptional factor essential for osteogenesis, but its role in cementogenesis has not been addressed. In the present study, we first documented a close relationship between the temporal- and spatial-expression pattern of OSX and the formation of cellular cementum. We then generated 3.6 Col 1-OSX transgenic mice, which displayed accelerated cementum formation vs. WT controls. Importantly, the conditional deletion of OSX in the mesenchymal cells with two different Cre systems (the 2.3 kb Col 1 and an inducible CAG-CreER) led to a sharp reduction in cellular cementum formation (including the cementum mass and mineral deposition rate) and gene expression of dentin matrix protein 1 (DMP1) by cementocytes. However, the deletion of the OSX gene after cellular cementum formed did not alter the properties of the mature cementum as evaluated by backscattered SEM and resin-cast SEM. Transient transfection of Osx in the cementoblasts in vitro significantly inhibited cell proliferation and increased cell differentiation and mineralization. Taken together, these data support 1) the mesenchymal origin of cellular cementum (from PDL progenitor cells); 2) the vital role of OSX in controlling the formation of cellular cementum; and 3) the limited remodeling of cellular cementum in adult mice.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Digital intermediary: Korean transnational cinema

Since censorship was lifted in Korea in 1996, collaboration between Korean and foreign filmmakers has grown in both extent and visibility. Korean films have been shot in Australia, New Zealand and mainland China, while the Korean digital post-production and visual effects firms behind blockbusters infused with local effects have gone on to work with filmmakers from greater China and Hollywood Korean cinema has become known for its universal storylines, genre experimentation and high production values. The number of exported Korean films has increased, as has the number of Korean actors starring in films made in other countries. Korea has hosted major international industry events. These milestones have facilitated an unprecedented international expansion of the Korean film industry. With the advent of the 'digital wave in Korea the film industry's transition to digital production practices this expansion has accelerated Korean film agencies the pillars of the national cinema have played important parts in this internationalisation, particularly in promoting Korean films and filmmakers outside Korea and in facilitating international events in Korea itself Yet, for the most part, projects involving Korean filmmakers working in partnership with filmmakers from other countries are the products of individuals and businesses working outside official channels. That is, they are often better understood as 'transnational rather than 'national' or 'international' projects. In this article, we focus on a range of collaborations involving Korean, Australian, New Zealand and Chinese filmmakers and firms. These collaborations highlight some of the forces that have shaped the digital wave in the Korean film industry, and illustrate the increasingly influential role that the 'digital expertise of Korean filmmakers is playing in film industries, both regionally and around the world.

The evolutionary history of the extinct ratite moa and New Zealand Neogene paleogeography

The ratite moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes) were a speciose group of massive graviportal avian herbivores that dominated the New Zealand (NZ) ecosystem until their extinction �600 years ago. The phylogeny and evolutionary history of this morphologically diverse order has remained controversial since their initial description in 1839. We synthesize mitochondrial phylogenetic information from 263 subfossil moa specimens from across NZ with morphological, ecological, and new geological data to create the first comprehensive phylogeny, taxonomy, and evolutionary timeframe for all of the species of an extinct order. We also present an important new geological/paleogeographical model of late Cenozoic NZ, which suggests that terrestrial biota on the North and South Island landmasses were isolated for most of the past 20–30 Ma. The data reveal that the patterns of genetic diversity within and between differentmoaclades reflect a complex history following a major marine transgression in the Oligocene, affected by marine barriers, tectonic activity, and glacial cycles. Surprisingly, the remarkable morphological radiation of moa appears to have occurred much more recently than previous early Miocene (ca. 15 Ma) estimates, and was coincident with the accelerated uplift of the Southern Alps just ca. 5–8.5 Ma. Together with recent fossil evidence, these data suggest that the recent evolutionary history of nearly all of the iconic NZ terrestrial biota occurred principally on just the South Island.

A 2-h diagnostic protocol to assess patients with chest pain symptoms in the Asia-Pacific region (ASPECT): a prospective observational validation study

Background: Patients with chest pain contribute substantially to emergency department attendances, lengthy hospital stay, and inpatient admissions. A reliable, reproducible, and fast process to identify patients presenting with chest pain who have a low short-term risk of a major adverse cardiac event is needed to facilitate early discharge. We aimed to prospectively validate the safety of a predefined 2-h accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) to assess patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: This observational study was undertaken in 14 emergency departments in nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in patients aged 18 years and older with at least 5 min of chest pain. The ADP included use of a structured pre-test probability scoring method (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score), electrocardiograph, and point-of-care biomarker panel of troponin, creatine kinase MB, and myoglobin. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events within 30 days after initial presentation (including initial hospital attendance). This trial is registered with the Australia-New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000283279. Findings: 3582 consecutive patients were recruited and completed 30-day follow-up. 421 (11•8%) patients had a major adverse cardiac event. The ADP classified 352 (9•8%) patients as low risk and potentially suitable for early discharge. A major adverse cardiac event occurred in three (0•9%) of these patients, giving the ADP a sensitivity of 99•3% (95% CI 97•9–99•8), a negative predictive value of 99•1% (97•3–99•8), and a specificity of 11•0% (10•0–12•2). Interpretation: This novel ADP identifies patients at very low risk of a short-term major adverse cardiac event who might be suitable for early discharge. Such an approach could be used to decrease the overall observation periods and admissions for chest pain. The components needed for the implementation of this strategy are widely available. The ADP has the potential to affect health-service delivery worldwide.