Rethinking emergency management and climate adaptation policies

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job – Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT.

Storylines of institutional responses to climate change as a transformative stressor : the case of regional planning in South East Queensland, Australia

Institutional responses to climate change stresses through planning will require new and amended forms of governance. Institutional framing of change imperatives can significantly condition associated governance responses. This paper builds on scholarly conversations concerning the conceptual role of ‘storylines’ in shaping institutional responses to climate change through governance. It draws on conceptual perspectives of climate change as a ‘transformative stressor’, which can compel institutional transformation within planning. The concepts of storylines and transformative stressors are conceptually linked. The conceptual approach is applied to an empirical enquiry focused on the regional planning regime of South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. This paper reports and examines three institutional storylines of responding to climate change through planning governance in SEQ. It concludes that the manifestation of climate change as a transformative stressor in SEQ prompted institutional transformation, leading to a dominant storyline focused on climate adaptation as an important facet of regional planning governance.

Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

Perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers in rural Australia

Disagreement within the global science community about the certainty and causes of climate change has led the general public to question what to believe and who to trust on matters related to this issue. This paper reports on qualitative research undertaken with Australian residents from two rural areas to explore their perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers. While overall, residents tended to agree that climate change is a reality, perceptions varied in terms of its causes and how best to address it. Politicians, government, and the media were described as untrustworthy sources of information about climate change, with independent scientists being the most trusted. The vested interests of information providers appeared to be a key reason for their distrust. The findings highlight the importance of improved transparency and consultation with the public when communicating information about climate change and related policies.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Adaptation lessons from cyclone Tracy

This case study will review the impact of Tropical Cyclone Tracy on the city and people of Darwin, the Australian engineering and institutional responses that it invoked and the relevance of these lessons to a world threatened by global climate change. At Christmas, 1974, Tropical Cyclone Tracy laid waste the city of Darwin, an iconic episode in the history of Australian natural disasters. It provides one of the clearest and most successful examples worldwide of adaptation to a catastrophe. Following large losses in Townsville from Tropical Cyclone Althea in 1971, the level of destruction in Darwin was such that it led to new regulations mandating the use of the wind code for reconstruction, and eventually to similar regulations for new construction in other cyclone-prone areas of Australia.

Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: A choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators

Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.

Resilience of water supply systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.

Making climate change manageable : how accounting constructs new power-knowledge regimes

This paper examines the modern power of accounting to permeate new spheres and create new objects by examining how climate change becomes a new category for accounting’s attention. It outlines the socio-political problem space where accounting and climate change connect by tracing the emergence of the UK’s Climate Change Act (2008) to a specifically modern calculating attitude described here as ‘managing by the numbers’. It suggests the intersection of accounting and climate change was made possible by accounting’s role in tying disciplinary subjectivities and objectivities together whilst operating simultaneously at the level of individuals, organisations and government. Such that when faced with new unknowns we revert to previous ways of managing we have come to know and experienced throughout our formative years in schools, hospitals, firms and government departments. In this way, accounting’s emergence in the domain of managing climate change implies a transformation that cannot be explained merely as a practical response to a global warming problem, but rather as an example of a new power-knowledge regime that makes possible the management and control of a new organisational phenomenon called climate change.

Protecting World Heritage sites from the adverse impacts of climate change : obligations for States Parties to the World Heritage Convention

Through its mandate to protect and preserve places of ‘outstanding universal value’, the World Heritage Convention provides an unlikely yet effective tool in global efforts to mitigate climate change. The practical efficacy of the Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses (‘the Strategy’), which represents the World Heritage Committee’s primary response to the threats posed by climate change to World Heritage sites, is undermined by its weak stance on mitigation. This paper argues that the World Heritage Convention imposes stronger obligations on States Parties than those contained in the Strategy, including a duty on States Parties to commit to ‘deep cuts’ in greenhouse gas emissions. In order to ensure the continuing success of the World Heritage Convention States Parties must engage in extensive mitigation strategies without delay.

Is climate change litigation an effective strategy for promoting greater action to address climate change? What other legal mechanisms might be appropriate?

In recent times a widespread consensus on the reality and gravity of anthropogenic climate change has emerged. Perceived inadequacies in the Australian government’s legal and policy responses to climate change issues have resulted in environmental activists increasingly turning to the courts as a strategy to promote greater action to address adverse climate impacts. The efficacy of this strategy for achieving climate goals is limited by the time and expense of litigating, the restrictions inherent in environmental law administrative challenges, and the possibility that judicial decisions may be overruled by the legislature. To date, climate change litigation in Australia has met with varied success, yet its significance extends beyond the court room as an important mechanism for raising public, political and commercial awareness about climate change issues. Ultimately, however, the types of far-reaching changes needed to mitigate and manage adverse climate impacts require strong regulatory backing. The most effective approach to addressing the complex challenges posed by climate change is a coordinated suite of regulatory measures spearheaded by the Federal Government.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.