Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Perils to people and property : valuation practices in a water world

Recent international experiences have reinforced the peril to people and property from rising sea levels and associated water events. The related risks, while perhaps more obvious for properties located in coastal regions, can also impact upon inland properties. These risks are slowly influencing changes to planning practices and attitudes. This paper examines these risks from the perspective of land values and identifies the matters, and processes, that should be adopted in valuation practices.

The use of new generation geosynthetics in water treatment

The importance of clean drinking water in any community is absolutely vital if we as the consumers are to sustain a life of health and wellbeing. Suspended particles in surface waters not only provide the means to transport micro-organisms which can cause serious infections and diseases, they can also affect the performance capacity of a water treatment plant. In such situations pre-treatment ahead of the main plant is recommended. Previous research carried out using non-woven synthetic as a pre-filter materials for protecting slow sand filters from high turbidity showed that filter run times can be extended by several times and filters can be regenerated by simply removing and washing of the fabric ( Mbwette and Graham, 1987 and Mbwette, 1991). Geosynthetic materials have been extensively used for soil retention and dewatering in geotechnical applications and little research exists for the application of turbidity reduction in water treatment. With the development of new materials in geosynthetics today, it was hypothesized that the turbidity removal efficiency can be improved further by selecting appropriate materials. Two different geosynthetic materials (75 micron) tested at a filtration rate of 0.7 m/h yielded 30-45% reduction in turbidity with relatively minor head loss. It was found that the non-woven geotextile Propex 1701 retained the highest performance in both filtration efficiency and head loss across the varying turbidity ranges in comparison to other geotextiles tested. With 5 layers of the Propex 1701 an average percent reduction of approximately 67% was achieved with a head loss average of 4mm over the two and half hour testing period. Using the data collected for the Propex 1701 a mathematical model was developed for predicting the expected percent reduction given the ability to control the cost and as a result the number of layers to be used in a given filtration scenario.

Conservation genetics of the water mouse, Xeromys myoides Thomas, 1889

The water mouse, Xeromys myoides, is currently recognised as a vulnerable species in Australia, inhabiting a small number of distinct and isolated coastal regions of Queensland and the Northern Territory. An examination of the evolutionary history and contemporary influences shaping the genetic structure of this species is required to make informed conservation management decisions. Here, we report the first analysis undertaken on the phylogeography and population genetics of the water mouse across its mainland Australian distribution. Genetic diversity was assessed at two mitochondrial DNA (Cytochrome b, 1000 bp; D-loop, 400 bp) and eight microsatellite DNA loci. Very low genetic diversity was found, indicating that water mice underwent a recent expansion throughout their Australian range and constitute a single evolutionarily significant unit. Microsatellite analyses revealed that the highest genetic diversity was found in the Mackay region of central Queensland; population substructure was also identified, suggesting that local populations may be isolated in this region. Conversely, genetic diversity in the Coomera region of south-east Queensland was very low and the population in this region has experienced a significant genetic bottleneck. These results have significant implications for future management, particularly in terms of augmenting populations through translocations or reintroducing water mice in areas where they have gone extinct.

4D GPR tracking of water infiltration in fractured high-porosity limestone

Three thousand liters of water were infiltrated from a 4 m diameter pond to track flow and transport inside fractured carbonates with 20-40 % porosity. Sixteen time-lapse 3D Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys with repetition intervals between 2 hrs and 5 days monitored the spreading of the water bulb in the subsurface. Based on local travel time shifts between repeated GPR survey pairs, localized changes of volumetric water content can be related to the processes of wetting, saturation and drainage. Deformation bands consisting of thin sub vertical sheets of crushed grains reduce the magnitude of water content changes but enhance flow in sheet parallel direction. This causes an earlier break through across a stratigraphic boundary compared to porous limestone without deformation bands. This experiment shows how time-lapse 3D GPR or 4D GPR can non-invasively track ongoing flow processes in rock-volumes of over 100 m3.

Shape up or ship out : can we enhance productivity in coastal aquaculture to compete with other uses?

Coastal resources are coming under increasing pressure from competition between recreational, commercial and conservation uses. This is particularly so in coastal areas adjacent to major population centres. Given high recreational and conservation values in such areas, economic activities need to be highly efficient in order to persist. Management of these industries must therefore also encourage efficient production and full utilisation of the areas available. In order to achieve this, managers must first understand the level and drivers of productivity, and how these can be influenced. In this study, by way of illustration, the focus was on the Sydney rock oyster industry within Queensland's Moreton Bay, a multiple use marine park with high recreational and conservation value adjacent to Australia's third largest city. Productivity of the oyster industry in Moreton Bay is currently low compared to historic levels, and management has an objective of reversing this trend. It is unclear whether this difference is due to oyster farmers' business choices and personal characteristics or whether varying environmental conditions in the Moreton Bay limit the capacity of the oyster industry. These require different management responses in order to enhance productivity. The study examined different productivity measures of the oyster industry using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to determine where productivity gains can be made and by how much. The findings suggest that the industry is operating at a high level of capacity utilisation, but a low level of efficiency. The results also suggest that both demographic and environmental conditions affect technical efficiency in the Bay, with water characteristics improvements and appropriate training potentially providing the greatest benefits to the industry. Methods used in this study are transferable to other industries and provide a means by which coastal aquaculture may be managed to ensure it remains competitive with other uses of coastal resources.

Sources and transport pathways of common heavy metals to urban road surfaces

Heavy metals that are built-up on urban impervious surfaces such as roads are transported to urban water resources through stormwater runoff. Therefore, it is essential to understand the predominant pathways of heavy metals to the build-up on roads in order to develop suitable pollution mitigation strategies to protect the receiving water environment. The study presented in this paper investigated the sources and transport pathways of manganese, lead, copper, zinc and chromium, which are heavy metals commonly present in urban road build-up. It was found that manganese and lead are contributed to road build-up primarily by direct deposition due to the re-suspension of roadside soil by wind turbulence, while traffic is the predominant source of copper, zinc and chromium to the atmosphere and road build-up. Atmospheric deposition is also the major transport pathway for copper and zinc, and for chromium, direct deposition by traffic sources is the predominant pathway.

Effect of nano-silica on the mechanical and transport properties of lightweight concrete

This paper investigated the influence of nano-silica (NS) on the mechanical and transport properties of lightweight concrete (LWC). The resistance of LWC to water and chloride ions penetration was enhanced despite strength marginally increased. Water penetration depth, moisture sorptivity, chloride migration and diffusion coefficient was reduced by 23% and 49%, 23% and 10%, 5% and 0%, 22% and 12% compared to the two reference LWC mixes (pure cement and 60% slag blended cement), respectively with 1% NS. Such improvements were attributed to more compact microstructures because the micropore system was refined and the interface between aggregates and paste was enhanced.

Estimate of Lagrangian integral scales in shallow tidal water using high resolution GPS-tracked drifters

In estuaries and natural water channels, the estimate of velocity and dispersion coefficients is critical to the knowledge of scalar transport and mixing. This estimate is rarely available experimentally at sub-tidal time scale in shallow water channels where high frequency is required to capture its spatio-temporal variation. This study estimates Lagrangian integral scales and autocorrelation curves, which are key parameters for obtaining velocity fluctuations and dispersion coefficients, and their spatio-temporal variability from deployments of Lagrangian drifters sampled at 10 Hz for a 4-hour period. The power spectral densities of the velocities between 0.0001 and 0.8 Hz were well fitted with a slope of 5/3 predicted by Kolmogorov’s similarity hypothesis within the inertial subrange, and were similar to the Eulerian power spectral previously observed within the estuary. The result showed that large velocity fluctuations determine the magnitude of the integral time scale, TL. Overlapping of short segments improved the stability of the estimate of TL by taking advantage of the redundant data included in the autocorrelation function. The integral time scales were about 20 s and varied by up to a factor of 8. These results are essential inputs for spatial binning of velocities, Lagrangian stochastic modelling and single particle analysis of the tidal estuary.

A preliminary OSL chronology for coastal dunes on Moreton island, Queensland, Australia – Marginal deposits of A large-scale quaternary shelf sediment system

Moreton Island and several other large siliceous sand dune islands and mainland barrier deposits in SE Queensland represent the distal, onshore component of an extensive Quaternary continental shelf sediment system. This sediment has been transported up to 1000 km along the coast and shelf of SE Australia over multiple glacioeustatic sea-level cycles. Stratigraphic relationships and a preliminary Optically Stimulated Luminance (OSL) chronology for Moreton Island indicate a middle Pleistocene age for the large majority of the deposit. Dune units exposed in the centre of the island and on the east coast have OSL ages that indicate deposition occurred between approximately 540 ka and 350 ka BP, and at around 96±10 ka BP. Much of the southern half of the island has a veneer of much younger sediment, with OSL ages of 0.90±0.11 ka, 1.28±0.16 ka, 5.75±0.53 ka and <0.45 ka BP. The younger deposits were partially derived from the reworking of the upper leached zone of the much older dunes. A large parabolic dune at the northern end of the island, OSL age of 9.90±1.0 ka BP, and palaeosol exposures that extend below present sea level suggest the Pleistocene dunes were sourced from shorelines positioned several to tens of metres lower than, and up to few kilometres seaward of the present shoreline. Given the lower gradient of the inner shelf a few km seaward of the island, it seems likely that periods of intermediate sea level (e.g. ~20 m below present) produced strongly positive onshore sediment budgets and the mobilisation of dunes inland to form much of what now comprises Moreton Island. The new OSL ages and comprehensive OSL chronology for the Cooloola deposit, 100 km north of Moreton Island, indicate that the bulk of the coastal dune deposits in SE Queensland were emplaced between approximately 540 ka BP and prior to the Last Interglacial. This chronostratigraphic information improves our fundamental understanding of long-term sediment transport and accumulation on large-scale continental shelf sediment systems.

Effect of water management practice on pesticide behavior in paddy water

The fate and transport of three herbicides commonly used in rice production in Japan were compared using two water management practices. The herbicides were simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet. The first management practice was an intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system (AI) with a high drainage gate and the second one was a continuous irrigation and overflow drainage scheme (CI) in experimental paddy fields. Dissipation of the herbicides appeared to follow first order kinetics with the half-lives (DT₅₀) of 1.6-3.4 days and the DT₉₀ (90% dissipation) of 7.4-9.8 days. The AI scheme had little drainage even during large rainfall events thus resulting in losses of less than 4% of each applied herbicide through runoff. Meanwhile the CI scheme resulted in losses of about 37%, 12% and 35% of the applied masses of simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet, respectively. The intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate saved irrigation water and prevented herbicide runoff whereas the continuous irrigation and overflow scheme resulted in significant losses of water as well as the herbicides. Maintaining the excess water storage is important for preventing paddy water runoff during significant rainfall events. The organic carbon partition coefficient K_oc seems to be a strong indicator of the aquatic fate of the herbicide as compared to the water solubility (S_W). However, further investigations are required to understand the relation between K_oc and the agricultural practices upon the pesticide fate and transport. An extension of the water holding period up to 10 days after herbicide application based on the DT₉₀ from the currently specified period of 3-4 days in Japan is recommended to be a good agricultural practice for controlling the herbicide runoff from paddy fields. Also, the best water management practice, which can be recommended for use during the water holding period, is the intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Simulation of pesticide behavior in a paddy block by a pesticide fate and transport model

A simulation model (PCPF-B) was developed based on the PCPF-1 model to predict the runoff of pesticides from paddy plots to a drainage canal in a paddy block. The block-scale model now comprises three modules: (1) a module for pesticide application, (2) a module for pesticide behavior in paddy fields, and (3) a module for pesticide concentration in the drainage canal. The PCPF-B model was first evaluated by published data in a single plot and then was applied to predict the concentration of bensulfuron-methyl in one paddy block in the Sakura river basin, Ibaraki, Japan, where a detailed field survey was conducted. The PCPF-B model simulated well the behavior of bensulfuron-methyl in individual paddy plots. It also reflected the runoff pattern of bensulfuron-methyl at the block outlet, although overestimation of bensulfuronmethyl concentrations occurred due to uncertainty in water balance estimation. Application of water management practice such as water-holding period and seepage control also affected the performance of the model. A probabilistic approach may be necessary for a comprehensive risk assessment in large-scale paddy areas.

Fate and transport of bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron in paddy fields: Experiments and model simulation

Experiments were conducted to determine the fate of bensulfuron-methyl (BSM) and imazosulfuron (IMS) under paddy conditions. Initially, laboratory experiments were conducted and the photolysis half-lives of the two herbicides were found to be much shorter than their hydrolysis half-lives in aqueous solutions. In the aerobic water–soil system, dissipation followed first-order kinetics with water half-lives of 9.1 and 11.0 days and soil half-lives of 12.4 and 18.5 days (first phase) and 35.0 and 44.1 days (second phase) for bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron, respectively. However, the anaerobic soil half-lives were only 12.7 and 9.8 days for BSM and IMS, respectively. The values of K d were determined to be 16.0 and 13.8 for BSM and IMS, respectively. Subsequent field measurements for the two herbicides revealed that dissipation of both herbicides in paddy water involved biphasic first-order kinetics, with the dissipation rates in the first phase being much faster than those in the second phase. The dissipation of bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron in the paddy surface soil were also followed biphasic first-order kinetics. These results were then used as input parameters for the PCPF-1 model to simulate the fate and transport of BSM and IMS in the paddy environment (water and 1-cm surface soil layer). The measured and simulated values agreed well and the mass balance error during the simulation period was −1.2 and 2.8% of applied pesticide, respectively, for BSM and IMS.