Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Anisotropic damage mechanics as a novel approach to improve pre-and post-failure borehole stability analysis

Anisotropic damage distribution and evolution have a profound effect on borehole stress concentrations. Damage evolution is an irreversible process that is not adequately described within classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Therefore, we propose a constitutive model, based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics, that accounts for anisotropic damage distribution, anisotropic damage threshold and anisotropic damage evolution. We implemented this constitutive model numerically, using the finite element method, to calculate stress–strain curves and borehole stresses. The resulting stress–strain curves are distinctively different from linear elastic-brittle and linear elastic-ideal plastic constitutive models and realistically model experimental responses of brittle rocks. We show that the onset of damage evolution leads to an inhomogeneous redistribution of material properties and stresses along the borehole wall. The classical linear elastic-brittle approach to borehole stability analysis systematically overestimates the stress concentrations on the borehole wall, because dissipative strain-softening is underestimated. The proposed damage mechanics approach explicitly models dissipative behaviour and leads to non-conservative mud window estimations. Furthermore, anisotropic rocks with preferential planes of failure, like shales, can be addressed with our model.

Accounts of experiences of bulimia : a discourse analytic study.

Objectives: To identify the variety of versions of bulimia constructed by participants, to suggest functions and consequences of these constructions, and to examine the sociocultural ideologies evident in participants' discourse. Methods: Ten women and one man were interviewed about their experiences of bulimia. Transcribed interviews were analyzed using a discourse analytic approach. Results: Five dominant ways of talking about bulimia were identified: Individuals were constructed as victims of bulimia, women were constructed as victims of social stereotypes, bulimia was constructed as a damaging action one performs on oneself, bulimia was constructed as a personality trait of individuals, and bulimia was marginalized as abnormal and disgusting. Discussion: Sociocultural ideologies evident in participants' accounts included the valuing of individual will-power and self-mastery and the construction of a mind-body dichotomy entailing the need to control the latter. The analysis emphasizes the importance of considering the sociocultural context within which psychological problems occur.

Beijing : a media capital in the making

In the two decades since 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization,the commercialization of the Chinese media has become a significant force. With the increasing demand for original content and a possible “cultural trade deficit” in media content, there has been much discussion about agglomeration and clustering. Beijing, as the national media centre of China, has witnessed the process of media agglomeration while facing the problem of cultural export during the commercialization of the media. Michael Curtin’s idea of media capital, which sees it as absorbing media resources and personnel and exporting media products transnationally, provides a dynamic perspective on understanding media agglomeration and dispersion under different political social and cultural circumstances. Hence, the question of whether Beijing will transform into a transnational media capital is worth studying in order to observe and comprehend China’s media industry in transition. Drawing on Michael Curtin’s three media capital trajectories, this paper interprets tensions and challenges generated in the process of media industry agglomeration and growth in Beijing. Emphasis is placed on the third trajectory, socio-cultural variation.

Enduring powers of attorney : promoting attorneys' accountability as substitute decision makers

Aim The misuse and abuse of Enduring Powers of Attorney (EPAs) by attorneys, particularly in relation to financial decision-making, is a growing concern. This paper explores the opportunities to enhance accountability of attorneys at the time of the execution of the document in Queensland. Method A four stage multi-method design comprised a critical reference group; semi-structured interviews with 32 principals or potential principals, attorneys and witnesses; two focus groups with service providers and a state wide survey of 76 principals, attorneys and witnesses. Results Across all methods and user groups, understanding the role and obligations of the attorney in an EPA was consistently identified as problematic. Conclusions Promoting accountability and understanding can be addressed by greater attention to the role of the attorney in the forms/ guidelines and in the structure and witnessing of the forms, increased direction about record keeping and access to appropriate advice and support.

Book Review [White Bound: Nationalists, Antiracists, and the Shared Meanings of Race, by MW Hughey]

Dr Kathy A. Mills provides a critical synthesis and review of the new book by Matthew W. Hughey entitle: White Bound: Nationalists, Antiractists, and the Shared Meanings of Race, published by Standford University Press in 2012. A sample of Dr Mills' review reads: "The author positions race squarely at the center to challenge the shared assumptions of white supremacist logic on both sides of the debate. The clever thesis blurs the boundaries between “good whites” and “bad whites”, rendering the white reader intellectually stimulated, but existentially unchanged – White Bound – as the author ponders: “Perhaps we have met the enemy, and he [it] is us” (p.193)...The unanswered question that remains is: How do we resist the various “shades” of white supremacy to pursue counter-hegemonic practices?"

Pregnancy loss and psychiatric disorders in young women : an Australian birth cohort study

Background Recent evidence has linked induced abortion with later adverse psychiatric outcomes in young women. Aims To examine whether abortion or miscarriage are associated with subsequent psychiatric and substance use disorders. Method A sample (n=1223) of women from a cohort born between 1981 and 1984 in Australia were assessed at 21 years for psychiatric and substance use disorders and lifetime pregnancy histories. Results Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis): abortion odds ratio (OR)=3.6 (95% CI 2.0–6.7) and miscarriage OR=2.6 (95% CI 1.2–5.4). Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.3–3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95% CI 1.1–3.1). Conclusions These findings add to the growing body of evidence suggesting that pregnancy loss per se, whether abortion or miscarriage, increases the risk of a range of substance use disorders and affective disorders in young women.

Impact of recent coastal development and human activities on Nha Trang Bay, Vietnam : evidence from a Porites lutea geochemical record

Nha Trang Bay (NTB) is located on the Central Vietnam coast, western South China Sea. Recent coastal development of Nha Trang City has raised public concern over an increasing level of pollution within the bay and degradation of nearby coral reefs. In this study, multiple proxies (e.g., trace metals, rare earth elements (REEs), and Y/Ho) recorded in a massive Porites lutea coral colony were used to reconstruct changes in seawater conditions in the NTB from 1995 to 2009. A 14-year record of REEs and other trace metals revealed that the concentrations of terrestrial trace metals have increased dramatically in response to an increase in coastal development projects such as road, port, and resort constructions, port and river dredging, and dumping activities since 2000. The effects of such developmental processes are also evident in changes in REE patterns and Y/Ho ratios through time, suggesting that both parameters are critical proxies for marine pollution.

Environmental constitutional reform in the developing world : shifting the perspective of international law?

In recent years a growing number of states have chosen to recognise environmental issues in their national constitutions. Some have added declarations about the value of the environment, some have sought to restrict or regulate government’s ability to take action which would potentially harm the environment, while others have proclaimed that citizens possess a right to an environment of a particular quality. A survey of these constitutional provisions reveals that the majority of reform in this area has come from developing states, including a number of states which have been designated as among the least developed countries in the world. The increasing focus on constitutional environmental rights appears to represent a shift in the attitude of developing and emerging economies, which could in turn be influential in setting the tone of the environmental rights debate more broadly, with potential to shape the future development of international law in the area. This chapter examines constitutional environmental rights in an attempt to determine whether consistent state practice can in fact be identified in this area which might form the basis of an emerging norm. It will also analyse some of the potential contributing factors to the proliferation of a constitutional right to a good environment among developing states, and the implications for the development of customary international law.

Home-based activity program for older people with depressive symptoms: DeLLITE–A randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE We wanted to assess the effectiveness of a home-based physical activity program, the Depression in Late Life Intervention Trial of Exercise (DeLLITE), in improving function, quality of life, and mood in older people with depressive symptoms. METHODS We undertook a randomized controlled trial involving 193 people aged 75 years and older with depressive symptoms at enrollment who were recruited from primary health care practices in Auckland, New Zealand. Participants received either an individualized physical activity program or social visits to control for the contact time of the activity intervention delivered over 6 months. Primary outcome measures were function, a short physical performance battery comprising balance and mobility, and the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living scale. Secondary outcome measures were quality of life, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item short form, mood, Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), physical activity, Auckland Heart Study Physical Activity Questionnaire, and self-report of falls. Repeated measures analyses tested the differential impact on outcomes over 12 months’ follow-up. RESULTS The mean age of the participants was 81 years, and 59% were women. All participants scored in the at–risk category on the depression screen, 53% had a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders or International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision diagnosis of major depression or scored more than 4 on the GDS-15 at baseline, indicating moderate or severe depression. Almost all participants, 187 (97%), completed the trial. Overall there were no differences in the impact of the 2 interventions on outcomes. Mood and mental health related quality of life improved for both groups. CONCLUSION he DeLLITE activity program improved mood and quality of life for older people with depressive symptoms as much as the effect of social visits. Future social and activity interventions should be tested against a true usual care control.

Phenotypical characterisation of the isolated Norfolk Island population focusing on epidemiological indicators of cardiovascular disease

Objectives Only 193 people from Pitcairn Island, all descended from 9 ‘Bounty’ mutineers and 12 Tahitian women, moved to the uninhabited Norfolk Island in 1856. Our objective was to assess the population of Norfolk Island, several thousand km off the eastern coast of Australia, as a genetic isolate of potential use for cardiovascular disease (CVD) gene mapping. Methods A total of 602 participants, approximately two thirds of the island’s present adult population, were characterized for a panel of CVD risk factors. Statistical power and heritability were calculated. Results Norfolk Islander’s possess an increased prevalence of hypertension, obesity and multiple CVD risk factors when compared to outbred Caucasian populations. 64% of the study participants were descendents of the island’s original founder population. Triglycerides, cholesterol, and blood pressures all had heritabilities above 0.2. Conclusions The Norfolk land population is a potentially useful genetic isolate for gene mapping studies aimed at identifying CVD risk factor quantitative trait loci (QTL).

Association analysis of somatostatin receptor (SSTR1 and SSTR2) polymorphisms in breast cancer and solar keratosis

The presence of somatostatin receptors (SSTR1-5) in tumour cells indicates a potential for somatostatin to bind and suppress growth, as well as allowing for therapeutic treatment with somatostatin analogues. The genes for SSTR1 and SSTR2 have been shown to contain dinucleotide repeat polymorphisms. We have performed association studies on breast cancer and solar keratosis populations to determine whether these genes play a role in the development of these conditions. Results showed that there was no significant difference between SSTR1 and SSTR2 polymorphism frequencies in the tested breast cancer population (P = 0.59 and P = 0.54, respectively) nor the solar keratosis population (P = 0.10 and P = 0.883, respectively) as compared to unaffected populations. Hence, these studies do not support a role for these receptor genes in either breast cancer or solar keratosis lesions.

BoP and MNCs: where is the market and where the source of innovation?

ln 2004 Prahalad made managers aware of the great economic opportunity that the population at the BoP (Base of the Pyramid) could represent for business in the tom of new potential consumers. However, MNCs (Multi-National Corporations) have continued to fail in penetrating low income markets, arguably because applied strategies are often the same adopted at the top of the pyramid. Even in those few cases where products get re-envisioned, theie introduction in contexts of extreme poverty only induces new needs and develops new dependencies. At best the rearrangement of business models by MNCs has meant the realization of CSR (Corporate Social Responsibly) schemes that have validity from a marketing perspective, but still lack the crucial element of social embeddedness (London & Hart, 2004). Today the challenge is lo reach the lowest population tier with reinvented business models based on principles of value co-creation. Starting from a view of the potential consumer at the BoP as a ring of continuity in the value chain process – a resource that can itself produce value - this paper concludes proposing an alternative innovative approach to operate in developing markets that overturns the roles of MNCs and the BoP. The proposed perspective of ‘reversed' source of innovation and primary target market builds on two fundamental tenets: traditional knowledge is rich and greatly unexploded, and markets at the lop of the pyramid are saturated with unnecessary products / practices that have lost contact with the natural environment.

BoP and MNCs: where is the market and where the source of innovation?

ln 2004 Prahalad made managers aware of the great economic opportunity that the population at the BoP (Base of the Pyramid) could represent for business in the tom of new potential consumers. However, MNCs (Multi-National Corporations) have continued to fail in penetrating low income markets, arguably because applied strategies are often the same adopted at the top of the pyramid. Even in those few cases where products get re-envisioned, theie introduction in contexts of extreme poverty only induces new needs and develops new dependencies. At best the rearrangement of business models by MNCs has meant the realization of CSR (Corporate Social Responsibly) schemes that have validity from a marketing perspective, but still lack the crucial element of social embeddedness (London & Hart, 2004). Today the challenge is lo reach the lowest population tier with reinvented business models based on principles of value co-creation. Starting from a view of the potential consumer at the BoP as a ring of continuity in the value chain process – a resource that can itself produce value - this paper concludes proposing an alternative innovative approach to operate in developing markets that overturns the roles of MNCs and the BoP. The proposed perspective of ‘reversed' source of innovation and primary target market builds on two fundamental tenets: traditional knowledge is rich and greatly unexploded, and markets at the lop of the pyramid are saturated with unnecessary products / practices that have lost contact with the natural environment.

How Can Models of Motor Control Be Useful for Understanding Low Back Pain?

Introduction. The purpose of this chapter is to address the question raised in the chapter title. Specifically, how can models of motor control help us understand low back pain (LBP)? There are several classes of models that have been used in the past for studying spinal loading, stability, and risk of injury (see Reeves and Cholewicki (2003) for a review of past modeling approaches), but for the purpose of this chapter we will focus primarily on models used to assess motor control and its effect on spine behavior. This chapter consists of 4 sections. The first section discusses why a shift in modeling approaches is needed to study motor control issues. We will argue that the current approach for studying the spine system is limited and not well-suited for assessing motor control issues related to spine function and dysfunction. The second section will explore how models can be used to gain insight into how the central nervous system (CNS) controls the spine. This segues segue nicely into the next section that will address how models of motor control can be used in the diagnosis and treatment of LBP. Finally, the last section will deal with the issue of model verification and validity. This issue is important since modelling accuracy is critical for obtaining useful insight into the behavior of the system being studied. This chapter is not intended to be a critical review of the literature, but instead intended to capture some of the discussion raised during the 2009 Spinal Control Symposium, with some elaboration on certain issues. Readers interested in more details are referred to the cited publications.