Property development cycle and acquisition strategies

This presenation is part of the UDIA (Qld) Property Development Essentials program, which is a two-day introductory course designed for new entrants to the property industry. The course provides practical advice and direction for those looking to take the first steps into the development industry. This presentation identifies economic factors and their influence on land acquisitions, as well as providing an understanding the property development and business cycles and their impacts on acquisition strategies (long v. short term projects)

Assessing the impact of floods and flood legislation on residential property prices

The changing development and population sprawl in major cities, especially those located in high rainfall areas, has resulted in the need to review and re-assess potential flood impacts in these cities. In many cases these new flood lines and flood maps have placed residential property that was previously considered to be flood free to now be considered to be potentially flood liable. Previous research based in Sydney and the UK has identified the fact that residential property that has been subject to flooding has a decreased price and higher investment risk than flood free property in the same location. These studies have also shown that the greatest impact on residential property subject to flooding is just following a flood event. In June 2009, Brisbane City Council released revised flood maps for the Greater Brisbane region and these maps have identified areas that have not previously been considered flood liable. This paper will analyse the sale performance of flood liable streets in the main flood areas of Brisbane over the period January 1990 through to June 2009, to determine the variation in price for these flood liable areas to the residential property immediately adjoining them. The average sale price will be tracked on both a geographic location and socio-economic basis.

Contesting ‘sustainability’ in infrastructure planning : The debate of the public interest in Brisbane’s Boggo Road Busway development

Sustainable infrastructure demands that declared principles of sustainability are enacted in the processes of its implementation. However, a problem arises if the concept of sustainability is not thoroughly scrutinised in the planning process. The public interest could be undermined when the rhetoric of sustainability is used to substantiate a proposed plan. This chapter analyses the manifestation of sustainable development in the Boggo Road Busway Plan in Brisbane, Australia against the sustainability agenda set in the South East Queensland Regional and Transport Plans. Although the construction of the Busway was intended to improve public transport access in the region, its implementation drew significant environmental concerns. Local community groups contested the ‘sustainability’ concept deployed in Queensland’s infrastructure planning. Their challenges resulted in important concessions in the delivery of the Busway plan. This case demonstrates that principles of sustainable infrastructure should be measurable and that local communities be better informed in order to fulfil the public interest in regional planning.

Challenges in land use planning around Australian airports

The privatization of major Australian airports in the late 1990s unleashed an unprecedented development wave as corporate lessees implemented ambitious business plans. While planning and environmental regulations governing on-airport development were significantly enhanced, there has been national disquiet about a governance regime that remains under the auspices of the federal government and is not effectively integrated into state and local decision-making machinery. Tensions in major airport regions have been exacerbated by the building of highly conspicuous non-aeronautical developments approved with no determining input by local decision-makers as well as the growing pressures on off-airport locations for aviation-related development. This paper canvasses this context and overviews the evolving structure of planning controls for Australia’s privatized federal airports. A range of issues surfacing through the National Aviation Policy Review process in 2008–2009 is described.

Knowledge-based approach for planning healthy cities : the case of Logan-Beaudesert, Australia

Introduction - The planning for healthy cities faces significant challenges due to lack of effective information, systems and a framework to organise that information. Such a framework is critical in order to make accessible and informed decisions for planning healthy cities. The challenges for planning healthy cities have been magnified by the rise of the healthy cities movement, as a result of which, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and knowledge-based decisions. Some studies have suggested that the use of a ‘knowledge-based’ approach to planning will enhance the accuracy and quality decision-making by improving the availability of data and information for health service planners and may also lead to increased collaboration between stakeholders and the community. A knowledge-based or evidence-based approach to decision-making can provide an ‘out-of-the-box’ thinking through the use of technology during decision-making processes. Minimal research has been conducted in this area to date, especially in terms of evaluating the impact of adopting knowledge-based approach on stakeholders, policy-makers and decision-makers within health planning initiatives. Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to present an integrated method that has been developed to facilitate a knowledge-based decision-making process to assist health planning Methodology – Specifically, the paper describes the participatory process that has been adopted to develop an online Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Decision Support System (DSS) for health planners. Value – Conceptually, it is an application of Healthy Cities and Knowledge Cities approaches which are linked together. Specifically, it is a unique settings-based initiative designed to plan for and improve the health capacity of Logan-Beaudesert area, Australia. This setting-based initiative is named as the Logan-Beaudesert Health Coalition (LBHC). Practical implications - The paper outlines the application of a knowledge-based approach to the development of a healthy city. Also, it focuses on the need for widespread use of this approach as a tool for enhancing community-based health coalition decision making processes.

Complex Urban Systems

Presentation about research projects that build understanding of urban design and interactions and plan for future opportunities. What do we need to model?

Development and implementation of the areawide Dynamic ROad traffic NoisE (DRONE) simulator

This paper discusses the areawide Dynamic ROad traffic NoisE (DRONE) simulator, and its implementation as a tool for noise abatement policy evaluation. DRONE involves integrating a road traffic noise estimation model with a traffic simulator to estimate road traffic noise in urban networks. An integrated traffic simulation-noise estimation model provides an interface for direct input of traffic flow properties from simulation model to noise estimation model that in turn estimates the noise on a spatial and temporal scale. The output from DRONE is linked with a geographical information system for visual representation of noise levels in the form of noise contour maps.

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior

In order to examine time allocation patterns within household-level trip-chaining, simultaneous doubly-censored Tobit models are applied to model time-use behavior within the context of household activity participation. Using the entire sample and a sub-sample of worker households from Tucson's Household Travel Survey, two sets of models are developed to better understand the phenomena of trip-chaining behavior among five types of households: single non-worker households, single worker households, couple non-worker households, couple one-worker households, and couple two-worker households. Durations of out-of-home subsistence, maintenance, and discretionary activities within trip chains are examined. Factors found to be associated with trip-chaining behavior include intra-household interactions with the household types and their structure and household head attributes.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

The comparison of international and local sustainable assessment tools of landscape design for housing estate developments : case of Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand

Various countries have been introducing sustainable assessment tools for real estate design to produce integrated sustainability components not just for the building, but also the landscape component of the development. This paper aims to present the comparison between international and local assessment tools of landscape design for housing estate developments in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), Thailand. The methodologies used are to review, then compare and identify discrepancy indicators among the tools. This paper will examine four international tools; LEED for Neighbourhood Development (LEED – ND) of United State of America (USA), EnviroDevelopment standards of Australia, Residential Landscape Sustainability of United Kingdom (UK) and Green Mark for Infrastructure of Singapore; and three BMR’s existing tools; Land Subdivision Act B.E. 2543, Environmental Impact Assessment Monitoring Awards (EIA-MA) and Thai’s Rating for Energy and Environmental Sustainability of New construction and major renovation (TREES-NC). The findings show that there are twenty two elements of three categories which are neighbourhood design, community management, and environmental condition. Moreover, only one element in neighbourhood designs different between the international and local tools. The sustainable assessment tools have existed in BMR but they are not complete in only one assessment tool. Thus, the development of new comprehensive assessment tool will be necessary in BMR; however, it should meet the specific environment and climate condition for housing estate development at BMR.

The urban littoral frontier : land reclamation in the history of human settlements

The urban waterfront may be regarded as the littoral frontier of human settlement. Typically, over the years, it advances, sometimes retreats, where terrestrial and aquatic processes interact and frequently contest this margin of occupation. Because most towns and cities are sited beside water bodies, many of these urban centers on or close to the sea, their physical expansion is constrained by the existence of aquatic areas in one or more directions from the core. It is usually much easier for new urban development to occur along or inland from the waterfront. Where other physical constraints, such as rugged hills or mountains, make expansion difficult or expensive, building at greater densities or construction on steep slopes is a common response. This kind of development, though technically feasible, is usually more expensive than construction on level or gently sloping land, however. Moreover, there are many reasons for developing along the shore or riverfront in preference to using sites further inland. The high cost of developing existing dry land that presents serious construction difficulties is one reason for creating new land from adjacent areas that are permanently or periodically under water. Another reason is the relatively high value of artificially created land close to the urban centre when compared with the value of existing developable space at a greater distance inland. The creation of space for development is not the only motivation for urban expansion into aquatic areas. Commonly, urban places on the margins of the sea, estuaries, rivers or great lakes are, or were once, ports where shipping played an important role in the economy. The demand for deep waterfronts to allow ships to berth and for adjacent space to accommodate various port facilities has encouraged the advance of the urban land area across marginal shallows in ports around the world. The space and locational demands of port related industry and commerce, too, have contributed to this process. Often closely related to these developments is the generation of waste, including domestic refuse, unwanted industrial by-products, site formation and demolition debris and harbor dredgings. From ancient times, the foreshore has been used as a disposal area for waste from nearby settlements, a practice that continues on a huge scale today. Land formed in this way has long been used for urban development, despite problems that can arise from the nature of the dumped material and the way in which it is deposited. Disposal of waste material is a major factor in the creation of new urban land. Pollution of the foreshore and other water margin wetlands in this way encouraged the idea that the reclamation of these areas may be desirable on public health grounds. With reference to examples from various parts of the world, the historical development of the urban littoral frontier and its effects on the morphology and character of towns and cities are illustrated and discussed. The threat of rising sea levels and the heritage value of many waterfront areas are other considerations that are addressed.