An intuitive dashboard for Bayesian network inference

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

First flush analysis in urban catchments

The effectiveness of structural elements employed for stormwater mitigation such as bioretention basins and constructed wetlands depend on the compatibility between their design specifications and actual stormwater quality and quantity characteristics. These structural elements are commonly designed to accommodate the initial portion of runoff considering the occurrence of first flush. Therefore, the effectiveness of stormwater quality treatment primarily depends on the in-depth knowledge of the first flush phenomenon and the ability to provide appropriate treatment. The current scientific knowledge relating to first flush is limited primarily due to research investigations being undertaken based on lumped rainfall and runoff parameters. This paper presents the outcomes of an in-depth study undertaken of the first flush phenomenon using a set of indicators which are not only innovative, but is also able to accurately represent the characteristics of the different sectors in a runoff hydrograph. The analysis undertaken confirmed that pollutant wash-off during the initial 10% of runoff volume was critical for the occurrence of first flush. Typically first flush was found to last up to 40% of the runoff volume. The study outcomes provide new knowledge to enhance the effectiveness of structural stormwater treatment measures.

Selecting rainfall events for effective Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) implementation

The current approach for protecting the receiving water environment from urban stormwater pollution is the adoption of structural measures commonly referred to as Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD). The treatment efficiency of WSUD measures closely depends on the design of the specific treatment units. As stormwater quality can be influenced by rainfall characteristics, the selection of appropriate rainfall events for treatment design is essential to ensure the effectiveness of WSUD systems. Based on extensive field investigation of four urban residential catchments and computer modelling, this paper details a technically robust approach for the selection of rainfall events for stormwater treatment design using a three-component model. The modelling outcomes indicate that selecting smaller average recurrence interval (ARI) events with high intensity-short duration as the threshold for the treatment system design is the most feasible since these events cumulatively generate a major portion of the annual pollutant load compared to the other types of rainfall events, despite producing a relatively smaller runoff volume. This implies that designs based on small and more frequent rainfall events rather than larger rainfall events would be appropriate in the context of efficiency in treatment performance, cost-effectiveness and possible savings in land area needed.

Planning for sustainability of non motorised public transport in a developing city

Most large cities around the world are undergoing rapid transport sector development to cater for increased urbanization. Subsequently the issues of mobility, access equity, congestion, operational safety and above all environmental sustainability are becoming increasingly crucial in transport planning and policy making. The popular response in addressing these issues has been demand management, through improvement of motorised public transport (MPT) modes (bus, train, tram) and non-motorized transport (NMT) modes (walk, bicycle); improved fuel technology. Relatively little attention has however been given to another readily available and highly sustainable component of the urban transport system, non-motorized public transport (NMPT) such as the pedicab that operates on a commercial basis and serves as an NMT taxi; and has long standing history in many Asian cities; relatively stable in existence in Latin America; and reemerging and expanding in Europe, North America and Australia. Consensus at policy level on the apparent benefits, costs and management approach for NMPT integration has often been a major transport planning problem. Within this context, this research attempts to provide a more complete analysis of the current existence rationale and possible future, or otherwise, of NMPT as a regular public transport system. The analytical process is divided into three major stages. Stage 1 reviews the status and role condition of NMPT as regular public transport on a global scale- in developing cities and developed cities. The review establishes the strong ongoing and future potential role of NMPT in major developing cities. Stage 2 narrows down the status review to a case study city of a developing country in order to facilitate deeper role review and status analysis of the mode. Dhaka, capital city of Bangladesh, has been chosen due to its magnitude of NMPT presence. The review and analysis reveals the multisectoral and dominant role of NMPT in catering for the travel need of Dhaka transport users. The review also indicates ad-hoc, disintegrated policy planning in management of NMPT and the need for a planning framework to facilitate balanced integration between NMPT and MT in future. Stage 3 develops an integrated, multimodal planning framework (IMPF), based on a four-step planning process. This includes defining the purpose and scope of the planning exercise, determining current deficiencies and preferred characteristics for the proposed IMPF, selection of suitable techniques to address the deficiencies and needs of the transport network while laying out the IMPF and finally, development of a delivery plan for the IMPF based on a selected layout technique and integration approach. The output of the exercise is a planning instrument (decision tool) that can be used to assign a road hierarchy in order to allocate appropriate traffic to appropriate network type, particularly to facilitate the operational balance between MT and NMT. The instrument is based on a partial restriction approach of motorised transport (MT) and NMT, structured on the notion of functional hierarchy approach, and distributes/prioritises MT and NMT such that functional needs of the network category is best complemented. The planning instrument based on these processes and principles offers a six-level road hierarchy with a different composition of network-governing attributes and modal priority, for the current Dhaka transport network, in order to facilitate efficient integration of NMT with MT. A case study application of the instrument on a small transport network of Dhaka also demonstrates the utility, flexibility and adoptability of the instrument in logically allocating corridors with particular positions in the road hierarchy paradigm. Although the tool is useful in enabling balanced distribution of NMPT with MT at different network levels, further investigation is required with reference to detailed modal variations, scales and locations of a network to further generalise the framework application.

Investigating the factors influencing cyclist awareness and behaviour : an on-road study of cyclist situation awareness

Situation awareness, ones understanding of ‘what is going on’, is a critical commodity for road users. Although the concept has received much attention in the driving context, situation awareness in vulnerable road users, such as cyclists, remains unexplored. This paper presents the findings from an exploratory on-road study of cyclist situation awareness, the aim of which was to explore how cyclists develop situation awareness, what their situation awareness comprises, and what the causes of degraded cyclist situation awareness may be. Twenty participants cycled a pre-defined urban on-road study route. A range of data were collected, including verbal protocols, forward scene video and rear video, and a network analysis procedure was used to describe and assess cyclist situation awareness. The analysis produced a number of key findings regarding cyclist situation awareness, including the potential for cyclists’ awareness of other road users to be degraded due to additional situation awareness and decision making requirements that are placed on them in certain road situations. Strategies for improving cyclists’ situation awareness are discussed.

Lane filtering and situation awareness in motorcyclists : an on-road proof of concept study

In Victoria, as in other jurisdictions, there is very little research on the potential risks and benefits of lane filtering by motorcyclists, particularly from a road safety perspective. This on-road proof of concept study aimed to investigate whether and how lane filtering influences motorcycle rider situation awareness at intersections and to address factors that need to be considered for the design of a larger study in this area. Situation awareness refers to road users’ understanding of ‘what is going on’ around them and is a critical commodity for safe performance. Twenty-five experienced motorcyclists rode their own instrumented motorcycle around an urban test route in Melbourne whilst providing verbal protocols. Lane filtering occurred in 27% of 43 possible instances in which there were one or more vehicles in the traffic queue and the traffic lights were red on approach to the intersection. A network analysis procedure, based on the verbal protocols provided by motorcyclists, was used to identify differences in motorcyclist situation awareness between filtering and non-filtering events. Although similarities in situation awareness across filtering and nonfiltering motorcyclists were found, the analysis revealed some differences. For example, filtering motorcyclists placed more emphasis on the timing of the traffic light sequence and on their own actions when moving to the front of the traffic queue, whilst non-filtering motorcyclists paid greater attention to traffic moving through the intersection and approaching from behind. Based on the results of this study, the paper discusses some methodological and theoretical issues to be addressed in a larger study comparing situation awareness between filtering and non-filtering motorcyclists.

Context matters : Violence against women and reporting to police in rural, suburban and urban areas

Despite plentiful efforts to identify perpetrator, victim, and incident characteristics correlated with reporting violence against women to police, few studies have addressed the contexts that shape such reporting. Even fewer have examined variations in these contexts across geographic areas. Drawing upon National Crime Victimization Survey data from 1992 through 2009, this paper uses conjunctive analysis of case configurations to identify and investigate the dominant situational contexts of reporting of violence against women to police across rural, suburban, and urban areas. Our findings show that context matters and the importance of incident, perpetrator, and victim characteristics vary across geographic areas.

Vote with your feet : hyperlocal polling for urban screens

Vote with Your Feet is a hyperlocal polling tool for urban screens that lets users express their opinion on current affairs. Similar to vox populi interviews on TV, it is meant to reflect the mindset of the community and its diversity. It shows one Yes/No question at a time and lets the user vote by stepping with their foot on one of two physical buttons. By not only displaying the local but also national results (taken from newspaper polls or TV news), it creates a sense of place and can spark offline conversations as well as making people think about their own opinion. As a tangible media installation that bridges physical and digital urban layers, the project empowers citizens and facilitates a bottom-up approach in terms of stimulating opinions and decision making (rather than broadcasting or automating). In a second iteration of the design, we want to encourage users to submit their own questions.

The impact of incidents on macroscopic fundamental diagram

Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) has been proved to exist in large urban road and freeway networks by theoretic method and real data in cities. However hysteresis and scatters have also been found existed both on motorway network and urban road. This paper investigates how the incident variables affect the scatter and shape of the MFD using both the simulated data and the real data collected from the Pacific Motorway M3 in Brisbane, Australia. Three key components of incident are investigated based on the simulated data: incident location, incident duration time and traffic demand. Results based on the simulated data indicate that MFD shape is a property not only of the network itself but also of the incident characteristics variables. MFDs for three types of real incidents (crash, hazard and breakdown) are explored separately. The results based on the empirical data are consistent with the simulated results. The hysteresis phenomenon occurs on both the upstream and the downstream of the incident location, but for opposite hysteresis loops. Gradient of the MFD for the upstream is more than that for the downstream on the incident site, when traffic demand is off peak.

Fuel consumption and gas emissions of an automatic transmission vehicle following simple eco-driving instructions on urban roads

Following eco-driving instructions can reduce fuel consumption between 5 to 20% on urban roads with manual cars. The majority of Australian cars have an automatic transmission gear-box. It is therefore of interest to verify whether current eco-driving instructions are e cient for such vehicles. In this pilot study, participants (N=13) drove an instrumented vehicle (Toyota Camry 2007) with an automatic transmission. Fuel consumption of the participants was compared before and after they received simple eco-driving instructions. Participants drove the same vehicle on the same urban route under similar tra c conditions. We found that participants drove at similar speeds during their baseline and eco-friendly drives, and reduced the level of their accelerations and decelerations during eco-driving. Fuel consumption decreased for the complete drive by 7%, but not on the motorway and inclined sections of the study. Gas emissions were estimated with the VT-micro model, and emissions of the studied pollutants (CO2, CO, NOX and HC) were reduced, but no di erence was observed for CO2 on the motorway and inclined sections. The di erence for the complete lap is 3% for CO2. We have found evidence showing that simple eco-driving instructions are e cient in the case of automatic transmission in an urban environment, but towards the lowest values of the spectrum of fuel consumption reduction from the di erent eco-driving studies.

Environmental sustainability of urban road transport : an integrated analysis for life cycle emission impact

Despite of significant contributions of urban road transport to global economy and society, it is one of the largest sources of local and global emission impact. In order to address the environmental concerns of urban road transport it is imperative to achieve a holistic understanding of contributory factors causing emissions which requires a complete look onto its whole life cycle. Previous studies were mainly based on segmental views which mostly studied environmental impacts of individual transport modes and very few considered impacts other than operational phase. This study develops an integrated life cycle inventory model for urban road transport emissions from a holistic modal perspective. Singapore case was used to demonstrate the model. Results show that total life cycle greenhouse gas emission from Singapore’s road transport sector is 7.8 million tons per year. The total amount of criteria air pollutants are also estimated in this study.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network Framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

Urban consolidation : reality or fantasy

Urban consolidation has been a policy objective of many local and state governments in Australia for the past decade. Densification of city centres and other identified activity centres is a sensible solution to a plethora of policy objectives including: growth management, housing affordability, housing choice and infrastructure utilisation etc whilst preserving the fabric of existing neighbourhoods. However despite the plethora of supportive policies and ripe redevelopment sites, urban sprawl continues to permeate city fringes and affordable urban densification in the post GFC environment slips into the “too hard” basket. This article discusses current issues facing the development industry, highlighting factors contributing to the disequilibrium between demand and supply in the medium to high density residential markets.

Regulation of the Fear Network by Mediators of Stress: Norepinephrine Alters the Balance between Cortical and Subcortical Afferent Excitation of the Lateral Amygdala

Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning involves the integration of information about an acoustic conditioned stimulus (CS) and an aversive unconditioned stimulus in the lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA). The auditory CS reaches the LA subcortically via a direct connection from the auditory thalamus and also from the auditory association cortex itself. How neural modulators, especially those activated during stress, such as norepinephrine (NE), regulate synaptic transmission and plasticity in this network is poorly understood. Here we show that NE inhibits synaptic transmission in both the subcortical and cortical input pathway but that sensory processing is biased toward the subcortical pathway. In addition binding of NE to β-adrenergic receptors further dissociates sensory processing in the LA. These findings suggest a network mechanism that shifts sensory balance toward the faster but more primitive subcortical input