Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change. Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009. Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002. In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region. This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.

Locally weighted learning model predictive control for nonlinear and time varying dynamics

This paper proposes an online learning control system that uses the strategy of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach, named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC), is proposed as a solution to learn to control robotic systems with nonlinear and time varying dynamics. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online learning while controlling the joint trajectories of a low cost, three degree of freedom elastic joint robot. The learning performance is investigated in both an initial learning phase, and when the system dynamics change due to a heavy object added to the tool point. The experiment on the real elastic joint robot is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system with and without the object. The results highlight the capability of the learning control system to accommodate the lack of mechanical consistency and linearity in a low cost robot arm.

Foot massage versus quiet presence on agitation and mood in people with dementia : a randomised controlled trial

Background There is increasing interest in using complementary and alternative treatments to manage behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia such as agitation, aggression and depressed mood. Objective To compare the effect of foot massage (intervention) and quiet presence (control) on agitation and mood in people with dementia. Design A randomised controlled trial using a within-subjects, crossover design. Settings Five long-term care facilities in Brisbane, Australia. The primary outcome was the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) and the secondary outcome was the Observed Emotion Rating Scale (OERS). The screening and data collection research assistants, families, and care staff were blinded to participant allocation. Participants Participants of the study were 55 long-term care residents aged 74–103 years (mean age 86.5), with moderate to severe dementia and a history of agitated behaviour according to the Pittsburgh Agitation Scale. A computer-program randomised participants to 10-min foot massage (intervention) or quiet presence (control), every weekday for 3 weeks. Results A carry-over effect was identified in the data, and so the data was treated as a parallel groups RCT. The mean total CMAI increased in both groups (reflecting an increase in agitation) with this increase greater in the quiet presence group than the foot massage group (p=0.03). There was a trend towards a difference on OERS General Alertness, with a positive change in alertness for participants in the foot massage group (indicating reduced alertness) and a negative change for participants in the quiet presence group (indicating increased alertness) (F(1,51)=3.88, p=0.05, partial ή2=0.07). Conclusions The findings highlight the need for further research on the specific conditions under which massage might promote relaxation and improve mood for people with dementia. The unfamiliar research assistants and variations in usual activity may have contributed to the increase in agitation and this needs further research.

Foot massage and physiological stress in people with dementia : a randomized controlled trial

Background There is increasing interest in using complementary and alternative treatments to manage behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia such as agitation, aggression and depressed mood. Objective To compare the effect of foot massage (intervention) and quiet presence (control) on agitation and mood in people with dementia. Design A randomised controlled trial using a within-subjects, crossover design. Settings Five long-term care facilities in Brisbane, Australia. The primary outcome was the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) and the secondary outcome was the Observed Emotion Rating Scale (OERS). The screening and data collection research assistants, families, and care staff were blinded to participant allocation. Participants Participants of the study were 55 long-term care residents aged 74–103 years (mean age 86.5), with moderate to severe dementia and a history of agitated behaviour according to the Pittsburgh Agitation Scale. A computer-program randomised participants to 10-min foot massage (intervention) or quiet presence (control), every weekday for 3 weeks. Results A carry-over effect was identified in the data, and so the data was treated as a parallel groups RCT. The mean total CMAI increased in both groups (reflecting an increase in agitation) with this increase greater in the quiet presence group than the foot massage group (p=0.03). There was a trend towards a difference on OERS General Alertness, with a positive change in alertness for participants in the foot massage group (indicating reduced alertness) and a negative change for participants in the quiet presence group (indicating increased alertness) (F(1,51)=3.88, p=0.05, partial ή2=0.07). Conclusions The findings highlight the need for further research on the specific conditions under which massage might promote relaxation and improve mood for people with dementia. The unfamiliar research assistants and variations in usual activity may have contributed to the increase in agitation and this needs further research.

A coordinated voltage control approach for coordination of OLTC, voltage regulator and DG to regulate voltage in a distribution feeder

Integration of small-scale electricity generators, known as Distributed Generation (DG), into the distribution networks has become increasingly popular at the present. This tendency together with the falling price of synchronous-type generator has potential to give the DG a better chance in participating in the voltage regulation process together with other devices already available in the system. The voltage control issue turns out to be a very challenging problem for the distribution engineers since existing control coordination schemes would need to be reconsidered to take into account the DG operation. In this paper, we propose a control coordination technique, which is able to utilize the ability of the DG as a voltage regulator, and at the same time minimizes interaction with other active devices, such as On-load Tap Changing Transformer (OLTC) and voltage regulator. The technique has been developed based on the concept of control zone, Line Drop Compensation (LDC), as well as the choice of controller's parameters. Simulations carried out on an Australian system show that the technique is suitable and flexible for any system with multiple regulating devices including DG.

A preliminary study of the effects of Tai Chi and Qigong medical exercise on indicators of metabolic syndrome, glycaemic control, health-related quality of life, and psychological health in adults with elevated blood glucose

Objectives To evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and effects of a Tai Chi and Qigong exercise programme in adults with elevated blood glucose. Design, Setting, and Participants A single group pre–post feasibility trial with 11 participants (3 male and 8 female; aged 42–65 years) with elevated blood glucose. Intervention Participants attended Tai Chi and Qigong exercise training for 1 to 1.5 h, 3 times per week for 12 weeks, and were encouraged to practise the exercises at home. Main Outcome Measures Indicators of metabolic syndrome (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol); glucose control (HbA1c, fasting insulin and insulin resistance (HOMA)); health-related quality of life; stress and depressive symptoms. Results There was good adherence and high acceptability. There were significant improvements in four of the seven indicators of metabolic syndrome including BMI (mean difference −1.05, p<0.001), waist circumference (−2.80 cm, p<0.05), and systolic (−11.64 mm Hg, p<0.01) and diastolic blood pressure (−9.73 mm Hg, p<0.001), as well as in HbA1c (−0.32%, p<0.01), insulin resistance (−0.53, p<0.05), stress (−2.27, p<0.05), depressive symptoms (−3.60, p<0.05), and the SF-36 mental health summary score (5.13, p<0.05) and subscales for general health (19.00, p<0.01), mental health (10.55, p<0.01) and vitality (23.18, p<0.05). Conclusions The programme was feasible and acceptable and participants showed improvements in metabolic and psychological variables. A larger controlled trial is now needed to confirm these promising preliminary results.

Stiffness-damping matching method of an ECAS system based on LQG control

A novel method of matching stiffness and continuous variable damping of an ECAS (electronically controlled air suspension) based on LQG (linear quadratic Gaussian) control was proposed to simultaneously improve the road-friendliness and ride comfort of a two-axle school bus. Taking account of the suspension nonlinearities and target-height-dependent variation in suspension characteristics, a stiffness model of the ECAS mounted on the drive axle of the bus was developed based on thermodynamics and the key parameters were obtained through field tests. By determining the proper range of the target height for the ECAS of the fully-loaded bus based on the design requirements of vehicle body bounce frequency, the control algorithm of the target suspension height (i.e., stiffness) was derived according to driving speed and road roughness. Taking account of the nonlinearities of a continuous variable semi-active damper, the damping force was obtained through the subtraction of the air spring force from the optimum integrated suspension force, which was calculated based on LQG control. Finally, a GA (genetic algorithm)-based matching method between stepped variable damping and stiffness was employed as a benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of the LQG-based matching method. Simulation results indicate that compared with the GA-based matching method, both dynamic tire force and vehicle body vertical acceleration responses are markedly reduced around the vehicle body bounce frequency employing the LQG-based matching method, with peak values of the dynamic tire force PSD (power spectral density) decreased by 73.6%, 60.8% and 71.9% in the three cases, and corresponding reduction are 71.3%, 59.4% and 68.2% for the vehicle body vertical acceleration. A strong robustness to variation of driving speed and road roughness is also observed for the LQG-based matching method.

Information systems development outsourcing : the role of control configurations

The Control Theory has provided a useful theoretical foundation for Information Systems development outsourcing (ISD-outsourcing) to examine the co-ordination between the client and the vendor. Recent research identified two control mechanisms: structural (structure of the control mode) and process (the process through which the control mode is enacted). Yet, the Control Theory research to-date does not describe the ways in which the two control mechanisms can be combined to ensure project success. Grounded in case study data of eight ISD-outsourcing projects, we derive three ‘control configurations’; i) aligned, ii) negotiated, and 3) self-managed, which describe the combinative patterns of structural and process control mechanisms within and across control modes.

Sensorimotor and postural control factors associated with driving safety in a community-dwelling older driver population

Background. To establish whether sensorimotor function and balance are associated with on-road driving performance in older adults. Methods. The performance of 270 community-living adults aged 70–88 years recruited via the electoral roll was measured on a battery of peripheral sensation, strength, flexibility, reaction time, and balance tests and on a standardized measure of on-road driving performance. Results. Forty-seven participants (17.4%) were classified as unsafe based on their driving assessment. Unsafe driving was associated with reduced peripheral sensation, lower limb weakness, reduced neck range of motion, slow reaction time, and poor balance in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor vibration sensitivity, reduced quadriceps strength, and increased sway on a foam surface with eyes closed as significant and independent risk factors for unsafe driving. These variables classified participants into safe and unsafe drivers with a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 70%. Conclusions. A number of sensorimotor and balance measures were associated with driver safety and the multivariate model comprising measures of sensation, strength, and balance was highly predictive of unsafe driving in this sample. These findings highlight important determinants of driver safety and may assist in developing efficacious driver safety strategies for older drivers.

Theory-based self-management programs for promoting recovery in community-dwelling stroke survivors : a systematic review

Background Post-stroke recovery is demanding. Increasing studies have examined the effectiveness of self-management programs for stroke survivors. However no systematic review has been conducted to summarize the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs. Objectives The aim is to present the best available research evidence about effectiveness of theory-based self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. Inclusion criteria Types of participants All community-residing adults aged 18 years or above, and had a clinical diagnosis of stroke. Types of interventions Studies which examined effectiveness of a self-management program underpinned by a theoretical or conceptual framework for community-dwelling stroke survivors. Types of studies Randomized controlled trials. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes included health-related quality of life and self-management behaviors. Secondary outcomes included physical (activities of daily living), psychological (self-efficacy, depressive symptoms), and social outcomes (community reintegration, perceived social support). Search Strategy A three-step approach was adopted to identify all relevant published and unpublished studies in English or Chinese. Methodological quality The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for experimental studies. Data Collection A standardized JBI data extraction form was used. There was no disagreement between the two reviewers on the data extraction results. Data Synthesis There were incomplete details about the number of participants and the results in two studies, which makes it impossible to perform meta-analysis. A narrative summary of the effectiveness of stroke self-management programs is presented. Results Three studies were included. The key issues of concern in methodological quality included insufficient information about random assignment, allocation concealment, reliability and validity of the measuring instruments, absence of intention-to-treat analysis, and small sample sizes. The three programs were designed based on the Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program and were underpinned by the principles of self-efficacy. One study showed improvement in the intervention group in family and social roles three months after program completion, and work productivity at six months as measured by the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale (SSQOL). The intervention group also had an increased mean self-efficacy score in communicating with physicians six months after program completion. The mean changes from baseline in these variables were significantly different from the control group. No significant difference was found in time spent in aerobic exercise between the intervention and control groups at three and six months after program completion. Another study, using SSQOL, showed a significant interaction effect by treatment and time on family roles, fine motor tasks, self-care, and work productivity. However there was no significant interaction by treatment and time on self-efficacy. The third study showed improvement in quality of life, community participation, and depressive symptoms among the participants receiving the stroke self-management program, Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program, or usual care six months after program completion. However, there was no significant difference between the groups. Conclusions There is inconclusive evidence about the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. However the preliminary evidence suggests potential benefits in improving stroke survivors’ quality of life and self-efficacy.

Validation of β-actin used as endogenous control for gene expression analysis in mechanobiology studies : amendments

We write in response to the letter by Liu et al. [1] commenting on our article, ‘‘Mesenchymal Stem Cells Regulate Angiogenesis According to Their Mechanical Environment’’ [2]. The study by Liu et al. demonstrates that the commonly used endogeneous reference gene (ERG), b-actin, is upregulated by mechanical loading, indicating a potential bias in the determined target gene expression when normalizing to b-actin, such as in our report on unchanged vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and hypoxia-inducible factors (HIF)-1a mRNA levels in mechanically loaded mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs).

Space-time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh

Objective:  To examine the space-time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan). Methods:  We obtained data on monthly suspected DF cases and deaths by district in Bangladesh for the period of 2000–2009 from Directorate General of Health Services. Population and district boundary data of each district were collected from national census managed by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. To identify the space-time clusters of DF transmission a discrete Poisson model was performed using SaTScan software. Results:  Space-time distribution of DF transmission was clustered during three periods 2000–2002, 2003–2005 and 2006–2009. Dhaka was the most likely cluster for DF in all three periods. Several other districts were significant secondary clusters. However, the geographical range of DF transmission appears to have declined in Bangladesh over the last decade. Conclusion:  There were significant space-time clusters of DF in Bangladesh over the last decade. Our results would prompt future studies to explore how social and ecological factors may affect DF transmission and would also be useful for improving DF control and prevention programs in Bangladesh.

Coordinated control of grid connected photovoltaic reactive power and battery energy storage systems to improve the voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) as well as increasing peak load demand has resulted in poor voltage profile for some residential distribution networks. This paper proposes coordinated use of PV and Battery Energy Storage (BES) to address voltage rise and/or dip problems. The reactive capability of PV inverter combined with droop based BES system is evaluated for rural and urban scenarios (having different R/X ratios). Results show that reactive compensation from PV inverters alone is sufficient to maintain acceptable voltage profile in an urban scenario (low resistance feeder), whereas, coordinated PV and BES support is required for the rural scenario (high resistance feeder). Constant as well as variable droop based BES schemes are analyzed. The required BES sizing and associated cost to maintain the acceptable voltage profile under both schemes is presented. Uncertainties in PV generation and load are considered, with probabilistic estimation of PV generation and randomness in load modeled to characterize the effective utilization of BES. Actual PV generation data and distribution system network data is used to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

The CLIMATE schools combined study : a cluster randomised controlled trial of a universal Internet-based prevention program for youth substance misuse, depression and anxiety

Background Anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders account for three quarters of the disability attributed to mental disorders and frequently co-occur. While programs for the prevention and reduction of symptoms associated with (i) substance use and (ii) mental health disorders exist, research is yet to determine if a combined approach is more effective. This paper describes the study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention, a universal approach to preventing substance use and mental health problems among adolescents. Methods/design Participants will consist of approximately 8400 students aged 13 to 14-years-old from 84 secondary schools in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, Australia. The schools will be cluster randomised to one of four groups; (i) CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention; (ii) CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use; (iii) CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health, or (iv) Control (Health and Physical Education as usual). The primary outcomes of the trial will be the uptake and harmful use of alcohol and other drugs, mental health symptomatology and anxiety, depression and substance use knowledge. Secondary outcomes include substance use related harms, self-efficacy to resist peer pressure, general disability, and truancy. The link between personality and substance use will also be examined. Discussion Compared to students who receive the universal CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use, or CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health or the Control condition (who received usual Health and Physical Education), we expect students who receive the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention to show greater delays to the initiation of substance use, reductions in substance use and mental health symptoms, and increased substance use and mental health knowledge

Birth control : to what extent do women report being informed and involved in decisions about pregnancy and birth procedures?

Background: Health policy, guidelines, and standards advocate giving patients comprehensive information and facilitating their involvement in health-related decision-making. Routine assessment of patient reports of these processes is needed. Our objective was to examine decision-making processes, specifically information provision and consumer involvement in decision-making, for nine pregnancy, labour, and birth procedures, as reported by maternity care consumers in Queensland, Australia. Methods: Participants were women who had a live birth in Queensland in a specified time period and were not found to have had a baby that died since birth, who completed the extended Having a Baby in Queensland Survey, 2010 about their maternity care experiences, and who reported at least one of the nine procedures of interest. For each procedure, women answered two questions that measured perceived (i) receipt of information about the benefits and risks of the procedure and (ii) role in decision-making about the procedure. Results: In all, 3,542 eligible women (34.2%) completed the survey. Between 4% (for pre-labour caesarean section) and 60% (for vaginal examination) of women reported not being informed of the benefits and risks of the procedure they experienced. Between 2% (epidural) and 34% (episiotomy) of women reported being unconsulted in decision-making. Over one quarter (26%) of the women who experienced episiotomy reported being neither informed nor consulted. Conclusions: There is an urgent need for interventions that facilitate information provision and consumer involvement in decision-making about several perinatal procedures, especially those performed within the time-limited intrapartum care episode.