Model as you do : engaging an S-BPM vendor on process modelling in 3D virtual worlds

Accurate process model elicitation continues to be a time consuming task, requiring skill on the part of the interviewer to extract explicit and tacit process information from the interviewee. Many errors occur in this elicitation stage that would be avoided by better activity recall, more consistent specification methods and greater engagement in the elicitation process by interviewees. Metasonic GmbH has developed a process elicitation tool for their process suite. As part of a research engagement with Metasonic, staff from QUT, Australia have developed a 3D virtual world approach to the same problem, viz. eliciting process models from stakeholders in an intuitive manner. This book chapter tells the story of how QUT staff developed a 3D Virtual World tool for process elicitation, took the outcomes of their research project to Metasonic for evaluation, and finally, Metasonic’s response to the initial proof of concept.

A methodological exploration to determine transportation disadvantage variables: the partial least square approach

Determining the key variables of transportation disadvantage remains a great challenge as the variables are commonly selected using ad-hoc techniques. In order to identify the variables, this research develops a transportation disadvantage framework by manipulating the capability approach. Developed framework is statistically analysed using partial least square-based software to determine the framework fitness. The statistical analysis identifies mobility and socioeconomic variables that significantly influence transportation disadvantage. The research reveals the key socioeconomic variables for transportation disadvantage in the case of Brisbane, Australia as household structure, presence of dependent family member, vehicle ownership, and driving licence possession.

Uncertainty quantification applied to the performance analysis of a conical diffuser

This paper offers an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study applied to the performance analysis of the ERCOFTAC conical diffuser. A deterministic CFD solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalised Polynomial Chaos(gPC)representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. Such approach has the advantage to not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic field. The stochactic results highlihgt the importance of the inlet velocity uncertainties on the pressure recovery both alone and when coupled with a second uncertain variable. From a theoretical point of view, we investigate the possibility to build our gPC representation on arbitray grid, thus increasing the flexibility of the stochastic framework.

Statistical methods for electromyography data and associated problems

This thesis proposes three novel models which extend the statistical methodology for motor unit number estimation, a clinical neurology technique. Motor unit number estimation is important in the treatment of degenerative muscular diseases and, potentially, spinal injury. Additionally, a recent and untested statistic to enable statistical model choice is found to be a practical alternative for larger datasets. The existing methods for dose finding in dual-agent clinical trials are found to be suitable only for designs of modest dimensions. The model choice case-study is the first of its kind containing interesting results using so-called unit information prior distributions.

Interventions to control nosocomial infections : study designs and statistical issues

There is a wide range of potential study designs for intervention studies to decrease nosocomial infections in hospitals. The analysis is complex due to competing events, clustering, multiple timescales and time-dependent period and intervention variables. This review considers the popular pre-post quasi-experimental design and compares it with randomized designs. Randomization can be done in several ways: randomization of the cluster [intensive care unit (ICU) or hospital] in a parallel design; randomization of the sequence in a cross-over design; and randomization of the time of intervention in a stepped-wedge design. We introduce each design in the context of nosocomial infections and discuss the designs with respect to the following key points: bias, control for nonintervention factors, and generalizability. Statistical issues are discussed. A pre-post-intervention design is often the only choice that will be informative for a retrospective analysis of an outbreak setting. It can be seen as a pilot study with further, more rigorous designs needed to establish causality. To yield internally valid results, randomization is needed. Generally, the first choice in terms of the internal validity should be a parallel cluster randomized trial. However, generalizability might be stronger in a stepped-wedge design because a wider range of ICU clinicians may be convinced to participate, especially if there are pilot studies with promising results. For analysis, the use of extended competing risk models is recommended.

Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000

BACKGROUND This paper describes the first national burden of disease study for South Africa. The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, i.e. years of life lost (YLLs). In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, i.e. the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed. METHOD Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted. The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and AIDS model. The non-AIDS cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLL estimates. RESULTS The top single cause of mortality burden was HIV/AIDS followed by homicide, tuberculosis, road traffic accidents and diarrhoea. HIV/AIDS accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%). Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and injuries 16% of YLLs. The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the burden of disease, especially with regard to unintentional injuries, respiratory disease, and nervous system, mental and sense organ disorders. The impact of HIV/AIDS is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010. CONCLUSION This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause. South Africa is experiencing a quadruple burden of disease comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging chronic diseases, injuries, and HIV/AIDS. Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to HIV/AIDS can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years. An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Explicit finite element modelling of bridge girder bearing pedestals

Bridge girder bearings rest on pedestals to transfer the loading safely to the pier headstock. In spite of the existence of industry guidelines, due to construction complexities, such guidelines are often overlooked. Further, there is paucity of research on the performance of pedestals, although their failure could cause exorbitant maintenance costs. Although reinforced concrete pedestals are recommended in the industry design guidelines, unreinforced concrete and/ or epoxy glue pedestals are provided due to construction issues; such pedestals fail within a very short period of service. With a view to understanding the response of pedestals subject to monotonic loading, a three-dimensional nonlinear explicit finite element micro-model of unreinforced and reinforced concrete pedestals has been developed. Contact and material nonlinearity have been accounted for in the model. It is shown that the unreinforced concrete pedestals suffer from localised edge stress singularities, the failure of which was comparable to those in the field. The reinforced concrete pedestals, on the other hand, distribute the loading without edge stress singularity, again conforming to the field experience.

Hydrochemical evolution and groundwater flow processes in the Galilee and Eromanga basins, Great Artesian Basin, Australia: A multivariate statistical approach

The Galilee and Eromanga basins are sub-basins of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB). In this study, a multivariate statistical approach (hierarchical cluster analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis) is carried out to identify hydrochemical patterns and assess the processes that control hydrochemical evolution within key aquifers of the GAB in these basins. The results of the hydrochemical assessment are integrated into a 3D geological model (previously developed) to support the analysis of spatial patterns of hydrochemistry, and to identify the hydrochemical and hydrological processes that control hydrochemical variability. In this area of the GAB, the hydrochemical evolution of groundwater is dominated by evapotranspiration near the recharge area resulting in a dominance of the Na–Cl water types. This is shown conceptually using two selected cross-sections which represent discrete groundwater flow paths from the recharge areas to the deeper parts of the basins. With increasing distance from the recharge area, a shift towards a dominance of carbonate (e.g. Na–HCO3 water type) has been observed. The assessment of hydrochemical changes along groundwater flow paths highlights how aquifers are separated in some areas, and how mixing between groundwater from different aquifers occurs elsewhere controlled by geological structures, including between GAB aquifers and coal bearing strata of the Galilee Basin. The results of this study suggest that distinct hydrochemical differences can be observed within the previously defined Early Cretaceous–Jurassic aquifer sequence of the GAB. A revision of the two previously recognised hydrochemical sequences is being proposed, resulting in three hydrochemical sequences based on systematic differences in hydrochemistry, salinity and dominant hydrochemical processes. The integrated approach presented in this study which combines different complementary multivariate statistical techniques with a detailed assessment of the geological framework of these sedimentary basins, can be adopted in other complex multi-aquifer systems to assess hydrochemical evolution and its geological controls.

Three-dimensional geological modelling of the Galilee and central Eromanga basins, Australia: New insights into aquifer/aquitard geometry and potential influence of faults on inter-connectivity

Study region The Galilee and Eromanga basins are located in central Queensland, Australia. Both basins are components of the Great Artesian Basin which host some of the most significant groundwater resources in Australia. Study focus This study evaluates the influence of regional faults on groundwater flow in an aquifer/aquitard interbedded succession that form one of the largest Artesian Basins in the world. In order to assess the significance of regional faults as potential barriers or conduits to groundwater flow, vertical displacements of the major aquifers and aquitards were studied at each major fault and the general hydraulic relationship of units that are juxtaposed by the faults were considered. A three-dimensional (3D) geological model of the Galilee and Eromanga basins was developed based on integration of well log data, seismic surfaces, surface geology and elevation data. Geological structures were mapped in detail and major faults were characterised. New hydrological insights for the region Major faults that have been described in previous studies have been confirmed within the 3D geological model domain and a preliminary assessment of their hydraulic significance has been conducted. Previously unknown faults such as the Thomson River Fault (herein named) have also been identified in this study.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.