A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Lattice-based completely non-malleable PKE in the standard model

This paper presents ongoing work toward constructing efficient completely non-malleable public-key encryption scheme based on lattices in the standard (common reference string) model. An encryption scheme is completely non-malleable if it requires attackers to have negligible advantage, even if they are allowed to transform the public key under which the related message is encrypted. Ventre and Visconti proposed two inefficient constructions of completely non-malleable schemes, one in the common reference string model using non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs, and another using interactive encryption schemes. Recently, two efficient public-key encryption schemes have been proposed, both of them are based on pairing identity-based encryption.

A flexible optimisation model for the railway crew scheduling problem

Addressing the Crew Scheduling Problem (CSP) in transportation systems can be too complex to capture all details. The designed models usually ignore or simplify features which are difficult to formulate. This paper proposes an alternative formulation using a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) approach to the problem. The optimisation model integrates the two phases of pairing generation and pairing optimisation by simultaneously sequencing trips into feasible duties and minimising total elapsed time of any duty. Crew scheduling constraints in which the crew have to return to their home depot at the end of the shift are included in the model. The flexibility of this model comes in the inclusion of the time interval of relief opportunities, allowing the crew to be relieved during a finite time interval. This will enhance the robustness of the schedule and provide a better representation of real-world conditions.

Enhancement of 1,2-dehydration of alcohols by alkali cations and protons : a model for dehydration of carbohydrates

We have used electronic structure calculations to investigate the 1,2-dehydration of alcohols as a model for water loss during the pyrolysis of carbohydrates found in biomass. Reaction enthalpies and energy barriers have been calculated for neat alcohols, protonated alcohols and alcohols complexed to alkali metal ions (Li + and Na +). We have estimated pre-exponential A factors in order to obtain gas phase rate constants. For neat alcohols, the barrier to 1,2-dehydration is about 67 kcal mol -1, which is consistent with the limited experimental data. Protonation and metal complexation significantly reduce this activation barrier and thus, facilitate more rapid reaction. With the addition of alkali metals, the rate of dehydration can increase by a factor of 10 8 while addition of a proton can lead to an increase of a factor of 10 23.

Radiative and total heat transfer measurements to a Titan Explorer model

Radiative and total heat transfer at the flow stagnation point of a 1:40.8 binary scaled model of the Titan Explorer vehicle were measured in the X3 expansion tube. Results from the current study illustrated that with the addition of CH4 into a N2 test gas radiative heat transfer could be detected. For a test gas of 5% CH4 and 95% N2, simulating an atmospheric model for Titanic aerocapture, approximately 4% of the experimentally measured total stagnation point heat transfer was found to be due to radiation. This was in comparison to < 1% measured for a test gas of pure nitrogen. When scaled to the flight vehicle, experimental results indicate a 64% contribution of radiation (test gas 5% CH4/95% N2). Previous numerical results however have predicted this contribution to be between 80-92%. Thus, experimental results from the current study suggest that numerical analyses are over-predicting the radiative heat transfer on the flight vehicle.

Informing engineering education for sustainable development using a deliberative dynamic model for curriculum renewal

Literature from around the world clearly suggests that engineering education has been relatively slow to incorporate significant knowledge and skill areas, including the rapidly emerging area of sustainable development. Within this context, this paper presents the findings of research that questioned how engineering educators could consistently implement systematic and intentional curriculum renewal that is responsive to emerging engineering challenges and opportunities. The paper presents a number of elements of systematic and intentional curriculum renewal that have been empirically distilled from a qualitative multiple-method iterative research approach including literature review, narrative enquiry, pilot trials and peer-review workshops undertaken by the authors with engineering educators from around the world. The paper also presents new knowledge arising from the research, in the form of a new model that demonstrates a dynamic and deliberative mechanism for strategically accelerating for curriculum renewal efforts. Specifically the paper discusses implications of this model to achieve education for sustainable development, across all disciplines of engineering. It concludes with broader research and practice implications for the field of education research.

Residential balconies with road traffic noise : a combined source image and radiosity model

Several significant studies have been made in recent decades toward understanding road traffic noise and its effects on residential balconies. These previous studies have used a variety of techniques such as theoretical models, scale models and measurements on real balconies. The studies have considered either road traffic noise levels within the balcony space or inside an adjacent habitable room or both. Previous theoretical models have used, for example, simplified specular reflection calculations, boundary element methods (BEM), adaptations of CoRTN or the use of Sabine Theory. This paper presents an alternative theoretical model to predict the effects of road traffic noise spatially within the balcony space. The model includes a specular reflection component by calculating up to 10 orders of source images. To account for diffusion effects, a two compartment radiosity component is utilised. The first radiosity compartment is the urban street, represented as a street with building facades on either side. The second radiosity compartment is the balcony space. The model is designed to calculate the predicted road traffic noise levels within the balcony space and is capable of establishing the effect of changing street and balcony geometries. Screening attenuation algorithms are included to determine the effects of solid balcony parapets and balcony ceiling shields.

Nonlinear container ship model for the study of parametric roll resonance

Parametric roll is a critical phenomenon for ships, whose onset may cause roll oscillations up to +-40 degrees, leading to very dangerous situations and possibly capsizing. Container ships have been shown to be particularly prone to parametric roll resonance when they are sailing in moderate to heavy head seas. A Matlab/Simulink parametric roll benchmark model for a large container ship has been implemented and validated against a wide set of experimental data. The model is a part of a Matlab/Simulink Toolbox (MSS, 2007). The benchmark implements a 3rd-order nonlinear model where the dynamics of roll is strongly coupled with the heave and pitch dynamics. The implemented model has shown good accuracy in predicting the container ship motions, both in the vertical plane and in the transversal one. Parametric roll has been reproduced for all the data sets in which it happened, and the model provides realistic results which are in good agreement with the model tank experiments.

Ability of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein 2 to enhance bone healing in the presence of tobramycin : evaluation in a rat segmental defect model

Objective To determine whether locally applied tobramycin influences the ability of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein 2 (rhBMP-2) to heal a segmental defect in the rat femur. Methods The influence of tobramycin on the osteogenic differentiation of mesenchymal stem cells was first evaluated in vitro. For the subsequent, in vivo experiments, a 5-mm segmental defect was created in the right femur of each of 25 Sprague-Dawley rats and stabilized with an external fixator and four Kirschner wires. Rats were divided in four groups: empty control, tobramycin (11 mg)/absorbable collagen sponge, rhBMP-2 (11 μg)/absorbable collagen sponge, and rhBMP-2/absorbable collagen sponge with tobramycin. Bone healing was monitored by radiography at 3 and 8 weeks. Animals were euthanized at 8 weeks and the properties of the defect were compared with the intact contralateral femur. Bone formation in the defect region was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, microcomputed tomography, histology, and mechanical testing. Results Tobramycin exerted a dose-dependent inhibition of alkaline phosphatase induction and calcium deposition by mesenchymal stem cells cultured under osteogenic conditions. The inhibition was reversed in the presence of 500 ng/mL of rhBMP-2. Segmental defects in the rat femora failed to heal in the absence of rhBMP-2. Tobramycin exerted no inhibitory effects on the ability of rhBMP-2 to heal these defects and increased the bone area of the defects treated with rhBMP-2. Data obtained from all other parameters of healing, including dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, microcomputed tomography, histology, and mechanical testing, were unaffected by tobramycin. Conclusions Although our in vitro results suggested that tobramycin inhibits the osteogenic differentiation of mesenchymal stem cells, this could be overcome by rhBMP-2. Tobramycin did not impair the ability of rhBMP-2 to heal critical-sized femoral defects in rats. Indeed, bone area was increased by nearly 20% in the rhBMP-2 group treated with tobramycin. This study shows that locally applied tobramycin can be used in conjunction with rhBMP-2 to enhance bone formation at fracture sites.

Antibodies mediate formation of neutrophil extracellular traps in the middle ear and facilitate secondary pneumococcal otitis media

Otitis media (OM) (a middle ear infection) is a common childhood illness that can leave some children with permanent hearing loss. OM can arise following infection with a variety of different pathogens, including a coinfection with influenza A virus (IAV) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus). We and others have demonstrated that coinfection with IAV facilitates the replication of pneumococci in the middle ear. Specifically, we used a mouse model of OM to show that IAV facilitates the outgrowth of S. pneumoniae in the middle ear by inducing middle ear inflammation. Here, we seek to understand how the host inflammatory response facilitates bacterial outgrowth in the middle ear. Using B cell-deficient infant mice, we show that antibodies play a crucial role in facilitating pneumococcal replication. We subsequently show that this is due to antibody-dependent neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation in the middle ear, which, instead of clearing the infection, allows the bacteria to replicate. We further demonstrate the importance of these NETs as a potential therapeutic target through the transtympanic administration of a DNase, which effectively reduces the bacterial load in the middle ear. Taken together, these data provide novel insight into how pneumococci are able to replicate in the middle ear cavity and induce disease.

A prospective model of care for breast cancer rehabilitation : bone health and arthralgias

Musculoskeletal health can be compromised by breast cancer treatment. In particular, bone loss and arthralgias are prevalent side effects experienced by women treated with chemotherapy and/or adjuvant endocrine therapy. Bone loss leads to osteoporosis and related fractures, while arthralgias threaten quality of life and compliance to treatment. Because the processes that lead to these musculoskeletal problems are initiated when treatment begins, early identification of women who may be at higher risk of developing problems, routine monitoring of bone density and pain at certain stages of treatment, and prudent application of therapeutic interventions are key to preventing and/or minimizing musculoskeletal sequelae. Exercise may be a particularly suitable intervention strategy because of its potential to address a number of impairments; it may slow bone loss, appears to reduce joint pain in noncancer conditions, and improves other breast cancer outcomes. Research efforts continue in the areas of etiology, measurement, and treatment of bone loss and arthralgias. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the management and treatment of bone loss and arthralgias in breast cancer survivors and to present a framework for rehabilitation care to preserve musculoskeletal health in women treated for breast cancer.

Applying a validation framework to a working airport terminal model

Validation is an important issue in the development and application of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models, especially when the outcome of the model cannot be directly observed. Despite this, few frameworks for validating BBNs have been proposed and fewer have been applied to substantive real-world problems. In this paper we adopt the approach by Pitchforth and Mengersen (2013), which includes nine validation tests that each focus on the structure, discretisation, parameterisation and behaviour of the BBNs included in the case study. We describe the process and result of implementing a validation framework on a model of a real airport terminal system with particular reference to its effectiveness in producing a valid model that can be used and understood by operational decision makers. In applying the proposed validation framework we demonstrate the overall validity of the Inbound Passenger Facilitation Model as well as the effectiveness of the validity framework itself.

A jurisprudential model for sustainable water resources governance

The legal arrangements for the management of water resources are currently a complex matrix of rules of various kinds. These rules perform a diverse range of functions. Some are part of what may be described as the macro-legal system for the governance of water resources. This includes paralegal rules in the form of statements of value, objective, outcome or principles . Others are part of the micro-legal system for the governance of water resources. This includes traditional legal rules in the form of statements of standards in relation to individual conduct, behaviour or decision making. These legal arrangements may be international, regional, national or local. Accordingly some apply to nation states within the international community. Others apply to the regulatory agencies making decisions about water resources within nation states. Ultimately most of these legal arrangements apply to those who use and develop water resources for particular purposes and in particular locations. In accordance with this framework, rules explain how water resources should be used in particular circumstances and how decisions should be made to ensure the effective planning and regulation of water resources.

Challenges for implementation of a new model of collaborative design management: Analyzing the impact of human factor

The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Even following the advent of BIM, we continue to move from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behaviour-related issues which impact the adoption and utilization of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector, and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it, are a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.