Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Enhancing sense of recovery and self-reflectivity in people with schizophrenia : a pilot study of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy

Objective This study investigated the effectiveness of an innovative, manualized psychotherapy aimed at enhancing recovery and self-experience in people with schizophrenia, Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy. Design Treatment effects were assessed using a mixed methodology. Data were quantitatively assessed using a single sample, pre- and post-therapy design and qualitatively assessed using a case-study methodology. Methods Eleven patients diagnosed with schizophrenia received Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy over the course of 11 to 26 months. Therapists were seven supervised postgraduate psychology students. On average patients attended 49 sessions over the course of therapy. Patients completed interview-based and self-report measures for general and treatment-specific outcomes at pre-, mid-, and post-treatment. Results Quantitative analyses showed that patients significantly improved on the general outcome of subjective recovery, as well as the treatment-specific outcome of self-reflectivity, with medium to large effect sizes. Case-study evidence also showed improvements for some patients in symptom severity, and narrative coherence and complexity. Conclusions These results are consistent with previous case-study evidence and suggest that this manualized version of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy produces general and approach-specific improvements for people with schizophrenia. Replication is needed to ascertain its effectiveness with a larger sample size and within a controlled design.

Self-efficacy moderation and mediation roles on BPSD and social support influences on subjective caregiver burden in Chinese spouse caregivers of dementia patients

Background: This study aims to explore moderation and mediation roles of caregiver self-efficacy between subjective caregiver burden and (a) behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPSD) of dementia; and (b) social support. Methods: A cross-sectional study with 137 spouse caregivers of dementia patients was conducted in Shanghai. We collected demographic information for the caregiver–patient dyads, as well as information associated with dementia-related impairments, caregiver social support, caregiver self-efficacy, and SF-36. Results: Multiple regression analysis showed that caregiver self-efficacy was a moderator both between BPSD and subjective caregiver burden, and social support and subjective caregiver burden. Results also showed a partial mediation effect of caregiver self-efficacy on the impact of BPSD on subjective caregiver burden, and a mediation effect of social support on subjective caregiver burden. Caregiver self-efficacy and subjective burden significantly influenced BPSD and social support. Conclusion: Caregiver self-efficacy played an important role in the paths by which the two factors influenced subjective burden. Enhancing caregiver self-efficacy for symptom management (particularly BPSD) can be an essential strategy for determining interventions to support dementia caregivers in China, and possibly in other countries.

Self-management programs in stage 1-4 chronic kidney disease : a literature review.

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a complex health problem, which requires individuals to invest considerable time and energy in managing their health and adhering to multifaceted treatment regimens. Objectives To review studies delivering self-management interventions to people with CKD (Stages 1–4) and assess whether these interventions improve patient outcomes. Design: Systematic review. Methods Nine electronic databases (MedLine, CINAHL, EMBASE, ProQuest Health & Medical Complete, ProQuest Nursing & Allied Health, The Cochrane Library, The Joanna Briggs Institute EBP Database, Web of Science and PsycINFO) were searched using relevant terms for papers published between January 2003 and February 2013. Results The search strategy identified 2,051 papers, of which 34 were retrieved in full with only 5 studies involving 274 patients meeting the inclusion criteria. Three studies were randomised controlled trials, a variety of methods were used to measure outcomes, and four studies included a nurse on the self-management intervention team. There was little consistency in the delivery, intensity, duration and format of the self-management programmes. There is some evidence that knowledge- and health-related quality of life improved. Generally, small effects were observed for levels of adherence and progression of CKD according to physiologic measures. Conclusion The effectiveness of self-management programmes in CKD (Stages 1–4) cannot be conclusively ascertained, and further research is required. It is desirable that individuals with CKD are supported to effectively self-manage day-to-day aspects of their health.

Application of a theoretical framework to foster a cardiac-diabetes self-management programme

AIM: This paper analyses and illustrates the application of Bandura's self-efficacy construct to an innovative self-management programme for patients with both type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease. BACKGROUND: Using theory as a framework for any health intervention provides a solid and valid foundation for aspects of planning and delivering such an intervention; however, it is reported that many health behaviour intervention programmes are not based upon theory and are consequently limited in their applicability to different populations. The cardiac-diabetes self-management programme has been specifically developed for patients with dual conditions with the strategies for delivering the programme based upon Bandura's self-efficacy theory. This patient group is at greater risk of negative health outcomes than that with a single chronic condition and therefore requires appropriate intervention programmes with solid theoretical foundations that can address the complexity of care required. SOURCES OF EVIDENCE: The cardiac-diabetes self-management programme has been developed incorporating theory, evidence and practical strategies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides explicit knowledge of the theoretical basis and components of a cardiac-diabetes self-management programme. Such detail enhances the ability to replicate or adopt the intervention in similar or differing populations and/or cultural contexts as it provides in-depth understanding of each element within the intervention. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of the concepts alone is not sufficient to deliver a successful health programme. Supporting patients to master skills of self-care is essential in order for patients to successfully manage two complex, chronic illnesses. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE OR HEALTH POLICY: Valuable information has been provided to close the theory-practice gap for more consistent health outcomes, engaging with patients for promoting holistic care within organizational and cultural contexts.

Management of atopic dermatitis in children : evaluation of parents' self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance using the Child Eczema Management Questionnaire

Child behaviour management is crucial to successful treatment of atopic dermatitis. This study tested relationships between parents’ self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance when caring for a child with atopic dermatitis. Using a cross-sectional study design, a community-based convenience sample of 120 parents participated in pilot-testing of the Child Eczema Management Questionnaire - a self-administered questionnaire which appraises parents’ self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance when managing atopic dermatitis. Overall, parents’ self-reported confidence and success with performing routine management tasks was greater than that for managing their child’s symptoms and behaviour. Therewas a positive relationship between time since diagnosis and self-reported performance of routine management tasks; however, success with managing the child’s symptoms and behaviour did not improve with illness duration. Longer time since diagnosis was also associated with more positive outcome expectations of performing tasks that involved others in the child’s care (i.e. healthcare professionals, or the child themselves). This study provides the foundation for further research examining relationships between child, parent, and family psychosocial variables, parent management of atopic dermatitis, and child health outcomes. Improved understanding of these relationships will assist healthcare providers to better support parents and families caring for children with atopic dermatitis. KEYWORDS

Social support, self-efficacy, trauma and well-being in emergency medical dispatchers

Emergency Medical Dispatchers (EMDs) respond to crisis calls for ambulance; they dispatch paramedics and provide emotional and medical assistance to callers. Despite the stressful nature and exposure to potentially traumatising events in this role, there has been no published research specifically investigating well-being or posttraumatic growth among EMDs. Extrapolating from research conducted among other emergency services workers (e. g., paramedics, police), literature attests to the importance of self efficacy and social support in promoting mental health in emergency service workers. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of self efficacy, and giving and receiving social support on psychological well-being, posttraumatic growth (PTG), and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Sixty EMDs (50% response rate) completed an online questionnaire. Three hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to ascertain predictors of well-being, PTG and PTSD. Receiving social support emerged as a significant positive predictor of well-being and PTG, and a significant negative predictor of PTSD. Self efficacy was found to significantly and positively predict well-being, and shift-work was found to significantly and negatively predict PTSD. These results highlight that self efficacy and receiving social support are likely to be important for enhancing well-being within this population, and that receiving social support is also likely to facilitate positive post-trauma responses. Such findings have implications for the way emergency service personnel are educated with reference to aspects of mental health and how best to support personnel in order to achieve optimal mental health outcomes for all.

Challenges in improving chronic disease survivorship outcomes using tele-health and self-managed online solutions

The advances in modern information and communication (ICT) technology continue to address the challenges and improve` health outcomes for the survivors of chronic disease such as prostate cancer. The management of survivorship is increasingly becoming an important need for the survivors to manage their chronic conditions. The technology interventions such as tele-health as well as self-managed technology applications have shown a potential to improve survivorship outcomes. However, the application of these tools should be supported by strong health economics evidence. This work discusses the challenges of technology led survivorship care models and presents an integrated approach to address these challenges.

Addressing factory needs in cane variety selection

Cane fibre content has increased over the past ten years. Some of that increase can be attributed to new varieties selected for release. This paper reviews the existing methods for quantifying the fibre characteristics of a variety, including fibre content and fibre quality measurements – shear strength, impact resistance and short fibre content. The variety selection process is presented and it is reported that fibre content has zero weighting in the current selection index. An updated variety selection approach is proposed, potentially replacing the existing selection process relating to fibre. This alternative approach involves the use of a more complex mill area level model that accounts for harvesting, transport and processing equipment, taking into account capacity, efficiency and operational impacts, along with the end use for the bagasse. The approach will ultimately determine a net economic value for the variety. The methodology lends itself to a determination of the fibre properties that have a significant impact on the economic value so that variety tests can better target the critical properties. A low-pressure compression test is proposed as a good test to provide an assessment of the impact of a variety on milling capacity. NIR methodology is proposed as a technology to lead to a more rapid assessment of fibre properties, and hence the opportunity to more comprehensively test for fibre impacts at an earlier stage of variety development.

Choice impulsivity: Definitions, measurement issues, and clinical implications

Background Impulsivity critically relates to many psychiatric disorders. Given the multifaceted construct that impulsivity represents, defining core aspects of impulsivity is vital for the assessment and understanding of clinical conditions. Choice impulsivity (CI), involving the preferential selection of smaller sooner rewards over larger later rewards, represents one important type of impulsivity. Method The International Society for Research on Impulsivity (InSRI) convened to discuss the definition and assessment of CI and provide recommendations regarding measurement across species. Results Commonly used preclinical and clinical CI behavioral tasks are described, and considerations for each task are provided to guide CI task selection. Differences in assessment of CI (self-report, behavioral) and calculating CI indices (e.g., area-under-the-curve, indifference point, steepness of discounting curve) are discussed along with properties of specific behavioral tasks used in preclinical and clinical settings. Conclusions The InSRI group recommends inclusion of measures of CI in human studies examining impulsivity. Animal studies examining impulsivity should also include assessments of CI and these measures should be harmonized in accordance with human studies of the disorders being modeled in the preclinical investigations. The choice of specific CI measures to be included should be based on the goals of the study and existing preclinical and clinical literature using established CI measures.

What women want : qualitative analysis of consumer evaluations of maternity care in Queensland, Australia

Background Maternity care reform plans have been proposed at state and national levels in Australia, but the extent to which these respond to maternity care consumers’ expressed needs is unclear. This study examines open-text survey comments to identify women’s unmet needs and priorities for maternity care. It is then considered whether these needs and priorities are addressed in current reform plans. Methods Women who had a live single or multiple birth in Queensland, Australia, in 2010 (n 3,635) were invited to complete a retrospective self-report survey. In addition to questions about clinical and interpersonal maternity care experiences from pregnancy to postpartum, women were asked an open-ended question “Is there anything else you’d like to tell us about having your baby?” This paper describes a detailed thematic analysis of open-ended responses from a random selection of 150 women (10% of 1,510 who responded to the question). Results Four broad themes emerged relevant to improving women’s experiences of maternity care: quality of care (interpersonal and technical); access to choices and involvement in decision-making; unmet information needs; and dissatisfaction with the care environment. Some of these topics are reflected in current reform goals, while others provide evidence of the need for further reforms. Conclusions The findings reinforce the importance of some existing maternity reform objectives, and describe how these might best be met. Findings affirm the importance of information provision to enable informed choices; a goal of Queensland and national reform agendas. Improvement opportunities not currently specified in reform agendas were also identified, including the quality of interpersonal relationships between women and staff, particular unmet information needs (e.g., breastfeeding), and concerns regarding the care environment (e.g., crowding and long waiting times).