Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Robust iris recognition using decision fusion and degradation modelling

This thesis investigates the use of fusion techniques and mathematical modelling to increase the robustness of iris recognition systems against iris image quality degradation, pupil size changes and partial occlusion. The proposed techniques improve recognition accuracy and enhance security. They can be further developed for better iris recognition in less constrained environments that do not require user cooperation. A framework to analyse the consistency of different regions of the iris is also developed. This can be applied to improve recognition systems using partial iris images, and cancelable biometric signatures or biometric based cryptography for privacy protection.

Modelling of the evaporation of a droplet suspended in a binary atmosphere

The process of spray drying is applied in a number of contexts. One such application is the production of a synthetic rock used for storage of nuclear waste. To establish a framework for a model of the spray drying process for this application, we here develop a model describing evaporation from droplets of pure water, such that the model may be extended to account for the presence of colloid within the droplet. We develop a spherically-symmetric model and formulate continuum equations describing mass, momentum, and energy balance in both the liquid and gas phases from first principles. We establish appropriate boundary conditions at the surface of the droplet, including a generalised Clapeyron equation that accurately describes the temperature at the surface of the droplet. To account for experiment design, we introduce a simplified platinum ball and wire model into the system using a thin wire problem. The resulting system of equations is transformed in order to simplify a finite volume solution scheme. The results from numerical simulation are compared with data collected for validation, and the sensitivity of the model to variations in key parameters, and to the use of Clausius–Clapeyron and generalised Clapeyron equations, is investigated. Good agreement is found between the model and experimental data, despite the simplicity of the platinum phase model.

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.

Atheroma: Is calcium important or not? A modelling study of stress within the atheromatous fibrous cap in relation to position and size of calcium deposits

Atheromatous plaque rupture h the cause of the majority of strokes and heart attacks in the developed world. The role of calcium deposits and their contribution to plaque vulnerability are controversial. Some studies have suggested that calcified plaque tends to be more stable whereas others have suggested the opposite. This study uses a finite element model to evaluate the effect of calcium deposits on the stress within the fibrous cap by varying their location and size. Plaque fibrous cap, lipid pool and calcification were modeled as hyperelastic, Isotropic, (nearly) incompressible materials with different properties for large deformation analysis by assigning time-dependent pressure loading on the lumen wall. The stress and strain contours were illustrated for each condition for comparison. Von Mises stress only increases up to 1.5% when varying the location of calcification in the lipid pool distant to the fibrous cap. Calcification in the fibrous cap leads to a 43% increase of Von Mises stress when compared with that in the lipid pool. An increase of 100% of calcification area leads to a 15% stress increase in the fibrous cap. Calcification in the lipid pool does not increase fibrous cap stress when it is distant to the fibrous cap, whilst large areas of calcification close to or in the fibrous cap may lead to a high stress concentration within the fibrous cap, which may cause plaque rupture. This study highlights the application of a computational model on a simulation of clinical problems, and it may provide insights into the mechanism of plaque rupture.

Statistical modelling and power analysis for detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads

The export of sediments from coastal catchments can have detrimental impacts on estuaries and near shore reef ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. Catchment management approaches aimed at reducing sediment loads require monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing loads over time. However, load estimation is not a trivial task due to the complex behaviour of constituents in natural streams, the variability of water flows and often a limited amount of data. Regression is commonly used for load estimation and provides a fundamental tool for trend estimation by standardising the other time specific covariates such as flow. This study investigates whether load estimates and resultant power to detect trends can be enhanced by (i) modelling the error structure so that temporal correlation can be better quantified, (ii) making use of predictive variables, and (iii) by identifying an efficient and feasible sampling strategy that may be used to reduce sampling error. To achieve this, we propose a new regression model that includes an innovative compounding errors model structure and uses two additional predictive variables (average discounted flow and turbidity). By combining this modelling approach with a new, regularly optimised, sampling strategy, which adds uniformity to the event sampling strategy, the predictive power was increased to 90%. Using the enhanced regression model proposed here, it was possible to detect a trend of 20% over 20 years. This result is in stark contrast to previous conclusions presented in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of particle deposition in idealized porous channels

This project provides a steppingstone to comprehend the mechanisms that govern particulate fouling in metal foam heat exchangers. The method is based on development of an advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics model in addition to performing analytical validation. This novel method allows an engineer to better optimize heat exchanger designs, thereby mitigating fouling, reducing energy consumption caused by fouling, economize capital expenditure on heat exchanger maintenance, and reduce operation downtime. The robust model leads to the establishment of an alternative heat exchanger configuration that has lower pressure drop and particulate deposition propensity.

Modelling growth rate of Penaeus monodon Fabricius in intensively managed ponds: effects of temperature, pond age and stocking density

Records of shrimp growth and water quality made during 12 crops from each of 48 ponds, over a period of 6.5 years, were provided by a Queensland, Australia, commercial shrimp farm, These data were analysed with a new growth model derived from the Gompertz model. The results indicate that water temperature, mortality and pond age significantly affect growth rates. After 180 days, shrimp reach 34 g at constant 30 degrees C, but only 15 g after the same amount of time at 20 degrees C. Mortality, through thinning the density of shrimp in the ponds, increased the growth rate, but the effect is small. With continual production, growth rates at first remained steady, then appeared to decrease for the sixth and seventh crop, after which they have increased steadily with each crop. It appears that conservative pond management, together with a gradual improvement in husbandry techniques, particularly feed management, brought about this change. This has encouraging implications for the long-term sustainability of the farming methods used. The growth model can be used to predict productivity, and hence, profitability, of new aquaculture locations or new production strategies.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: Ten years of cancer-registry-based surveillance

The Tasmanian Cancer Registry carried out population-based surveillance of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) from 1978 to 1987. A total of 8,651 NMSC were recorded in 7,160 individuals, representing an age-standardized rate of 161/100,000 per year. Ninety-four percent of cases were based on histological diagnosis. Incidence of basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) was higher than the incidence of squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC). The incidence of NMSC was twice as high in men as in women. Incidence increased substantially with age, more markedly for SCC than BCC. For most body sites, BCC was more frequent, but on highly exposed sites such as the backs of hands, lower limbs in women and ears in men, the incidence of SCC was higher. There was an overall increase of 7% per year in the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC. The increase was more marked for BCC than for SCC, and was consistent across age groups and both sexes. A first NMSC during the study period was associated with a 12-fold increase among men and a 15-fold increase among women in the risk of development of a new NMSC within 5 years, when compared with the NMSC incidence recorded for the population as a whole.

Agent-based modelling of worker interactions and related impacts on workplace dynamics

This study uses agent based modelling to simulate the worker interactions within a workplace and to investigate how the interactions can have impact on the workplace dynamics. Two new models (Bounded Confidence with Bias model and Relative Agreement with Bias model) are built based on the theoretical foundation of two existing models. A new factor, namely bias, is added into the new models which raises several issues to be studied.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

Clarification of the low-frequency modelling concept for marine craft

This article presents some remarks on models currently used in low speed manoeuvring and dynamic positioning problems. It discusses the relationship between the classical hydrodynamic equations for manoeuvring and seakeeping, and offers insight into the models used for simulation and control system design.

Inter-lamellar shear resistance confers compressive stiffness in the intervertebral disc: An image-based modelling study on the bovine caudal disc

The intervertebral disc withstands large compressive loads (up to nine times bodyweight in humans) while providing flexibility to the spinal column. At a microstructural level, the outer sheath of the disc (the annulus fibrosus) comprises 12–20 annular layers of alternately crisscrossed collagen fibres embedded in a soft ground matrix. The centre of the disc (the nucleus pulposus) consists of a hydrated gel rich in proteoglycans. The disc is the largest avascular structure in the body and is of much interest biomechanically due to the high societal burden of disc degeneration and back pain. Although the disc has been well characterized at the whole joint scale, it is not clear how the disc tissue microstructure confers its overall mechanical properties. In particular, there have been conflicting reports regarding the level of attachment between adjacent lamellae in the annulus, and the importance of these interfaces to the overall integrity of the disc is unknown. We used a polarized light micrograph of the bovine tail disc in transverse cross-section to develop an image-based finite element model incorporating sliding and separation between layers of the annulus, and subjected the model to axial compressive loading. Validation experiments were also performed on four bovine caudal discs. Interlamellar shear resistance had a strong effect on disc compressive stiffness, with a 40% drop in stiffness when the interface shear resistance was changed from fully bonded to freely sliding. By contrast, interlamellar cohesion had no appreciable effect on overall disc mechanics. We conclude that shear resistance between lamellae confers disc mechanical resistance to compression, and degradation of the interlamellar interface structure may be a precursor to macroscopic disc degeneration.

Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.