Development of health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: This study attempted to develop health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model was performed to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) in Brisbane. Results: In general, the higher the intensity and the longer the duration of a heatwave, the greater the health impacts. There was no apparent difference in EHAs risk during different periods of a warm season. However, there was a greater risk of mortality in the second half of a warm season than that in the first half. While elderly (>75 years)were particularly vulnerable to both the EHA and mortality effects of a heatwave, the risk for EHAs also significantly increased for two other age groups (0-64 years and 65-74 years) during severe heatwaves. Different patterns between cardiorespiratory mortality and EHAs were observed. Based on these findings, we propose the use of a teiered heat warning system based on the health risk of heatwave. Conclusions: Health risk-based metrics are a useful tool for the development of local heatwave definitions. thsi tool may have significant implications for the assessment of heatwave-related health consequences and development of heatwave response plans and implementation strategies.

Sustainability of public health interventions to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure at severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Severe dioxin contamination at Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases, Vietnam is of international concern. Public Health risk reduction programs were implemented in Bien Hoa in 2007-2009 and in Da Nang in 2009-2011. In 2009 and 2011 we reported the encouraging results of these interventions in improving the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of local residents in reducing the dioxin exposure risk through foods. In 2013 we revisited these dioxin hot spots, aimed to evaluate whether the results of the intervention were maintained and to identify factors affecting the sustainability of the programs. To assess this, 16 in-depth interviews, six focus group discussions, and pre and post intervention KAP surveys were undertaken. 800 respondents from six intervention wards and 200 respondents from Buu Long Ward (the control site) were randomly selected to participate in the surveys. The results showed that as of 2013, the programs were rated as "moderately sustained" with a score of 3.3 out of 5.0 (cut off points 2.5 to <3.5) for Bien Hoa, and "well sustained" with a score of 3.8 out of 5.0 (cut off points 3.5 to <4.5) for Da Nang. Most formal intervention program activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities were no longer integrated into local routine health education programs. However, the main outcomes were maintained and were better than that in the control ward. Migration, lack of official guidance from City People's Committees and local authorities as well as the politically sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the sustainability of the programs.

‘Only a pawn in their game’ : crime, risk and politics in the case of Robert Fardon

In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first prisoner to be detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003 (Qld), the first of the new generation preventive detention laws enacted in Australia and directed at keeping sex offenders in prison or under supervision beyond the expiry of their sentences where a court decides, on the basis of psychiatric assessments, that unconditional release would create an unacceptable risk to the community. A careful examination of Fardon’s case shows the extent to which the administration of the regime was from the outset governed by politics and political calculation rather than the logic of risk management and community protection. In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first person detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003 (Qld) (hereafter DPSOA), a newly enacted Queensland law aimed at the preventive detention of sex offenders. It was the first of a new generation of such laws introduced in Australia, now also in force in NSW, Western Australia and Victoria. The laws have been widely criticized by lawyers, academics and others (Keyzer and McSherry 2009; Edgely 2007). In this article I want to focus on the details of how the Queensland law was administered in Fardon’s case, he being perhaps the most well-known prisoner detained under such laws and certainly the longest held. It will show, I hope, that seemingly abstract rule of law principles invoked by other critics are not simply abstract: they afford a crucial practical safeguard against the corruption of criminal justice in which the ends both of community protection and of justice give way to opportunistic exploitation of ‘the mythic resonance of crime and punishment for electoral purposes’ (Scheingold 1998: 888).

Out-of-pocket expenditures for hospital care in Iran : who is at risk of incurring catastrophic payments?

Since the beginning of 1980s, the Iranian health care system has undergone several reforms designed to increase accessibility of health services. Notwithstanding these reforms, out-of-pocket payments which create a barrier to access health services contribute almost half of total health are financing in Iran. This study aimed to provide a greater understanding about the inequality and determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) and the related catastrophic expenditure (CE) for hospital services in Iran using a nationwide survey data, the 2003 Utilisation of Health Services Survey (UHSS). The concentration index and the Heckman selection model were used to assess inequality and factors associated with these expenditures. Inequality analysis suggests that the CE is concentrated among households in lower socioeconomic levels. The results of the Heckman selection model indicate that factors such as length of stay, admission to a hospital owned by private sector or Ministry of Health and Medical Education, and living in remote areas are positively associated with higher OOPE. Results of the ordered-probit selection model demonstrate that length of stay, lower household wealth index, and admission to a private hospital are major factors contributing to the increase in the probability of CE. Also, we find that households living in East Azarbaijan, Kordestan and Sistan and Balochestan face a higher level of CE. Based on our findings, the current employer-sponsored health insurance system does not offer equal protection against hospital expenditure in Iran. It seems that a single universal health insurance scheme that covers health services for all Iranian—regardless of their employment status—can better protect households from catastrophic health spending.

Identifying risk factors and protective factors for venous leg ulcer recurrence using a theoretical approach : a longitudinal study

Background The high recurrence rate of chronic venous leg ulcers has a significant impact on an individual’s quality of life and healthcare costs. Objectives This study aimed to identify risk and protective factors for recurrence of venous leg ulcers using a theoretical approach by applying a framework of self and family management of chronic conditions to underpin the study. Design Secondary analysis of combined data collected from three previous prospective longitudinal studies. Setting The contributing studies’ participants were recruited from two metropolitan hospital outpatient wound clinics and three community-based wound clinics. Participants Data were available on a sample of 250 adults, with a leg ulcer of primarily venous aetiology, who were followed after ulcer healing for a median follow-up time of 17 months after healing (range: 3 to 36 months). Methods Data from the three studies were combined. The original participant data were collected through medical records and self-reported questionnaires upon healing and every 3 months thereafter. A Cox proportion-hazards regression analysis was undertaken to determine the influential factors on leg ulcer recurrence based on the proposed conceptual framework. Results The median time to recurrence was 42 weeks (95% CI 31.9–52.0), with an incidence of 22% (54 of 250 participants) recurrence within three months of healing, 39% (91 of 235 participants) for those who were followed for six months, 57% (111 of 193) by 12 months, 73% (53 of 72) by two years and 78% (41 of 52) of those who were followed up for three years. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model revealed that the risk factors for recurrence included a history of deep vein thrombosis (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.07–2.67, p=0.024), history of multiple previous leg ulcers (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.84–10.5, p=0.001), and longer duration (in weeks) of previous ulcer (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.003–1.01, p<0.001); while the protective factors were elevating legs for at least 30 minutes per day (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19–0.56, p<0.001), higher levels of self-efficacy (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92–0.99, p=0.016), and walking around for at least three hours/day (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.44–0.98, p=0.040). Conclusions Results from this study provide a comprehensive examination of risk and protective factors associated with leg ulcer recurrence based on the chronic disease self and family management framework. These results in turn provide essential steps towards developing and testing interventions to promote optimal prevention strategies for venous leg ulcer recurrence.

Male and female cyclist and driver perceptions of crash risk

Many drivers and non-cyclists perceive cycling as an extremely risky activity with women in particular being concerned about the risk of injury. The low rates of cycling participation by women pose a threat to the achievement of government targets for cycling participation and restrict the potential transport, health and environmental benefits that increased levels of cycling could provide. This study seeks to extend earlier research in gender and cycling by comparing the risks perceived by female and male cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations while accounting for other potentially gender-related factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviors. In an online survey, 444 regular cyclists and 151 (non-cyclist) car drivers rated the level of risk in six situations: Failing to yield; Going through a red light; Not signaling when turning; Swerving; Tailgating; and Not checking traffic. The study found that the higher levels of risk perceived by women are not completely accounted for by differences in cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and car drivers had similarly elevated perceptions of risk suggesting that these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but reflect wider differences in risk perception. Not all of the gender differences were consistent across cyclists and drivers. Higher levels of perceived skill were evident for male cyclists but not for male car drivers. Further research is needed to explore the robustness and interpretation of this finding.

Extinction risk analysis of exploited green turtle stocks in the Indo-Pacific

In parts of the Indo-Pacific, large-scale exploitation of the green turtle Chelonia mydas continues to pose a serious threat to the persistence of this species; yet very few studies have assessed the pattern and extent of the impact of such harvests. We used demographic and genetic data in an age-based model to investigate the viability of an exploited green turtle stock from Aru, south-east Indonesia. We found that populations are decreasing under current exploitation pressures. The effects of increasingly severe exploitation activities at foraging and nesting habitat varied depending on the migratory patterns of the stock. Our model predicted a rapid decline of the Aru stock in Indonesia under local exploitation pressure and a shift in the genetic composition of the stock. We used the model to investigate the influence of different types of conservation actions on the persistence of the Aru stock. The results show that local management actions such as nest protection and reducing harvests of adult nesting and foraging turtles can have considerable conservation outcomes and result in the long-term persistence of genetically distinct management units. © 2010 The Authors. Animal Conservation © 2010 The Zoological Society of London.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Why, What, and How of Global Biodiversity Indicators Beyond the 2010 Target

The 2010 biodiversity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological diversity at the global scale. We considered why global biodiversity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well-developed indicators of biological diversity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as examples, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological diversity inform development of new indicators. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Psychological health and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women: A 21-year prospective study

Background Symptoms of depression can be recurrent or limited to one episode. This study discusses the prospective association between psychological health, measured as change in depression symptoms, and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women. Methods Data obtained from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy. Depression was measured using the Delusions-Symptoms: States Inventory. To examine possible transitions over time, depression was grouped into four categories and assessed at different phases over the 21-year period. Multiple logistic regression models and sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our analytical strategy were performed. Results Three hundred and one women reported diabetes 21 years after the index pregnancy. Almost one-third of the women who reported depression symptoms continued to report these at a subsequent follow-up (FU) phase. About 1 in 20 women who had not reported depression symptoms at the 5-year FU did so at the subsequent 14-year FU. In prospective analyses, we did not find a significant association between diabetes and negative change (not depressed to depressed, at subsequent phase); however, for women with positive history of symptoms of depression and women with persistent symptoms, there was a 1.97-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–3.40) to 2.23-fold (95% CI: 1.09–4.57) greater risk of diabetes. Conclusions Our study suggests that an increased risk of diabetes is significantly associated with persistent depression symptoms. It highlights the importance of recognizing depression symptoms in terms of women's psychological wellbeing and thus provides a basis for targeting those most at risk.

Bicycle commuting and exposure to air pollution: A questionnaire-based investigation of perceptions, symptoms and risk management strategies

Background An increase in bicycle commuting participation may improve public health and traffic congestion in cities. Information on air pollution exposure (such as perception, symptoms and risk management) contributes to the responsible promotion of bicycle commuting participation. Methods To determine perceptions, symptoms and willingness for specific exposure risk management strategies of exposure to air pollution, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional investigation was conducted with adult bicycle commuters (n = 153; age = 41 ± 11 yr; 28% female). Results Frequency of acute respiratory signs and symptoms are positively-associated with in- and post-commute compared to pre-commute time periods (p < 0.05); greater positive-association is with respiratory disorder compared to healthy, and female compared to male, participants. The perception (although not signs or symptoms) of in-commute exposure to air pollution is positive-associated with the estimated level of in-commute proximity to motorised traffic. The majority of participants indicated a willingness (which varied with health status and gender) to adopt risk management strategies (with certain practical features) if shown to be appropriate and effective. Conclusions While acute signs and symptoms of air pollution exposure are indicated with bicycle commuting, and more so in susceptible individuals, there is willingness to manage exposure risk by adopting effective strategies with desirable features.

The challenge of developing a fleet driving risk assessment tool: What can be learned from the process?

One of the riskiest activities in the course of a person's work is driving. By developing and testing a new work driving risk assessment measurement tool for use by organisations this research will contribute to the safety of those who drive for work purposes. The research results highlighted limitations associated with current self-report measures and provided evidence that the work driving environment is extremely complex and involves constant interactions between humans, vehicles, the road environment, and the organisational context.

Risk factors associated with an outbreak of dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) appears to be emerging in Hanoi in recent years. A case-control study was performed to investigate risk factors for the development of DF/DHF in Hanoi. A total of 73 patients with DF/DHF and 73 control patients were included in the study. The risk factor analysis indicated that living in rented housing, living near uncovered sewers, and living in a house discharging sewage directly into to ponds were all significantly associated with DF/DHF. People living in rented houses were 2·2 times more at risk of DF/DHF than those living in their own homes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1–4·6]. People living in an unhygienic house, or in a house discharging sewage directly to the ponds were 3·4 times and 4·3 times, respectively, more likely to be associated with DF/DHF (aOR 3·4, 95% CI 1–11·7; aOR 4·3, 95% CI 1·1–16·9). These results contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of dengue transmission in Hanoi, which is needed to implement dengue prevention and control programmes effectively and efficiently.

Empirical evaluation of the travel time reliability indicators: A case study for Brisbane corridor under recurrent and non-recurrent conditions

This research quantifies traffic congestion and travel time reliability with case study on a major arterial road in Brisbane. The focus is on the analysis of impact of incidents (e.g., road accidents) on travel time reliability. Real traffic (Bluetooth) and incident records from Coronation Drive, Brisbane are utilized for the study. The findings include significant impact of incidents on traffic congestion and travel time reliability. The knowledge gained is useful in various applications such as traveler information systems, and cost-benefit analysis of various strategies to reduce the traffic incidents and its' impacts.