Changes in depression during and following pregnancy

Rates of depression were studied in a sample of over 9000 women who were participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childhood. Assessments of depression were made at 18 and 32 weeks gestation, and at 8 and 32 weeks postpartum. Changes in depressive status across time were modelled using latent Markov modelling methods. This analysis showed that when classification errors were taken into account there was relatively high stability in diagnostic status during pregnancy and after pregnancy. However, the transition from late pregnancy to the early postnatal period showed evidence of increased instability and remission of depression. The net effects of this were that rates of depression tended to decline following childbirth. The implications of these results for a series of issues including measurement errors in depression reports and the prevalence of depression before and after childbirth are discussed.

Inter-lamellar shear resistance confers compressive stiffness in the intervertebral disc: An image-based modelling study on the bovine caudal disc

The intervertebral disc withstands large compressive loads (up to nine times bodyweight in humans) while providing flexibility to the spinal column. At a microstructural level, the outer sheath of the disc (the annulus fibrosus) comprises 12–20 annular layers of alternately crisscrossed collagen fibres embedded in a soft ground matrix. The centre of the disc (the nucleus pulposus) consists of a hydrated gel rich in proteoglycans. The disc is the largest avascular structure in the body and is of much interest biomechanically due to the high societal burden of disc degeneration and back pain. Although the disc has been well characterized at the whole joint scale, it is not clear how the disc tissue microstructure confers its overall mechanical properties. In particular, there have been conflicting reports regarding the level of attachment between adjacent lamellae in the annulus, and the importance of these interfaces to the overall integrity of the disc is unknown. We used a polarized light micrograph of the bovine tail disc in transverse cross-section to develop an image-based finite element model incorporating sliding and separation between layers of the annulus, and subjected the model to axial compressive loading. Validation experiments were also performed on four bovine caudal discs. Interlamellar shear resistance had a strong effect on disc compressive stiffness, with a 40% drop in stiffness when the interface shear resistance was changed from fully bonded to freely sliding. By contrast, interlamellar cohesion had no appreciable effect on overall disc mechanics. We conclude that shear resistance between lamellae confers disc mechanical resistance to compression, and degradation of the interlamellar interface structure may be a precursor to macroscopic disc degeneration.

Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

Truckies and workplace health promotion: Targeting a hard-to-reach group

- Introduction Research identifies truck drivers as being at high risk of chronic disease. For most truck drivers their workplace is their vehicle. Truck drivers’ health is impacted by the limitations of this unique working environment, including reduced opportunities for physical activity and the intake of healthy foods. Workplaces are widely recognised as effective platforms for health promotion. However, the effectiveness of traditional and contemporary health promotion interventions in truck drivers’ novel workplace is unknown. - Methods This project worked with six transport industry workplaces in Queensland, Australia over a two-year period. Researchers used Participatory Action Research (PAR) processes to engage truck drivers and workplace managers in the implementation and evaluation of six workplace health promotion interventions. These interventions were designed to support truck drivers to increase their physical activity and access to healthy foods at work. They included traditional health promotion interventions such as a free fruit initiative, a ten thousand steps challenge, personal health messages and workplace posters, and a contemporary social media intervention. Participants were engaged via focus groups, interviews and mixed-methods surveys. - Results The project achieved positive changes in truck drivers’ health knowledge and health behaviours, particularly related to nutrition. There were positive changes in truck drivers’ self-reported health rating, body mass index (BMI) and readiness to make health-related lifestyle changes. There were also positive changes in truck drivers reporting their workplace as a key source of health information. These changes were underpinned by a positive shift in the culture of participating workplaces. Truck drivers’ perceptions of their workplace valuing, encouraging, modelling and facilitating healthy nutrition and physical activity behaviours improved. PAR processes enabled researchers to develop relationships with workplace managers, contextualise interventions and deliver rigorous outcomes. Despite the novelty of truck drivers’ mobile workplace, traditional health promotion interventions were more effective than contemporary ones. - Conclusion In this workplace health promotion project targeting a ‘hard-to-reach’ group of truck drivers, a combination of well-designed traditional workplace interventions and the PAR process resulted in positive health outcomes.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

A theory of process modelling affordances

This thesis studies how conceptual process models - that is, graphical documentations of an organisation's business processes - can enable and constrain the actions of their users. The results from case study and experiment indicate that model design decisions and people's characteristics influence how these opportunities for action are perceived and acted upon in practice.

Mathematical modelling of the impaction and spreading of spray droplets on leaves

This thesis concerns the development of mathematical models to describe the interactions that occur between spray droplets and leaves. Models are presented that not only provide a contribution to mathematical knowledge in the field of fluid dynamics, but are also of utility within the agrichemical industry. The thesis is presented in two parts. First, thin film models are implemented with efficient numerical schemes in order to simulate droplets on virtual leaf surfaces. Then the interception event is considered, whereby energy balance techniques are employed to instantaneously predict whether an impacting droplet will bounce, splash, or adhere to a leaf.

Personality in sport and exercise psychology: Integrating a whole person perspective

This paper draws on contemporary views in personality psychology as a means for understanding people participating in sport and physical activity. Specifically, we focus on McAdams’ integrative framework [McAdams (2013). The psychological self as actor, agent, and author. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8, 272–295; McAdams & Pals (2006). A new big five: Fundamental principles for an integrative science of personality. American Psychologist, 61, 204–217] and suggest this framework as potentially generative in the field of sport and exercise psychology. McAdams indicates that people can be defined through three layers of understanding, incorporating (a) dispositional traits, (b) characteristic adaptations, and (c) narrative identities. Together these layers provide a vision of the whole person – a perspective of personality rarely adopted by the sport and exercise community. The aim of this paper is to introduce scholars and practitioners to the potential benefits of embracing this whole person outlook, and to discuss the opportunities and challenges McAdams’ framework may have for advancing scholarship in sport and exercise psychology.

Special Issue on Spatial Moment Techniques for Modelling Biological Processes

Over the last two decades, there has been an increasing awareness of, and interest in, the use of spatial moment techniques to provide insight into a range of biological and ecological processes. Models that incorporate spatial moments can be viewed as extensions of mean-field models. These mean-field models often consist of systems of classical ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations, whose derivation, at some point, hinges on the simplifying assumption that individuals in the underlying stochastic process encounter each other at a rate that is proportional to the average abundance of individuals. This assumption has several implications, the most striking of which is that mean-field models essentially neglect any impact of the spatial structure of individuals in the system. Moment dynamics models extend traditional mean-field descriptions by accounting for the dynamics of pairs, triples and higher n-tuples of individuals. This means that moment dynamics models can, to some extent, account for how the spatial structure affects the dynamics of the system in question.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.

Enhancing skill acquisition and expertise in high performance programmes

Our research programme with elite athletes has investigated and implemented learning design from an ecological dynamics perspective, examining its effects on movement coordination and control and the acquisition of expertise. Ecological dynamics is a systemsoriented theoretical rationale for understanding the emergent relations in a complex system formed by each performer and a performance environment. This approach has identified the individual-environment relationship as the relevant scale of analysis for modelling how processes of perception, cognition and action underpin expert performance in sport (Davids et al., 2014; Zelaznik, 2014). In this chapter we elucidate key concepts from ecological dynamics and exemplify how they have informed our understanding of relevant psychological processes including: movement coordination and its acquisition, learning and transfer, impacting on practice task design in high performance programmes.

Numerical modelling of deformation behaviour of red blood cells in microvessels using the coupled SPH-DEM method

This thesis developed an advanced computational model to investigate the motion and deformation properties of red blood cells in capillaries. The novel model is based on the meshfree particle methods and is capable of modelling the large deformation of red blood cells moving through blood vessels. The developed model was employed to simulate the deformation behaviour of healthy and malaria infected red blood cells as well as the motion of red blood cells in stenosed capillaries.

The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, inter-sample variation in the proportion of linked families (alpha) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage findings obtained using allele-sharing LOD scores (LOD(exp))-which assume homogeneity-and heterogeneity LOD scores (HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LOD(exp) and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these (HLOD-P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter alpha only in aggregate data, while the second (HLOD-S) determines alpha separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LOD(exp). Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD-S, but not HLOD-P. Using HLOD-S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.

An explicit finite element modelling method for masonry walls under out-of-plane loading

An explicit finite element modelling method is formulated using a layered shell element to examine the behaviour of masonry walls subject to out-of-plane loading. Masonry is modelled as a homogenised material with distinct directional properties that are calibrated from datasets of a “C” shaped wall tested under pressure loading applied to its web. The predictions of the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. Profound influence of support conditions, aspect ratio, pre-compression and opening to the strength and ductility of masonry walls is exhibited from the sensitivity analyses performed using the model.