A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Assessment of temperature effects on childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea

This thesis has identified the high risk areas of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland and quantified the effects of temperature on emergency department visits for childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea. It adds to the increasing evidence about the impacts of climate variability and change on children's health and may have significant implications for developing climate change adaptation strategies and paediatric care policies.

Effects of anticoagulants on outcome of femoral neck fracture surgery

PURPOSE To review records of 330 patients who underwent surgery for femoral neck fractures with or without preoperative anticoagulation therapy. METHODS Medical records of 235 women and 95 men aged 48 to 103 years (mean, 81.6; standard deviation [SD], 13.1) who underwent surgery for femoral neck fractures with or without preoperative anticoagulation therapy were reviewed. 30 patients were on warfarin, 105 on aspirin, 28 on clopidogrel, and 167 were controls. The latter 3 groups were combined as the non-warfarin group and compared with the warfarin group. Hospital mortality, time from admission to surgery, length of hospital stay, return to theatre, and postoperative complications (wound infection, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism) were assessed. RESULTS The warfarin and control groups were significantly younger than the clopidogrel and aspirin groups (80.8 vs. 80.0 vs. 84.2 vs. 83.7 years, respectively, p<0.05). 81% of the patients underwent surgery within 48 hours of admission. The overall mean time from admission to surgery was 1.8 days; it was longer in the warfarin than the aspirin, clopidogrel, and control groups (3.3 vs. 1.8 vs. 1.6 vs. 1.6 days, respectively, p<0.001). The mean length of hospital stay was 17.5 (SD, 9.6; range, 3-54) days. The overall hospital mortality was 3.9%; it was 6.7% in the warfarin group, 3.8% in the aspirin group, 3.6% in the clopidogrel group, and 3.6% in the control group (p=0.80). Four patients returned to theatre for surgery: one in the warfarin group for washout of a haematoma, 2 in the aspirin group for repositioning of a mal-fixation and for debridement of wound infection, and one in the control group for debridement of wound infection. The warfarin group did not differ significantly from non-warfarin group in terms of postoperative complication rate (6.7% vs. 2.7%, p=0.228) and the rate of return to theatre (3.3% vs. 1%, p=0.318). CONCLUSION It is safe to continue aspirin and clopidogrel prior to surgical treatment for femoral neck fracture. The risk of delaying surgery outweighs the peri-operative bleeding risk.

Effective communication during disasters: What effects community decision making & action?

Study/Objective This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. Background In recent years, media reports have consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under stress. This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency instruction. Methods To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for compliance improvement. Results Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. Conclusion The research described here will contribute improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and multiple channels of communication including social media.

Appendix 8: Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on catch rates in South-East fisheries: 1986-2006

The collection of basic environmental data by industry members was successful and offers a way of overcoming the problems associated with differences in scale between the environment and fisheries datasets. A simple method of collecting environmental data was developed that was only a small time burden on skippers, yet has the potential to provide very useful information on the same scale as the catch and effort data recorded in the logbooks. The success of this trial was aided by the natural interest of fishers to learn more about the environment in which they fish. The archival temperature-depth tags chosen proved robust, reliable and easy to use. While the use of large scale environmental data may not yield significant improvements in stock assessments for most SESSF species, fine-scale data collected from selected vessels using methods developed during this project may, in the longer term, be useful for incorporation into CPUE standardisations in the future...

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to childhood and maternal undernutrition in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the disease burden attributable to being underweight as an indicator of undernutrition in children under 5 years of age and in pregnant women for the year 2000. DESIGN World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The 1999 National Food Consumption Survey prevalence of underweight classified in three low weight-for-age categories was compared with standard growth charts to estimate population-attributable fractions for mortality and morbidity outcomes, based on increased risk for each category and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for South Africa in 2000. Maternal underweight, leading to an increased risk of intra-uterine growth retardation and further risk of low birth weight (LBW), was also assessed using the approach adopted by the global assessment. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years of age and pregnant women. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from protein- energy malnutrition and a fraction of those from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia, malaria, other non- HIV/AIDS infectious and parasitic conditions in children aged 0 - 4 years, and LBW. RESULTS Among children under 5 years, 11.8% were underweight. In the same age group, 11,808 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11,100 - 12,642) or 12.3% (95% uncertainty interval 11.5 - 13.1%) were attributable to being underweight. Protein-energy malnutrition contributed 44.7% and diarrhoeal disease 29.6% of the total attributable burden. Childhood and maternal underweight accounted for 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 - 2.9%) of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000 and 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval 10.2 - 11.5%) of DALYs in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that reduction of the occurrence of underweight would have a substantial impact on child mortality, and also highlights the need to monitor this important indicator of child health.

Novel loci affecting iron homeostasis and their effects in individuals at risk for hemochromatosis

Variation in body iron is associated with or causes diseases, including anaemia and iron overload. Here, we analyse genetic association data on biochemical markers of iron status from 11 European-population studies, with replication in eight additional cohorts (total up to 48,972 subjects). We find 11 genome-wide-significant (P<5 × 10−8) loci, some including known iron-related genes (​HFE, ​SLC40A1, ​TF, ​TFR2, ​TFRC, ​TMPRSS6) and others novel (​ABO, ​ARNTL, ​FADS2, ​NAT2, ​TEX14). SNPs at ​ARNTL, ​TF, and ​TFR2 affect iron markers in ​HFE C282Y homozygotes at risk for hemochromatosis. There is substantial overlap between our iron loci and loci affecting erythrocyte and lipid phenotypes. These results will facilitate investigation of the roles of iron in disease.

Effects of different levels of refractive blur on night-time pedestrian visibility

Purpose The aim of this study was to systematically investigate the effect of different levels of refractive blur and driver age on night-time pedestrian recognition and determine whether clothing that has been shown to improve pedestrian conspicuity is robust to the effects of blur. Methods Night-time pedestrian recognition was measured for 24 visually normal participants (12 younger M=24.9±4.5 years and 12 older adults M=77.6±5.7 years) for three levels of binocular blur (+0.50 D, +1.00 D, +2.00 D) compared to baseline (optimal refractive correction). Pedestrians walked in place on a closed road circuit and wore one of three clothing conditions: i) everyday clothing, ii) a retro-reflective vest and iii) retro-reflective tape positioned on the extremities in a configuration that conveyed biological motion (known as “biomotion”); the order of conditions was randomized between participants. Pedestrian recognition distances were recorded for each blur and pedestrian clothing combination while participants drove an instrumented vehicle around a closed road course. Results The recognition distances for pedestrians were significantly reduced (p<0.05) by all levels of blur compared to baseline. Pedestrians wearing “biomotion” clothing were recognized at significantly longer distances than for the other clothing configurations in all blur conditions. However, these effects were smaller for the older adults, who had much shorter recognition distances for all conditions tested. Conclusions In summary, even small amounts of blur had a significant detrimental effect on night-time pedestrian recognition. Biomotion retro-reflective clothing was effective, even under moderately degraded visibility conditions, for both young and older drivers.

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

A simulator evaluation of effects of assistive technologies on driver cognitive load at railway level crossings

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have the potential to substantially reduce the number of crashes caused by human errors at railway levels crossings. However, such systems could overwhelm drivers, generate different types of driver errors and have negative effects on safety at level crossing. The literature shows an increasing interest for new ITS for increasing driver situational awareness at level crossings, as well as evaluations of such new systems on compliance. To our knowledge, the potential negative effects of such technologies have not been comprehensively evaluated yet. This study aimed at assessing the effect of different ITS interventions, designed to enhance driver behaviour at railway crossings, on driver’s cognitive loads. Fifty eight participants took part in a driving simulator study in which three ITS devices were tested: an in-vehicle visual ITS, an in-vehicle audio ITS, and an on-road valet system. Driver cognitive load was objectively and subjectively assessed for each ITS intervention. Objective data were collected from a heart rate monitor and an eye tracker, while subjective data was collected with the NASA-TLX questionnaire. Overall, results indicated that the three trialled technologies did not result in significant changes in cognitive load while approaching crossings.

Effects of layer orientation of CFRP strengthened steel hollow members

This paper reveals the effects of layer orientation on structural behaviour of three layers configured (LHL, HHL, LLH) CFRP strengthened circular hollow section (CHS) members subjected to bending. The beams were loaded to failure under four-point bending. The structural behaviour of the CFRP strengthened tubular steel beams with various layer orientations were presented in terms of failure load, stiffness, composite beam action and modes of failure. The LHL and LLH layers oriented strengthened beams perform slightly better than HHL layers oriented strengthened beams. The LHL and LLH layers oriented treated beams showed very similar structural behaviour.