A statistical approach to quantify the impact on voltage quality caused by PV generators

A probabilistic method is proposed to evaluate voltage quality of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power systems. The random behavior of solar irradiation is described in statistical terms and the resulting voltage fluctuation probability distribution is then derived. Reactive power capabilities of the PV generators are then analyzed and their operation under constant power factor mode is examined. By utilizing the reactive power capability of the PV-generators to the full, it is shown that network voltage quality can be greatly enhanced.

The impact of prolonged hyperinsulinaemia on glucose transport in equine skeletal muscle and digital lamellae

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY An increased incidence of metabolic disease in horses has led to heightened recognition of the pathological consequences of insulin resistance (IR). Laminitis, failure of the weight-bearing digital lamellae, is an important consequence. Altered trafficking of specialised glucose transporters (GLUTs) responsible for glucose uptake, are central to the dysregulation of glucose metabolism and may play a role in laminitis pathophysiology. OBJECTIVES We hypothesised that prolonged hyperinsulinaemia alters the regulation of glucose transport in insulin-sensitive tissue and digital lamellae. Our objectives were to compare the relative protein expression of major GLUT isoforms in striated muscle and digital lamellae in healthy horses and during hyperinsulinaemia. STUDY DESIGN Randomised, controlled study. METHODS Prolonged hyperinsulinaemia and lamellar damage were induced by a prolonged-euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp (p-EHC) or a prolonged-glucose infusion (p-GI) and results were compared to electrolyte-treated controls. GLUT protein expression was examined with immunoblotting. RESULTS Lamellar tissue contained more GLUT1 protein than skeletal muscle (p = 0.002) and less GLUT4 than the heart (p = 0.037). During marked hyperinsulinaemia and acute laminitis (induced by the p-EHC), GLUT1 protein expression was decreased in skeletal muscle (p = 0.029) but unchanged in the lamellae, while novel GLUTs (8; 12) were increased in the lamellae (p = 0.03), but not skeletal muscle. However, moderate hyperinsulinaemia and subclinical laminitis (induced by the p-GI) did not cause differential GLUT protein expression in the lamellae vs. control horses. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that lamellar tissue functions independently of insulin and that IR may not be an essential component of laminitis aetiology. Marked differences in GLUT expression exist between insulin-sensitive and insulin-independent tissues during metabolic dysfunction in horses. The different expression profiles of novel GLUTs during acute and subclinical laminitis may be important to disease pathophysiology and require further investigation.

The impact of diabetic ketoacidosis and age on behavior six months post-diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes

Objectives: Children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM1) may be at increased risk of psychosocial and adjustment difficulties. We examined behavioral outcomes six months post-diagnosis in a group of children with newly diagnosed DM1. Methods: This study formed part of a larger longitudinal project examining pathophysiology and neuropsychological outcomes in diabetic patients with or without diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA). Participants were 61 children (mean age 11.8 years, SD 2.7 years) who presented with a new diagnosis of DM1 at the Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne. Twenty-three (11 female) presented in DKA and 38 (14 female) without DKA. Parents completed the behavior assessment system for children, second edition six months post-diagnosis. Results: There was a non-linear relationship between age and behavior. Internalising problems (i.e. anxiety depression, withdrawal) peaked in the transition from childhood to adolescence; children aged 10–13 years had elevated rates relative to the normal population (t = 2.55, P = 0.018). There was a non-significant trend for children under 10 to display internalising problems (P = 0.052), but rates were not elevated in children over 13 (P = 0.538). Externalising problems were not significantly elevated in any age group. Interestingly, children who presented in DKA were at lower risk of internalising problems than children without DKA (t = 3.83, P < 0.001). There was no effect of DKA on externalising behaviors. Conclusions: Children transitioning from childhood to adolescence are at significant risk for developing internalising problems such as anxiety and lowered mood after diagnosis of DM1. Somewhat counter-intuitively, parents of children presenting in DKA reported fewer internalising symptoms than parents of children without DKA. These results highlight the importance of monitoring and supporting psychosocial adjustment in newly diagnosed children even when they seem physically well.

Impact forces at dipped rail joints

Impact forces develop at the wheel/rail interface due to the presence of defects in the running surface of the wheel and/ or the railhead. This paper reports on wheel impacts, caused by permanently dipped rail joints, that are characterised by high-frequency impact forces generated by high amplifications of the static load that occur for a very short duration (P1 forces), followed by relatively low frequency, lower amplitude forces (P2 forces) that occur for a longer duration. These impact forces are affected by the design of components adjacent to the wheel and rail, namely the bogie’s primary suspension and rail seat pads; the influences of stiffness and damping characteristics of these components are investigated. A modified three-dimensional simulation model of the dynamics of the wagon/track system that includes defects in the track is created and is used to obtain the time series of the impact force. This is converted into impact force factors that are compared with a set of field-measured data reported in the literature. A simplified equation for the determination of impact force factors due to dipped rail joints is also proposed and validated.

Integrating the impact of climate into event based failure models for water pipes

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

Impact of child labor on academic performance : evidence from the program "Edúcame Primero Colombia"

In this study, the effects of different variables of child labor on academic performance are investigated. To this end, 3302 children participating in the child labor eradication program “Edúcame Primero Colombia” were interviewed. The interview format used for the children's enrollment into the program was a template from which socioeconomic conditions, academic performance, and child labor variables were evaluated. The academic performance factor was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The data were analyzed through a logistic regression model that took into account children who engaged in a type of labor (n = 921). The results showed that labor conditions, the number of weekly hours dedicated to work, and the presence of work scheduled in the morning negatively affected the academic performance of child laborers. These results show that the relationship between child labor and academic performance is based on the conflict between these two activities. These results do not indicate a linear and simple relationship associated with the recognition of the presence or absence of child labor. This study has implications for the formulation of policies, programs, and interventions for preventing, eradicating, and attenuating the negative effects of child labor on the social and educational development of children.

Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers

Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.

An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

The impact of mobile phone distraction on the braking behaviour of young drivers : a hazard-based duration model

Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

The game of clones and the Australia tax : divergent views about copyright business models and the willingness of Australian consumers to infringe

It is often said that Australia is a world leader in rates of copyright infringement for entertainment goods. In 2012, the hit television show, Game of Thrones, was the most downloaded television show over bitorrent, and estimates suggest that Australians accounted for a plurality of nearly 10% of the 3-4 million downloads each week. The season finale of 2013 was downloaded over a million times within 24 hours of its release, and again Australians were the largest block of illicit downloaders over BitTorrent, despite our relatively small population. This trend has led the former US Ambassador to Australia to implore Australians to stop 'stealing' digital content, and rightsholders to push for increasing sanctions on copyright infringers. The Australian Government is looking to respond by requiring Internet Service Providers to issue warnings and potentially punish consumers who are alleged by industry groups to have infringed copyright. This is the logical next step in deterring infringement, given that the operators of infringing networks (like The Pirate Bay, for example) are out of regulatory reach. This steady ratcheting up of the strength of copyright, however, comes at a significant cost to user privacy and autonomy, and while the decentralisation of enforcement reduces costs, it also reduces the due process safeguards provided by the judicial process. This article presents qualitative evidence that substantiates a common intuition: one of the major reasons that Australians seek out illicit downloads of content like Game of Thrones in such numbers is that it is more difficult to access legitimately in Australia. The geographically segmented way in which copyright is exploited at an international level has given rise to a ‘tyranny of digital distance’, where Australians have less access to copyright goods than consumers in other countries. Compared to consumers in the US and the EU, Australians pay more for digital goods, have less choice in distribution channels, are exposed to substantial delays in access, and are sometimes denied access completely. In this article we focus our analysis on premium film and television offerings, like Game of Thrones, and through semi-structured interviews, explore how choices in distribution impact on the willingness of Australian consumers to seek out infringing copies of copyright material. Game of Thrones provides an excellent case study through which to frame this analysis: it is both one of the least legally accessible television offerings and one of the most downloaded through filesharing networks of recent times. Our analysis shows that at the same time as rightsholder groups, particularly in the film and television industries, are lobbying for stronger laws to counter illicit distribution, the business practices of their member organisations are counter-productively increasing incentives for consumers to infringe. The lack of accessibility and high prices of copyright goods in Australia leads to substantial economic waste. The unmet consumer demand means that Australian consumers are harmed by lower access to information and entertainment goods than consumers in other jurisdictions. The higher rates of infringement that fulfils some of this unmet demand increases enforcement costs for copyright owners and imposes burdens either on our judicial system or on private entities – like ISPs – who may be tasked with enforcing the rights of third parties. Most worryingly, the lack of convenient and cheap legitimate digital distribution channels risks undermining public support for copyright law. Our research shows that consumers blame rightsholders for failing to meet market demand, and this encourages a social norm that infringing copyright, while illegal, is not morally wrongful. The implications are as simple as they are profound: Australia should not take steps to increase the strength of copyright law at this time. The interests of the public and those of rightsholders align better when there is effective competition in distribution channels and consumers can legitimately get access to content. While foreign rightsholders are seeking enhanced protection for their interests, increasing enforcement is likely to increase their ability to engage in lucrative geographical price-discrimination, particularly for premium content. This is only likely to increase the degree to which Australian consumers feel that their interests are not being met and, consequently, to further undermine the legitimacy of copyright law. If consumers are to respect copyright law, increasing sanctions for infringement without enhancing access and competition in legitimate distribution channels could be dangerously counter-productive. We suggest that rightsholders’ best strategy for addressing infringement in Australia at this time is to ensure that Australians can access copyright goods in a timely, affordable, convenient, and fair lawful manner.

Rescaling clustering trees using impact ratios for robust hierarchical speaker clustering

We present a novel method for improving hierarchical speaker clustering in the tasks of speaker diarization and speaker linking. In hierarchical clustering, a tree can be formed that demonstrates various levels of clustering. We propose a ratio that expresses the impact of each cluster on the formation of this tree and use this to rescale cluster scores. This provides score normalisation based on the impact of each cluster. We use a state-of-the-art speaker diarization and linking system across the SAIVT-BNEWS corpus to show that our proposed impact ratio can provide a relative improvement of 16% in diarization error rate (DER).

Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation

Quantifying the impact of biochemical compounds on collective cell spreading is an essential element of drug design, with various applications including developing treatments for chronic wounds and cancer. Scratch assays are a technically simple and inexpensive method used to study collective cell spreading; however, most previous interpretations of scratch assays are qualitative and do not provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, or the cell proliferation rate,l. Estimating D and l is important for investigating the efficacy of a potential treatment and provides insight into the mechanism through which the potential treatment acts. While a few methods for estimating D and l have been proposed, these previous methods lead to point estimates of D and l, and provide no insight into the uncertainty in these estimates. Here, we compare various types of information that can be extracted from images of a scratch assay, and quantify D and l using discrete computational simulations and approximate Bayesian computation. We show that it is possible to robustly recover estimates of D and l from synthetic data, as well as a new set of experimental data. For the first time, our approach also provides a method to estimate the uncertainty in our estimates of D and l. We anticipate that our approach can be generalized to deal with more realistic experimental scenarios in which we are interested in estimating D and l, as well as additional relevant parameters such as the strength of cell-to-cell adhesion or the strength of cell-to-substrate adhesion.

Users’ perception of using web search engines and their impact on the perceived intention to reuse the systems

In today’s world of information-driven society, many studies are exploring usefulness and ease of use of the technology. The research into personalizing next-generation user interface is also ever increasing. A better understanding of factors that influence users’ perception of web search engine performance would contribute in achieving this. This study measures and examines how users’ perceived level of prior knowledge and experience influence their perceived level of satisfaction of using the web search engines, and how their perceived level of satisfaction affects their perceived intention to reuse the system. 50 participants from an Australian university participated in the current study, where they performed three search tasks and completed survey questionnaires. A research model was constructed to test the proposed hypotheses. Correlation and regression analyses results indicated a significant correlation between (1) users’ prior level of experience and their perceived level of satisfaction in using the web search engines, and (2) their perceived level of satisfaction in using the systems and their perceived intention to reuse the systems. A theoretical model is proposed to illustrate the causal relationships. The implications and limitations of the study are also discussed.

Impact of community pharmacist intervention discussing patients’ beliefs to improve medication adherence

Background Adherence to evidence based medicines in patients who have experienced a myocardial infarction remains low. Individual’s beliefs towards their medicines are a strong predictor of adherence and may influence other factors that impact on adherence. Objective To investigate if community pharmacists discussing patients’ beliefs about their medicines improved medication adherence at 12 months post myocardial infarction. Setting This study included 200 patients discharged from a public teaching hospital in Queensland, Australia, following a myocardial infarction. Patients were randomised into intervention (n = 100) and control groups (n = 100) and followed for 12 months. Method All patients were interviewed between 5 to 6 weeks, at 6 and 12 months post discharge by the researcher using the repertory grid technique. This technique was used to elicit the patient’s individualised beliefs about their medicines for their myocardial infarction. In the intervention group, patients’ beliefs about their medicines were communicated by the researcher to their community pharmacist. The pharmacist used this information to tailor their discussion with the patient about their medication beliefs at designated time points (3 and 6 months post discharge). The control group was provided with usual care. Main outcome measure The difference in non-adherence measured using a medication possession ratio between the intervention and control groups at 12 months post myocardial infarction. Results There were 137 patients remaining in the study (intervention group n = 72, control group n = 65) at 12 months. In the intervention group 29 % (n = 20) of patients were non-adherent compared to 25 % (n = 16) of patients in control group. Conclusion Discussing patients’ beliefs about their medicines for their myocardial infarction did not improve medication adherence. Further research on patients beliefs should focus on targeting non-adherent patients whose reasons for their non-adherence is driven by their medication beliefs.

The impact of litigation risk on the strategic timing of management earnings forecasts

This paper examines whether managers strategically time their earnings forecasts (MEFs) as litigation risk increases. We find as litigation risk increases, the propensity to release a delayed forecast until after the market is closed (AMC) or a Friday decreases but not proportionally more for bad news than for good news. Host costly this behaviour is to investors is questionable as share price returns do not reveal any under-reaction to strategically timed bad news MEF released AMC. We also find evidence consistent with managers timing their MEFs during a natural no-trading period to better disseminate information.