In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

The impact of project announcements on property values: An empirical analysis

The study examines the property value impacts of an announcement of a project which has potential environmental impacts as distinct from other studies that address costs associated with under-construction and the operating impacts of developments. The hypothesis is that the announcement of a proposed project with potential environmental impact creates uncertainty in the property market of the affected area, and this impact is greater on properties closer to the project than those farther from it. The results of the study confirm the hypothesis and indicate that the marginal willingness to pay for properties within a 5 km distance declined by AU$17,020 per km proximity to the proposed heavy vehicle route, after the proposed route was announced. The results support the need for more holistic measurement of cost–benefit analysis of projects and provide a basis for improved consideration by policy makers of the rights of affected parties.

An experimental investigation of moral commitments

This thesis explored the impact of non-contractual agreements in economic decisions. These statements of intent serve as a commitment device in strategic decisions and have been found to be an effective alternative to strong regulations in promoting social behaviour. Three studies have been undertaken using conceptual and methodological approaches from Behavioral and Experimental Economics. The first study explored in a public good setting the effect of public statements about intended social behaviour. The second study tested whether promises can help to promote co-operation in environments with uncertain choice options. The third study investigated a possible application of statement of intent and tested the effect of payment promises in a tax setting.

A case study of short-sale constraints and limits to arbitrage

This paper uses a unique data set of trades in a unique pair of securities that enables the precise identification of individual broker activity and the trade direction of that activity. We find direct evidence that the imposition (removal) of short-sale constraints limits (generates) trading activity consistent with brokers exploiting apparent mispricing.

The role of offsets in compensating for damage in the coastal and marine environments

This thesis examines the extent of which economic instruments can be used to minimise environmental damage in the coastal and marine environments, and the role of offsets to compensate for residual damage. Economic principles are used to review current command and control systems, potential incentive based mechanisms, and the development of appropriate offsets. Implementing offsets in the marine environment has a number of challenges, so alternative approaches may be necessary. The study finds that offsets in areas remote from the initial impact, or even to protect different species, may be acceptable provided they result in greater conservation benefits than the standard like-for-like offset. This study is particularly relevant for the design of offsets in the coastal and marine environments where there is limited scope for like-for-like offsets.

Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

The equity and efficiency of the Australian share market with respect to director trading

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent of directors breaching the reporting requirements of the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Corporations Act in Australia. Further, it seeks to assess whether directors in Australia achieve abnormal returns from trades in their own companies. Design/methodology/approach – Using an event study approach on an Australian sample, abnormal returns for a range of situations were estimated. Findings – A total of 13 (seven) per cent of own‐company directors trades do not meet the ASX (Corporations Act) requirement of reporting within five (14) business days. Directors do achieve abnormal returns through trading in shares of their own companies. Ignoring transaction costs, outsiders can achieve abnormal returns by imitating directors' trades. Analysis of returns to directors after they trade but before they announce the trade to the market shows that directors are making small but statistically significant returns that are not available to the market. Analysis of returns to directors subsequent to the ASX reporting requirement up to the day the trade is reported shows that directors are making small but statistically significant returns that should be available to the market. Research limitations/implications – Future research should investigate the linkages between late reporting by directors and disadvantages to outside shareholders and the implementation of internal policies implemented to mitigate insider trading. Practical implications – Market participants should remain vigilant regarding the potential for late/non‐reporting of directors' trades. Originality/value – Uncovering breaches of reporting regulations are particularly important given that directors tend to purchase (sell) shares when the price is low (high), thereby achieving abnormal returns.

The differential impact of monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases on the Australian interest rate futures market

Unlike US and Continental European jurisdictions, Australian monetary policy announcements are not followed promptly by projections materials or comprehensive summaries that explain the decision process. This information is disclosed 2 weeks later when the explanatory minutes of the Reserve Bank board meeting are released. This paper is the first study to exploit the features of the Australian monetary policy environment in order to examine the differential impact of monetary policy announcements and explanatory statements on the Australian interest rate futures market. We find that both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases have a significant impact on the implied yield and volatility of Australian interest rate futures contracts. When the differential impact of these announcements is examined using the full sample, no statistically significant difference is found. However, when the sample is partitioned based on stable periods and the Global Financial Crisis, a differential impact is evident. Further, contrary to the findings of Kim and Nguyen (2008), Lu et al. (2009), and Smales (2012a), the response along the yield curve, is found to be indifferent between the short and medium terms.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

Fertility in Australia: The role of policy and the labour market

One of the most discussed topics in labour and demographic studies, population ageing and stability, is closely related to fertility choices. This thesis explores recent developments in the fertility literature in the context of Australia. We investigate individual preferences for child bearing, the determinants of fertility decisions and the effectiveness of policies implemented by the government aimed at improving total fertility. The first study highlights the impact of monetary incentives on the decision to bear children in light of potentially differential responses across the native and immigrant population. The second study analyses the role of unemployment and job stability on the fertility choices of women. The final study examines whether the quality-quantity trade-off exists for Australian families and explores the impact of siblings on a child's health and educational outcomes.

Environmental efficiency of energy, materials, and emissions

This study estimates the environmental efficiency of international listed firms in 10 worldwide sectors from 2007 to 2013 by applying an order-m method, a non-parametric approach based on free disposal hull with subsampling bootstrapping. Using a conventional output of gross profit and two conventional inputs of labor and capital, this study examines the order-m environmental efficiency accounting for the presence of each of 10 undesirable inputs/outputs and measures the shadow prices of each undesirable input and output. The results show that there is greater potential for the reduction of undesirable inputs rather than bad outputs. On average, total energy, electricity, or water usage has the potential to be reduced by 50%. The median shadow prices of undesirable inputs, however, are much higher than the surveyed representative market prices. Approximately 10% of the firms in the sample appear to be potential sellers or production reducers in terms of undesirable inputs/outputs, which implies that the price of each item at the current level has little impact on most of the firms. Moreover, this study shows that the environmental, social, and governance activities of a firm do not considerably affect environmental efficiency.

Is there a link between poverty and food security?

This paper addresses the gap in economic theory underlying the multidimensional concept of food security and observed data by deriving a composite food security index using the latent class model. The link between poverty and food security is then examined using the new food security index and the robustness of the link is compared with two unidimensional measures often used in the literature. Using Vietnam as a case study, it was found that a weak link exists for the rural but not for the urban composite food security index. The unidimensional measures on the other hand show a strong link in both the rural and urban regions. The results on the link are also different and mixed when two poverty types given by persistent and transient poverty are considered. These findings have important policy implications for a targeted approach to addressing food security.

An empirical examination of the consequences of national pride: Analyses of survey and experimental data

National pride is both an important and understudied topic with respect to economic behaviour, hence this thesis investigates whether: 1) there is a "light" side of national pride through increased compliance, and a "dark" side linked to exclusion; 2) successful priming of national pride is linked to increased tax compliance; and 3) East German post-reunification outmigration is related to loyalty. The project comprises three related empirical studies, analysing evidence from a large, aggregated, international survey dataset; a tax compliance laboratory experiment combining psychological priming with measurement of heart rate variability; and data collected after the fall of the Berlin Wall (a situation approximating a natural experiment).

Floods and property values: A hedonic property and efficiency analysis

This study investigates the impact floods on property values using the hedonic property price approach and other relevant econometric techniques. The main objectives of this research are to investigate (1) the impact of the release of flood-risk information and the actual floods on property values (2) the temporal behaviour of negative impacts (3) the property submarket behaviour (4) the behaviour of flood affected vs flood non-affected areas and (5) the property market efficiency. The thesis expanded on the existing literature on natural disasters by applying a range of econometric techniques. Findings of this research are useful for policy decision-making which is aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of natural hazards on property markets. The thesis findings also provide a better framework for decision-making in the property insurance market. The methodological improvements that are made in the thesis will be invaluable for analysing the impacts of natural hazards elsewhere.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.