Using informative priors in the estimation of mixtures over time with application to aerosol particle size distributions

The issue of using informative priors for estimation of mixtures at multiple time points is examined. Several different informative priors and an independent prior are compared using samples of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. Measurements of aerosol PSDs refer to the concentration of aerosol particles in terms of their size, which is typically multimodal in nature and collected at frequent time intervals. The use of informative priors is found to better identify component parameters at each time point and more clearly establish patterns in the parameters over time. Some caveats to this finding are discussed.

Editorial : is it the time for railway industry to reinvent itself?

Editorial: is it the time for railway industry to reinvent itself? Railway infrastructure plays a critical role in urban development, mobility, and economic growth of society. This focus issue of the Electronic Journal of Structural Engineering is devoted to a special theme, “Advances in Rail Track Infrastructure and Practice - ARTRP”. It contains articles, which were rigorously peer reviewed and accepted from a list of invited manuscripts that demonstrate significant innovation in the area of the structural engineering aspects of the rail track infrastructure...

Impact forces at dipped rail joints

Impact forces develop at the wheel/rail interface due to the presence of defects in the running surface of the wheel and/ or the railhead. This paper reports on wheel impacts, caused by permanently dipped rail joints, that are characterised by high-frequency impact forces generated by high amplifications of the static load that occur for a very short duration (P1 forces), followed by relatively low frequency, lower amplitude forces (P2 forces) that occur for a longer duration. These impact forces are affected by the design of components adjacent to the wheel and rail, namely the bogie’s primary suspension and rail seat pads; the influences of stiffness and damping characteristics of these components are investigated. A modified three-dimensional simulation model of the dynamics of the wagon/track system that includes defects in the track is created and is used to obtain the time series of the impact force. This is converted into impact force factors that are compared with a set of field-measured data reported in the literature. A simplified equation for the determination of impact force factors due to dipped rail joints is also proposed and validated.

A runtime integrity monitoring framework for real-time relative positioning systems based on GPS and DSRC

This paper provides a three-layered framework to monitor the positioning performance requirements of Real-time Relative Positioning (RRP) systems of the Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) that support Cooperative Collision Warning (CCW) applications. These applications exploit state data of surrounding vehicles obtained solely from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) units without using other sensors. To this end, the paper argues the need for the GPS/DSRC-based RRP systems to have an autonomous monitoring mechanism, since the operation of CCW applications is meant to augment safety on roads. The advantages of autonomous integrity monitoring are essential and integral to any safety-of-life system. The autonomous integrity monitoring framework proposed necessitates the RRP systems to detect/predict the unavailability of their sub-systems and of the integrity monitoring module itself, and, if available, to account for effects of data link delays and breakages of DSRC links, as well as of faulty measurement sources of GPS and/or integrated augmentation positioning systems, before the information used for safety warnings/alarms becomes unavailable, unreliable, inaccurate or misleading. Hence, a monitoring framework using a tight integration and correlation approach is proposed for instantaneous reliability assessment of the RRP systems. Ultimately, using the proposed framework, the RRP systems will provide timely alerts to users when the RRP solutions cannot be trusted or used for the intended operation.

Time, space, and text in the elementary school digital writing classroom

Theorists of multiliteracies, social semiotics, and the New Literacy Studies have drawn attention to the potential changing nature of writing and literacy in the context of networked communications. This article reports findings from a design-based research project in Year 4 classrooms (students aged 8.5-10 years) in a low socioeconomic status school. A new writing program taught students how to design multimodal and digital texts across a range of genres and text types, such as web pages, online comics, video documentaries, and blogs. The authors use Bernstein’s theory of the pedagogic device to theorize the pedagogic struggles and resolutions in remaking English through the specialization of time, space, and text. The changes created an ideological struggle as new writing practices were adapted from broader societal fields to meet the instructional and regulative discourses of a conventional writing curriculum.

Socio-demographic vulnerability to heatwave impacts in Brisbane, Australia : a time series analysis

Objective: Examining the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and heat-related emergency department (ED) visits during heatwave periods in Brisbane, 2000–2008. Methods: Data from 10 public EDs were analysed using a generalised additive model for disease categories, age groups and gender. Results: Cumulative relative risks (RR) for non-external causes other than cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were 1.11 and 1.05 in most and least disadvantaged areas, respectively. The pattern persisted on lags 0–2. Elevated risks were observed for all age groups above 15 years in all areas. However, with RRs of 1.19–1.28, the 65–74 years age group in more disadvantaged areas stood out, compared with RR=1.08 in less disadvantaged areas. This pattern was observed on lag 0 but did not persist. The RRs for male presentations were 1.10 and 1.04 in most and less disadvantaged areas; for females, RR was 1.04 in less disadvantaged areas. This pattern persisted across lags 0–2. Conclusions: Heat-related ED visits increased during heatwaves. However, due to overlapping confidence intervals, variations across socioeconomic areas should be interpreted cautiously. Implications: ED data may be utilised for monitoring heat-related health impacts, particularly on the first day of heatwaves, to facilitate prompt interventions and targeted resource allocation.

An analytical framework for quantifying aquifer response time scales associated with transient boundary conditions

A major challenge in studying coupled groundwater and surface-water interactions arises from the considerable difference in the response time scales of groundwater and surface-water systems affected by external forcings. Although coupled models representing the interaction of groundwater and surface-water systems have been studied for over a century, most have focused on groundwater quantity or quality issues rather than response time. In this study, we present an analytical framework, based on the concept of mean action time (MAT), to estimate the time scale required for groundwater systems to respond to changes in surface-water conditions. MAT can be used to estimate the transient response time scale by analyzing the governing mathematical model. This framework does not require any form of transient solution (either numerical or analytical) to the governing equation, yet it provides a closed form mathematical relationship for the response time as a function of the aquifer geometry, boundary conditions, and flow parameters. Our analysis indicates that aquifer systems have three fundamental time scales: (i) a time scale that depends on the intrinsic properties of the aquifer; (ii) a time scale that depends on the intrinsic properties of the boundary condition, and; (iii) a time scale that depends on the properties of the entire system. We discuss two practical scenarios where MAT estimates provide useful insights and we test the MAT predictions using new laboratory-scale experimental data sets.

Effect of the increase in "alcopops" tax on alcohol-related harms in young people : a controlled interrupted time series

Objective: To measure alcohol-related harms to the health of young people presenting to emergency departments (EDs) of Gold Coast public hospitals before and after the increase in the federal government "alcopops" tax in 2008. Design, setting and participants: Interrupted time series analysis over 5 years (28 April 2005 to 27 April 2010) of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with presentations of selected control groups. Main outcome measures: Proportion of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with (i) 30-49-year-olds with alcohol-related harms, (ii)15-29-year-olds with asthma or appendicitis, and (iii) 15-29-yearolds with any non-alcohol and non-injury related ED presentation. Results: Over a third of 15-29-year-olds presented to ED with alcohol-related conditions, as opposed to around a quarter for all other age groups. There was no significant decrease in alcohol-related ED presentations of 15-29-year-olds compared with any of the control groups after the increase in the tax. We found similar results for males and females, narrow and broad definitions of alcoholrelated harms, under-19s, and visitors to and residents of the Gold Coast. Conclusions: The increase in the tax on al copops was not associated with any reduction in alcohol-related harms in this population in a unique tourist and holiday region. A more comprehensive approach to reducing alcohol harms in young people is needed.

A time series analysis of presentations to Queensland health facilities for alcohol-related conditions, following the increase in 'alcopops' tax

Objective: In response to concerns about the health consequences of high-risk drinking by young people, the Australian Government increased the tax on pre-mixed alcoholic beverages ('alcopops') favoured by this demographic. We measured changes in admissions for alcohol-related harm to health throughout Queensland, before and after the tax increase in April 2008. Methods: We used data from the Queensland Trauma Register, Hospitals Admitted Patients Data Collection, and the Emergency Department Information System to calculate alcohol-related admission rates per 100,000 people, for 15 - 29 year-olds. We analysed data over 3 years (April 2006 - April 2009), using interrupted time-series analyses. This covered 2 years before, and 1 year after, the tax increase. We investigated both mental and behavioural consequences (via F10 codes), and intentional/unintentional injuries (S and T codes). Results: We fitted an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to test for any changes following the increased tax. There was no decrease in alcohol-related admissions in 15 - 29 year-olds. We found similar results for males and females, as well as definitions of alcohol-related harms that were narrow (F10 codes only) and broad (F10, S and T codes). Conclusions: The increased tax on 'alcopops' was not associated with any reduction in hospital admissions for alcohol-related harms in Queensland 15 - 29 year-olds.

Event interval analysis: Why do processes take time?

Through the application of process mining, valuable evidence-based insights can be obtained about business processes in organisations. As a result the field has seen an increased uptake in recent years as evidenced by success stories and increased tool support. However, despite this impact, current performance analysis capabilities remain somewhat limited in the context of information-poor event logs. For example, natural daily and weekly patterns are not considered. In this paper a new framework for analysing event logs is defined which is based on the concept of event gap. The framework allows for a systematic approach to sophisticated performance-related analysis of event logs containing varying degrees of information. The paper formalises a range of event gap types and then presents an implementation as well as an evaluation of the proposed approach.

Emotional climate and behavioral management during sleep time in early childhood education settings

The majority of children cease napping between 3 and 5 years of age yet, internationally, the allocation of a sleep time during the day for children of this age remains a practice in many early childhood education (ECE) settings. These dual circumstances present a disjuncture between children's sleep needs and center practices, that may cause conflict for staff, increase stress for children and escalate negative emotional climate in the room. Testing this hypothesis requires observation of both the emotional climate and behavioral management used in ECE rooms that extends into the sleep time. This study was the first to apply the Classroom Assessment and Scoring System (CLASS) Pre-K (Pianta, La Paro, & Hamre, 2008) to observe the emotional climate and behavioral management during sleep time. Pilot results indicated that the CLASS Pre-K functioned reliably to measure emotional climate and behavioral management in sleep time. However, new sleep-specific examples of the dimensions used were developed, to help orient fieldworkers to the CLASS Pre-K rating system in the sleep time context. The CLASS was then used to assess emotional climate and behavior management between the non-sleep and sleep time sessions, in 113 ECE rooms in Queensland, Australia. In these rooms 2.114 children were observed. Of these children, 71% did not sleep at any point during the allotted sleep times. There was a significant drop in emotional climate and behavioral management between the non-sleep and sleep-time sessions. Furthermore, the duration of mandated sleep time (a period of time where no activities are provided to non-sleeping children) accounted for significant independent variance in the observed emotional climate during sleep-time. The CLASS Pre-K presents a valuable tool to assess the emotional climate and behavior management during sleep-time and draws attention to the need for further studies of sleep time in ECE settings.

Real-time decision making for autonomous city vehicles

This paper addresses the topic of real-time decision making by autonomous city vehicles. Beginning with an overview of the state of research, the paper presents the vehicle decision making & control systemarchitecture, explains the subcomponents which are relevant for decision making (World Model and Driving Maneuver subsystem), and presents the decision making process. Experimental test results confirmthe suitability of the developed approach to deal with the complex real-world urban traffic.

Multiple criteria-based real-time decision making by autonomous city vehicles

This paper addresses the topic of real-time decision making for autonomous city vehicles, i.e. the autonomous vehicles’ ability to make appropriate driving decisions in city road traffic situations. After decomposing the problem into two consecutive decision making stages, and giving a short overview about previous work, the paper explains how Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) can be used in the process of selecting the most appropriate driving maneuver.

Real-time decision making by driverless city vehicles : a discrete event driven approach

This thesis addresses the topic of real-time decision making by driverless (autonomous) city vehicles, i.e. their ability to make appropriate driving decisions in non-simplified urban traffic conditions. After addressing the state of research, and explaining the research question, the thesis presents solutions for the subcomponents which are relevant for decision making with respect to information input (World Model), information output (Driving Maneuvers), and the real-time decision making process. TheWorld Model is a software component developed to fulfill the purpose of collecting information from perception and communication subsystems, maintaining an up-to-date view of the vehicle’s environment, and providing the required input information to the Real-Time Decision Making subsystem in a well-defined, and structured way. The real-time decision making process consists of two consecutive stages. While the first decision making stage uses a Petri net to model the safetycritical selection of feasible driving maneuvers, the second stage uses Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods to select the most appropriate driving maneuver, focusing on fulfilling objectives related to efficiency and comfort. The complex task of autonomous driving is subdivided into subtasks, called driving maneuvers, which represent the output (i.e. decision alternatives) of the real-time decision making process. Driving maneuvers are considered as implementations of closed-loop control algorithms, each capable of maneuvering the autonomous vehicle in a specific traffic situation. Experimental tests in both a 3D simulation and real-world experiments attest that the developed approach is suitable to deal with the complexity of real-world urban traffic situations.