Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Addressing alcohol related harms within maxillofacial trauma practice

Background A brief intervention, conducted in the acute setting care setting after an alcohol-related injury, has been reported to be highly beneficial in reducing the risk of re-injury and in reducing subsequent level of alcohol consumption. This project aimed to understand Australasian Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons' attitudes, knowledge and skills in terms of alcohol screening and brief intervention within acute settings for patients admitted with facial trauma. Materials and Methods A web-based survey was made available to all members (n=200-250) of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (ANZAOMS), promoted through a number of email bulletins sent by the Association to all members. Implied consent is assumed for participants who complete the online survey. The survey explored their current level of involvement in treating patients with alcohol-relatd facial trauma, as well as their knowledge of and attitudes towards alcohol screening and brief intervention. The survey also explored their willingness for further training and involvement in implementing a SBI program. Parts of the survey were based on a hypothetical case with facial injury and drinking history which was presented to the participants and the participants were asked to give their response to this scenario. Results A total of 58 surgeons completed the on-line survey. 91% of surgeons surveyed were males and 88% were consultant surgeons. 71% would take alcohol history; 29% would deliver a brief alcohol intervention and 14% would refer the patients to an alcohol treatment service or clinician. 40% agreed to have adequate training in managing patients with alcohol-related injuries, while 17% and 19% felt they had adequate time and resources. 76% of surgeons reported the need for more information on where to refer patients for appropriate alcohol treatment. Conclusion The study findings confirm the challenges and barriers to implementing brief alcohol intervention in current practice. There are service gaps that exist, as well as opportunities for training.

Designing fashion : an exploration of practitioner research within the university environment

This thesis positions practitioner research within the emerging discipline of fashion and disputes that practitioner knowledge of fashion is predominantly tacit. This research contributes to the understanding of practitioner knowledge and proposes an object based model of practitioner research as an alternative to existing practice-led methodologies. The thesis theorises fashion objects as a site of significant knowledge and argues their potential to record and communicate fashion knowledge and disseminate practice-led research.

Managing knowledge for asset management : shifting from process to relational frames

The purpose of this paper is to review existing knowledge management (KM) practices within the field of asset management, identify gaps, and propose a new approach to managing knowledge for asset management. Existing approaches to KM in the field of asset management are incomplete with the focus primarily on the application of data and information systems, for example the use of an asset register. It is contended these approaches provide access to explicit knowledge and overlook the importance of tacit knowledge acquisition, sharing and application. In doing so, current KM approaches within asset management tend to neglect the significance of relational factors; whereas studies in the knowledge management field have showed that relational modes such as social capital is imperative for ef-fective KM outcomes. In this paper, we argue that incorporating a relational ap-proach to KM is more likely to contribute to the exchange of ideas and the devel-opment of creative responses necessary to improve decision-making in asset management. This conceptual paper uses extant literature to explain knowledge management antecedents and explore its outcomes in the context of asset man-agement. KM is a component in the new Integrated Strategic Asset Management (ISAM) framework developed in conjunction with asset management industry as-sociations (AAMCoG, 2012) that improves asset management performance. In this paper we use Nahapiet and Ghoshal’s (1998) model to explain antecedents of relational approach to knowledge management. Further, we develop an argument that relational knowledge management is likely to contribute to the improvement of the ISAM framework components, such as Organisational Strategic Manage-ment, Service Planning and Delivery. The main contribution of the paper is a novel and robust approach to managing knowledge that leads to the improvement of asset management outcomes.

Audit committee effectiveness in a mandatory disclosure environment

This study examines audit committee effectiveness in its association with regulatory compliance in a highly sanctioned environment. It uses the Australian continuous disclosure regime to investigate whether audit committee effectiveness is associated with a higher frequency of disclosures, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the capital market and creating more informed individual investors. The findings show that, as hypothesised, audit committee effectiveness measured as an index composed of sub-components involving audit committee size, meeting frequency, independence, member financial literacy and membership of other audit committees, is positively associated with disclosure frequency. Further tests show that it is the financial literacy sub component which is most implicated in this relationship. Company size, years of listing, the proportion of inventories and receivables to total assets, whether or not the company has been involved in a takeover offer or bid or in changes to its number of shares are significant control variables.

Better half-dead than read? The Mezzomorto cases and their implications for literary culture in the 1930s

This article focusses on the two libel cases arising from Brian Penton's review of Vivian Crockett's novel Mezzomorto for the Bulletin in 1934, viewing them as points of entry into Australian literary politics in the 1930s, and as windows on to one of the most enduring and interesting feuds in Australian literary culture, that between P.R. 'Inky' Stephensen, self-styled 'Bunyip Critic,' and Brian Penton, arch exponent of 'destructive criticism' and scourge of parochial pretension. The cases are particularly interesting for what they reveal about the evolving positions of two influential figures in Australian writing of the 1930s and 1940s. They also play in to contemporary debates about the state and status of 'literature' in Australia. And while Penton's biographer Patrick Buckridge avers that the cases did not impact on any of the larger contemporary literary issues (meaning censorship and free speech), a case may be made for the significance of the libel actions in the context of attempts to establish an industrial and cultural presence for a diverse range of Australian writing.

Women’s perceptions of their lifestyle and quality of life several years after a diagnosis of endometrial cancer

Background Few studies have examined the long-term changes experienced by women treated for endometrial cancer. Objective The objectives of this study were to describe what women perceived important to their lifestyle and quality of life in the years following their diagnosis and to provide new insights that might inform healthcare practice. Methods This was a thematic analysis of 237 open-ended comments from Australian women diagnosed with endometrial cancer 3 to 5 years previously. Results We identified 3 main themes: (1) personal change, in which women spoke about cancer as permanently altering their lives in mostly negative but sometimes positive ways; (2) continuity of former life, which described both the minimal impact of cancer on women's lives and identities and the difficulties negotiating this within the dominant "cancer survivorship" culture; (3) social support, where women wrote about how the quality of their relationships shaped their cancer trajectory. Conclusions While typical "survivorship" issues exist for many women with endometrial cancer (eg, physical, emotional, sexual health changes), a proportion of women will not be focused on their cancer and can be encouraged to form lives and identities that are not situated within the "cancer survivorship" culture. Implications for Practice A network of support, sensitive to women's responses to having cancer, may benefit women's long-term adjustment. Regular standardized assessment of women's needs may facilitate appropriate support for those with concerns, whereas those without concerns could be reassured by health professionals that their experience is normal and shared by other people with cancer. This may encourage women to form lives that are personally meaningful.

Injury narrative text classification : a preliminary study

Description of a patient's injuries is recorded in narrative text form by hospital emergency departments. For statistical reporting, this text data needs to be mapped to pre-defined codes. Existing research in this field uses the Naïve Bayes probabilistic method to build classifiers for mapping. In this paper, we focus on providing guidance on the selection of a classification method. We build a number of classifiers belonging to different classification families such as decision tree, probabilistic, neural networks, and instance-based, ensemble-based and kernel-based linear classifiers. An extensive pre-processing is carried out to ensure the quality of data and, in hence, the quality classification outcome. The records with a null entry in injury description are removed. The misspelling correction process is carried out by finding and replacing the misspelt word with a soundlike word. Meaningful phrases have been identified and kept, instead of removing the part of phrase as a stop word. The abbreviations appearing in many forms of entry are manually identified and only one form of abbreviations is used. Clustering is utilised to discriminate between non-frequent and frequent terms. This process reduced the number of text features dramatically from about 28,000 to 5000. The medical narrative text injury dataset, under consideration, is composed of many short documents. The data can be characterized as high-dimensional and sparse, i.e., few features are irrelevant but features are correlated with one another. Therefore, Matrix factorization techniques such as Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Non Negative Matrix Factorization (NNMF) have been used to map the processed feature space to a lower-dimensional feature space. Classifiers with these reduced feature space have been built. In experiments, a set of tests are conducted to reflect which classification method is best for the medical text classification. The Non Negative Matrix Factorization with Support Vector Machine method can achieve 93% precision which is higher than all the tested traditional classifiers. We also found that TF/IDF weighting which works well for long text classification is inferior to binary weighting in short document classification. Another finding is that the Top-n terms should be removed in consultation with medical experts, as it affects the classification performance.

Late reactivation of herpes zoster keratitis results in band keratopathy

Purpose To report an unusual case of a late-stage reactivation of immune stromal keratitis associated with herpes zoster ophthalmicus (HZO), occurring without any apparent predisposing factors, more than 4 years after an acute zoster dermatomal rash. Significant corneal hypoesthesia and a central band keratopathy developed within 6 months of the late-stage reactivation. The clinical case management, issues associated with management, and management options are discussed, including the use of standardized, regulatory approved, antibacterial medical honey. Case Report An 83-year-old woman presented for routine review with a reactivation of right anterior stromal keratitis and mild anterior uveitis, occurring more than 4 years after an acute HZO dermatomal rash and an associated initial episode of anterior stromal keratitis. Corneal sensation became markedly impaired, and over the subsequent 6 months, a right central band keratopathy developed despite oral antiviral and topical steroid therapy. Visual acuity with pinhole was reduced to 20/100 in the affected eye and moderate irritation and epiphora were experienced. The patient declined the surgical intervention options of chelation, lamellar keratectomy, and phototherapeutic keratectomy to treat the band keratopathy. Longer-term management has involved preservative-free artificial tears, eyelid hygiene, standardized antibacterial medical honey, topical nonpreserved steroid, and UV-protective wraparound sunglasses. The clinical condition has improved over 14 months with this ocular surface management regimen, and visual acuity of 20/30 is currently achieved in a comfortable eye. Conclusions The chronic and recurrent nature of HZO can be associated with significant corneal morbidity, even many years after the initial zoster episode. Long-term review and management of patients with a history of herpes zoster stromal keratitis are indicated following the initial corneal involvement. Standardized antibacterial medical honey can be considered in the management of the chronic ocular surface disease associated with HZO and warrants further evaluation in clinical trials.

A young immunocompetent patient with bilateral immune stromal keratitis due to varicella zoster and herpes simplex

This report describes the diagnostic features, clinical management and the issues associated with management of a young immunocompetent male who presented with a presumed left Herpes simplex immune stromal keratitis, and ten months later, a right immune stromal keratitis associated with Herpes zoster ophthalmicus.

Moderate physical activity level as a protective factor against metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women

Aims and objectives To investigate whether physical activity is a protective factor against metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women. Background Socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors contribute to metabolic syndrome. To minimise the risk of metabolic syndrome, several global guidelines recommend increasing physical activity level. However, only limited research has investigated the relationship between physical activity levels and metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women after adjusting for socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors. Design Cross-sectional design. Methods A convenience sample of 326 middle-aged and older women was recruited. Metabolic syndrome was confirmed according to the National Cholesterol Education Program, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and physical activity levels were measured by the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Results The sample had a mean age of 60•9 years, and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 43•3%. Postmenopausal women and women with low socioeconomic status (low-education background, without personal income and currently unemployed) had a significantly higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome. After adjusting for significant socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors, the women with moderate or high physical activity levels had a significantly lower (OR = 0•10; OR = 0•11, p < 0•001) risk of metabolic syndrome and a lower risk for each specific component of metabolic syndrome, including elevated fasting plasma glucose (OR = 0•29; OR = 0•26, p = 0•009), elevated blood pressure (OR = 0•18; OR = 0•32, p = 0•029), elevated triglycerides (OR = 0•41; OR = 0•15, p = 0•001), reduced high-density lipoprotein (OR = 0•28; OR = 0•27, p = 0•004) and central obesity (OR = 0•31; OR = 0•22, p = 0•027). Conclusions After adjusting for socio-demographic and lifestyle behaviour factors, physical activity level was a significant protective factor against metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women. Higher physical activity levels (moderate or high physical activity level) reduced the risk of metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older women. Relevance to clinical practice Appropriate strategies should be developed to encourage middle-aged and older women across different socio-demographic backgrounds to engage in moderate or high levels of physical activity to reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome.

Old mastheads and new media : newspapers striving to adapt in Australia and South-east Asia

As a key element in their response to new media forcing transformations in mass media and media use, newspapers have deployed various strategies to not only establish online and mobile products, and develop healthy business plans, but to set out to be dominant portals. Their response to change was the subject of an early investigation by one of the present authors (Keshvani 2000). That was part of a set of short studies inquiring into what impact new software applications and digital convergence might have on journalism practice (Tickle and Keshvani 2000), and also looking for demonstrations of the way that innovations, technologies and protocols then under development might produce a “wireless, streamlined electronic news production process (Tickle and Keshvani 2001).” The newspaper study compared the online products of The Age in Melbourne and the Straits Times in Singapore. It provided an audit of the Singapore and Australia Information and Communications Technology (ICT) climate concentrating on the state of development of carrier networks, as a determining factor in the potential strength of the two services with their respective markets. In the outcome, contrary to initial expectations, the early cable roll-out and extensive ‘wiring’ of the city in Singapore had not produced a level of uptake of Internet services as strong as that achieved in Melbourne by more ad hoc and varied strategies. By interpretation, while news websites and online content were at an early stage of development everywhere, and much the same as one another, no determining structural imbalance existed to separate these leading media participants in Australia and South-east Asia. The present research revisits that situation, by again studying the online editions of the two large newspapers in the original study, and one other, The Courier Mail, (recognising the diversification of types of product in this field, by including it as a representative of Newscorp, now a major participant). The inquiry works through the principle of comparison. It is an exercise in qualitative, empirical research that establishes a comparison between the situation in 2000 as described in the earlier work, and the situation in 2014, after a decade of intense development in digital technology affecting the media industries. It is in that sense a follow-up study on the earlier work, although this time giving emphasis to content and style of the actual products as experienced by their users. It compares the online and print editions of each of these three newspapers; then the three mastheads as print and online entities, among themselves; and finally it compares one against the other two, as representing a South-east Asian model and Australian models. This exercise is accompanied by a review of literature on the developments in ICT affecting media production and media organisations, to establish the changed context. The new study of the online editions is conducted as a systematic appraisal of the first level, or principal screens, of the three publications, over the course of six days (10-15.2.14 inclusive). For this, categories for analysis were made, through conducting a preliminary examination of the products over three days in the week before. That process identified significant elements of media production, such as: variegated sourcing of materials; randomness in the presentation of items; differential production values among media platforms considered, whether text, video or stills images; the occasional repurposing and repackaging of top news stories of the day and the presence of standard news values – once again drawn out of the trial ‘bundle’ of journalistic items. Reduced in this way the online artefacts become comparable with the companion print editions from the same days. The categories devised and then used in the appraisal of the online products have been adapted to print, to give the closest match of sets of variables. This device, to study the two sets of publications on like standards -- essentially production values and news values—has enabled the comparisons to be made. This comparing of the online and print editions of each of the three publications was set up as up the first step in the investigation. In recognition of the nature of the artefacts, as ones that carry very diverse information by subject and level of depth, and involve heavy creative investment in the formulation and presentation of the information; the assessment also includes an open section for interpreting and commenting on main points of comparison. This takes the form of a field for text, for the insertion of notes, in the table employed for summarising the features of each product, for each day. When the sets of comparisons as outlined above are noted, the process then becomes interpretative, guided by the notion of change. In the context of changing media technology and publication processes, what substantive alterations have taken place, in the overall effort of news organisations in the print and online fields since 2001; and in their print and online products separately? Have they diverged or continued along similar lines? The remaining task is to begin to make inferences from that. Will the examination of findings enforce the proposition that a review of the earlier study, and a forensic review of new models, does provide evidence of the character and content of change --especially change in journalistic products and practice? Will it permit an authoritative description on of the essentials of such change in products and practice? Will it permit generalisation, and provide a reliable base for discussion of the implications of change, and future prospects? Preliminary observations suggest a more dynamic and diversified product has been developed in Singapore, well themed, obviously sustained by public commitment and habituation to diversified online and mobile media services. The Australian products suggest a concentrated corporate and journalistic effort and deployment of resources, with a strong market focus, but less settled and ordered, and showing signs of limitations imposed by the delay in establishing a uniform, large broadband network. The scope of the study is limited. It is intended to test, and take advantage of the original study as evidentiary material from the early days of newspaper companies’ experimentation with online formats. Both are small studies. The key opportunity for discovery lies in the ‘time capsule’ factor; the availability of well-gathered and processed information on major newspaper company production, at the threshold of a transformational decade of change in their industry. The comparison stands to identify key changes. It should also be useful as a reference for further inquiries of the same kind that might be made, and for monitoring of the situation in regard to newspaper portals on line, into the future.