MODAM: A MODular Agent-based Modelling framework

Designing the smart grid requires combining varied models. As their number increases, so does the complexity of the software. Having a well thought architecture for the software then becomes crucial. This paper presents MODAM, a framework designed to combine agent-based models in a flexible and extensible manner, using well known software engineering design solutions (OSGi specification [1] and Eclipse plugins [2]). Details on how to build a modular agent-based model for the smart grid are given in this paper, illustrated by an example for a small network.

Spatio-temporal modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.

Polyalanine repeat polymorphism in RUNX2 is associated with site-specific fracture in post-menopausal females

Runt related transcription factor 2 (RUNX2) is a key regulator of osteoblast differentiation. Several variations within RUNX2 have been found to be associated with significant changes in BMD, which is a major risk factor for fracture. In this study we report that an 18bp deletion within the polyalanine tract (17A>11A) of RUNX2 is significantly associated with fracture. Carriers of the 11A allele were found to be nearly twice as likely to have sustained fracture. Within the fracture category, there was a significant tendency of 11A carriers to present with fractures of bones of intramembranous origin compared to bones of endochondral origin (p=0.005). In a population of random subjects, the 11A allele was associated with decreased levels of serum collagen cross links (CTx, p=0.01), suggesting decreased bone turnover. The transactivation function of the 11A allele was quantitatively decreased. Interestingly, we found no effect of the 11A allele on BMD at multiple skeletal sites, although these were not the sites where a relationship with fracture was most evident. These findings suggest that the 11A allele is a biologically relevant polymorphism that influences serum CTx and confers enhanced fracture risk in a site-selective manner related to intramembranous bone ossification.

Critical factors for sustainable reconstruction of post natural disasters

While scientists are still debating the level of climate change impact to new weather patterns, there have been some devastating natural disasters worldwide in the last decade. From cyclones to earthquakes and from Tsunamis to landslides, these disasters occur with formidable forces and crushing effects. As one of the most important arrangements to erase the negative influence of natural disasters and help with the recovery and redevelopment of the hit area, reconstruction is of utmost importance in light of sustainable objectives. However, current reconstruction practice confronts quite a lot of criticisms for focusing on providing short-term necessities. How to conduct the post disaster reconstruction in a long-term perspective and achieve sustainable development is thereby a highlight for industry practice and research. This paper introduced an on-going research project which is aimed at establishing an operational framework for improving sustainability performance of post disaster reconstruction by identifying critical sustainable factors and exploring their internal relationships. The research reported in this paper is part of the project. After a comprehensive literature review, 17 potential critical sustainability factors for post disaster reconstruction were identified. Preliminary examination and discussion of the factors was conducted.

Mathematical modelling of soft callus formation in early murine bone repair

Fracture healing is a complicated coupling of many processes. Yet despite the apparent complexity, fracture repair is usually effective. There is, however, no comprehensive mathematical model addressing the multiple interactions of cells, cytokines and oxygen that includes extra-cellular matrix production and that results in the formation of the early stage soft callus. This thesis develops a one dimensional continuum transport model in the context of early fracture healing. Although fracture healing is a complex interplay of many local factors, critical components are identified and used to construct an hypothesis about regulation of the evolution of early callus formation. Multiple cell lines, cellular differentiation, oxygen levels and cytokine concentrations are examined as factors affecting this model of early bone repair. The model presumes diffusive and chemotactic cell migration mechanisms. It is proposed that the initial signalling regime and oxygen availability arising as consequences of bone fracture, are sufficient to determine the quantity and quality of early soft callus formation. Readily available software and purpose written algorithms have been used to obtain numerical solutions representative of various initial conditions. These numerical distributions of cellular populations reflect available histology obtained from murine osteotomies. The behaviour of the numerical system in response to differing initial conditions can be described by alternative in vivo healing pathways. An experimental basis, as illustrated in murine fracture histology, has been utilised to validate the mathematical model outcomes. The model developed in this thesis has potential for future extension, to incorporate processes leading to woven bone deposition, while maintaining the characteristics that regulate early callus formation.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network Framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

Daytime pattern of post-exercise protein intake affects whole-body protein turnover in resistance-trained males

Background The pattern of protein intake following exercise may impact whole-body protein turnover and net protein retention. We determined the effects of different protein feeding strategies on protein metabolism in resistance-trained young men. Methods: Participants were randomly assigned to ingest either 80g of whey protein as 8x10g every 1.5h (PULSE; n=8), 4x20g every 3h (intermediate, INT; n=7), or 2x40g every 6h (BOLUS; n=8) after an acute bout of bilateral knee extension exercise (4x10 repetitions at 80% maximal strength). Whole-body protein turnover (Q), synthesis (S), breakdown (B), and net balance (NB) were measured throughout 12h of recovery by a bolus ingestion of [ 15N]glycine with urinary [15N]ammonia enrichment as the collected end-product. Results PULSE Q rates were greater than BOLUS (?19%, P<0.05) with a trend towards being greater than INT (?9%, P=0.08). Rates of S were 32% and 19% greater and rates of B were 51% and 57% greater for PULSE as compared to INT and BOLUS, respectively (P<0.05), with no difference between INT and BOLUS. There were no statistical differences in NB between groups (P=0.23); however, magnitude-based inferential statistics revealed likely small (mean effect90%CI; 0.590.87) and moderate (0.800.91) increases in NB for PULSE and INT compared to BOLUS and possible small increase (0.421.00) for INT vs. PULSE. Conclusion We conclude that the pattern of ingested protein, and not only the total daily amount, can impact whole-body protein metabolism. Individuals aiming to maximize NB would likely benefit from repeated ingestion of moderate amounts of protein (?20g) at regular intervals (?3h) throughout the day.

A pre-post evaluation of an ambulatory nutrition support service for malnourished patients post hospital discharge: a pilot study

Introduction Malnutrition is common among hospitalised patients, with poor follow-up of nutrition support post-discharge. Published studies on the efficacy of ambulatory nutrition support (ANS) for malnourished patients post-discharge are scarce. The aims of this study were to evaluate the rate of dietetics follow-up of malnourished patients post-discharge, before (2008) and after (2010) implementation of a new ANS service, and to evaluate nutritional outcomes post-implementation. Materials and Methods Consecutive samples of 261 (2008) and 163 (2010) adult inpatients referred to dietetics and assessed as malnourished using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) were enrolled. All subjects received inpatient nutrition intervention and dietetic outpatient clinic follow-up appointments. For the 2010 cohort, ANS was initiated to provide telephone follow-up and home visits for patients who failed to attend the outpatient clinic. Subjective Global Assessment, body weight, quality of life (EQ-5D VAS) and handgrip strength were measured at baseline and five months post-discharge. Paired t-test was used to compare pre- and post-intervention results. Results In 2008, only 15% of patients returned for follow-up with a dietitian within four months post-discharge. After implementation of ANS in 2010, the follow-up rate was 100%. Mean weight improved from 44.0 ± 8.5kg to 46.3 ± 9.6kg, EQ-5D VAS from 61.2 ± 19.8 to 71.6 ± 17.4 and handgrip strength from 15.1 ± 7.1 kg force to 17.5 ± 8.5 kg force; p<0.001 for all. Seventy-four percent of patients improved in SGA score. Conclusion Ambulatory nutrition support resulted in significant improvements in follow-up rate, nutritional status and quality of life of malnourished patients post-discharge.

Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND) : case of Bangkok metropolitan region (BMR), Thailand an eco-efficiency modelling approach

Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is the centre for various major activities in Thailand including political, industry, agriculture, and commerce. Consequently, the BMR is the highest and most densely populated area in Thailand. Thus, the demand for houses in the BMR is also the largest, especially in subdivision developments. For these reasons, the subdivision development in the BMR has increased substantially in the past 20 years and generated large numbers of subdivision developments (AREA, 2009; Kridakorn Na Ayutthaya & Tochaiwat, 2010). However, this dramatic growth of subdivision development has caused several problems including unsustainable development, especially for subdivision neighbourhoods, in the BMR. There have been rating tools that encourage the sustainability of neighbourhood design in subdivision development, but they still have practical problems. Such rating tools do not cover the scale of the development entirely; and they concentrate more on the social and environmental conservation aspects, which have not been totally accepted by the developers (Boonprakub, 2011; Tongcumpou & Harvey, 1994). These factors strongly confirm the need for an appropriate rating tool for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design in the BMR. To improve level of acceptance from all stakeholders in subdivision developments industry, the new rating tool should be developed based on an approach that unites the social, environmental, and economic approaches, such as eco-efficiency principle. Eco-efficiency is the sustainability indicator introduced by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) since 1992. The eco-efficiency is defined as the ratio of the product or service value according to its environmental impact (Lehni & Pepper, 2000; Sorvari et al., 2009). Eco-efficiency indicator is concerned to the business, while simultaneously, is concerned with to social and the environment impact. This study aims to develop a new rating tool named "Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND)". The RSSND methodology is developed by a combination of literature reviews, field surveys, the eco-efficiency model development, trial-and-error technique, and the tool validation process. All required data has been collected by the field surveys from July to November 2010. The ecoefficiency model is a combination of three different mathematical models; the neighbourhood property price (NPP) model, the neighbourhood development cost (NDC) model, and the neighbourhood occupancy cost (NOC) model which are attributable to the neighbourhood subdivision design. The NPP model is formulated by hedonic price model approach, while the NDC model and NOC model are formulated by the multiple regression analysis approach. The trial-and-error technique is adopted for simplifying the complex mathematic eco-efficiency model to a user-friendly rating tool format. Credibility of the RSSND has been validated by using both rated and non-rated of eight subdivisions. It is expected to meet the requirements of all stakeholders which support the social activities of the residents, maintain the environmental condition of the development and surrounding areas, and meet the economic requirements of the developers.

Evaluation of an ambulatory nutrition support service for malnourished patients post hospital discharge

Introduction Malnutrition is common among hospitalised patients, with poor follow-up of nutrition support post-discharge. Published studies on the efficacy of ambulatory nutrition support (ANS) for malnourished patients post-discharge are scarce. The aims of this study were to evaluate the rate of dietetics follow-up of malnourished patients post-discharge, before (2008) and after (2010) implementation of a new ANS service, and to evaluate nutritional outcomes post-implementation. Materials and Methods Consecutive samples of 261 (2008) and 163 (2010) adult inpatients referred to dietetics and assessed as malnourished using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) were enrolled. All subjects received inpatient nutrition intervention and dietetic outpatient clinic follow-up appointments. For the 2010 cohort, ANS was initiated to provide telephone follow-up and home visits for patients who failed to attend the outpatient clinic. Subjective Global Assessment, body weight, quality of life (EQ-5D VAS) and handgrip strength were measured at baseline and five months post-discharge. Paired t-test was used to compare pre- and post-intervention results. Results In 2008, only 15% of patients returned for follow-up with a dietitian within four months post-discharge. After implementation of ANS in 2010, the follow-up rate was 100%. Mean weight improved from 44.0 ± 8.5kg to 46.3 ± 9.6kg, EQ-5D VAS from 61.2 ± 19.8 to 71.6 ± 17.4 and handgrip strength from 15.1 ± 7.1 kg force to 17.5 ± 8.5 kg force; p<0.001 for all. Seventy-four percent of patients improved in SGA score. Conclusion Ambulatory nutrition support resulted in significant improvements in follow-up rate, nutritional status and quality of life of malnourished patients post-discharge.

Parametric modelling for the efficient design of daylight strategies with complex geometries

Daylight devices are important components of any climate responsive façade system. But, the evolution of parametric CAD systems and digital fabrication has had an impact on architectural form so that regular forms are shifting to complex geometries. Architectural and engineering integration of daylight devices in envelopes with complex geometries is a challenge in terms of design and performance evaluation. The purpose of this paper is to assess daylight performance of a building with a climatic responsive envelope with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. The case study is based on the Esplanade buildings in Singapore. Climate-based day-light metrics such as Daylight Availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance are used. DIVA (daylight simulation), and Grasshopper (parametric analysis) plug-ins for Rhinoceros have been employed to examine the range of performance possibilities. Parameters such as dimension, inclination of the device, projected shadows and shape have been changed in order to maximize daylight availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance while minimizing glare probability. While orientation did not have a great impact on the results, aperture of the shading devices did, showing that shading devices with a projection of 1.75 m to 2.00 m performed best, achieving target lighting levels without issues of glare.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Research trends of post disaster reconstruction : the past and the future

Natural disasters can have adverse effect on human lives. To raise the awareness of research and better combat future events, it is important to identify recent research trends in the area of post disaster reconstruction (PDR). The authors used a three-round literature review strategy to study journal papers published in the last decade that are related to PDR with specific conditions using the Scopus search engine. A wide range of PDR related papers from a general perspective was examined in the first two rounds while the final round established 88 papers as target publications through visual examination of the abstracts, keywords and as necessary, main texts. These papers were analysed in terms of research origins, active researchers, research organisations, most cited papers, regional concerns, major themes and deliverables, for clues of the past trends and future directions. The need for appropriate PDR research is increasingly recognised. The publication number multiplied 5 times from 2002 to 2012. For PDR research with a construction perspective, the increase is sixfold. Developing countries such as those in Asia attract almost 50% researchers' attention for regional concerns while the US is the single most concentrated (24%) country. Africa is hardly represented. Researchers in developed countries lead in worldwide PDR research. This contrasts to the need for expertise in developing countries. Past works focused on waste management, stakeholder analysis, resourcing, infrastructure issue, resilience and vulnerability, reconstruction approach, sustainable reconstruction and governance issues. Future research should respond to resourcing, integrated development, sustainability and resilience building to cover the gaps. By means of a holistic summary and structured analysis of key patterns, the authors hope to provide a streamlined access to existing research findings and make predictions of future trends. They also hope to encourage a more holistic approach to PDR research and international collaborations.

Self-gifting guilt : an examination of self-gifting motivations and post-purchase regret

Purpose Self-gifting is a performative process in which consumers purchase products for themselves. The literature to date remains silent on a determination and connection between the extents of post-purchase regret resulting from self-gifting behavior. The purpose of this paper is to examine identification and connection of self-gifting antecedents, self-gifting and the effect on post purchase regret. Design/methodology/approach This study claims the two antecedents of hedonistic shopping and indulgence drive self-gifting behaviors and the attendant regret. A total of 307 shoppers responded to a series of statements concerning the relationships between antecedents of self-gifting behavior and the effect on post-purchase regret. Self-gifting is a multi-dimensional construct, consisting of therapeutic, celebratory, reward and hedonistic imports. Confirmatory factor analysis and AMOS path modeling enabled examination of relationships between the consumer traits of hedonistic shopping and indulgence and the four self-gifting concepts. Findings Hedonic and indulgent shoppers engage in self-gifting for different reasons. A strong and positive relationship was identified between hedonic shoppers and reward, hedonic, therapeutic and celebratory self-gift motivations. hedonic shoppers aligned with indulgent shoppers who also engaged the four self-gifting concepts. The only regret concerning purchase of self-gifts was evident in the therapeutic and celebratory self-gift motivations. Research limitations/implications A major limitation was the age range specification of 18 to 45 years which meant the omission of older generations of regular and experienced shoppers. This study emphasizes the importance of variations in self-gift behaviors and of post-purchase consumer regret. Originality/value This research is the first examination of an hedonic attitude to shopping and indulgent antecedents to self-gift purchasing, the concepts of self-gift motivations and their effect on post-purchase regret.

A novel iterative method for simulating patient-specific optimal deformation and fit of fracture fixation plates

This paper proposes a new iterative method to achieve an optimally fitting plate for preoperative planning purposes. The proposed method involves integration of four commercially available software tools, Matlab, Rapidform2006, SolidWorks and ANSYS, each performing specific tasks to obtain a plate shape that fits optimally for an individual tibia and is mechanically safe. A typical challenge when crossing multiple platforms is to ensure correct data transfer. We present an example of the implementation of the proposed method to demonstrate successful data transfer between the four platforms and the feasibility of the method.