Generalizing the use of geographical weights in biodiversity modelling

Aim Determining how ecological processes vary across space is a major focus in ecology. Current methods that investigate such effects remain constrained by important limiting assumptions. Here we provide an extension to geographically weighted regression in which local regression and spatial weighting are used in combination. This method can be used to investigate non-stationarity and spatial-scale effects using any regression technique that can accommodate uneven weighting of observations, including machine learning. Innovation We extend the use of spatial weights to generalized linear models and boosted regression trees by using simulated data for which the results are known, and compare these local approaches with existing alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The spatial weighting procedure (1) explained up to 80% deviance in simulated species richness, (2) optimized the normal distribution of model residuals when applied to generalized linear models versus GWR, and (3) detected nonlinear relationships and interactions between response variables and their predictors when applied to boosted regression trees. Predictor ranking changed with spatial scale, highlighting the scales at which different species–environment relationships need to be considered. Main conclusions GWR is useful for investigating spatially varying species–environment relationships. However, the use of local weights implemented in alternative modelling techniques can help detect nonlinear relationships and high-order interactions that were previously unassessed. Therefore, this method not only informs us how location and scale influence our perception of patterns and processes, it also offers a way to deal with different ecological interpretations that can emerge as different areas of spatial influence are considered during model fitting.

Two-scale computational modelling of water flow in unsaturated soils containing irregular-shaped inclusions

The focus of this paper is two-dimensional computational modelling of water flow in unsaturated soils consisting of weakly conductive disconnected inclusions embedded in a highly conductive connected matrix. When the inclusions are small, a two-scale Richards’ equation-based model has been proposed in the literature taking the form of an equation with effective parameters governing the macroscopic flow coupled with a microscopic equation, defined at each point in the macroscopic domain, governing the flow in the inclusions. This paper is devoted to a number of advances in the numerical implementation of this model. Namely, by treating the micro-scale as a two-dimensional problem, our solution approach based on a control volume finite element method can be applied to irregular inclusion geometries, and, if necessary, modified to account for additional phenomena (e.g. imposing the macroscopic gradient on the micro-scale via a linear approximation of the macroscopic variable along the microscopic boundary). This is achieved with the help of an exponential integrator for advancing the solution in time. This time integration method completely avoids generation of the Jacobian matrix of the system and hence eases the computation when solving the two-scale model in a completely coupled manner. Numerical simulations are presented for a two-dimensional infiltration problem.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Robust iris recognition using decision fusion and degradation modelling

This thesis investigates the use of fusion techniques and mathematical modelling to increase the robustness of iris recognition systems against iris image quality degradation, pupil size changes and partial occlusion. The proposed techniques improve recognition accuracy and enhance security. They can be further developed for better iris recognition in less constrained environments that do not require user cooperation. A framework to analyse the consistency of different regions of the iris is also developed. This can be applied to improve recognition systems using partial iris images, and cancelable biometric signatures or biometric based cryptography for privacy protection.

Genome-wide association study of intraocular pressure identifies the GLCCI1/ICA1 region as a glaucoma susceptibility locus

To discover quantitative trait loci for intraocular pressure, amajor risk factor for glaucoma and the only modifiable one,weperformed agenome-wide association studyonadiscoverycohort of2175individualsfromSydney, Australia. We found a novel association between intraocular pressure and a common variant at 7p21 near to GLCCI1 and ICA1. The findings in this region were confirmed through two UK replication cohorts totalling 4866 individuals (rs59072263, Pcombined = 1.10 × 10-8). A copy of the G allele at this SNP is associated with an increase in mean IOP of 0.45 mmHg (95%CI = 0.30-0.61 mmHg). These results lend support to the implication of vesicle trafficking and glucocorticoid inducibility pathways in the determination of intraocular pressure and in the pathogenesis of primary open-angle glaucoma.

Common variants in the HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 HLA class II region are associated with susceptibility to visceral leishmaniasis

To identify susceptibility loci for visceral leishmaniasis, we undertook genome-wide association studies in two populations: 989 cases and 1,089 controls from India and 357 cases in 308 Brazilian families (1,970 individuals). The HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 locus was the only region to show strong evidence of association in both populations. Replication at this region was undertaken in a second Indian population comprising 941 cases and 990 controls, and combined analysis across the three cohorts for rs9271858 at this locus showed P combined = 2.76 × 10 -17 and odds ratio (OR) = 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.30-1.52. A conditional analysis provided evidence for multiple associations within the HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 region, and a model in which risk differed between three groups of haplotypes better explained the signal and was significant in the Indian discovery and replication cohorts. In conclusion, the HLA-DRB1-HLA-DQA1 HLA class II region contributes to visceral leishmaniasis susceptibility in India and Brazil, suggesting shared genetic risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis that cross the epidemiological divides of geography and parasite species. © 2013 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of 15 new psoriasis susceptibility loci highlights the role of innate immunity

To gain further insight into the genetic architecture of psoriasis, we conducted a meta-analysis of 3 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and 2 independent data sets genotyped on the Immunochip, including 10,588 cases and 22,806 controls. We identified 15 new susceptibility loci, increasing to 36 the number associated with psoriasis in European individuals. We also identified, using conditional analyses, five independent signals within previously known loci. The newly identified loci shared with other autoimmune diseases include candidate genes with roles in regulating T-cell function (such as RUNX3, TAGAP and STAT3). Notably, they included candidate genes whose products are involved in innate host defense, including interferon-mediated antiviral responses (DDX58), macrophage activation (ZC3H12C) and nuclear factor (NF)-κB signaling (CARD14 and CARM1). These results portend a better understanding of shared and distinctive genetic determinants of immune-mediated inflammatory disorders and emphasize the importance of the skin in innate and acquired host defense. © 2012 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

ANKH and susceptibility to and severity of ankylosing spondylitis

Objective. Unconfirmed reports describe association of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) with several candidate genes including ANKH. Cellular export of inorganic pyrophosphate is regulated by the ANK protein, and mutant mice (ank/ank), which have a premature stop codon in the 3′ end of the ank gene, develop severe ankylosis. We tested the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in these genes and susceptibility to AS in a population of patients with AS. We investigated the role of these genes in terms of functional (BASFI) and metrological (BASMI) measures, and the association with radiological severity (mSASSS). Methods. Our study was conducted on 355 patients with AS and 95 ethnically matched healthy controls. AS was defined according to the modified New York criteria. Four SNP in ANKH (rs27356, rs26307, rs25957, and rs28006) were genotyped. Association analysis was performed using Cochrane-Armitage and linear regression tests for dichotomous and quantitative variables. Analyses of Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), BASFI, and mSASSS were controlled for sex and disease duration. Results. None of the 4 markers showed significant single-locus disease associations (p > 0.05), suggesting that ANKH was not a major determinant of AS susceptibility in our population. No association was observed between these SNP and age at symptom onset, BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI, or mSASSS. Conclusion. These results confirm data in white Europeans that ANKH is probably not a major determinant of susceptibility to AS. ANKH polymorphisms do not markedly influence AS disease severity, as measured by BASMI and mSASSS. The Journal of Rheumatology

Interaction between ERAP1 and HLA-B27 in ankylosing spondylitis implicates peptide handling in the mechanism for HLA-B27 in disease susceptibility

Ankylosing spondylitis is a common form of inflammatory arthritis predominantly affecting the spine and pelvis that occurs in approximately 5 out of 1,000 adults of European descent. Here we report the identification of three variants in the RUNX3, LTBR-TNFRSF1A and IL12B regions convincingly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (P < 5 × 10-8 in the combined discovery and replication datasets) and a further four loci at PTGER4, TBKBP1, ANTXR2 and CARD9 that show strong association across all our datasets (P < 5 × 10-6 overall, with support in each of the three datasets studied). We also show that polymorphisms of ERAP1, which encodes an endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase involved in peptide trimming before HLA class I presentation, only affect ankylosing spondylitis risk in HLA-B27-positive individuals. These findings provide strong evidence that HLA-B27 operates in ankylosing spondylitis through a mechanism involving aberrant processing of antigenic peptides.

Genome-wide association study identifies susceptibility loci for open angle glaucoma at TMCO1 and CDKN2B-AS1

We report a genome-wide association study for open-angle glaucoma (OAG) blindness using a discovery cohort of 590 individuals with severe visual field loss (cases) and 3,956 controls. We identified associated loci at TMCO1 (rs4656461[G] odds ratio (OR) = 1.68, P = 6.1 × 10-10) and CDKN2B-AS1 (rs4977756[A] OR = 1.50, P = 4.7 × 10-9). We replicated these associations in an independent cohort of cases with advanced OAG (rs4656461 P = 0.010; rs4977756 P = 0.042) and two additional cohorts of less severe OAG (rs4656461 combined discovery and replication P = 6.00 × 10-14, OR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.35-1.68; rs4977756 combined P = 1.35 × 10-14, OR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.28-1.51). We show retinal expression of genes at both loci in human ocular tissues. We also show that CDKN2A and CDKN2B are upregulated in the retina of a rat model of glaucoma. © 2011 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

A genome-wide asociation study identifies new psoriasis susceptibility loci and an interaction betwEn HLA-C and ERAP1

To identify new susceptibility loci for psoriasis, we undertOk a genome-wide asociation study of 594,224 SNPs in 2,622 individuals with psoriasis and 5,667 controls. We identified asociations at eight previously unreported genomic loci. Seven loci harbored genes with recognized iMune functions (IL28RA, REL, IFIH1, ERAP1, TRAF3IP2, NFKBIA and TYK2). These asociations were replicated in 9,079 European samples (six loci with a combined P < 5-10 -8 and two loci with a combined P < 5-10-7). We also report compeLing evidence for an interaction betwEn the HLA-C and ERAP1 loci (combined P = 6.95-10-6). ERAP1 plays an important role in MHC claS I peptide proceSing. ERAP1 variants only influenced psoriasis susceptibility in individuals carrying the HLA-C risk aLele. Our findings implicate pathways that integrate epidermal barrier dysfunction with iNate and adaptive iMune dysregulation in psoriasis pathogenesis.

Genome-wide association study of ankylosing spondylitis identifies non-MHC susceptibility loci

To identify susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis, we undertook a genome-wide association study in 2,053 unrelated ankylosing spondylitis cases among people of European descent and 5,140 ethnically matched controls, with replication in an independent cohort of 898 ankylosing spondylitis cases and 1,518 controls. Cases were genotyped with Illumina HumHap370 genotyping chips. In addition to strong association with the major histocompatibility complex (MHC; P 10 800), we found association with SNPs in two gene deserts at 2p15 (rs10865331; combined P = 1.9 × 10 19) and 21q22 (rs2242944; P = 8.3 × 10 20), as well as in the genes ANTXR2 (rs4333130; P = 9.3 × 10 8) and IL1R2 (rs2310173; P = 4.8 × 10 7). We also replicated previously reported associations at IL23R (rs11209026; P = 9.1 × 10 14) and ERAP1 (rs27434; P = 5.3 × 10 12). This study reports four genetic loci associated with ankylosing spondylitis risk and identifies a major role for the interleukin (IL)-23 and IL-1 cytokine pathways in disease susceptibility. © 2010 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Susceptibility to social engineering in social networking sites: The case of Facebook

Past research has suggested that social engineering poses the most significant security risk. Recent studies have suggested that social networking sites (SNSs) are the most common source of social engineering attacks. The risk of social engineering attacks in SNSs is associated with the difficulty of making accurate judgments regarding source credibility in the virtual environment of SNSs. In this paper, we quantitatively investigate source credibility dimensions in terms of social engineering on Facebook, as well as the source characteristics that influence Facebook users to judge an attacker as credible, therefore making them susceptible to victimization. Moreover, in order to predict users’ susceptibility to social engineering victimization based on their demographics, we investigate the effectiveness of source characteristics on different demographic groups by measuring the consent intentions and behavior responses of users to social engineering requests using a role-play experiment.

Genome-wide association study of ulcerative colitis identifies three new susceptibility loci, including the HNF4A region

Ulcerative colitis is a common form of inflammatory bowel disease with a complex etiology. As part of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2, we performed a genome-wide association scan for ulcerative colitis in 2,361 cases and 5,417 controls. Loci showing evidence of association at P 1 × 10 5 were followed up by genotyping in an independent set of 2,321 cases and 4,818 controls. We find genome-wide significant evidence of association at three new loci, each containing at least one biologically relevant candidate gene, on chromosomes 20q13 (HNF4A; P = 3.2 × 10 17), 16q22 (CDH1 and CDH3; P = 2.8 × 10 8) and 7q31 (LAMB1; P = 3.0 × 10 8). Of note, CDH1 has recently been associated with susceptibility to colorectal cancer, an established complication of longstanding ulcerative colitis. The new associations suggest that changes in the integrity of the intestinal epithelial barrier may contribute to the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis. © 2009 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of PTPN22 C1858T polymorphism on susceptibility and clinical characteristics of British Caucasian rheumatoid arthritis patients

Objectives. To confirm the association of a functional single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), C1858T (rs2476601), in the PTPN22 gene of British Caucasian rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients and to evaluate its influence on the RA phenotype. Methods. A total of 686 RA patients and 566 healthy volunteers, all of British Caucasian origin, were genotyped for C1858T polymorphism by PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism assay. Data were analysed using SPSS software and the χ 2 test as applicable. Results. The PTPN22 1858T risk allele was more prevalent in the RA patients (13.9%) compared with the healthy controls (10.3%) (P = 0.008, odds ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.79). The association of the T allele was restricted to those with rheumatoid factor (RF)-positive disease (n = 524, 76.4%) (P = 0.004, odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.9). We found no association between PTPN22 and the presence of the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope or clinical characteristics. Conclusions. We confirmed the previously reported association of PTPN22 with RF-positive RA, which was independent from the HLA-DRB1 genotype.