Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Creating flexible mappings between building information models and cost information

During the early design stages of construction projects, accurate and timely cost feedback is critical to design decision making. This is particularly challenging for cost estimators, as they must quickly and accurately estimate the cost of the building when the design is still incomplete and evolving. State-of-the-art software tools typically use a rule-based approach to generate detailed quantities from the design details present in a building model and relate them to the cost items in a cost estimating database. In this paper, we propose a generic approach for creating and maintaining a cost estimate using flexible mappings between a building model and a cost estimate. The approach uses queries on the building design that are used to populate views, and each view is then associated with one or more cost items. The benefit of this approach is that the flexibility of modern query languages allows the estimator to encode a broad variety of relationships between the design and estimate. It also avoids the use of a common standard to which both designers and estimators must conform, allowing the estimator added flexibility and functionality to their work.

Novel use of faecal sterols to assess human faecal contamination in Antarctica : a likelihood assessment matrix for environmental monitoring

Wastewater containing human sewage is often discharged with little or no treatment into the Antarctic marine environment. Faecal sterols (primarily coprostanol) in sediments have been used for assessment of human sewage contamination in this environment, but in situ production and indigenous faunal inputs can confound such determinations. Using gas chromatography with mass spectral detection profiles of both C27 and C29 sterols, potential sources of faecal sterols were examined in nearshore marine sediments, encompassing sites proximal and distal to the wastewater outfall at Davis Station. Faeces from indigenous seals and penguins were also examined. Faeces from several indigenous species contained significant quantities of coprostanol but not 24-ethylcoprostanol, which is present in human faeces. In situ coprostanol and 24-ethylcoprostanol production was identified by co-production of their respective epi isomers at sites remote from the wastewat er source and in high total organic matter sediments. A C 29 sterols-based polyphasic likelihood assessment matrix for human sewage contamination is presented, which distinguishes human from local fauna faecal inputs and in situ production in the Antarctic environment. Sewage contamination was detected up to 1.5 km from Davis Station.

Si quantum dots embedded in an amorphous SiC matrix : nanophase control by non-equilibrium plasma hydrogenation

Nanophase nc-Si/a-SiC films that contain Si quantum dots (QDs) embedded in an amorphous SiC matrix were deposited on single-crystal silicon substrates using inductively coupled plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition from the reactive silane and methane precursor gases diluted with hydrogen at a substrate temperature of 200 °C. The effect of the hydrogen dilution ratio X (X is defined as the flow rate ratio of hydrogen-to-silane plus methane gases), ranging from 0 to 10.0, on the morphological, structural, and compositional properties of the deposited films, is extensively and systematically studied by scanning electron microscopy, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, Fourier-transform infrared absorption spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Effective nanophase segregation at a low hydrogen dilution ratio of 4.0 leads to the formation of highly uniform Si QDs embedded in the amorphous SiC matrix. It is also shown that with the increase of X, the crystallinity degree and the crystallite size increase while the carbon content and the growth rate decrease. The obtained experimental results are explained in terms of the effect of hydrogen dilution on the nucleation and growth processes of the Si QDs in the high-density plasmas. These results are highly relevant to the development of next-generation photovoltaic solar cells, light-emitting diodes, thin-film transistors, and other applications.

Single-step, rapid low-temperature synthesis of Si quantum dots embedded in an amorphous SiC matrix in high-density reactive plasmas

A simple, effective and innovative approach based on low-pressure, thermally nonequilibrium, high-density inductively coupled plasmas is proposed to rapidly synthesize Si quantum dots (QDs) embedded in an amorphous SiC (a-SiC) matrix at a low substrate temperature and without any commonly used hydrogen dilution. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that uniform crystalline Si QDs with a size of 3-4 nm embedded in the silicon-rich (carbon content up to 10.7at.%) a-SiC matrix can be formed from the reactive mixture of silane and methane gases, with high growth rates of ∼1.27-2.34 nm s-1 and at a low substrate temperature of 200 °C. The achievement of the high-rate growth of Si QDs embedded in the a-SiC without any commonly used hydrogen dilution is discussed based on the unique properties of the inductively coupled plasma-based process. This work is particularly important for the development of the all-Si tandem cell-based third generation photovoltaic solar cells.

Compressed sensing using hidden Markov models with application to vision based aircraft tracking

This paper investigates compressed sensing using hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hence provides an extension of recent single frame, bounded error sparse decoding problems into a class of sparse estimation problems containing both temporal evolution and stochastic aspects. This paper presents two optimal estimators for compressed HMMs. The impact of measurement compression on HMM filtering performance is experimentally examined in the context of an important image based aircraft target tracking application. Surprisingly, tracking of dim small-sized targets (as small as 5-10 pixels, with local detectability/SNR as low as − 1.05 dB) was only mildly impacted by compressed sensing down to 15% of original image size.

Models of social media adoption in emergency management organisations

Recent natural disasters such as the Haitian earthquake 2011, the South East Queensland floods 2011, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in the United States of America in 2012, have seen social media platforms changing the face of emergency management communications, not only in times of crisis and also during business-as-usual operations. With social media being such an important and powerful communication tool, especially for emergency management organisations, the question arises as to whether the use of social media in these organisations emerged by considered strategic design or more as a reactive response to a new and popular communication channel. This paper provides insight into how the social media function has been positioned, staffed and managed in organisations throughout the world, with a particular focus on how these factors influence the style of communication used on social media platforms. This study has identified that the social media function falls on a continuum between two polarised models, namely the authoritative one-way communication approach and the more interactive approach that seeks to network and engage with the community through multi-way communication. Factors such the size of the organisation; dedicated resourcing of the social media function; organisational culture and mission statement; the presence of a social media champion within the organisation; management style and knowledge about social media play a key role in determining where on the continuum organisations sit in relation to their social media capability. This review, together with a forthcoming survey of Australian emergency management organisations and local governments, will fill a gap in the current body of knowledge about the evolution, positioning and usage of social media in organisations working in the emergency management field in Australia. These findings will be fed back to Industry for potential inclusion in future strategies and practices.

Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.

Using patient specific finite element models to understand the biomechanics of paediatric spinal deformity surgery

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a spinal deformity, which may require surgical correction by attaching rods to the patient’s spine using screws inserted into the vertebrae. Complication rates for deformity correction surgery are unacceptably high. Determining an achievable correction without overloading the adjacent spinal tissues or implants requires an understanding of the mechanical interaction between these components. We have developed novel patient specific modelling software to create individualized finite element models (FEM) representing the thoracolumbar spine and ribcage of scoliosis patients. We are using these models to better understand the biomechanics of spinal deformity correction.

A three-phase to single-phase matrix converter based bi-directional IPT system for charging electric vehicles

This paper presents a novel three-phase to single-phase matrix converter (TSMC) based bi-directional inductive power transfer (IPT) system for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications. In contrast to existing techniques, the proposed technique which employs a TSMC to drive an 8th order high frequency resonant network, requires only a single-stage power conversion process to facilitate bi-directional power transfer between electric vehicles (EVs) and a three-phase utility power supply. A mathematical model is presented to demonstrate that both magnitude and direction of power flow can be controlled by regulating either relative phase angles or magnitudes of voltages generated by converters. The viability of the proposed mathematical model is verified using simulated results of a 10 kW bi-directional IPT system and the results suggest that the proposed system is efficient, reliable and is suitable for high power applications which require contactless power transfer.

A model for estimating grid side harmonics of matrix converter based bi-directional IPT systems

Matrix converter (MC) based bi-directional inductive power transfer (BD-IPT) systems are gaining popularity as an efficient and reliable technique with single stage grid integration as opposed to two stage grid integration of conventional grid connected BD-IPT systems. However MCs are invariably rich in harmonics and thus affect both power quality and power factor on the grid side. This paper proposes a mathematical model through which the grid side harmonics of MC based BD-IPT systems can accurately be estimated. The validity of the proposed mathematical model is verified using simulated results of a 3 kW BD-IPT system and results suggest that the MC based BD-IPT systems have a better power factor with higher power quality over conventional grid connected rectifier based systems.

What are pregnant women told about models of maternity care in Australia? A retrospective study of women's reports

Objective To describe women’s reports of the model of care options General Practitioners (GPs) discussed with them at the first pregnancy consultation and women’s self-reported role in decisionmaking about model of care. Methods Women who had recently given birth responded to survey items about the models of care GPs discussed, their role in final decision-making, and socio-demographic, obstetric history, and early pregnancy characteristics. Results The proportion of women with whom each model of care was discussed varied between 8.2% (for private midwifery care with home birth) and 64.4% (GP shared care). Only 7.7% of women reported that all seven models were discussed. Exclusive discussion about private obstetric care and about all public models was common, and women’s health insurance status was the strongest predictor of the presence of discussions about each model. Most women (82.6%) reported active involvement in final decision-making about model of care. Conclusion Although most women report involvement in maternity model of care decisions, they remain largely uninformed about the breadth of available model of care options. Practical implications Strategies that facilitate women’s access to information on the differentiating features and outcomes for all models of care should be prioritized to better ensure equitable and quality decisions.

Application of a hybrid Entropy–McKinsey Matrix method in evaluating sustainable urbanization : a China case study

Although urbanization can promote social and economic development, it can also cause various problems. As the key decision makers of urbanization, local governments should be able to evaluate urbanization performance, summarize experiences, and find problems caused by urbanization. This paper introduces a hybrid Entropy–McKinsey Matrix method for evaluating sustainable urbanization. The McKinsey Matrix is commonly referred to as the GE Matrix. The values of a development index (DI) and coordination index (CI) are calculated by employing the Entropy method and are used as a basis for constructing a GE Matrix. The matrix can assist in assessing sustainable urbanization performance by locating the urbanization state point. A case study of the city of Jinan in China demonstrates the process of using the evaluation method. The case study reveals that the method is an effective tool in helping policy makers understand the performance of urban sustainability and therefore formulate suitable strategies for guiding urbanization toward better sustainability.

A matrix converter based Inductive Power Transfer system

Typical Inductive Power Transfer (IPT) systems employ two power conversion stages to generate a high frequency current from low frequency utility supply. This paper proposes a matrix converter based IPT system that facilitates the generation of high frequency current through a single power conversion stage. The proposed matrix converter topology transforms a 3-phase low frequency voltage system to a high frequency single phase voltage which in turn powers a series compensated IPT system. A comprehensive mathematical model is developed to investigate the behavior of the proposed IPT topology. Theoretical results are presented in comparison to simulations, which are performed in Matlab/ Simulink, to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed concept and the validity of the developed model.

A novel matrix converter based resonant dual active bridge for V2G applications

Dual-active bridges (DABs) can be used to deliver isolated and bidirectional power to electric vehicles (EVs) or to the grid in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications. However, such a system essentially requires a two-stage power conversion process, which significantly increases the power losses. Furthermore, the poor power factor associated with DAB converters further reduces the efficiency of such systems. This paper proposes a novel matrix converter based resonant DAB converter that requires only a single-stage power conversion process to facilitate isolated bi-directional power transfer between EVs and the grid. The proposed converter comprises a matrix converter based front end linked with an EV side full-bridge converter through a high frequency isolation transformer and a tuned LCL network. A mathematical model, which predicts the behavior of the proposed system, is presented to show that both the magnitude and direction of the power flow can be controlled through either relative phase angle or magnitude modulation of voltages produced by converters. Viability of the proposed concept is verified through simulations. The proposed matrix converter based DAB, with a single power conversion stage, is low in cost, and suites charging and discharging in single or multiple EVs or V2G applications.