Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Synthesis and characterization of titanium sol–gels in varied gravity

Two unique test systems were designed and built to allow the effects of varied gravity (high, normal, reduced) during synthesis of titanium sol–gels to be studied. A centrifuge capable of providing high gravity environments of up to 70 g for extended periods while applying a 100 mbar vacuum and a temperature of 40–50 °C to the reaction chambers was developed. The second system was used in the QUT Microgravity Drop Tower Facility also provided the same thermal and vacuum conditions used in the centrifuge, but was required to operate autonomously during free fall. Through the use of post synthesis instrumental characterization, it was found that increased gravity levels during synthesis, had the greatest effect on the final products. Samples produced in reduced and normal gravity appeared to form amorphous gels containing very small particles with moderate surface areas. Whereas crystalline anatase (TiO2), was found to form in samples synthesized above 5 g with significant increases in crystallinity, particle size and surface area observed when samples were produced at gravity levels up to 70 g. It is proposed that for samples produced in higher gravity, an increased concentration gradient of water is forms at the bottom of the reacting film due to forced convection. The particles formed in higher gravity diffuse downward toward this excess of water, which favors the condensation reaction of remaining sol–gel precursors with the particles promoting increased particle growth. Due to the removal of downward convection in reduced gravity, particle growth due to condensation reaction processes are physically hindered hydrolysis reactions favored instead. Another significant finding from this work was that anatase could be produced at relatively low temperatures of 40–50 °C instead of the conventional method of calcination above 450 °C solely through sol–gel synthesis at higher gravity levels.

Computation of ECG signal features using MCMC modelling in software and FPGA reconfigurable hardware

Computational optimisation of clinically important electrocardiogram signal features, within a single heart beat, using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is undertaken. A detailed, efficient data-driven software implementation of an MCMC algorithm has been shown. Initially software parallelisation is explored and has been shown that despite the large amount of model parameter inter-dependency that parallelisation is possible. Also, an initial reconfigurable hardware approach is explored for future applicability to real-time computation on a portable ECG device, under continuous extended use.

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

Modelling airport passenger group dynamics using an agent-based method

This thesis investigates the influence of passenger group dynamics on passengers' behaviour in an international airport. A simulation model is built to analyse passengers' behaviour during airport departure processes and during an emergency event. Results from the model showed that passengers' group dynamics have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of airport services. The agent-based model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of space design and service allocations, which may contribute to the enhancement of passenger airport experiences.

Segmental torso masses and joint torques produced by gravity in the adolescent scoliotic spine

Introduction Calculating segmental torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. Methods Low dose CT data was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and spinal joint torques for 20 female AIS patients (mean age 15.0 ± 2.7 years, mean Cobb angle 53 ± 7.1°). ImageJ software (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to threshold the T1 to L5 CT images and calculate the segmental torso volume and mass for each vertebral level. Masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published data. Intervertebral joint torques in the coronal and sagittal planes at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres (assumed to be at the centre of the intervertebral disc. The joint torque at each level was found by summing torque contributions for all segments above that joint. Results Segmental torso mass increased from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The coronal plane joint torques due to gravity were 5-7Nm at the apex of the curve; sagittal torques were 3-5.4Nm. Conclusion CT scans were in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be smaller than those in standing. Hence, this study has shown that gravity produces joint torques potentially of higher than 7Nm in the coronal plane and 5Nm in the sagittal plane during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients. The magnitude of these torques may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression and the mechanics of bracing. This new data on torso segmental mass in AIS patients will assist biomechanical models of scoliosis.

Aspects of Keno modelling

In two earlier papers, an intricate Jackpot structure and analysis of pseudo-random numbers for Keno in the Australian state of Queensland circa 2000 were described. Aspects of the work were also reported at an international conference . Since that time, many aspects of the game in Australia have changed. The present paper presents more up-to-date details of Keno throughout the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A much simpler jackpot structure is now in place and this is described. Two add-ons or side-bets to the game are detailed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player (ERTP) are presented in all cases.

Analysis and modelling of the hydraulic conductivity in aquitards : application to the Galilee Basin and the Great Artesian Basin, Australia

In large sedimentary basins with layers of different rocks, the groundwater flow between aquifers depends on the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the separating low-permeable rocks, or aquitards. Three methods were developed to evaluate K in aquitards for areas with limited field data: • Coherence and harmonic analysis: estimates the regional-scale K based on water-level fluctuations in adjacent aquifers. • Cokriging and Bayes' rule: infers K from downhole geophysical logs. • Fluvial process model: reproduces the lithology architecture of sediment formations which can be converted to K. These proposed methods enable good estimates of K and better planning of further drillholes.

Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

The subset sum problem in Keno modelling

Aspects of Keno modelling throughout the Australian states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are discussed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player are presented in each case.

Atmospheric microplasma-functionalized 3D microfluidic strips within dense carbon nanotube arrays confine Au nanodots for SERS sensing

An atmospheric microplasma jet produces three-dimensional (3D) microfluidic channels on dense arrays of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes, which confines Au nanodot aqueous solution. The resulting hybrid 3D nanostructure is exploited as an effective microscopic area-selective sensing platform based on surface-enhanced Raman scattering.

An exploration of the extent, use and success in the application of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the UK construction industry

Building Information Modelling (BIM) has been regarded as a one stop shop capable of addressing the ills of the construction industry. Yet, while some firms have accepted BIM as a new way to work and gone on to record success, others (which have not so done) have raised such questions as: ‘How is BIM defined? Is it a tool or a process? Which kinds and sizes of organisations stand to benefit from BIM?’ These questions form the basis of this research. Hence, having explored the relevant body of literature, this research investigates three organisations within the UK – described as the earliest adopters of BIM – and considers how they have fared in terms of project performance in the years since adopting BIM; focusing on project cost, delivery time and quality achievement. This investigation also probed two of the leading voices in BIM in the UK in search of the much needed answers. The findings of the research show that successful projects executed in the organisations that have used BIM is predicated on its adoption as a process, rather than as a tool of technology; a process that changes the way work in the construction industry is typically done. Moreover, the successes recorded in the firms researched give credence to project success consequent upon adopting BIM. Nevertheless, the findings of this research show that the cornerstone of this success is leadership-driven innovation.

Numerical modelling of an imping jet

Impinging flow occurs when a fluid impacts a comparatively solid boundary upon which divergence occurs. A perfect example of an impinging flow is the impact and divergence of air at ground level during a thunderstorm outflow. The importance of modelling thunderstorm outflows, and in particular the downburst is now well-known to the wind engineering community and research into many of its characteristics is underway throughout the world. The reader is directed to the text by Fujita [I] for an introduction to downburst concepts and theory.