A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Inside the ‘Hurt Locker’: The combined effects of explosive ordnance disposal and chemical protective clothing on physiological tolerance time in extreme environments

Background Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are often required to wear specialised clothing combinations that not only protect against the risk of explosion but also potential chemical contamination. This heavy (>35kg) and encapsulating ensemble is likely to increase physiological strain by increasing metabolic heat production and impairing heat dissipation. This study investigated the physiological tolerance times of two different chemical protective undergarments, commonly worn with EOD personal protective clothing, in a range of simulated environmental extremes and work intensities Methods Seven males performed eighteen trials wearing two ensembles. The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km.h-1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to volitional fatigue. Results Physiological tolerance times ranged from 8 to 60 min and the duration (mean difference: 2.78 min, P>0.05) were similar in both ensembles. A significant effect for environment (21>30>37°C WBGT, P<0.05) and work intensity (2.5>4>5.5 km.h-1, P< 0.05) was observed in tolerance time. The majority of trials across both ensembles (101/126; 80.1%) were terminated due to participants achieving a heart rate equivalent to greater than 90% of their maximum. Conclusions Physiological tolerance times wearing these two chemical protective undergarments, worn underneath EOD personal protective clothing, were similar and predominantly limited by cardiovascular strain.

Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

The effects of parental illness and other ill family members on youth caregiving experiences

Informed by a model of family role-redistribution derived from the Family Ecology Framework (Pedersen & Revenson, 2005), this study examined differences in two proposed psychological components of role-redistribution (youth caregiving experiences and responsibilities) between youth of a parent with illness and their peers from ‘healthy’ families controlling for the effects of whether a parent is ill or some other family member, illness type, and demographics. Based on self-report questionnaire data, four groups of Australian children were derived from a community sample of 2474youth (‘healthy’ family, n=1768; parental illness, n=336; other family member illness, n=254; both parental and other family member illness, n=116). The presence of any family member with a serious illness is associated with an intensification of youth caregiving experiences relative to peers from healthy families. This risk is elevated if the ill family member is a parent, if more illnesses are present, and by certain youth and family demographics, and especially by higher caregiving responsibilities. The presence of a family member, particularly a parent, with a serious medical condition has pervasive increased effects on youth caregiving compared to healthy families, and these effects are not fully accounted for by illness type, demographics or caregiving responsibilities.

Literacy, place, and pedagogies of possibility: Working against residualization effects and deficit discourses in poor school communities

Australia has a long history of policy attention to the education of poor and working-class youth (Connell, 1994), yet currently on standardized educational outcomes measures the gaps are widening in ways that relate to social background, including race, location and class. An economic analysis of school choice in Australia reveals that a high proportion of government school students now come from lower Socio-Economic Status (SES) backgrounds (Ryan & Watson, 2004), indicating a trend towards a gradual residualisation of the poor in government schools, with increased private school enrolments as a confirmed national trend. The spatial distribution of poverty and the effects on school populations are not unique to Australia (Lupton, 2003; Lipman, 2011; Ryan, 2010). Raffo and colleagues (2010) recently provided a synthesis of socially critical approaches towards schooling and poverty arguing that what is needed are shifts in the balances of power to reposition those within the educational system as having some say in the ways schooling is organized. ‘Disadvantaged’ primary schools are not a marginal concern for education systems, but now account for a large and growing number of schools that serve an ever increasing population being made redundant, in part-time precarious work, under-employed or unemployed (Thomson 2002; Smyth, Down et al 2010). In Australia, the notion of the ‘disadvantaged’ school now refers to those, mostly public schools, being residualised by a politics of parental choice that drives neoliberalising policy logic (Bonner & Caro 2007; Hattam & Comber, forthcoming 2014; Thomson & Reid, 2003)...

Rejected! The harmful effects of workgroup mistreatment and the moderating role of organisational norms

This program of research investigated the harmful effects of mistreatment by the workgroup, and the role of perceived rejection as a critical mediator linking mistreatment and outcomes. This research program had three primary purposes. First, the research aimed to examine the important role of workgroup mistreatment as an independent predictor of negative outcomes, over and above the influence of supervisor mistreatment. Second, the research aimed to examine the effect of perceived rejection as an explanatory variable linking workgroup mistreatment and outcomes. Finally, the moderating effect of organizational norms on the relationship between workgroup mistreatment and perceived rejection was examined. The relationships of interest were examined over four studies, using multiple methods of data collection, across part-time and full-time working samples. In Study 1 (Chapter 2), the independent role of workgroup mistreatment and the mediating role of perceived rejection were examined. One hundred and forty two part-time working participants took part in the study. The participants completed a questionnaire on workplace behaviors in their organizations. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed a strong harmful effect of workgroup mistreatment, independent of mistreatment by the supervisor. In addition, the results showed that perceived rejection fully mediated the relationship between workgroup mistreatment and depression and organizational based self esteem. The study highlighted that perceived rejection acts as a key underlying psychological mechanism involved in the effect of workgroup mistreatment. This study has been published in the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. Study 2 and Study 3 were presented as one paper in Chapter 3. The aims of these two studies was to explore the effects of workgroup mistreatment on a wider range of individual and organizational level outcomes, and to provide further evidence of the mediating role of perceived rejection as observed in Study 1. The results from both studies demonstrated that workgroup mistreatment had a significant and independent role in predicting negative individual and organizational level outcomes, providing support for the findings of Study 1. In the first study, 189 participants received scenarios manipulating workgroup mistreatment and supervisor mistreatment. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed that workgroup mistreatment harmfully affected participants, over and above that of the supervisor. The results also demonstrated that perceived rejection mediated the positive relationships between workgroup mistreatment and depression and organizational deviance, and also the negative relationships between workgroup mistreatment and organizational based self esteem and organizational citizenship behaviors. The second study included an additional aim, to examine the moderating role of supportive organizational norms. Two hundred and twenty nine participants read scenarios that manipulated workgroup mistreatment, supervisor mistreatment and organizational norms. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed the significant harmful effects of workgroup mistreatment, over and above the influence of supervisor mistreatment. The results also revealed the mediating role of perceived rejection. The direct effect of positive organizational norms also emerged, consistent with previous research. In addition, the result revealed that employees who experienced supportive organizational norms were more likely to reconcile with their workgroup members after experiencing mistreatment compared to employees who experienced hostile organizational norms. Finally, an unexpected pattern on the key affective variables of depression and organizational based self esteem emerged, such that mistreatment led to more negative outcomes in the supportive norms condition than in the hostile condition, where employees appeared to be desensitized. This paper is currently under review at the Journal of Applied Social Psychology. In Study 4 (Chapter 4), the overall model of workplace mistreatment was tested on a sample of full-time workers in an applied setting. One hundred and seventy two adults took part in the study. Participants were required to evaluate their workplace regarding mistreatment and organizational norms and to report their own psychological, behavioral and organizational outcomes. The results revealed that workgroup mistreatment was associated with increased depression, stress and avoidance, over and above supervisor mistreatment. In addition, the results revealed that perceived rejection acted as an explanatory variable linking workgroup mistreatment to a number of outcomes. Furthermore, the moderating role of hostile organizational norms emerged on depression, stress, reconciliation and avoidance. This paper is currently under review at the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. Overall, the four studies provided empirical support for the majority of the hypotheses. The effects were demonstrated for a range of psychological, behavioral, and organizational level outcomes, using multiple methods of data collection, across part-time and full-time workers. At the conclusion of the thesis (Chapter 5), an overall summary is provided of the findings across all four studies, practical and theoretical implications and research directions.

Spectroscopic characterization and solubility investigation on the effects of As(V) on mineral structure tooeleite (Fe6(AsO3)4SO4(OH)4·H2O)

Tooeleite is an unique ferric arsenite sulfate mineral, which has the potential significance of directly fixing As(III) as mineral trap. The tooeleite and various precipitates were hydrothermally synthesized under the different of initial As(III)/As(V) molar ratios and characterized by XRD, FTIR, XPS and SEM. The crystallinity of tooeleite decreases with the amount of As(V). The precipitate is free of any crystalline tooeleite at the level of that XRD could detect when the ratio of As(III)/As(V) of 7:3 and more. The characteristic bands of tooeleite are observed in 772, 340, 696 and 304 cm−1, which are assigned to the ν1, ν2, ν3 and ν4 vibrations of AsO33−. These intensities of bands gradually decreases with the presence of As(V) and its increasing. An obviously wide band is observed in 830 cm−1, which is the ν1 vibration of AsO4. The result of XPS reveals that the binding energies of As3d increase from 44.0 eV to 45.5 eV, which indicates that the amount of As(V) in the precipitates increases. The concentrations of arsenic released of these precipitates are 350–650 mg/L. The stability of tooeleite decreases by comparison when the presence of coexisting As(V) ions.

Investigation of the effects of the fatty acid profile on fuel properties using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

The structural features of fatty acids in biodiesel, including degree of unsaturation, percentage of saturated fatty acids and average chain length, influence important fuel properties such as cetane number, iodine value, density, kinematic viscosity, higher heating value and oxidation stability. The composition of fatty acid esters within the fuel should therefore be in the correct ratio to ensure fuel properties are within international biodiesel standards such as ASTM 6751 or EN 14214. This study scrutinises the influence of fatty acid composition and individual fatty acids on fuel properties. Fuel properties were estimated based on published equations, and measured according to standard procedure ASTM D6751 and EN 14214 to confirm the influences of the fatty acid profile. Based on fatty acid profile-derived calculations, the cetane number of the microalgal biodiesel was estimated to be 11.6, but measured 46.5, which emphasises the uncertainty of the method used for cetane number calculation. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), PROMETHEE-GAIA, was used to determine the influence of individual fatty acids on fuel properties in the GAIA plane. Polyunsaturated fatty acids increased the iodine value and had a negative influence on cetane number. Kinematic viscosity was negatively influenced by some long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids such as C20:5 and C22:6 and some of the more common saturated fatty acids C14:0 and C18:0. The positive impact of average chain length on higher heating value was also confirmed in the GAIA plane

Prospective ten-month exercise intervention in premenarcheal girls: Positive effects on bone and lean mass

Enhancement of bone mineral acquisition during growth may be a useful preventive strategy against osteoporosis. The aim of this study was to explore the lean mass, strength, and bone mineral response to a 10-month, high-impact, strength-building exercise program in 71 premenarcheal girls, aged 9–10 years. Lean body mass, total body (TB), lumbar spine (LS), proximal femur (PF), and femoral neck (FN) bone mineral were measured using the Hologic QDR 2000+ bone densitometer. Strength was assessed using a grip dynamometer and the Cybex isokinetic dynamometer (Cybex II). At baseline, no significant difference in body composition, pubertal development, calcium intake, physical activity, strength, or bone mineral existed between groups. At completion, there were again no differences in height, total body mass, pubertal development, calcium intake, or external physical activity. In contrast, the exercise group gained significantly more lean mass, less body fat content, greater shoulder, knee and grip strength, and greater TB, LS, PF, and FN BMD (exercise: TB 3.5%, LS 4.8%, PF 4.5%, and FN 12.0%) compared with the controls (controls: TB 1.2%, LS 1.2%, PF 1.3%, and FN 1.7%). TB bone mineral content (BMC), LS BMC, PF BMC, FN BMC, LS bone mineral apparent density (BMAD), and FN bone area also increased at a significantly greater rate in the exercise group compared with the controls. In multiple regression analysis, change in lean mass was the primary determinant of TB, FN, PF, and LS BMD accrual. Although a large proportion of bone mineral accrual in the premenarcheal skeleton was related to growth, an osteogenic effect was associated with exercise. These results suggest that high-impact, strength building exercise is beneficial for premenarcheal strength, lean mass gains, and bone mineral acquisition.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Assessment of temperature effects on childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea

This thesis has identified the high risk areas of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland and quantified the effects of temperature on emergency department visits for childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea. It adds to the increasing evidence about the impacts of climate variability and change on children's health and may have significant implications for developing climate change adaptation strategies and paediatric care policies.

Effects of anticoagulants on outcome of femoral neck fracture surgery

PURPOSE To review records of 330 patients who underwent surgery for femoral neck fractures with or without preoperative anticoagulation therapy. METHODS Medical records of 235 women and 95 men aged 48 to 103 years (mean, 81.6; standard deviation [SD], 13.1) who underwent surgery for femoral neck fractures with or without preoperative anticoagulation therapy were reviewed. 30 patients were on warfarin, 105 on aspirin, 28 on clopidogrel, and 167 were controls. The latter 3 groups were combined as the non-warfarin group and compared with the warfarin group. Hospital mortality, time from admission to surgery, length of hospital stay, return to theatre, and postoperative complications (wound infection, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism) were assessed. RESULTS The warfarin and control groups were significantly younger than the clopidogrel and aspirin groups (80.8 vs. 80.0 vs. 84.2 vs. 83.7 years, respectively, p<0.05). 81% of the patients underwent surgery within 48 hours of admission. The overall mean time from admission to surgery was 1.8 days; it was longer in the warfarin than the aspirin, clopidogrel, and control groups (3.3 vs. 1.8 vs. 1.6 vs. 1.6 days, respectively, p<0.001). The mean length of hospital stay was 17.5 (SD, 9.6; range, 3-54) days. The overall hospital mortality was 3.9%; it was 6.7% in the warfarin group, 3.8% in the aspirin group, 3.6% in the clopidogrel group, and 3.6% in the control group (p=0.80). Four patients returned to theatre for surgery: one in the warfarin group for washout of a haematoma, 2 in the aspirin group for repositioning of a mal-fixation and for debridement of wound infection, and one in the control group for debridement of wound infection. The warfarin group did not differ significantly from non-warfarin group in terms of postoperative complication rate (6.7% vs. 2.7%, p=0.228) and the rate of return to theatre (3.3% vs. 1%, p=0.318). CONCLUSION It is safe to continue aspirin and clopidogrel prior to surgical treatment for femoral neck fracture. The risk of delaying surgery outweighs the peri-operative bleeding risk.

Effective communication during disasters: What effects community decision making & action?

Study/Objective This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. Background In recent years, media reports have consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under stress. This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency instruction. Methods To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for compliance improvement. Results Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. Conclusion The research described here will contribute improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and multiple channels of communication including social media.

Appendix 8: Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on catch rates in South-East fisheries: 1986-2006

The collection of basic environmental data by industry members was successful and offers a way of overcoming the problems associated with differences in scale between the environment and fisheries datasets. A simple method of collecting environmental data was developed that was only a small time burden on skippers, yet has the potential to provide very useful information on the same scale as the catch and effort data recorded in the logbooks. The success of this trial was aided by the natural interest of fishers to learn more about the environment in which they fish. The archival temperature-depth tags chosen proved robust, reliable and easy to use. While the use of large scale environmental data may not yield significant improvements in stock assessments for most SESSF species, fine-scale data collected from selected vessels using methods developed during this project may, in the longer term, be useful for incorporation into CPUE standardisations in the future...