622 resultados para Time-trends


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This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.

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At the time of its official opening on 15 July 2011, The University of Queensland 1.22 MW array was the largest flat-panel PhotoVoltaic (PV) array in Australia. This PV array consists of over 5000 Trina Solar 240 Wp polycrystalline silicon PV modules installed across four rooftops at the St Lucia campus. Grid connection was achieved with 85 12.5 kW three phase and four 5 kW single phase grid connect inverters manufactured by Power-One. The site also includes one 8.4 kWp SolFocus concentrating solar 2 axis tracking PV array. Site wide monitoring and data logging of all DC, AC and environmental quantities will allow this array to be a rich source of research data. The site will also include a 200 kW 400 kWh zinc bromine energy storage system by Redflow, and associated power quality metering and monitoring. This paper presents highlights of the project feasibility study which included a site survey, shading analysis, and technology and triple bottom line assessment. A detailed description of the final technical implementation including discussion of alterative options considered is given. Finally, example initial data showing yield, trends and early example experimental results are presented.

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Research background For almost 80 years the Chuck Taylor (or Chuck T's) All Star basketball shoe has been an iconic item of fashion apparel. The Chuck T's were first designed in 1921 by Converse, an American shoe company and over the decades they became a popular item not purely for sports and athletic purposes but rather evolved into the shoe of choice for many subcultural groups as a fashion item. In some circles the Chuck Taylor is still seen as the "coolest" sneaker of all time - one which will never go out of fashion regardless of changing trends. With over 600 millions pairs sold all over the world since its release, the Converse shoe is representative of not only a fashion culture - but also of a consumption culture - that evolved as the driving force behind the massive growth of the Western economic system during the 20th Century. Artisan Gallery (Brisbane), in conjunction with the exhibition Reboot: Function, Fashion and the Sneaker, a history of the sneaker, selected 20 designers to customise and re-design the classic Converse Chuck Taylor All Stars shoe and in doing so highlighted the diversity of forms possible for creative outcomes. As Artisan Gallery Curator Kirsten Fitzpatrick states “We were expecting people to draw and paint on them. Instead, we had shoes... mounted as trophies.." referring to the presentation of "Converse Consumption". The exhibition ran from 21 June – 16 August 2012: Research question The Chuck T’s is one of many overwhelmingly commercially successful designs of the last century. Nowadays we are faced with the significant problems of overconsumption and the stress this causes on the natural ecosystem; and on people as a result. As an active member of the industrial design fraternity – a discipline that sits at the core of this problem - how can I use this opportunity to comment on the significant issue of consumption? An effective way to do this was to associate consumption of goods with consumption of sugar. There are significant similarities between our ceaseless desires to consume products and our fervent need to consume indulgent sweet foods. Artisan Statement Delicious, scrumptious, delectable... your pupils dilate, your blood pressure spikes, your liver goes into overdrive. Immediately, your brain cuts off the adenosine receptors, preventing drowsiness. Your body increases dopamine production, in-turn stimulating the pleasure receptors in your brain. Your body absorbs all the sweetness and turns it into fat – while all the nutrients that you actually require are starting to be destroyed, about to be expelled. And this is only after one bite! After some time though, your body comes crashing back to earth. You become irritable and begin to feel sluggish. Your eyelids seem heavy while your breathing pattern changes. Your body has consumed all the energy and destroyed all available nutrients. You literally begin to shut down. These are the physiological effects of sugar consumption. A perfect analogy for our modern day consumer driven world. Enjoy your dessert! Research contribution “Converse Consumption” contributes to the conversation regarding over-consumption by compelling people to reflect on their consumption behaviour through the reconceptualising of the deconstructed Chuck T’s in an attractive edible form. By doing so the viewer has to deal with the desire to consume the indulgent looking dessert with the contradictory fact that it is comprised of a pair of shoes. The fact that the shoes are Chuck T’s make the effect even more powerful due to their iconic status. These clashing motivations are what make “Converse Consumption” a bizarre yet memorable experience. Significance The exhibition was viewed by an excess of 1000 people and generated exceptional media coverage and public exposure/impact. As Artisan Gallery Curator Kirsten Fitzpatrick states “20 of Brisbane's best designers were given the opportunity to customise their own Converse Sneakers, with The Converse Blank Canvas Project.” And to be selected in this category demonstrates the calibre of importance for design prominence.

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The Queensland Court of Appeal recently handed down its decision in Caprice Property Holdings Pty Ltd v McLeay [2013] QCA 120. The decision considers the operation of the standard REIQ contract for the sale of land as it impacts on the time for settlement and the respective obligations of the buyer and the seller. The decision highlights both practical and legal issues arising from a failure to render performance at the stipulated time...

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Currently, finite element analyses are usually done by means of commercial software tools. Accuracy of analysis and computational time are two important factors in efficiency of these tools. This paper studies the effective parameters in computational time and accuracy of finite element analyses performed by ANSYS and provides the guidelines for the users of this software whenever they us this software for study on deformation of orthopedic bone plates or study on similar cases. It is not a fundamental scientific study and only shares the findings of the authors about structural analysis by means of ANSYS workbench. It gives an idea to the readers about improving the performance of the software and avoiding the traps. The solutions provided in this paper are not the only possible solutions of the problems and in similar cases there are other solutions which are not given in this paper. The parameters of solution method, material model, geometric model, mesh configuration, number of the analysis steps, program controlled parameters and computer settings are discussed through thoroughly in this paper.

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Introduction Road safety researchers rely heavily on self-report data to explore the aetiology of crash risk. However, researchers consistently acknowledge a range of limitations associated with this methodological approach (e.g., self-report bias), which has been hypothesised to reduce the predictive efficacy of scales. Although well researched in other areas, one important factor often neglected in road safety studies is the fallibility of human memory. Given accurate recall is a key assumption in many studies, the validity and consistency of self-report data warrants investigation. The aim of the current study was to examine the consistency of self-report data of crash history and details of the most recent reported crash on two separate occasions. Materials & Method A repeated measures design was utilised to examine the self-reported crash involvement history of 214 general motorists over a two month period. Results A number of interesting discrepancies were noted in relation to number of lifetime crashes reported by the participants and the descriptions of their most recent crash across the two occasions. Of the 214 participants who reported having been involved in a crash, 35 (22.3%) reported a lower number of lifetime crashes as Time 2, than at Time 1. Of the 88 drivers who reported no change in number of lifetime crashes, 10 (11.4%) described a different most recent crash. Additionally, of the 34 reporting an increase in the number of lifetime crashes, 29 (85.3%) of these described the same crash on both occasions. Assessed as a whole, at least 47.1% of participants made a confirmed mistake at Time 1 or Time 2. Conclusions These results raise some doubt in regard to the accuracy of memory recall across time. Given that self-reported crash involvement is the predominant dependent variable used in the majority of road safety research, this issue warrants further investigation. Replication of the study with a larger sample size that includes multiple recall periods would enhance understanding into the significance of this issue for road safety methodology.

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The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.