A process mining-based investigation of adverse events in care processes

This paper proposes the Clinical Pathway Analysis Method (CPAM) approach that enables the extraction of valuable organisational and medical information on past clinical pathway executions from the event logs of healthcare information systems. The method deals with the complexity of real-world clinical pathways by introducing a perspective-based segmentation of the date-stamped event log. CPAM enables the clinical pathway analyst to effectively and efficiently acquire a profound insight into the clinical pathways. By comparing the specific medical conditions of patients with the factors used for characterising the different clinical pathway variants, the medical expert can identify the best therapeutic option. Process mining-based analytics enables the acquisition of valuable insights into clinical pathways, based on the complete audit traces of previous clinical pathway instances. Additionally, the methodology is suited to assess guideline compliance and analyse adverse events. Finally, the methodology provides support for eliciting tacit knowledge and providing treatment selection assistance.

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Investigation of the mechanical behavior of kangaroo humeral head cartilage tissue by a porohyperelastic model based on the strain-rate-dependent permeability

Solid–interstitial fluid interaction, which depends on tissue permeability, is significant to the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of humeral head (shoulder) cartilage. Due to anatomical and biomechanical similarities to that of the human shoulder, kangaroos present a suitable animal model. Therefore, indentation experiments were conducted on kangaroo shoulder cartilage tissues from low (10−4/s) to moderately high (10−2/s) strain-rates. A porohyperelastic model was developed based on the experimental characterization; and a permeability function that takes into account the effect of strain-rate on permeability (strain-rate-dependent permeability) was introduced into the model to investigate the effect of rate-dependent fluid flow on tissue response. The prediction of the model with the strain-rate-dependent permeability was compared with those of the models using constant permeability and strain-dependent permeability. Compared to the model with constant permeability, the models with strain-dependent and strain-rate-dependent permeability were able to better capture the experimental variation at all strain-rates (p<0.05). Significant differences were not identified between models with strain-dependent and strain-rate-dependent permeability at strain-rate of 5×10−3/s (p=0.179). However, at strain-rate of 10−2/s, the model with strain-rate-dependent permeability was significantly better at capturing the experimental results (p<0.005). The findings thus revealed the significance of rate-dependent fluid flow on tissue behavior at large strain-rates, which provides insights into the mechanical deformation mechanisms of cartilage tissues.

Transformation of public space in contemporary urban neighbourhoods of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: An investigation of changing provision, use and meaning

This research examined the transformation of public space in contemporary urban neighbourhoods of the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal. The development of neighbourhood public space remains a considerable challenge in the present changing context, with significant consequences for public life and social interaction. The findings will aid policy makers, urban planners and designers in addressing the adverse effects of the current urban growth and change, and in winning back public space for the well-being of the local community.

Consensus statement on the investigation and management of non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA)

Aim Non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA) is axial inflammatory arthritis where plain radiographic damage is not evident. An unknown proportion of these patients will progress to ankylosing spondylitis (AS). The increasing recognition of nr-axSpA has been greatly assisted by the widespread use of magnetic resonance imaging. The aim of this article was to construct a set of consensus statements based on a literature review to guide investigation and promote best management of nr-axSpA. Methods A literature review using Medline was conducted covering the major investigation modalities and treatment options available. A group of rheumatologists and a radiologist with expertise in investigation and management of SpA reviewed the literature and formulated a set of consensus statements. The Grade system encompassing the level of evidence and strength of recommendation was used. The opinion of a patient with nr-axSpA and a nurse experienced in the care of SpA patients was also sought and included. Results The literature review found few studies specifically addressing nr-axSpA, or if these patients were included, their results were often not separately reported. Fourteen consensus statements covering investigation and management of nr-axSpA were formulated. The level of agreement was high and ranged from 8.1 to 9.8. Treatment recommendations vary little with established AS, but this is primarily due to the lack of available evidence on the specific treatment of nr-axSpA. Conclusion The consensus statements aim to improve the diagnosis and management of nr-axSpA. We aim to raise awareness of this condition by the public and doctors and promote appropriate investigation and management.

High-resolution SNP microarray investigation of copy number variations on chromosome 18 in a control cohort

Copy number variations (CNVs) as described in the healthy population are purported to contribute significantly to genetic heterogeneity. Recent studies have described CNVs using lymphoblastoid cell lines or by application of specifically developed algorithms to interrogate previously described data. However, the full extent of CNVs remains unclear. Using high-density SNP array, we have undertaken a comprehensive investigation of chromosome 18 for CNV discovery and characterisation of distribution and association with chromosome architecture. We identified 399 CNVs, of which loss represents 98%, 58% are less than 2.5 kb in size and 71% are intergenic. Intronic deletions account for the majority of copy number changes with gene involvement. Furthermore, one-third of CNVs do not have putative breakpoints within repetitive sequences. We conclude that replicative processes, mediated either by repetitive elements or microhomology, account for the majority of CNVs in the healthy population. Genomic instability involving the formation of a non-B structure is demonstrated in one region.

Finite element analysis investigation of response of pumpkin tissue under uniaxial loading

Finite element analysis (FEA) models of uniaxial loading of pumpkin peel and flesh tissues were developed and validated using experimental results. The tensile model was developed for both linear elastic and plastic material models, the compression model was develop d only with the plastic material model. The outcomes of force versus time curves obtained from FEA models followed similar pattern to the experimental curves however the curve resulted with linear elastic material properties had a higher difference with the experimental curves. The values of predicted forces were determined and compared with the experimental curve. An error indicator was introduced and computed for each case and compared. Additionally Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values were also calculated for each model and compared. The results of modelling were used to develop material model for peel and flesh tissues in FEA modelling of mechanical peeling of tough skinned vegetables.

Investigation of the role of ENPP1 and TNAP genes in chondrocalcinosis

Objectives. Extracellular inorganic pyrophosphate (ePPi) inhibits certain forms of pathological mineralization while promoting others. Three molecules involved in ePPi regulation are important candidates for the development of calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate chondrocalcinosis (CPPD CC). These include ANKH, ectonucleotide pyrophosphatase (ENPP1) and TNAP. We have previously showed that genetic variation in ANKH is a cause of autosomal dominant familial CC and also some sporadic cases of CPPD CC. We now investigate the possible role of ENPP1 and TNAP in CPPD CC. Methods. Exons, untranslated regions (UTR) and exon-intron boundaries of ENPP1 and TNAP were sequenced using ABI Big Dye chemistry on automated sequencers. Sixteen variants were identified (3 in ENPP1 and 13 in TNAP) and were subsequently genotyped in 128 sporadic Caucasian CPPD CC patients and 600 healthy controls using a combination of polymerase chain reaction/restriction fragment-length polymorphism analysis or using Taqman. Allele and genotype frequencies were compared between cases and controls using the χ 2 test. Linkage disequilibrium, haplotype and the single nucleotide polymorphism-specific analyses were also performed. This study had 80% power to detect an odds ratio of 2.2 or more at these loci. Results. No difference was observed in the allele or genotype frequencies between patients and controls at either ENPP1 or TNAP. Conclusions. Polymorphisms of ENPP1 and TNAP are not major determinants of susceptibility to CC in the population studied. Further studies of the aetiology of sporadic CPPD CC are required to determine its causes.

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.

Director independence or decision bias? An investigation of alternative sources of agency costs in board decision making

Research into boards traditionally focuses on independent monitoring of management, with studies focused on the effect of board independence on firm performance. This thesis aims to broaden the research tradition by consolidating prior research and investigating how agents may circumvent independent monitoring. Meta-analysis of previous board independence-firm performance studies indicated no systematic relationship between board independence and firm performance. Next, a series of experiments demonstrated that the presentation of recommendations to directors may bias decision making irrespective of other information presented and the independence of the decision maker. Together, results suggest that independence may be less important than the agent's motivation to misdirect the monitoring process.

An investigation into drink driving among aboriginal and Torres strait islander peoples in regional and remote Queensland and the development of the 'Hero to Healing' program

This program of research investigated the factors facilitating drink driving in Indigenous communities in Far North Queensland. Drink driving-related road crashes are a significant health burden for Indigenous people, as they die in road crashes at three times the rate of other Australians and are 30% more likely to be seriously injured. This research provided information to develop and pilot a culturally-specific program, 'Hero to Healing'. The main motivation to drink drive was related to 'kinship pressure; where drivers were pressured by family members to drive after drinking. The underlying responsibility for transporting family members was related to cultural values and involved responding to family needs as a priority. Exposure to older family members drink driving was considered to play a role in normalising the behaviour, leading to imitation into adulthood. The research highlighted the need to treat drink driving as a community issue, rather than an individual phenomenon.

In situ investigation of explosive crystallization in a-Ge: Experimental determination of the interface response function using dynamic transmission electron microscopy

The crystallization of amorphous semiconductors is a strongly exothermic process. Once initiated the release of latent heat can be sufficient to drive a self-sustaining crystallization front through the material in a manner that has been described as explosive. Here, we perform a quantitative in situ study of explosive crystallization in amorphous germanium using dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Direct observations of the speed of the explosive crystallization front as it evolves along a laser-imprinted temperature gradient are used to experimentally determine the complete interface response function (i.e., the temperature-dependent front propagation speed) for this process, which reaches a peak of 16 m/s. Fitting to the Frenkel-Wilson kinetic law demonstrates that the diffusivity of the material locally/immediately in advance of the explosive crystallization front is inconsistent with those of a liquid phase. This result suggests a modification to the liquid-mediated mechanism commonly used to describe this process that replaces the phase change at the leading amorphous-liquid interface with a change in bonding character (from covalent to metallic) occurring in the hot amorphous material.

Investigation of the effect of balconies on natural ventilation of dwellings in high-rise residential buildings in subtropical climate

Balconies, as one of the main architectural features in subtropical climates, are assumed to enhance the ventilation performance of buildings by redirecting the wind. Although there are some studies on the effect of balconies on natural ventilation inside buildings, the majority have been conducted on single zone buildings with simple geometries. The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of balconies on the internal air flow pattern and ventilation performance of multi-storey residential buildings with internal partitions. To this end, a sample residential unit was selected for investigation and three different conditions tested, base case (no balcony), an open balcony and a semi-enclosed balcony. Computational Fluid Dynamics is used as an analysis method due to its accuracy and ability to provide detailed results. The cases are analysed in terms of average velocity, flow uniformity and number of Air Changes per Hour (ACH). The results suggest the introduction of a semi-enclosed balcony into high-rise dwellings improves the average velocity and flow uniformity. Integrating an open balcony results in reduction of the aforementioned parameters at 0° wind incidence.

Predictors of mental health in midlife and older Australian women: A multilevel investigation

The purpose of this article is to examine the factors associated with women's mental health. A random sample of 340 Australian women aged 40–55 completed surveys on menopausal and lifestyle factors and mental health at three time points. We used hierarchical models to show that decrements in mental health were associated with a corresponding increase in some midlife symptoms (p < .01), time (p < .01), and poor physical health (p < .01), but the effect was not permanent. In older women, mental health was associated with physical functioning, climacteric symptoms, and time, while individual variations in mental health score were largely explained by lifestyle factors.