Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Application of a theoretical framework to foster a cardiac-diabetes self-management programme

AIM: This paper analyses and illustrates the application of Bandura's self-efficacy construct to an innovative self-management programme for patients with both type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease. BACKGROUND: Using theory as a framework for any health intervention provides a solid and valid foundation for aspects of planning and delivering such an intervention; however, it is reported that many health behaviour intervention programmes are not based upon theory and are consequently limited in their applicability to different populations. The cardiac-diabetes self-management programme has been specifically developed for patients with dual conditions with the strategies for delivering the programme based upon Bandura's self-efficacy theory. This patient group is at greater risk of negative health outcomes than that with a single chronic condition and therefore requires appropriate intervention programmes with solid theoretical foundations that can address the complexity of care required. SOURCES OF EVIDENCE: The cardiac-diabetes self-management programme has been developed incorporating theory, evidence and practical strategies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides explicit knowledge of the theoretical basis and components of a cardiac-diabetes self-management programme. Such detail enhances the ability to replicate or adopt the intervention in similar or differing populations and/or cultural contexts as it provides in-depth understanding of each element within the intervention. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of the concepts alone is not sufficient to deliver a successful health programme. Supporting patients to master skills of self-care is essential in order for patients to successfully manage two complex, chronic illnesses. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE OR HEALTH POLICY: Valuable information has been provided to close the theory-practice gap for more consistent health outcomes, engaging with patients for promoting holistic care within organizational and cultural contexts.

Do not-for-profits need their own conceptual framework?

This paper raises the issue of whether not-for-profit (NFP) organisations require a conceptual framework that acknowledges their mission imperative and enables them to discharge their broader accountability. Relying on publicly available documentation and literature, it suggests that current conceptaul Frameworks for the for-profit and public sectors are inadequate in meeting the accountability needs of broader NFP-specific accountability and the formulation of NFP-appropriate reporting practice, including the provision of financial and non-financial reporting. The paper thus theoretically challenges existing financial reporting arrangements and investes debate on their future direction.

Stepping outside the circle : a reflective practice framework for creative facilitators

Stepping Outside the Circle was a practice-based research project focussed on creating a professional reflection framework for creative facilitators working within the community, education, corporate and health and wellbeing sectors. Underpinned by theories of critical reflection, transformative learning, reflexivity and agency, this study explored the potential benefits of multimodal inquiry processes, adapting existing reflective practice models for the unique requirements of creative facilitation contexts. Through application of the key findings from this research, synthesised in a practitioner resource, it is hoped that individual practitioners and creative organisations may develop their understanding of evaluation strategies, self- reflexivity, professional sustainability and practitioner self-care.

The security and privacy of usage policies and provenance logs in an Information Accountability Framework

The potential benefits of shared eHealth records systems are promising for the future of improved healthcare. However, the uptake of such systems is hindered by concerns over the security and privacy of patient information. The use of Information Accountability and so called Accountable-eHealth (AeH) systems has been proposed to balance the privacy concerns of patients with the information needs of healthcare professionals. However, a number of challenges remain before AeH systems can become a reality. Among these is the need to protect the information stored in the usage policies and provenance logs used by AeH systems to define appropriate use of information and hold users accountable for their actions. In this paper, we discuss the privacy and security issues surrounding these accountability mechanisms, define valid access to the information they contain, discuss solutions to protect them, and verify and model an implementation of the access requirements as part of an Information Accountability Framework.

Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of the integrated report card for the Great Barrier Reef catchments

This report presents the final deliverable from the project titled Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of an integrated report card’ funded by the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF; Project 3.7.7). The key management driver of this, and a number of other MTSRF projects concerned with indicator development, is the requirement for state and federal government authorities and other stakeholders to provide robust assessments of the present ‘state’ or ‘health’ of regional ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments and adjacent marine waters. An integrated report card format, that encompasses both biophysical and socioeconomic factors, is an appropriate framework through which to deliver these assessments and meet a variety of reporting requirements. It is now well recognised that a ‘report card’ format for environmental reporting is very effective for community and stakeholder communication and engagement, and can be a key driver in galvanising community and political commitment and action. Although a report card it needs to be understandable by all levels of the community, it also needs to be underpinned by sound, quality-assured science. In this regard this project was to develop approaches to address the statistical issues that arise from amalgamation or integration of sets of discrete indicators into a final score or assessment of the state of the system. In brief, the two main issues are (1) selecting, measuring and interpreting specific indicators that vary both in space and time, and (2) integrating a range of indicators in such a way as to provide a succinct but robust overview of the state of the system. Although there is considerable research and knowledge of the use of indicators to inform the management of ecological, social and economic systems, methods on how to best to integrate multiple disparate indicators remain poorly developed. Therefore the objective of this project was to (i) focus on statistical approaches aimed at ensuring that estimates of individual indicators are as robust as possible, and (ii) present methods that can be used to report on the overall state of the system by integrating estimates of individual indicators. It was agreed at the outset, that this project was to focus on developing methods for a water quality report card. This was driven largely by the requirements of Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (RWQPP) and led to strong partner engagement with the Reef Water Quality Partnership.

Design for creative activity : a framework for analyzing the creative potential of computer games

This paper describes a design framework intended to conceptually map the influence that game design has on the creative activity people engage in during gameplay. The framework builds on behavioral and verbal analysis of people playing puzzle games. The analysis was designed to better understand the extent to which gameplay activities within different games facilitate creative problem solving. We have used an expert review process to evaluate these games in terms of their game design elements and have taken a cognitive action approach to this process to investigate how particular elements produce the potential for creative activity. This paper proposes guidelines that build upon our understanding of the relationship between the creative processes that players undertake during a game and the components of the game that allow these processes to occur. These guidelines may be used in the game design process to better facilitate creative gameplay activity.

A distributed computing framework for all-to-all comparison problems

Distributed computation and storage have been widely used for processing of big data sets. For many big data problems, with the size of data growing rapidly, the distribution of computing tasks and related data can affect the performance of the computing system greatly. In this paper, a distributed computing framework is presented for high performance computing of All-to-All Comparison Problems. A data distribution strategy is embedded in the framework for reduced storage space and balanced computing load. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed approach. They have shown that about 88% of the ideal performance capacity have be achieved in multiple machines through using the approach presented in this paper.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making