Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

The complete genome sequence of Escherichia coli EC958: a high quality reference sequence for the globally disseminated multidrug resistant E. coli O25b:H4-ST131 clone

Escherichia coli ST131 is now recognised as a leading contributor to urinary tract and bloodstream infections in both community and clinical settings. Here we present the complete, annotated genome of E. coli EC958, which was isolated from the urine of a patient presenting with a urinary tract infection in the Northwest region of England and represents the most well characterised ST131 strain. Sequencing was carried out using the Pacific Biosciences platform, which provided sufficient depth and read-length to produce a complete genome without the need for other technologies. The discovery of spurious contigs within the assembly that correspond to site-specific inversions in the tail fibre regions of prophages demonstrates the potential for this technology to reveal dynamic evolutionary mechanisms. E. coli EC958 belongs to the major subgroup of ST131 strains that produce the CTX-M-15 extended spectrum β-lactamase, are fluoroquinolone resistant and encode the fimH30 type 1 fimbrial adhesin. This subgroup includes the Indian strain NA114 and the North American strain JJ1886. A comparison of the genomes of EC958, JJ1886 and NA114 revealed that differences in the arrangement of genomic islands, prophages and other repetitive elements in the NA114 genome are not biologically relevant and are due to misassembly. The availability of a high quality uropathogenic E. coli ST131 genome provides a reference for understanding this multidrug resistant pathogen and will facilitate novel functional, comparative and clinical studies of the E. coli ST131 clonal lineage.

Influence of polymorphisms of GSTM1 and GSTT1 for risk of renal cell cancer in workers with long-term high occupational exposure to trichloroethene

Suspected nephrocarcinogenic effects of trichloroethene (TRI) in humans are attributed to metabolites derived from the glutathione transferase (GST) pathway. The influence of polymorphisms of GSTM1 and GSTT1 isoenzymes on the risk of renal cell cancer in subjects having been exposed to high levels of TRI over many years was investigated. GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes were determined by internal standard controlled polymerase chain reaction. Fourty-five cases with histologically verified renal cell cancer and a history of long-term occupational exposure to high concentrations of TRI were studied. A reference group consisted of 48 workers from the same geographical region with similar histories of occupational exposures to TRI but not suffering from any cancer. Among the 45 renal cell cancer patients, 27 carried at least one functional GSTM1 (GSTM1 +) and 18 at least one functional GSTT1 (GSTT1 +). Among the 48 reference workers, 17 were GSTM1 + and 31 were GSTT1 +. Odds ratios for renal cell cancer were 2.7 for GSTM1 + individuals (95% CI, 1.18-6.33; P < 0.02) and 4.2 for GSTT1 + individuals (95% CI, 1.16-14.91; P < 0.05), respectively. The data support the present concept of the nephrocarcinogenicity of TRI.

Species differences in acrylonitrile metabolism and toxicity between experimental animals and humans based on observations in human accidental poisonings

The high acute toxicity of acrylonitrile may be a result of its intrinsic biological reactivity or of its metabolite cyanide. Intravenous N-acetylcysteine has been recommended for treatment of accidental intoxications in acrylonitrile workers, but such recommendations vary internationally. Acrylonitrile is metabolized in humans and experimental animals via two competing pathways; the glutathione-dependent pathway is considered to represent an avenue of detoxication whilst the oxidative pathway leads to a genotoxic epoxide, cyanoethylene oxide, and to elimination of cyanide. Cases of acute acrylonitrile overexposure or intoxication have occurred within persons having industrial contact with acrylonitrile; the route of exposure was by inhalation and/or by skin contact. The combined observations lead to the conclusion of a much higher impact of the oxidative metabolism of acrylonitrile in humans than in rodents. This is confirmed by differences in the clinical picture of acute life-threatening intoxications in both species, as well as by differential efficacies of antidotes. A combination of N-acetylcysteine with sodium thiosulfate seems an appropriate measure for antidote therapy of acute acrylonitrile intoxications. Clinical observations also highlight the practical importance of human individual susceptibility differences. Furthermore, differential adduct monitoring, assessing protein adducts with different rates of decay, enables the development of more elaborated biological monitoring strategies for the surveillance of workers with potential acrylonitrile contact.

An enhanced procedure for the rapid digestion of high silicate archeological specimens followed by ICP-MS determination of traces of rare earth elements (REE's)

A straightforward procedure for the acid digestion of geological samples with SiO2 concentrations ranging between about 40 to 80%, is described. A powdered sample (200 mesh) of 500 mg was used and fused with 1000 mg spectroflux at about 1000 degreesC in a platinum crucible. The molten was subsequently digested in an aqueous solution of HNO3 at 100 degreesC. Several systematic digestion procedures were followed using various concentrations of HNO3. It was found that a relationship could be established between the dissolution-time and acid concentration. For an acid concentration of 15% an optimum dissolution-time of under 4 min was recorded. To verify that the dissolutions were complete, they were subjected to rigorous quality control tests. The turbidity and viscosity were examined at different intervals and the results were compared with that of deionised water. No significant change in either parameter was observed. The shelf-life of each solution lasted for several months, after which time polymeric silicic acid formed in some solutions, resulting in the presence of a gelatinous solid. The method is cost effective and is clearly well suited for routine applications on a small scale, especially in laboratories in developing countries. ICP-MS was applied to the determination of 13 Rare Earth Elements and Hf in a set of 107 archaeological samples subjected to the above digestion procedure. The distribution of these elements was examined and the possibility of using the REE's for provenance studies is discussed.

Risk management and high reliability : a case study of Australian airport management

This thesis investigated risk management and organisational reliability in airports from the perspective of complex sociotechnical systems (CSSs). Two research studies were undertaken, the first focusing on the processes by which disruptive events occur, are detected and responded to; the second exploring the presence of organisational reliability traits within airports. A key result of the studies was the development of new approach: the Critical Incident Disturbance Process model that detailed a means to understand and analyse how disruptions in complex CSSs might be influenced by vulnerability reduction and enhanced risk management. Further, this thesis identified and defined the concept of 'compartmentalised reliability' in complex sociotechnical systems, extending existing knowledge of high reliability theory.