147 resultados para parameter uncertainty
Resumo:
The quality and bitrate modeling is essential to effectively adapt the bitrate and quality of videos when delivered to multiplatform devices over resource constraint heterogeneous networks. The recent model proposed by Wang et al. estimates the bitrate and quality of videos in terms of the frame rate and quantization parameter. However, to build an effective video adaptation framework, it is crucial to incorporate the spatial resolution in the analytical model for bitrate and perceptual quality adaptation. Hence, this paper proposes an analytical model to estimate the bitrate of videos in terms of quantization parameter, frame rate, and spatial resolution. The model can fit the measured data accurately which is evident from the high Pearson correlation. The proposed model is based on the observation that the relative reduction in bitrate due to decreasing spatial resolution is independent of the quantization parameter and frame rate. This modeling can be used for rate-constrained bit-stream adaptation scheme which selects the scalability parameters to optimize the perceptual quality for a given bandwidth constraint.
Resumo:
From a ‘cultural science’ perspective, this paper traces one aspect of a more general shift, from the realist representational regime of modernity to the productive DIY systems of the internet era. It argues that collecting and archiving is transformed by this change. Modern museums – and also broadcast television – were based on determinist or ‘essence’ theory; while internet archives like YouTube (and the internet as an archive) are based on ‘probability’ theory. The paper goes through the differences between modernist ‘essence’ and postmodern ‘probability’; starting from the obvious difference that in a museum each object is selected by experts for its intrinsic properties, while on the internet you don’t know what you will find. The status of individual objects is uncertain, although the productivity of the overall archive is unlimited. The paper links these differences with changes in contemporary culture – from a Newtonian to a quantum universe, progress to risk, institutional structure to evolutionary change, objectivity to uncertainty, identity to performance. Borrowing some of its methodology from science fiction, the paper uses examples from museums and online archives, ranging from the oldest stone tool in the world to the latest tribute vid on the net.
Resumo:
This paper investigates the use of time-frequency techniques to assist in the estimation of power system modes which are resolvable by a Digital Fourier Transform (DFT). The limitations of linear estimation techniques in the presence of large disturbances which excite system non-linearities, particularly the swing equation non-linearity are shown. Where a nonlinearity manifests itself as time varying modal frequencies the Wigner-Ville Distribution (WVD) is used to describe the variation in modal frequencies and construct a window over which standard linear estimation techniques can be used. The error obtained even in the presence of multiple resolvable modes is better than 2%.
Resumo:
The 27-item Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS) has become one of the most frequently used measure of Intolerance of Uncertainty. More recently, an abridged, 12-item version of the IUS has been developed. The current research used clinical (n = 50) and non-clinical (n = 56) samples to examine and compare the psychometric properties of both versions of the IUS. The two scales showed good internal consistency at both the total and subscale level and had satisfactory test-retest reliability. Both versions were correlated with worry and trait anxiety and had satisfactory concurrent validity. Significant differences between the scores of the clinical and non-clinical sample supported discriminant validity. Predictive validity was also supported for the two scales. Total scores, in the case of the clinical sample, and a subscale, in the case of the non-clinical sample, significantly predicted pathological worry and trait anxiety. Overall, the clinicians and researchers can use either version of the IUS with confidence, due to their sound psychometric properties.
Resumo:
Real‐time kinematic (RTK) GPS techniques have been extensively developed for applications including surveying, structural monitoring, and machine automation. Limitations of the existing RTK techniques that hinder their applications for geodynamics purposes are twofold: (1) the achievable RTK accuracy is on the level of a few centimeters and the uncertainty of vertical component is 1.5–2 times worse than those of horizontal components and (2) the RTK position uncertainty grows in proportional to the base‐torover distances. The key limiting factor behind the problems is the significant effect of residual tropospheric errors on the positioning solutions, especially on the highly correlated height component. This paper develops the geometry‐specified troposphere decorrelation strategy to achieve the subcentimeter kinematic positioning accuracy in all three components. The key is to set up a relative zenith tropospheric delay (RZTD) parameter to absorb the residual tropospheric effects and to solve the established model as an ill‐posed problem using the regularization method. In order to compute a reasonable regularization parameter to obtain an optimal regularized solution, the covariance matrix of positional parameters estimated without the RZTD parameter, which is characterized by observation geometry, is used to replace the quadratic matrix of their “true” values. As a result, the regularization parameter is adaptively computed with variation of observation geometry. The experiment results show that new method can efficiently alleviate the model’s ill condition and stabilize the solution from a single data epoch. Compared to the results from the conventional least squares method, the new method can improve the longrange RTK solution precision from several centimeters to the subcentimeter in all components. More significantly, the precision of the height component is even higher. Several geosciences applications that require subcentimeter real‐time solutions can largely benefit from the proposed approach, such as monitoring of earthquakes and large dams in real‐time, high‐precision GPS leveling and refinement of the vertical datum. In addition, the high‐resolution RZTD solutions can contribute to effective recovery of tropospheric slant path delays in order to establish a 4‐D troposphere tomography.
Resumo:
The variability of input parameters is the most important source of overall model uncertainty. Therefore, an in-depth understanding of the variability is essential for uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality model outputs. This paper presents the outcomes of a research study which investigated the variability of pollutants build-up characteristics on road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary highly even within the same land use. Additionally, industrial land use showed relatively higher variability of maximum build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution, whilst the commercial land use displayed a relatively higher variability of pollutant-solid ratio. Among the various build-up parameters analysed, D50 (volume-median-diameter) displayed the relatively highest variability for all three land uses.
Resumo:
Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.
Resumo:
The common approach to estimate bus dwell time at a BRT station is to apply the traditional dwell time methodology derived for suburban bus stops. In spite of being sensitive to boarding and alighting passenger numbers and to some extent towards fare collection media, these traditional dwell time models do not account for the platform crowding. Moreover, they fall short in accounting for the effects of passenger/s walking along a relatively longer BRT platform. Using the experience from Brisbane busway (BRT) stations, a new variable, Bus Lost Time (LT), is introduced in traditional dwell time model. The bus lost time variable captures the impact of passenger walking and platform crowding on bus dwell time. These are two characteristics which differentiate a BRT station from a bus stop. This paper reports the development of a methodology to estimate bus lost time experienced by buses at a BRT platform. Results were compared with the Transit Capacity and Quality of Servce Manual (TCQSM) approach of dwell time and station capacity estimation. When the bus lost time was used in dwell time calculations it was found that the BRT station platform capacity reduced by 10.1%.
Resumo:
Generally speaking, psychologists have suggested three traditional views of how people cope with uncertainty. They are the certainty maximiser, the intuitive statistician-economist and the knowledge seeker (Smithson, 2008). In times of uncertainty, such as the recent global financial crisis, these coping methods often result in innovation in industry. Richards (2003) identifies innovation as different from creativity in that innovation aims to transform and implement rather than simply explore and invent. An examination of the work of iconic fashion designers, through case study and situational analysis, reveals that coping with uncertainty manifests itself in ways that have resulted in innovations in design, marketing methods, production and consumption. In relation to contemporary fashion, where many garments look the same in style, colour, cut and fit (Finn, 2008), the concept of innovation is an important one. This paper explores the role of uncertainty as a driver of innovation in fashion design. A key aspect of seeking knowledge, as a mechanism to cope with this uncertainty, is a return to basics. This is a problem for contemporary fashion designers who are no longer necessarily makers and therefore do not engage with the basic materials and methods of garment construction. In many cases design in fashion has become digital, communicated to an unseen, unknown production team via scanned image and specification alone. The disconnection between the design and the making of garments, as a result of decades of off-shore manufacturing, has limited the opportunity for this return to basics. The authors argue that the role of the fashion designer has become about the final product and as a result there is a lack of innovation in the process of making: in the form, fit and function of fashion garments. They propose that ‘knowledge seeking’ as a result of uncertainty in the fashion industry, in particular through re-examination of the methods of making, could hold the key to a new era of innovation in fashion design.
Resumo:
Starting from a local problem with finding an archival clip on YouTube, this paper expands to consider the nature of archives in general. It considers the technological, communicative and philosophical characteristics of archives over three historical periods: 1) Modern ‘essence archives’ – museums and galleries organised around the concept of objectivity and realism; 2) Postmodern mediation archives – broadcast TV systems, which I argue were also ‘essence archives,’ albeit a transitional form; and 3) Network or ‘probability archives’ – YouTube and the internet, which are organised around the concept of probability. The paper goes on to argue the case for introducing quantum uncertainty and other aspects of probability theory into the humanities, in order to understand the way knowledge is collected, conserved, curated and communicated in the era of the internet. It is illustrated throughout by reference to the original technological 'affordance' – the Olduvai stone chopping tool.
Resumo:
The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered, as they are promising techniques in aeronautic/ aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions and improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. This paper investigates the robust design and optimization for one type of adaptive techniques: active flow control bump at transonic flow conditions on a natural laminar flow aerofoil. The concept of using shock control bump is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of natural laminar flow aerofoil that leads to delaying shock occurrence (weakening its strength) or boundary layer separation. Such an active flow control technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of boundary-layer transition can influence the position and structure of the supersonic shock on the suction/pressure side of aerofoil. The boundarylayer transition position is considered as an uncertainty design parameter in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. This paper studies the shock-control-bump shape design optimization using robust evolutionary algorithms with uncertainty in boundary-layer transition locations. The optimization method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing, and asynchronous evaluation. The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered, as they are promising techniques in aeronautic/ aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions and improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. This paper investigates the robust design and optimization for one type of adaptive techniques: active flow control bump at transonic flow conditions on a natural laminar flow aerofoil. The concept of using shock control bump is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of natural laminar flow aerofoil that leads to delaying shock occurrence (weakening its strength) or boundary-layer separation. Such an active flow control technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of boundary-layer transition can influence the position and structure of the supersonic shock on the suction/pressure side of aerofoil. The boundarylayer transition position is considered as an uncertainty design parameter in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. This paper studies the shock-control-bump shape design optimization using robust evolutionary algorithms with uncertainty in boundary-layer transition locations. The optimization method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing, and asynchronous evaluation. Two test cases are conducted: the first test assumes the boundary-layer transition position is at 45% of chord from the leading edge, and the second test considers robust design optimization for the shock control bump at the variability of boundary-layer transition positions. The numerical result shows that the optimization method coupled to uncertainty design techniques produces Pareto optimal shock-control-bump shapes, which have low sensitivity and high aerodynamic performance while having significant total drag reduction.