Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games

A number of learning problems can be cast as an Online Convex Game: on each round, a learner makes a prediction x from a convex set, the environment plays a loss function f, and the learner’s long-term goal is to minimize regret. Algorithms have been proposed by Zinkevich, when f is assumed to be convex, and Hazan et al., when f is assumed to be strongly convex, that have provably low regret. We consider these two settings and analyze such games from a minimax perspective, proving minimax strategies and lower bounds in each case. These results prove that the existing algorithms are essentially optimal.

Inequitable Provision of Optimal Services for Patients with Chronic Heart failure: A National Geo-Mapping Study

Objective: To compare the location and accessibility of current Australian chronic heart failure (CHF) management programs and general practice services with the probable distribution of the population with CHF. Design and setting: Data on the prevalence and distribution of the CHF population throughout Australia, and the locations of CHF management programs and general practice services from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2005 were analysed using geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Outcome measures: Distance of populations with CHF to CHF management programs and general practice services. Results: The highest prevalence of CHF (20.3–79.8 per 1000 population) occurred in areas with high concentrations of people over 65 years of age and in areas with higher proportions of Indigenous people. Five thousand CHF patients (8%) discharged from hospital in 2004–2005 were managed in one of the 62 identified CHF management programs. There were no CHF management programs in the Northern Territory or Tasmania. Only four CHF management programs were located outside major cities, with a total case load of 80 patients (0.7%). The mean distance from any Australian population centre to the nearest CHF management program was 332 km (median, 163 km; range, 0.15–3246 km). In rural areas, where the burden of CHF management falls upon general practitioners, the mean distance to general practice services was 37 km (median, 20 km; range, 0–656 km). Conclusion: There is an inequity in the provision of CHF management programs to rural Australians.

An improved genetic algorithm and graph theory based method for optimal sectionalizer switch placement in distribution networks with DG

In this paper a new graph-theory and improved genetic algorithm based practical method is employed to solve the optimal sectionalizer switch placement problem. The proposed method determines the best locations of sectionalizer switching devices in distribution networks considering the effects of presence of distributed generation (DG) in fitness functions and other optimization constraints, providing the maximum number of costumers to be supplied by distributed generation sources in islanded distribution systems after possible faults. The proposed method is simulated and tested on several distribution test systems in both cases of with DG and non DG situations. The results of the simulations validate the proposed method for switch placement of the distribution network in the presence of distributed generation.

Adaptive and optimal under frequency load shedding

Power systems in many countries are stressed towards their stability limit. If these stable systems experience any unexpected serious contingencies, or disturbances, there is a significant risk of instability, which may lead to wide-spread blackout. Frequency is a reliable indicator for such instability condition exists on the power system; therefore under-frequency load shedding technique is used to stable the power system by curtail some load. In this paper, the SFR-UFLS model redeveloped to generate optimal load shedding method is that optimally shed load following one single particular contingency event. The proposed optimal load shedding scheme is then tested on the 39-bus New England test system to show the performance against random load shedding scheme.

Optimal sitting and sizing of distributed generators considering plug-in electric vehicles

Some uncertainties such as the stochastic input/output power of a plug-in electric vehicle due to its stochastic charging and discharging schedule, that of a wind unit and that of a photovoltaic generation source, volatile fuel prices and future uncertain load growth, all together could lead to some risks in determining the optimal siting and sizing of distributed generators (DGs) in distributed systems. Given this background, under the chance constrained programming (CCP) framework, a new method is presented to handle these uncertainties in the optimal sitting and sizing problem of DGs. First, a mathematical model of CCP is developed with the minimization of DGs investment cost, operational cost and maintenance cost as well as the network loss cost as the objective, security limitations as constraints, the sitting and sizing of DGs as optimization variables. Then, a Monte Carolo simulation embedded genetic algorithm approach is developed to solve the developed CCP model. Finally, the IEEE 37-node test feeder is employed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the developed model and method. This work is supported by an Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Project on Intelligent Grids Under the Energy Transformed Flagship, and Project from Jiangxi Power Company.

Unit commitment in power systems with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

With the continued development of renewable energy generation technologies and increasing pressure to combat the global effects of greenhouse warming, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have received worldwide attention, finding applications in North America and Europe. When a large number of PHEVs are introduced into a power system, there will be extensive impacts on power system planning and operation, as well as on electricity market development. It is therefore necessary to properly control PHEV charging and discharging behaviors. Given this background, a new unit commitment model and its solution method that takes into account the optimal PHEV charging and discharging controls is presented in this paper. A 10-unit and 24-hour unit commitment (UC) problem is employed to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the developed method, and the impacts of the wide applications of PHEVs on the operating costs and the emission of the power system are studied. Case studies are also carried out to investigate the impacts of different PHEV penetration levels and different PHEV charging modes on the results of the UC problem. A 100-unit system is employed for further analysis on the impacts of PHEVs on the UC problem in a larger system application. Simulation results demonstrate that the employment of optimized PHEV charging and discharging modes is very helpful for smoothing the load curve profile and enhancing the ability of the power system to accommodate more PHEVs. Furthermore, an optimal Vehicle to Grid (V2G) discharging control provides economic and efficient backups and spinning reserves for the secure and economic operation of the power system

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.

A new technique for optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors and setting of LTC

An iterative based strategy is proposed for finding the optimal rating and location of fixed and switched capacitors in distribution networks. The substation Load Tap Changer tap is also set during this procedure. A Modified Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization is employed in the proposed strategy. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost and the capacitors investment cost. The line loss is calculated using estimation of the load duration curve to multiple levels. The constraints are the bus voltage and the feeder current which should be maintained within their standard range. For validation of the proposed method, two case studies are tested. The first case study is the semi-urban 37-bus distribution system which is connected at bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System which is located in the secondary side of a 33/11 kV distribution substation. The second case is a 33 kV distribution network based on the modification of the 18-bus IEEE distribution system. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed strategy.

Cross-entropy optimization for scaling factors of a fuzzy controller : a see-and-avoid approach for unmanned aerial systems

The Cross-Entropy (CE) is an efficient method for the estimation of rare-event probabilities and combinatorial optimization. This work presents a novel approach of the CE for optimization of a Soft-Computing controller. A Fuzzy controller was designed to command an unmanned aerial system (UAS) for avoiding collision task. The only sensor used to accomplish this task was a forward camera. The CE is used to reach a near-optimal controller by modifying the scaling factors of the controller inputs. The optimization was realized using the ROS-Gazebo simulation system. In order to evaluate the optimization a big amount of tests were carried out with a real quadcopter.

Linear adaptive channel equalization for multiuser MIMO-OFDM systems

Linear adaptive channel equalization using the least mean square (LMS) algorithm and the recursive least-squares(RLS) algorithm for an innovative multi-user (MU) MIMOOFDM wireless broadband communications system is proposed. The proposed equalization method adaptively compensates the channel impairments caused by frequency selectivity in the propagation environment. Simulations for the proposed adaptive equalizer are conducted using a training sequence method to determine optimal performance through a comparative analysis. Results show an improvement of 0.15 in BER (at a SNR of 16 dB) when using Adaptive Equalization and RLS algorithm compared to the case in which no equalization is employed. In general, adaptive equalization using LMS and RLS algorithms showed to be significantly beneficial for MU-MIMO-OFDM systems.

Optimal distribution network reinforcement considering load growth, line loss, and reliability

In this paper, a new comprehensive planning methodology is proposed for implementing distribution network reinforcement. The load growth, voltage profile, distribution line loss, and reliability are considered in this procedure. A time-segmentation technique is employed to reduce the computational load. Options considered range from supporting the load growth using the traditional approach of upgrading the conventional equipment in the distribution network, through to the use of dispatchable distributed generators (DDG). The objective function is composed of the construction cost, loss cost and reliability cost. As constraints, the bus voltages and the feeder currents should be maintained within the standard level. The DDG output power should not be less than a ratio of its rated power because of efficiency. A hybrid optimization method, called modified discrete particle swarm optimization, is employed to solve this nonlinear and discrete optimization problem. A comparison is performed between the optimized solution based on planning of capacitors along with tap-changing transformer and line upgrading and when DDGs are included in the optimization.

Glider path-planning for optimal sampling of mesocale eddies

Ocean gliders constitute an important advance in the highly demanding ocean monitoring scenario. Their effciency, endurance and increasing robustness make these vehicles an ideal observing platform for many long term oceanographic applications. However, they have proved to be also useful in the opportunis-tic short term characterization of dynamic structures. Among these, mesoscale eddies are of particular interest due to the relevance they have in many oceano-graphic processes.