Strategy for the development of investment decision-making framework for road asset management for queensland department of main roads

The aim of this project is to develop a systematic investment decision-making framework for infrastructure asset management by incorporation economic justification, social and environmental consideration in the decision-making process. This project assesses the factors that are expected to provide significant impacts on the variability of expenditures. A procedure for assessing risk and reliability for project investment appraisals will be developed. The project investigates public perception, social and environmental impacts on road infrastructure investment. This research will contribute to the debate about how important social and environmental issues should be incorporated into the investment decision-making process for infrastructure asset management.

Effect of height of bridge above water on salt deposition levels

Maintenance of bridge structures is a major issue for the Queensland Department of Main Roads. In the previous phase of this CRC project an initial approach was made towards the development of a program for lifetime prediction of metallic bridge components. This involved the analysis of five representative bridge structures with respect to salt deposition (a major contributor to metallic corrosion) to determine common elements to be used as “cases” - those defined for buildings are not applicable. The five bridges analysed included the Gladstone Port Access Road Overpass, Stewart Road Overpass, South Johnstone River Bridge, Johnson Creek Bridge and the Ward River Bridge.

Report : effect of natural cleaning on salt deposition on Queensland bridges

Maintenance of bridge structures is a major issue for the Queensland Department of Main Roads. In the previous phase of this CRC project an initial approach was made towards the development of a program for lifetime prediction of metallic bridge components. This involved the analysis of five representative bridge structures with respect to salt deposition (a major contributor to metallic corrosion) to determine common elements to be used as “cases” - those defined for buildings are not applicable. The five bridges analysed included the Gladstone Port Access Road Overpass, Stewart Road Overpass, South Johnstone River Bridge, Johnson Creek Bridge and the Ward River Bridge.

Final Report : learning system for life prediction of infrastructure

The project has further developed two programs for the industry partners related to service life prediction and salt deposition. The program for Queensland Department of Main Roads which predicts salt deposition on different bridge structures at any point in Queensland has been further refined by looking at more variables. It was found that the height of the bridge significantly affects the salt deposition levels only when very close to the coast. However the effect of natural cleaning of salt by rainfall was incorporated into the program. The user interface allows selection of a location in Queensland, followed by a bridge component. The program then predicts the annual salt deposition rate and rates the likely severity of the environment. The service life prediction program for the Queensland Department of Public Works has been expanded to include 10 common building components, in a variety of environments. Data mining procedures have been used to develop the program and increase the usefulness of the application. A Query Based Learning System (QBLS) has been developed which is based on a data-centric model with extensions to provide support for user interaction. The program is based on number of sources of information about the service life of building components. These include the Delphi survey, the CSIRO Holistic model and a school survey. During the project, the Holistic model was modified for each building component and databases generated for the locations of all Queensland schools. Experiments were carried out to verify and provide parameters for the modelling. These included instrumentation of a downpipe, measurements on pH and chloride levels in leaf litter, EIS measurements and chromate leaching from Colorbond materials and dose tests to measure corrosion rates of new materials. A further database was also generated for inclusion in the program through a large school survey. Over 30 schools in a range of environments from tropical coastal to temperate inland were visited and the condition of the building components rated on a scale of 0-5. The data was analysed and used to calculate an average service life for each component/material combination in the environments, where sufficient examples were available.

The user query based learning system for lifetime prediction of metallic components

Real-World Data Mining Applications generally do not end up with the creation of the models. The use of the model is the final purpose especially in prediction tasks. The problem arises when the model is built based on much more information than that the user can provide in using the model. As a result, the performance of model reduces drastically due to many missing attributes values. This paper develops a new learning system framework, called as User Query Based Learning System (UQBLS), for building data mining models best suitable for users use. We demonstrate its deployment in a real-world application of the lifetime prediction of metallic components in buildings

Creating a proactive decision-support environment in managing road traffic noise

Properly designed decision support environments encourage proactive and objective decision making. The work presented in this paper inquires into developing a decision support environment and a tool to facilitate objective decision making in dealing with road traffic noise. The decision support methodology incorporates traffic amelioration strategies both within and outside the road reserve. The project is funded by the CRC for Construction Innovation and conducted jointly by the RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (MR) in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, Arup Pty Ltd., and the Queensland University of Technology. In this paper, the proposed decision support framework is presented in the way of a flowchart which enabled the development of the decision support tool (DST). The underpinning concept is to establish and retain an information warehouse for each critical road segment (noise corridor) for a given planning horizon. It is understood that, in current practice, some components of the approach described are already in place but not fully integrated and supported. It provides an integrated user-friendly interface between traffic noise modeling software, noise management criteria and cost databases.

Data mining on prices of highway project main material based on WEB

The management of main material prices of provincial highway project quota has problems of lag and blindness. Framework of provincial highway project quota data MIS and main material price data warehouse were established based on WEB firstly. Then concrete processes of provincial highway project main material prices were brought forward based on BP neural network algorithmic. After that standard BP algorithmic, additional momentum modify BP network algorithmic, self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic were compared in predicting highway project main prices. The result indicated that it is feasible to predict highway main material prices using BP NN, and using self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic is the relatively best one.

Internetalisation : the Internet's influence on international market growth in the firm's outward internationalisation process

It has been suggested that the Internet is the most significant driver of international trade in recent years to the extent that the term =internetalisation‘ has been coined (Bell, Deans, Ibbotson & Sinkovics, 2001; Buttriss & Wilkinson, 2003). This term is used to describe the Internet‘s affect on the internationalisation process of the firm. Consequently, researchers have argued that the internationalisation process of the firm has altered due to the Internet, hence is in need of further investigation. However, as there is limited research and understanding, ambiguity remains in how the Internet has influenced international market growth. Thus, the purpose of this study was to explore how the Internet influences firms‘ internationalisation process, specifically, international market growth. To this end, Internet marketing and international market growth theories are used to illuminate this ambiguity in the body of knowledge. Thus, the research problem =How and why does the Internet influence international market growth of the firm’ is justified for investigation. To explore the research question a two-stage approach is used. Firstly, twelve case studies were used to evaluate key concepts, generate hypotheses and to develop a model of Internetalisation for testing. The participants held key positions within their firm, so that rich data could be drawn from international market growth decision makers. Secondly, a quantitative confirmation process analysed the identified themes or constructs, using two hundred and twenty four valid responses. Constructs were evaluated through an exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling process. Structural equation modelling was used to test the model of =internetalisation‘ to examine the interrelationships between the internationalisation process components: information availability, information usage, interaction communication, international mindset, business relationship usage, psychic distance, the Internet intensity of the firm and international market growth. This study found that the Internet intensity of the firm mediates information availability, information usage, international mindset, and business relationships when firms grow in international markets. Therefore, these results provide empirical evidence that the Internet has a positive influence on international information, knowledge, entrepreneurship and networks and these in turn influence international market growth. The theoretical contributions are three fold. Firstly, the study identifies a holistic model of the impact the Internet has had on the outward internationalisation of the firm. This contribution extends the body of knowledge pertaining to Internet international marketing by mapping and confirming interrelationships between the Internet, internationalisation and growth concepts. Secondly, the study highlights the broad scope and accelerated rate of international market growth of firms. Evidence that the Internet influences the traditional and virtual networks for the pursuit of international market growth extends the current understanding. Thirdly, this study confirms that international information, knowledge, entrepreneurship and network concepts are valid in a single model. Thus, these three contributions identify constructs, measure constructs in a multi-item capacity, map interrelationships and confirm single holistic model of ‗internetalisation‘. The main practical contribution is that the findings identified information, knowledge and entrepreneurial opportunities for firms wishing to maximise international market growth. To capitalise on these opportunities suggestions are offered to assist firms to develop greater Internet intensity and internationalisation capabilities. From a policy perspective, educational institutions and government bodies need to promote more applied programs for Internet international marketing. The study provides future researchers with a platform of identified constructs and interrelationships related to internetalisation, with which to investigate. However, a single study has limitations of generalisability; thus, future research should replicate this study. Such replication or cross validation will assist in the verification of scales used in this research and enhance the validity of causal predications. Furthermore, this study was undertaken in the Australian outward-bound context. Research in other nations, as well as research into inbound internationalisation would be fruitful.

Semantic and context-based retrieval of digital cultural objects [Published in Chinese]

Cultural objects are increasingly generated and stored in digital form, yet effective methods for their indexing and retrieval still remain an important area of research. The main problem arises from the disconnection between the content-based indexing approach used by computer scientists and the description-based approach used by information scientists. There is also a lack of representational schemes that allow the alignment of the semantics and context with keywords and low-level features that can be automatically extracted from the content of these cultural objects. This paper presents an integrated approach to address these problems, taking advantage of both computer science and information science approaches. We firstly discuss the requirements from a number of perspectives: users, content providers, content managers and technical systems. We then present an overview of our system architecture and describe various techniques which underlie the major components of the system. These include: automatic object category detection; user-driven tagging; metadata transform and augmentation, and an expression language for digital cultural objects. In addition, we discuss our experience on testing and evaluating some existing collections, analyse the difficulties encountered and propose ways to address these problems.

Characterisation of soluble components and PAH in PM10 atmospheric particulate matter in Brisbane

Fours sets of PM10 samples were collected in three sites in SEQ from December 2002 to August 2004. Three of these sets of samples were collected by QLD EPA as a part of their regular air monitoring program at Woolloongabba, Rocklea and Eagle Farm. Half of the samples were used in this study for the analysis of water-soluble ions, which are Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4 +, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and the other half was retained by QLD EPA. The fourth set of samples was collected at Rocklea, specifically for this study. A quarter of the samples obtained from this set of samples were used to analyse water-soluble ions; a quarter of the sample was used to analyse Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn; and the rests were used to analyse US EPA 16 priority PAHs. The water-soluble ions were extracted ultrasonically with water and the major watersoluble anions as well as NH4 + were analysed using IC. Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+ Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn were analysed using ICP-AES while PAHs were extracted by acetonitrile and analysed using HPLC. Of the analysed water-soluble ions, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, Na+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ were high in concentration and determined in all the samples. F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and NH4 + ions were lower in concentration and determined only in some samples. Na+ and Cl- were high in all samples indicating the importance of a marine source. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to examine the temporal variations of the water-soluble ions at the three sites. The results indicated that there was no major difference between the three sites. However, comparing the average concentrations of ions and Cl-/Na+ it was concluded that Woolloongabba had more marine influence than the other sites. Al, Fe and Zn were detected in all samples. Al and Fe were high in all samples indicating the significance of a source of crustal matter. Cu, Mn and Pb were in low concentrations and were determined only in some samples. The lower Pb concentrations observed in the study than in previous studies indicate that the phasing-out of leaded petrol had an appreciable impact on Pb levels in SEQ. This study reports for the first time, simultaneous data on the water-soluble, metal ion and PAH levels of PM10 aerosols in Brisbane, and provides information on the most likely sources of these chemical species. Such information can be used alongside those that already exist to formulate PM10 pollution reduction strategies for SEQ in order to protect the community from the adverse effects of PM pollution.

New insights into appetite, inflammation and the use of fish oil in hemodialysis patients

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is commonly seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The condition is characterised by chronic, systemic low-grade inflammation which affects nutritional status by a variety of mechanisms including reducing appetite and food intake and increasing muscle catabolism. PEW is linked with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease, and is associated with lower quality of life, increased hospitalisations and a 6-fold increase in risk of death1. Significant gender differences have been found in the severity and effects of several markers of PEW. There have been limited studies testing the ability of anti-inflammatory agents or nutritional interventions to reduce the effects of PEW in dialysis patients. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It advances understanding of measurement techniques for two of the key components, appetite and inflammation, and explores the effect of fish oil, an anti-inflammatory agent, on markers of PEW in dialysis patients. The first part of the thesis consists of two methodological studies conducted using baseline data. The first study aims to validate retrospective ratings of hunger, desire to eat and fullness on visual analog scales (VAS) (paper and pen and electronic) as a new method of measuring appetite in dialysis patients. The second methodological study aims to assess the ability of a variety of methods available in routine practice to detect the presence of inflammation. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the effect of 12 weeks supplementation with 2g per day of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA), a longchain fatty acid found in fish oil, on markers of PEW. A combination of biomarkers and psychomarkers of appetite and inflammation are the main outcomes being explored, with nutritional status, dietary intake and quality of life included as secondary outcomes. A lead in phase of 3 months prior to baseline was used so that each person acts as their own historical control. The study also examines whether there are gender differences in response to the treatment. Being an exploratory study, an important part of the work is to test the feasibility of the intervention, thus the level of adherence and factors associated with adherence are also presented. The studies were conducted at the hemodialysis unit of the Wesley Hospital. Participants met the following criteria: adult, stage 5 CKD on hemodialysis for at least 3 months, not expected to receive a transplant or switch to another dialysis modality during the study, absence of intellectual impairment or mental illness impairing ability to follow instructions or complete the intervention. A range of intermediate, clinical and patient-centred outcome measures were collected at baseline and 12 weeks. Inflammation was measured using five biomarkers: c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) and white cell count (WCC). Subjective appetite was measured using the first question from the Appetite and Dietary Assessment (ADAT) tool and VAS for measurements of hunger, desire to eat and fullness. A novel feature of the study was the assessment of the appetite peptides leptin, ghrelin and peptide YY as biomarkers of appetite. Nutritional status/inflammation was assessed using the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS) and the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Dietary intake was measured using 3-day records. Quality of life was measured using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 (KDQOL-SF™ v1.3 © RAND University), which combines the Short-Form 36 (SF36) with a kidney-disease specific module2. A smaller range of these variables was available for analysis during the control phase (CRP, ADAT, dietary intake and nutritional status). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 14 (SPSS Inc, Chicago IL, USA). Analysis of the first part of the thesis involved descriptive and bivariate statistics, as well as Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement between methods, and sensitivity analysis/ROC curves to test the ability of methods to predict the presence of inflammation. The unadjusted (paired ttests) and adjusted (linear mixed model) change over time is presented for the main outcome variables of inflammation and appetite. Results are shown for the whole group followed by analyses according to gender and adherence to treatment. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, trends and clinical significance were considered as important as statistical significance. Twenty-eight patients (mean age 61±17y, 50% male, dialysis vintage 19.5 (4- 101) months) underwent baseline assessment. Seven out of 28 patients (25%) reported sub-optimal appetite (self-reported as fair, poor or very poor) despite all being well nourished (100% SGA A). Using the VAS, ratings of hunger, but not desire to eat or fullness, were significantly (p<0.05) associated with a range of relevant clinical variables including age (r=-0.376), comorbidities (r=-0.380) nutritional status (PG-SGA score, r=-0.451), inflammatory markers (CRP r=-0.383; sICAM-1 r=-0.387) and seven domains of quality of life. Patients expressed a preference for the paper and pen method of administering VAS. None of the tools (appetite, MIS, PG-SGA, albumin or iron) showed an acceptable ability to detect patients who are inflamed. It is recommended that CRP should be tested more frequently as a matter of course rather than seeking alternative methods of measuring inflammation. 27 patients completed the 12 week intervention. 20 patients were considered adherent based on changes in % plasma EPA, which rose from 1.3 (0.94)% to 5.2 (1.1)%, p<0.001, in this group. The major barriers to adherence were forgetting to take the tablets as well as their size. At 12 weeks, inflammatory markers remained steady apart from the white cell count which decreased (7.6(2.5) vs 7.0(2.2) x109/L, p=0.058) and sVCAM-1 which increased (1685(654) vs 2249(925) ng/mL, p=0.001). Subjective appetite using VAS increased (51mm to 57mm, +12%) and there was a trend towards reduction in peptide YY (660(31) vs 600(30) pg/mL, p=0.078). There were some gender differences apparent, with the following adjusted change between baseline and week 12: CRP (males -3% vs females +17%, p=0.19), IL6 (males +17% vs females +48%, p=0.77), sICAM-1 (males -5% vs females +11%, p=0.07), sVCAM-1 (males +54% vs females +19%, p=0.08) and hunger ratings (males 20% vs females -5%, p=0.18). On balance, males experienced a maintainence or reduction in three inflammatory markers and an improvement in hunger ratings, and therefore appeared to have responded better to the intervention. Compared to those who didn’t adhere, adherent patients maintained weight (mean(SE) change: +0.5(1.6) vs - 0.8(1.2) kg, p=0.052) and fat-free mass (-0.1 (1.6) vs -1.8 (1.8) kg, p=0.045). There was no difference in change between the intervention and control phase for CRP, appetite, nutritional status or dietary intake. The thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It has advanced knowledge of methods of assessing inflammation and appetite. Retrospective ratings of hunger on a VAS appear to be a valid method of assessing appetite although samples which include patients with very poor appetite are required to confirm this. Supplementation with fish oil appeared to improve subjective appetite and dampen the inflammatory response. The effectiveness of the intervention is influenced by gender and adherence. Males appear to be more responsive to the primary outcome variables than females, and the quality of response is improved with better adherence. These results provide evidence to support future interventions aimed at reducing the effects of PEW in dialysis patients.

A study into the permeability and compressibility of Australian bagasse pulp

This is an experimental study into the permeability and compressibility properties of bagasse pulp pads. Three experimental rigs were custom-built for this project. The experimental work is complemented by modelling work. Both the steady-state and dynamic behaviour of pulp pads are evaluated in the experimental and modelling components of this project. Bagasse, the fibrous residue that remains after sugar is extracted from sugarcane, is normally burnt in Australia to generate steam and electricity for the sugar factory. A study into bagasse pulp was motivated by the possibility of making highly value-added pulp products from bagasse for the financial benefit of sugarcane millers and growers. The bagasse pulp and paper industry is a multibillion dollar industry (1). Bagasse pulp could replace eucalypt pulp which is more widely used in the local production of paper products. An opportunity exists for replacing the large quantity of mainly generic paper products imported to Australia. This includes 949,000 tonnes of generic photocopier papers (2). The use of bagasse pulp for paper manufacture is the main application area of interest for this study. Bagasse contains a large quantity of short parenchyma cells called ‘pith’. Around 30% of the shortest fibres are removed from bagasse prior to pulping. Despite the ‘depithing’ operations in conventional bagasse pulp mills, a large amount of pith remains in the pulp. Amongst Australian paper producers there is a perception that the high quantity of short fibres in bagasse pulp leads to poor filtration behaviour at the wet-end of a paper machine. Bagasse pulp’s poor filtration behaviour reduces paper production rates and consequently revenue when compared to paper production using locally made eucalypt pulp. Pulp filtration can be characterised by two interacting factors; permeability and compressibility. Surprisingly, there has previously been very little rigorous investigation into neither bagasse pulp permeability nor compressibility. Only freeness testing of bagasse pulp has been published in the open literature. As a result, this study has focussed on a detailed investigation of the filtration properties of bagasse pulp pads. As part of this investigation, this study investigated three options for improving the permeability and compressibility properties of Australian bagasse pulp pads. Two options for further pre-treating depithed bagasse prior to pulping were considered. Firstly, bagasse was fractionated based on size. Two bagasse fractions were produced, ‘coarse’ and ‘medium’ bagasse fractions. Secondly, bagasse was collected after being processed on two types of juice extraction technology, i.e. from a sugar mill and from a sugar diffuser. Finally one method of post-treating the bagasse pulp was investigated. The effects of chemical additives, which are known to improve freeness, were also assessed for their effect on pulp pad permeability and compressibility. Pre-treated Australian bagasse pulp samples were compared with several benchmark pulp samples. A sample of commonly used kraft Eucalyptus globulus pulp was obtained. A sample of depithed Argentinean bagasse, which is used for commercial paper production, was also obtained. A sample of Australian bagasse which was depithed as per typical factory operations was also produced for benchmarking purposes. The steady-state pulp pad permeability and compressibility parameters were determined experimentally using two purpose-built experimental rigs. In reality, steady-state conditions do not exist on a paper machine. The permeability changes as the sheet compresses over time. Hence, a dynamic model was developed which uses the experimentally determined steady-state permeability and compressibility parameters as inputs. The filtration model was developed with a view to designing pulp processing equipment that is suitable specifically for bagasse pulp. The predicted results of the dynamic model were compared to experimental data. The effectiveness of a polymeric and microparticle chemical additives for improving the retention of short fibres and increasing the drainage rate of a bagasse pulp slurry was determined in a third purpose-built rig; a modified Dynamic Drainage Jar (DDJ). These chemical additives were then used in the making of a pulp pad, and their effect on the steady-state and dynamic permeability and compressibility of bagasse pulp pads was determined. The most important finding from this investigation was that Australian bagasse pulp was produced with higher permeability than eucalypt pulp, despite a higher overall content of short fibres. It is thought this research outcome could enable Australian paper producers to switch from eucalypt pulp to bagasse pulp without sacrificing paper machine productivity. It is thought that two factors contributed to the high permeability of the bagasse pulp pad. Firstly, thicker cell walls of the bagasse pulp fibres resulted in high fibre stiffness. Secondly, the bagasse pulp had a large proportion of fibres longer than 1.3 mm. These attributes helped to reinforce the pulp pad matrix. The steady-state permeability and compressibility parameters for the eucalypt pulp were consistent with those found by previous workers. It was also found that Australian pulp derived from the ‘coarse’ bagasse fraction had higher steady-state permeability than the ‘medium’ fraction. However, there was no difference between bagasse pulp originating from a diffuser or a mill. The bagasse pre-treatment options investigated in this study were not found to affect the steady-state compressibility parameters of a pulp pad. The dynamic filtration model was found to give predictions that were in good agreement with experimental data for pads made from samples of pretreated bagasse pulp, provided at least some pith was removed prior to pulping. Applying vacuum to a pulp slurry in the modified DDJ dramatically reduced the drainage time. At any level of vacuum, bagasse pulp benefitted from chemical additives as quantified by reduced drainage time and increased retention of short fibres. Using the modified DDJ, it was observed that under specific conditions, a benchmark depithed bagasse pulp drained more rapidly than the ‘coarse’ bagasse pulp. In steady-state permeability and compressibility experiments, the addition of chemical additives improved the pad permeability and compressibility of a benchmark bagasse pulp with a high quantity of short fibres. Importantly, this effect was not observed for the ‘coarse’ bagasse pulp. However, dynamic filtration experiments showed that there was also a small observable improvement in filtration for the ‘medium’ bagasse pulp. The mechanism of bagasse pulp pad consolidation appears to be by fibre realignment. Chemical additives assist to lubricate the consolidation process. This study was complemented by pulp physical and chemical property testing and a microscopy study. In addition to its high pulp pad permeability, ‘coarse’ bagasse pulp often (but not always) had superior physical properties than a benchmark depithed bagasse pulp.

An application of near-infrared and mid-infrared spectroscopy to the study of selected minerals

Near-infrared spectroscopy is a somewhat unutilised technique for the study of minerals. The technique has the ability to determine water content, hydroxyl groups and transition metals. In this paper we show the application of NIR spectroscopy to the study of selected minerals. The structure and spectral properties of two Cu-tellurite minerals graemite and teineite are compared with bismuth containing tellurite mineral smirnite by the application of NIR and IR spectroscopy. The position of Cu2+ bands and their splitting in the electronic spectra of tellurites are in conformity with octahedral geometry distortion. The spectral pattern of smirnite resembles graemite and the observed band at 10855 cm-1 with a weak shoulder at 7920 cm-1 is identified as due to Cu2+ ion. Any transition metal impurities may be identified by their bands in this spectral region. Three prominent bands observed in the region of 7200-6500 cm-1 are the overtones of water whilst the weak bands observed near 6200 cm-1in tellurites may be attributed to the hydrogen bonding between (TeO3)2- and H2O. The observation of a number of bands centred at around 7200 cm-1 confirms molecular water in tellurite minerals. A number of overlapping bands in the low wavenumbers 4500-4000 cm-1 is the result of combinational modes of (TeO3)2−ion. The appearance of the most intense peak at 5200 cm-1 with a pair of weak bands near 6000 cm-1 is a common feature in all the spectra and is related to the combinations of OH vibrations of water molecules, and bending vibrations ν2 (δ H2O). Bending vibrations δ H2O observed in the IR spectra shows a single band for smirnite at 1610 cm-1. The resolution of this band into number of components is evidenced for non-equivalent types of molecular water in graemite and teineite. (TeO3)2- stretching vibrations are characterized by three main absorptions at 1080, 780 and 695 cm-1.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.