Document clustering evaluation : Divergence from a random baseline

Divergence from a random baseline is a technique for the evaluation of document clustering. It ensures cluster quality measures are performing work that prevents ineffective clusterings from giving high scores to clusterings that provide no useful result. These concepts are defined and analysed using intrinsic and extrinsic approaches to the evaluation of document cluster quality. This includes the classical clusters to categories approach and a novel approach that uses ad hoc information retrieval. The divergence from a random baseline approach is able to differentiate ineffective clusterings encountered in the INEX XML Mining track. It also appears to perform a normalisation similar to the Normalised Mutual Information (NMI) measure but it can be applied to any measure of cluster quality. When it is applied to the intrinsic measure of distortion as measured by RMSE, subtraction from a random baseline provides a clear optimum that is not apparent otherwise. This approach can be applied to any clustering evaluation. This paper describes its use in the context of document clustering evaluation.

Dependence of residual amplitude noise in electro-optic phase modulators on the intensity distribution of the incident field

Our results demonstrate that photorefractive residual amplitude modulation (RAM) noise in electro-optic modulators (EOMs) can be reduced by modifying the incident beam intensity distribution. Here we report an order of magnitude reduction in RAM when beams with uniform intensity (flat-top) profiles, generated with an LCOS-SLM, are used instead of the usual fundamental Gaussian mode (TEM00). RAM arises from the photorefractive amplified scatter noise off the defects and impurities within the crystal. A reduction in RAM is observed with increasing intensity uniformity (flatness), which is attributed to a reduction in space charge field on the beam axis. The level of RAM reduction that can be achieved is physically limited by clipping at EOM apertures, with the observed results agreeing well with a simple model. These results are particularly important in applications where the reduction of residual amplitude modulation to 10^-6 is essential.

Laser-radar data fusion with Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces

This work considers the problem of building high-fidelity 3D representations of the environment from sensor data acquired by mobile robots. Multi-sensor data fusion allows for more complete and accurate representations, and for more reliable perception, especially when different sensing modalities are used. In this paper, we propose a thorough experimental analysis of the performance of 3D surface reconstruction from laser and mm-wave radar data using Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces (GPIS), in a realistic field robotics scenario. We first analyse the performance of GPIS using raw laser data alone and raw radar data alone, respectively, with different choices of covariance matrices and different resolutions of the input data. We then evaluate and compare the performance of two different GPIS fusion approaches. The first, state-of-the-art approach directly fuses raw data from laser and radar. The alternative approach proposed in this paper first computes an initial estimate of the surface from each single source of data, and then fuses these two estimates. We show that this method outperforms the state of the art, especially in situations where the sensors react differently to the targets they perceive.

Optimising the length of Random Breath Tests : results from the Queensland Community Engagement Trial

Research suggests that the length and quality of police-citizen encounters affect policing outcomes. The Koper Curve, for example, shows that the optimal length for police presence in hot spots is between 14 and 15 minutes, with diminishing returns observed thereafter. Our study, using data from the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET), examines the impact of encounter length on citizen perceptions of police performance. QCET involved a randomised field trial, where 60 random breath test (RBT) traffic stop operations were randomly allocated to an experimental condition involving a procedurally just encounter or a business-as-usual control condition. Our results show that the optimal length of time for procedurally just encounters during RBT traffic stops is just less than 2 minutes. We show, therefore, that it is important to encourage and facilitate positive police–citizen encounters during RBTat traffic stops, while ensuring that the length of these interactions does not pass a point of diminishing returns.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. Because fMRI records, through the monitoring of blood flow activity, the location of localised brain activity within the brain, the possibility of combining fMRI measurements with EEG, as a joint inversion activity, was discussed and examined in detail. (3) A major goal for the BRI is to improve understanding about ``when'' (at what time) an epileptic seizure actually commenced before it is identified on an eeg recording, ``where'' the source of this initiation is located in the brain, and ``what'' is the initiator. Because of the general agreement in the literature that, in one way or another, epileptic events and seizures represent abnormal synchronisations of localised and/or global brain activity the modelling of synchronisations was examined in some detail. References C. M. Michel, G. Thut, S. Morand, A. Khateb, A. J. Pegna, R. Grave de Peralta, S. Gonzalez, M. Seeck and T. Landis, Electric source imaging of human brain functions, Brain Res. Rev. , 36 (2--3), 2001, 108--118. doi:10.1016/S0165-0173(01)00086-8 S. Ogawa, R. S. Menon, S. G. Kim and K. Ugurbil, On the characteristics of functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, Annu. Rev. Bioph. Biom. , 27 , 1998, 447--474. doi:10.1146/annurev.biophys.27.1.447 C. D. Binnie and H. Stefan, Modern electroencephalography: its role in epilepsy management, Clin. Neurophysiol. , 110 (10), 1999, 1671--1697. doi:10.1016/S1388-2457(99)00125-X J. X. Tao, A. Ray, S. Hawes-Ebersole and J. S. Ebersole, Intracranial eeg substrates of scalp eeg interictal spikes, Epilepsia , 46 (5), 2005, 669--76. doi:10.1111/j.1528-1167.2005.11404.x S. Ogawa, D. W. Tank, R. Menon, J. M. Ellermann, S. G. Kim, H. Merkle and K. Ugurbil, Intrinsic signal changes accompanying sensory stimulation: Functional brain mapping with magnetic resonance imaging, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , 89 (13), 1992, 5951--5955. doi:10.1073/pnas.89.13.5951 J. Engel Jr., Report of the ilae classification core group, Epilepsia , 47 (9), 2006, 1558--1568. doi:10.1111/j.1528-1167.2006.00215.x L. Lemieux, A. Salek-Haddadi, O. Josephs, P. Allen, N. Toms, C. Scott, K. Krakow, R. Turner and D. R. Fish, Event-related fmri with simultaneous and continuous eeg: description of the method and initial case r port, NeuroImage , 14 (3), 2001, 780--7. doi:10.1006/nimg.2001.0853 P. Federico, D. F. Abbott, R. S. Briellmann, A. S. Harvey and G. D. Jackson, Functional mri of the pre-ictal state, Brain , 128 (8), 2005, 1811-7. doi:10.1093/brain/awh533 C. S. Hawco, A. P. Bagshaw, Y. Lu, F. Dubeau and J. Gotman, bold changes occur prior to epileptic spikes seen on scalp eeg, NeuroImage , 35 (4), 2007, 1450--1458. doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2006.12.042 F. Moeller, H. R. Siebner, S. Wolff, H. Muhle, R. Boor, O. Granert, O. Jansen, U. Stephani and M. Siniatchkin, Changes in activity of striato-thalamo-cortical network precede generalized spike wave discharges, NeuroImage , 39 (4), 2008, 1839--1849. doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2007.10.058 V. Osharina, E. Ponchel, A. Aarabi, R. Grebe and F. Wallois, Local haemodynamic changes preceding interictal spikes: A simultaneous electrocorticography (ecog) and near-infrared spectroscopy (nirs) analysis in rats, NeuroImage , 50 (2), 2010, 600--607. doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2010.01.009 R. S. Fisher, W. Boas, W. Blume, C. Elger, P. Genton, P. Lee and J. Engel, Epileptic seizures and epilepsy: Definitions proposed by the international league against epilepsy (ilae) and the international bureau for epilepsy (ibe), Epilepsia , 46 (4), 2005, 470--472. doi:10.1111/j.0013-9580.2005.66104.x H. Berger, Electroencephalogram in humans, Arch. Psychiat. Nerven. , 87 , 1929, 527--570. C. M. Michel, M. M. Murray, G. Lantz, S. Gonzalez, L. Spinelli and R. G. de Peralta, eeg source imaging, Clin. Neurophysiol. , 115 (10), 2004, 2195--2222. doi:10.1016/j.clinph.2004.06.001 P. L. Nunez and R. B. Silberstein, On the relationship of synaptic activity to macroscopic measurements: Does co-registration of eeg with fmri make sense?, Brain Topogr. , 13 (2), 2000, 79--96. doi:10.1023/A:1026683200895 S. Ogawa, T. M. Lee, A. R. Kay and D. W. Tank, Brain magnetic resonance imaging with contrast dependent on blood oxygenation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , 87 (24), 1990, 9868--9872. doi:10.1073/pnas.87.24.9868 J. S. Gati, R. S. Menon, K. Ugurbil and B. K. Rutt, Experimental determination of the bold field strength dependence in vessels and tissue, Magn. Reson. Med. , 38 (2), 1997, 296--302. doi:10.1002/mrm.1910380220 P. A. Bandettini, E. C. Wong, R. S. Hinks, R. S. Tikofsky and J. S. Hyde, Time course EPI of human brain function during task activation, Magn. Reson. Med. , 25 (2), 1992, 390--397. K. K. Kwong, J. W. Belliveau, D. A. Chesler, I. E. Goldberg, R. M. Weisskoff, B. P. Poncelet, D. N. Kennedy, B. E. Hoppelm, M. S. Cohen and R. Turner, Dynamic magnetic resonance imaging of human brain activity during primary sensory stimulation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , 89 (12), 1992, 5675--5679. doi:10.1073/pnas.89.12.5675 J. Frahm, K. D. Merboldt and W. Hnicke, Functional mri of human brain activation at high spatial resolution, Magn. Reson. Med. , 29 (1), 1993, 139--144. P. A. Bandettini, A. Jesmanowicz, E. C. Wong and J. S. Hyde, Processing strategies for time-course data sets in functional MRI of the human brain, Magn. Reson. Med. , 30 (2), 1993, 161--173. K. J. Friston, P. Jezzard and R. Turner, Analysis of functional MRI time-series, Hum. Brain Mapp. , 1 (2), 1994, 153--171. B. Biswal, F. Z. Yetkin, V. M. Haughton and J. S. Hyde, Functional connectivity in the motor cortex of resting human brain using echo-planar mri, Mag. Reson. Med. , 34 (4), 1995, 537--541. doi:10.1002/mrm.1910340409 K. J. Friston, J. Ashburner, C. D. Frith, J. Poline, J. D. Heather and R. S. J. Frackowiak, Spatial registration and normalization of images, Hum. Brain Mapp. , 3 (3), 1995, 165--189. K. J. Friston, S. Williams, R. Howard, R. S. Frackowiak and R. Turner, Movement-related effects in fmri time-series, Magn. Reson. Med. , 35 (3), 1996, 346--355. G. H. Glover, T. Q. Li and D. Ress, Image-based method for retrospective correction of physiological motion effects in fmri: Retroicor, Magn. Reson. Med. , 44 (1), 2000, 162--167. doi:10.1002/1522-2594(200007)44:13.0.CO;2-E K. J. Friston, O. Josephs, G. Rees and R. Turner, Nonlinear event-related responses in fmri, Magn. Reson. Med. , 39 (1), 1998, 41--52. doi:10.1002/mrm.1910390109 K. Ugurbil, L. Toth and D. Kim, How accurate is magnetic resonance imaging of brain function?, Trends Neurosci. , 26 (2), 2003, 108--114. doi:10.1016/S0166-2236(02)00039-5 D. S. Kim, I. Ronen, C. Olman, S. G. Kim, K. Ugurbil and L. J. Toth, Spatial relationship between neuronal activity and bold functional mri, NeuroImage , 21 (3), 2004, 876--885. doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2003.10.018 A. Connelly, G. D. Jackson, R. S. Frackowiak, J. W. Belliveau, F. Vargha-Khadem and D. G. Gadian, Functional mapping of activated human primary cortex with a clinical mr imaging system, Radiology , 188 (1), 1993, 125--130. L. Allison, Hidden Markov Models, Technical Report , School of Computer and Software Engineering, Monash University, 2000. R. J. Elliott, L. Aggoun and J.B. Moore, Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control, Appl. Math.-Czech. , 2004. B. Bhavnagri, Discontinuities of plane functions projected from a surface with methods for finding these , Technical Report, 2009. B. Bhavnagri, Computer Vision using Shape Spaces , Technical Report,1996, University of Adelaide. B. Bhavnagri, A method for representing shape based on an equivalence relation on polygons, Pattern Recogn. , 27 (2), 1994, 247--260. doi:10.1016/0031-3203(94)90057-4 D. F. Abbott, A. B. Waites, A. S. Harvey and G. D. Jackson, Exploring epileptic seizure onset with fmri, NeuroImage , 36(S1) (344TH-PM), 2007. M. C. Mackey and L. Glass, Oscillation and chaos in physiological control systems, Science , 197 , 1977, 287--289. S. H. Strogatz, SYNC - The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order , Theia, New York, 2003. J. W. Kim, J. A. Roberts and P. A. Robinson, Dynamics of epileptic seizures: Evolution, spreading, and suppression, J. Theor. Biol. , 257 (4), 2009, 527--532. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.12.009 Y. Kuramoto, T. Aoyagi, I. Nishikawa, T. Chawanya T and K. Okuda, Neural network model carrying phase information with application to collective dynamics, J. Theor. Phys. , 87 (5), 1992, 1119--1126. V. B. Mountcastle, The columnar organization of the neocortex, Brain , 120 (4), 1997, 701. doi:10.1093/brain/120.4.701 F. L. Silva, W. Blanes, S. N. Kalitzin, J. Parra, P. Suffczynski and D. N. Velis, Epilepsies as dynamical diseases of brain systems: Basic models of the transition between normal and epileptic activity, Epilepsia , 44 (12), 2003, 72--83. F. H. Lopes da Silva, W. Blanes, S. N. Kalitzin, J. Parra, P. Suffczynski and D. N. Velis, Dynamical diseases of brain systems: different routes to epileptic seizures, ieee T. Bio-Med. Eng. , 50 (5), 2003, 540. L.D. Iasemidis, Epileptic seizure prediction and control, ieee T. Bio-Med. Eng. , 50 (5), 2003, 549--558. L. D. Iasemidis, D. S. Shiau, W. Chaovalitwongse, J. C. Sackellares, P. M. Pardalos, J. C. Principe, P. R. Carney, A. Prasad, B. Veeramani, and K. Tsakalis, Adaptive epileptic seizure prediction system, ieee T. Bio-Med. Eng. , 50 (5), 2003, 616--627. K. Lehnertz, F. Mormann, T. Kreuz, R.G. Andrzejak, C. Rieke, P. David and C. E. Elger, Seizure prediction by nonlinear eeg analysis, ieee Eng. Med. Biol. , 22 (1), 2003, 57--63. doi:10.1109/MEMB.2003.1191451 K. Lehnertz, R. G. Andrzejak, J. Arnhold, T. Kreuz, F. Mormann, C. Rieke, G. Widman and C. E. Elger, Nonlinear eeg analysis in epilepsy: Its possible use for interictal focus localization, seizure anticipation, and prevention, J. Clin. Neurophysiol. , 18 (3), 2001, 209. B. Litt and K. Lehnertz, Seizure prediction and the preseizure period, Curr. Opin. Neurol. , 15 (2), 2002, 173. doi:10.1097/00019052-200204000-00008 B. Litt and J. Echauz, Prediction of epileptic seizures, Lancet Neurol. , 1 (1), 2002, 22--30. doi:10.1016/S1474-4422(02)00003-0 M. M{a}kiranta, J. Ruohonen, K Suominen, J. Niinim{a}ki, E. Sonkaj{a}rvi, V. Kiviniemi, T. Sepp{a}nen, S. Alahuhta, V. J{a}ntti and O. Tervonen, {bold} signal increase preceeds eeg spike activity--a dynamic penicillin induced focal epilepsy in deep anesthesia, NeuroImage , 27 (4), 2005, 715--724. doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2005.05.025 K. Lehnertz, F. Mormann, H. Osterhage, A. M{u}ller, J. Prusseit, A. Chernihovskyi, M. Staniek, D. Krug, S. Bialonski and C. E. Elger, State-of-the-art of seizure prediction, J. Clin. Neurophysiol. , 24 (2), 2007, 147. doi:10.1097/WNP.0b013e3180336f16 F. Mormann, T. Kreuz, C. Rieke, R. G. Andrzejak, A. Kraskov, P. David, C. E. Elger and K. Lehnertz, On the predictability of epileptic seizures, Clin. Neurophysiol. , 116 (3), 2005, 569--587. doi:10.1016/j.clinph.2004.08.025 F. Mormann, R. G. Andrzejak, C. E. Elger and K. Lehnertz, Seizure prediction: the long and winding road, Brain , 130 (2), 2007, 314--333. doi:10.1093/brain/awl241 Z. Rogowski, I. Gath and E. Bental, On the prediction of epileptic seizures, Biol. Cybern. , 42 (1), 1981, 9--15. Y. Salant, I. Gath, O. Henriksen, Prediction of epileptic seizures from two-channel eeg, Med. Biol. Eng. Comput. , 36 (5), 1998, 549--556. doi:10.1007/BF02524422 J. Gotman and D.J. Koffler, Interictal spiking increases after seizures but does not after decrease in medication, Evoked Potential , 72 (1), 1989, 7--15. J. Gotman and M. G. Marciani, Electroencephalographic spiking activity, drug levels, and seizure occurence in epileptic patients, Ann. Neurol. , 17 (6), 1985, 59--603. A. Katz, D. A. Marks, G. McCarthy and S. S. Spencer, Does interictal spiking change prior to seizures?, Electroen. Clin. Neuro. , 79 (2), 1991, 153--156. A. Granada, R. M. Hennig, B. Ronacher, A. Kramer and H. Herzel, Phase Response Curves: Elucidating the dynamics of couples oscillators, Method Enzymol. , 454 (A), 2009, 1--27. doi:10.1016/S0076-6879(08)03801-9 doi:10.1016/S0076-6879(08)03801-9 H. Kantz and T. Schreiber, Nonlinear time series analysis , 2004, Cambridge Univ Press. M. V. L. Bennett and R. S Zukin, Electrical coupling and neuronal synchronization in the mammalian brain, Neuron , 41 (4), 2004, 495 --511. doi:10.1016/S0896-6273(04)00043-1 L.D. Iasemidis, J. Chris Sackellares, H. P. Zaveri and W. J. Williams, Phase space topography and the Lyapunov exponent of electrocorticograms in partial seizures, Brain Topogr. , 2 (3), 1990, 187--201. doi:10.1007/BF01140588 M. Le Van Quyen, J. Martinerie, V. Navarro, M. Baulac and F. J. Varela, Characterizing neurodynamic changes before seizures, J. Clin. Neurophysiol. , 18 (3), 2001, 191. J. Martinerie, C. Adam, M. Le Van Quyen, M. Baulac, S. Clemenceau, B. Renault and F. J. Varela, Epileptic seizures can be anticipated by non-linear analysis, Nat. Med. , 4 (10), 1998, 1173--1176. doi:10.1038/2667 A. Pikovsky, M. Rosenblum, J. Kurths and R. C. Hilborn, Synchronization: A universal concept in nonlinear science, Amer. J. Phys. , 70 , 2002, 655. H. R. Wilson and J. D. Cowan, Excitatory and inhibitory interactions in localized populations of model neurons, Biophys. J. , 12 (1), 1972, 1--24. D. Cumin and C. P. Unsworth, Generalising the Kuramoto model for the study of neuronal synchronisation in the brain, Physica D , 226 (2), 2007, 181--196. doi:10.1016/j.physd.2006.12.004 F. K. Skinner, H. Bazzazi and S. A. Campbell, Two-cell to N-cell heterogeneous, inhibitory networks: Precise linking of multistable and coherent properties, J. Comput. Neurosci. , 18 (3), 2005, 343--352. doi:10.1007/s10827-005-0331-1 W. W. Lytton, Computer modelling of epilepsy, Nat. Rev. Neurosci. , 9 (8), 2008, 626--637. doi:10.1038/nrn2416 R. D. Traub, A. Bibbig, F. E. N. LeBeau, E. H. Buhl and M. A. Whittington, Cellular mechanisms of neuronal population oscillations in the hippocampus in vitro, Ann. Rev. , 2004. R. D. Traub, A. Draguhn, M. A. Whittington, T. Baldeweg, A. Bibbig, E. H. Buhl and D. Schmitz, Axonal gap junc ions between principal neurons: A novel source of network oscillations, and perhaps epileptogenesis., Rev. Neuroscience , 13 (1), 2002, 1. doi:10.1146/annurev.neuro.27.070203.144303 M. Scheffer, J. Bascompte, W. A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S. R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E. H. van Nes, M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara, Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature , 461 (7260), 2009, 53--59. doi:10.1038/nature08227 K. Murphy, A Brief Introduction to Graphical Models and Bayesian Networks , 2008, http://www.cs.ubc.ca/murphyk/Bayes/bnintro.html . R. C. Bradley, An elementary

Assessment on the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.

Learned stochastic mobility prediction for planning with control uncertainty on unstructured terrain

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

Multi-modal deformable medical image registration

Non-rigid image registration is an essential tool required for overcoming the inherent local anatomical variations that exist between images acquired from different individuals or atlases. Furthermore, certain applications require this type of registration to operate across images acquired from different imaging modalities. One popular local approach for estimating this registration is a block matching procedure utilising the mutual information criterion. However, previous block matching procedures generate a sparse deformation field containing displacement estimates at uniformly spaced locations. This neglects to make use of the evidence that block matching results are dependent on the amount of local information content. This paper presents a solution to this drawback by proposing the use of a Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo statistical procedure to optimally select grid points of interest. Three different methods are then compared to propagate the estimated sparse deformation field to the entire image including a thin-plate spline warp, Gaussian convolution, and a hybrid fluid technique. Results show that non-rigid registration can be improved by using the proposed algorithm to optimally select grid points of interest.

Wide-band spectral power fluctuations characterize the response of simulated cortical networks to increasing stimulus intensity

The hippocampus is an anatomically distinct region of the medial temporal lobe that plays a critical role in the formation of declarative memories. Here we show that a computer simulation of simple compartmental cells organized with basic hippocampal connectivity is capable of producing stimulus intensity sensitive wide-band fluctuations of spectral power similar to that seen in real EEG. While previous computational models have been designed to assess the viability of the putative mechanisms of memory storage and retrieval, they have generally been too abstract to allow comparison with empirical data. Furthermore, while the anatomical connectivity and organization of the hippocampus is well defined, many questions regarding the mechanisms that mediate large-scale synaptic integration remain unanswered. For this reason we focus less on the specifics of changing synaptic weights and more on the population dynamics. Spectral power in four distinct frequency bands were derived from simulated field potentials of the computational model and found to depend on the intensity of a random input. The majority of power occurred in the lowest frequency band (3-6 Hz) and was greatest to the lowest intensity stimulus condition (1% maximal stimulus). In contrast, higher frequency bands ranging from 7-45 Hz show an increase in power directly related with an increase in stimulus intensity. This trend continues up to a stimulus level of 15% to 20% of the maximal input, above which power falls dramatically. These results suggest that the relative power of intrinsic network oscillations are dependent upon the level of activation and that above threshold levels all frequencies are damped, perhaps due to over activation of inhibitory interneurons.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Detection of anuran calling activity in long field recordings for bio-acoustic monitoring

This paper presents a system to analyze long field recordings with low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for bio-acoustic monitoring. A method based on spectral peak track, Shannon entropy, harmonic structure and oscillation structure is proposed to automatically detect anuran (frog) calling activity. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is introduced for modelling those features. Four anuran species widespread in Queensland, Australia, are selected to evaluate the proposed system. A visualization method based on extracted indices is employed for detection of anuran calling activity which achieves high accuracy.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.