Handling incomplete data in survival analysis with multiple covariates

This paper studies the missing covariate problem which is often encountered in survival analysis. Three covariate imputation methods are employed in the study, and the effectiveness of each method is evaluated within the hazard prediction framework. Data from a typical engineering asset is used in the case study. Covariate values in some time steps are deliberately discarded to generate an incomplete covariate set. It is found that although the mean imputation method is simpler than others for solving missing covariate problems, the results calculated by it can differ largely from the real values of the missing covariates. This study also shows that in general, results obtained from the regression method are more accurate than those of the mean imputation method but at the cost of a higher computational expensive. Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) method is found to be the most effective method within these three in terms of both computation efficiency and predication accuracy.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

On secrets, lies, and fiction : girls learning the art of survival

This chapter’s interest in fiction’s relationship to truth, lies, and secrecy is not so much a matter of how closely fiction resembles or mirrors the world (its mimetic quality), or what we can learn from fiction (its epistemological value). Rather, the concern is both literary and philosophical: a literary concern that takes into account how texts that thematise secrecy work to withhold and to disclose their secrets as part of the process of narrating and sequencing; and a philosophical concern that considers how survival is contingent on secrets and other forms of concealment such as lies, deception, and half-truths. The texts selected for examination are: Secrets (2002), Skim (2008), and Persepolis: The Story of a Childhood (2003). These texts draw attention to the ways in which the lies and secrets of the female protagonists are part of the intricate mechanism of survival, and demonstrate the ways in which fiction relies upon concealment and revelation as forms of truth-telling.

Effect of magnesium depletion and potassium and chlorothiazide on intracellular pH in the rat, studied by 31P NMR

1. Both dietary magnesium depletion and potassium depletion (confirmed by tissue analysis) were induced in rats which were then compared with rats treated with chlorothiazide (250 mg/kg diet) and rats on a control synthetic diet. 2. Brain and muscle intracellular pH was measured by using a surface coil and [31P]-NMR to measure the chemical shift of inorganic phosphate. pH was also measured in isolated perfused hearts from control and magnesium-deficient rats. Intracellular magnesium status was assessed by measuring the chemical shift of β-ATP in brain. 3. There was no evidence for magnesium deficiency in the chlorothiazide-treated rats on tissue analysis or on chemical shift of β-ATP in brain. Both magnesium and potassium deficiency, but not chlorothiazide treatment, were associated with an extracellular alkalosis. 4. Magnesium deficiency led to an intracellular alkalosis in brain, muscle and heart. Chlorothiazide treatment led to an alkalosis in brain. Potassium deficiency was associated with a normal intracellular pH in brain and muscle. 5. Magnesium depletion and chlorothiazide treatment produce intracellular alkalosis by unknown mechanism(s).

Zoledronic acid preserves bone structure and increases survival but does not limit tumour incidence in a prostate cancer bone metastasis model

Background The bisphosphonate, zoledronic acid (ZOL), can inhibit osteoclasts leading to decreased osteoclastogenesis and osteoclast activity in bone. Here, we used a mixed osteolytic/osteoblastic murine model of bone-metastatic prostate cancer, RM1(BM), to determine how inhibiting osteolysis with ZOL affects the ability of these cells to establish metastases in bone, the integrity of the tumour-bearing bones and the survival of the tumour-bearing mice. Methods The model involves intracardiac injection for arterial dissemination of the RM1(BM) cells in C57BL/6 mice. ZOL treatment was given via subcutaneous injections on days 0, 4, 8 and 12, at 20 and 100 µg/kg doses. Bone integrity was assessed by micro-computed tomography and histology with comparison to untreated mice. The osteoclast and osteoblast activity was determined by measuring serum tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRAP 5b) and osteocalcin, respectively. Mice were euthanased according to predetermined criteria and survival was assessed using Kaplan Meier plots. Findings Micro-CT and histological analysis showed that treatment of mice with ZOL from the day of intracardiac injection of RM1(BM) cells inhibited tumour-induced bone lysis, maintained bone volume and reduced the calcification of tumour-induced endochondral osteoid material. ZOL treatment also led to a decreased serum osteocalcin and TRAP 5b levels. Additionally, treated mice showed increased survival compared to vehicle treated controls. However, ZOL treatment did not inhibit the cells ability to metastasise to bone as the number of bone-metastases was similar in both treated and untreated mice. Conclusions ZOL treatment provided significant benefits for maintaining the integrity of tumour-bearing bones and increased the survival of tumour bearing mice, though it did not prevent establishment of bone-metastases in this model. From the mechanistic view, these observations confirm that tumour-induced bone lysis is not a requirement for establishment of these bone tumours.