Inference and hypothesis in ethnographic studies

This chapter explores the possibility and exigencies of employing hypotheses, or educated guesses, as the basis for ethnographic research design. The authors’ goal is to examine whether using hypotheses might provide a path to resolve some of the challenges to knowledge claims produced by ethnographic studies. Through resolution of the putative division between qualitative and quantitative research traditions , it is argued that hypotheses can serve as inferential warrants in qualitative and ethnographic studies.

Exploiting inference from semantic annotations for information retrieval

The increasing amount of information that is annotated against standardised semantic resources offers opportunities to incorporate sophisticated levels of reasoning, or inference, into the retrieval process. In this position paper, we reflect on the need to incorporate semantic inference into retrieval (in particular for medical information retrieval) as well as previous attempts that have been made so far with mixed success. Medical information retrieval is a fertile ground for testing inference mechanisms to augment retrieval. The medical domain offers a plethora of carefully curated, structured, semantic resources, along with well established entity extraction and linking tools, and search topics that intuitively require a number of different inferential processes (e.g., conceptual similarity, conceptual implication, etc.). We argue that integrating semantic inference in information retrieval has the potential to uncover a large amount of information that otherwise would be inaccessible; but inference is also risky and, if not used cautiously, can harm retrieval.

Strong inference in functional neuroimaging

A recurring question for cognitive science is whether functional neuroimaging data can provide evidence for or against psychological theories. As posed, the question reflects an adherence to a popular scientific method known as 'strong inference'. The method entails constructing multiple hypotheses (Hs) and designing experiments so that alternative possible outcomes will refute at least one (i.e., 'falsify' it). In this article, after first delineating some well-documented limitations of strong inference, I provide examples of functional neuroimaging data being used to test Hs from rival modular information-processing models of spoken word production. 'Strong inference' for neuroimaging involves first establishing a systematic mapping of 'processes to processors' for a common modular architecture. Alternate Hs are then constructed from psychological theories that attribute the outcome of manipulating an experimental factor to two or more distinct processing stages within this architecture. Hs are then refutable by a finding of activity differentiated spatially and chronometrically by experimental condition. When employed in this manner, the data offered by functional neuroimaging may be more useful for adjudicating between accounts of processing loci than behavioural measures.

Inference of the genetic architecture underlying BMI and height with the use of 20,240 sibling pairs

Evidence that complex traits are highly polygenic has been presented by population-based genome-wide association studies (GWASs) through the identification of many significant variants, as well as by family-based de novo sequencing studies indicating that several traits have a large mutational target size. Here, using a third study design, we show results consistent with extreme polygenicity for body mass index (BMI) and height. On a sample of 20,240 siblings (from 9,570 nuclear families), we used a within-family method to obtain narrow-sense heritability estimates of 0.42 (SE = 0.17, p = 0.01) and 0.69 (SE = 0.14, p = 6 x 10(-)(7)) for BMI and height, respectively, after adjusting for covariates. The genomic inflation factors from locus-specific linkage analysis were 1.69 (SE = 0.21, p = 0.04) for BMI and 2.18 (SE = 0.21, p = 2 x 10(-10)) for height. This inflation is free of confounding and congruent with polygenicity, consistent with observations of ever-increasing genomic-inflation factors from GWASs with large sample sizes, implying that those signals are due to true genetic signals across the genome rather than population stratification. We also demonstrate that the distribution of the observed test statistics is consistent with both rare and common variants underlying a polygenic architecture and that previous reports of linkage signals in complex traits are probably a consequence of polygenic architecture rather than the segregation of variants with large effects. The convergent empirical evidence from GWASs, de novo studies, and within-family segregation implies that family-based sequencing studies for complex traits require very large sample sizes because the effects of causal variants are small on average.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour: Properties, inference and application to multivariate clustering

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

Six Curses

This creative writing work was selected for publication in a bi-lingual anthology, published in China, as suitable to be culturally applicable to both Chinese and Australian social contexts. The poem raises six social/ethical issues and comments on them. It is based on research into Chinese traditional poetry that focuses on an image, and after each image this poem provides an ethical comment. It is based in the ethical hypothesis that moral evaluation of individual and social behaviour can not be achieved without ethical judgement which questions social norms. In particular, the poem questions the validity of fundamentalism – the belief in religious, scientific and moral absolutes. This is a key issue in contemporary research into the effect of religion on politics. It also draws on contemporary psychological theory, especially the concept of narcissism. The sociological basis of the work is in drawing parallels between eastern and western ethical issues, stressing similarity by inference. The imagery on which the poem is based selects objects such a single ‘stone’ that take on symbolic connotations common to both Australian and Chinese readers. This is innovative, since very little creative writing has been dome to address commonalities between Australian and Chinese ethical thinking, especially by adopting Chinese motifs.

Towards integrated assessments for urban development

The role of sustainability in urban design is becoming increasingly important as Australia’s cities continue to grow, putting pressure on existing infrastructure such as water, energy and transport. To optimise an urban design many different aspects such as water, energy, transport, costs need to be taken into account integrally. Integrated software applications assessing urban designs on a large variety of aspects are hardly available. With the upcoming next generation of the Internet often referred to as the Semantic Web, data can become more machine-interpretable by developing ontologies that can support the development of integrated software systems. Software systems can use these ontologies to perform an intelligent task such as assessing an urban design on a particular aspect. When ontologies of different applications are aligned, they can share information resulting in interoperability. Inference such as compliancy checks and classifications can support aligning the ontologies. A proof of concept implementation has been made to demonstrate and validate the usefulness of machine interpretable ontologies for urban designs.

Error, Bias, and Long-Branch Attraction in Data for Two Chloroplast Photosystem Genes in Seed Plants

Sequences of two chloroplast photosystem genes, psaA and psbB, together comprising about 3,500 bp, were obtained for all five major groups of extant seed plants and several outgroups among other vascular plants. Strongly supported, but significantly conflicting, phylogenetic signals were obtained in parsimony analyses from partitions of the data into first and second codon positions versus third positions. In the former, both genes agreed on a monophyletic gymnosperms, with Gnetales closely related to certain conifers. In the latter, Gnetales are inferred to be the sister group of all other seed plants, with gymnosperms paraphyletic. None of the data supported the modern ‘‘anthophyte hypothesis,’’ which places Gnetales as the sister group of flowering plants. A series of simulation studies were undertaken to examine the error rate for parsimony inference. Three kinds of errors were examined: random error, systematic bias (both properties of finite data sets), and statistical inconsistency owing to long-branch attraction (an asymptotic property). Parsimony reconstructions were extremely biased for third-position data for psbB. Regardless of the true underlying tree, a tree in which Gnetales are sister to all other seed plants was likely to be reconstructed for these data. None of the combinations of genes or partitions permits the anthophyte tree to be reconstructed with high probability. Simulations of progressively larger data sets indicate the existence of long-branch attraction (statistical inconsistency) for third-position psbB data if either the anthophyte tree or the gymnosperm tree is correct. This is also true for the anthophyte tree using either psaA third positions or psbB first and second positions. A factor contributing to bias and inconsistency is extremely short branches at the base of the seed plant radiation, coupled with extremely high rates in Gnetales and nonseed plant outgroups. M. J. Sanderson,* M. F. Wojciechowski,*† J.-M. Hu,* T. Sher Khan,* and S. G. Brady

Entrepreneurial bricolage : towards systematic empirical testing

The behavioral theory of “entrepreneurial bricolage” attempts to understand what entrepreneurs do when faced with resource constraints. Most research about bricolage, defined as “making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities” (Baker & Nelson 2005: 333), has been qualitative and inductive (Garud & Karnoe, 2003). Although this has created a small body of rich descriptions and interesting insights, little deductive theory has been developed and the relationship between bricolage and firm performance has not been systematically tested. In particular, prior research has suggested bricolage can have both beneficial and harmful effects. Ciborra’s (1996) study of Olivetti suggested that bricolage helped Olivetti to adapt, but simultaneously constrained firm effectiveness. Baker & Nelson (2005) suggested that bricolage may be harmful at very high levels, but more helpful if used judiciously. Other research suggests that firm innovativeness may play an important role in shaping the outcomes of bricolage (Anderson 2008). In this paper, we theorize and provide preliminary test of the bricolage-performance relationship and how it is affected by firm innovativeness.

Topological SLAM Using Fast Vision Techniques

In this paper we propose a method for vision only topological simultaneous localisation and mapping (SLAM). Our approach does not use motion or odometric information but a sequence of colour histograms from visited places. In particular, we address the perceptual aliasing problem which occurs using external observations only in topological navigation. We propose a Bayesian inference method to incrementally build a topological map by inferring spatial relations from the sequence of observations while simultaneously estimating the robot's location. The algorithm aims to build a small map which is consistent with local adjacency information extracted from the sequence measurements. Local adjacency information is incorporated to disambiguate places which otherwise would appear to be the same. Experiments in an indoor environment show that the proposed technique is capable of dealing with perceptual aliasing using visual observations only and successfully performs topological SLAM.

My place through my eyes : a social constructionist approach to researching the relationships between socioeconomic living contexts and physical activity

There is a growing evidence-base in the epidemiological literature that demonstrates significant associations between people’s living circumstances – including their place of residence – and their health-related practices and outcomes (Leslie, 2005; Karpati, Bassett, & McCord, 2006; Monden, Van Lenthe, & Mackenbach, 2006; Parkes & Kearns, 2006; Cummins, Curtis, Diez-Roux, & Macintyre, 2007; Turrell, Kavanagh, Draper, & Subramanian, 2007). However, these findings raise questions about the ways in which living places, such as households and neighbourhoods, figure in the pathways connecting people and health (Frolich, Potvin, Chabot, & Corin, 2002; Giles-Corti, 2006; Brown et al, 2006; Diez Roux, 2007). This thesis addressed these questions via a mixed methods investigation of the patterns and processes connecting people, place, and their propensity to be physically active. Specifically, the research in this thesis examines a group of lower-socioeconomic residents who had recently relocated from poorer suburbs to a new urban village with a range of health-related resources. Importantly, the study contrasts their historical relationship with physical activity with their reactions to, and everyday practices in, a new urban setting designed to encourage pedestrian mobility and autonomy. The study applies a phenomenological approach to understanding living contexts based on Berger and Luckman’s (1966) conceptual framework in The Social Construction of Reality. This framework enables a questioning of the concept of context itself, and a treatment of it beyond environmental factors to the processes via which experiences and interactions are made meaningful. This approach makes reference to people’s histories, habituations, and dispositions in an exploration between social contexts and human behaviour. This framework for thinking about context is used to generate an empirical focus on the ways in which this residential group interacts with various living contexts over time to create a particular construction of physical activity in their lives. A methodological approach suited to this thinking was found in Charmaz’s (1996; 2001; 2006) adoption of a social constructionist approach to grounded theory. This approach enabled a focus on people’s own constructions and versions of their experiences through a rigorous inductive method, which provided a systematic strategy for identifying patterns in the data. The findings of the study point to factors such as ‘childhood abuse and neglect’, ‘early homelessness’, ‘fear and mistrust’, ‘staying indoors and keeping to yourself’, ‘conflict and violence’, and ‘feeling fat and ugly’ as contributors to an ongoing core category of ‘identity management’, which mediates the relationship between participants’ living contexts and their physical activity levels. It identifies barriers at the individual, neighbourhood, and broader ecological levels that prevent this residential group from being more physically active, and which contribute to the ways in which they think about, or conceptualise, this health-related behaviour in relationship to their identity and sense of place – both geographic and societal. The challenges of living well and staying active in poorer neighbourhoods and in places where poverty is concentrated were highlighted in detail by participants. Participants’ reactions to the new urban neighbourhood, and the depth of their engagement with the resources present, are revealed in the context of their previous life-experiences with both living places and physical activity. Moreover, an understanding of context as participants’ psychological constructions of various social and living situations based on prior experience, attitudes, and beliefs was formulated with implications for how the relationship between socioeconomic contextual effects on health are studied in the future. More detailed findings are presented in three published papers with implications for health promotion, urban design, and health inequalities research. This thesis makes a substantive, conceptual, and methodological contribution to future research efforts interested in how physical activity is conceptualised and constructed within lower socioeconomic living contexts, and why this is. The data that was collected and analysed for this PhD generates knowledge about the psychosocial processes and mechanisms behind the patterns observed in epidemiological research regarding socioeconomic health inequalities. Further, it highlights the ways in which lower socioeconomic living contexts tend to shape dispositions, attitudes, and lifestyles, ultimately resulting in worse health and life chances for those who occupy them.

International students using online information resources to learn

This qualitative study views international students as information-using learners, through an information literacy lens. Focusing on the experiences of 25 international students at two Australian universities, the study investigates how international students use online information resources to learn, and identifies associated information literacy learning needs. An expanded critical incident approach provided the methodological framework for the study. Building on critical incident technique, this approach integrated a variety of concepts and research strategies. The investigation centred on real-life critical incidents experienced by the international students whilst using online resources for assignment purposes. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews and an observed online resource-using task. Inductive data analysis and interpretation enabled the creation of a multifaceted word picture of international students using online resources and a set of critical findings about their information literacy learning needs. The study’s key findings reveal: • the complexity of the international students’ experience of using online information resources to learn, which involves an interplay of their interactions with online resources, their affective and reflective responses to using them, and the cultural and linguistic dimensions of their information use. • the array of strengths as well as challenges that the international students experience in their information use and learning. • an apparent information literacy imbalance between the international students’ more developed information skills and less developed critical and strategic approaches to using information • the need for enhanced information literacy education that responds to international students’ identified information literacy needs. Responding to the findings, the study proposes an inclusive informed learning approach to support reflective information use and inclusive information literacy learning in culturally diverse higher education environments.

Concise representations for association rules in multi-level datasets

Association rule mining has made many advances in the area of knowledge discovery. However, the quality of the discovered association rules is a big concern and has drawn more and more attention recently. One problem with the quality of the discovered association rules is the huge size of the extracted rule set. Often for a dataset, a huge number of rules can be extracted, but many of them can be redundant to other rules and thus useless in practice. Mining non-redundant rules is a promising approach to solve this problem. In this paper, we firstly propose a definition for redundancy; then we propose a concise representation called Reliable basis for representing non-redundant association rules for both exact rules and approximate rules. An important contribution of this paper is that we propose to use the certainty factor as the criteria to measure the strength of the discovered association rules. With the criteria, we can determine the boundary between redundancy and non-redundancy to ensure eliminating as many redundant rules as possible without reducing the inference capacity of and the belief to the remaining extracted non-redundant rules. We prove that the redundancy elimination based on the proposed Reliable basis does not reduce the belief to the extracted rules. We also prove that all association rules can be deduced from the Reliable basis. Therefore the Reliable basis is a lossless representation of association rules. Experimental results show that the proposed Reliable basis can significantly reduce the number of extracted rules.

Determinants and market impact of seasoned equity offerings : the case of A-REITs

The paper examines the decision by Australian Real Estate Trusts (A-REITs) to issue seasoned equity offerings from 2000 - 2008 and stock market reaction to the offerings. The findings reveal that highly leveraged A-REITs with variable earnings are less likely to issue seasoned equity offerings. Inconsistent results for structure and type of properties held by the A-REIT do not allow for inference to be drawn. Similar to previous studies of seasoned equity offerings, we find a significant negative abnormal return associated with their announcement and no evidence of excessive leakage of information. Furthermore, market reaction differences to announcements of SEOs for the pre-global financial crisis (GFC) (2000-2006) and GFC eras (2007-2008) are noted with GFC era shareholders incurring larger abnormal return losses at 1.13% in comparison to the pre-GFC era shareholder loss of 0.34% on the SEO announcement day. Cross-sectional regressions show that the issued amount, leverage and profitability are significant factors affecting abnormal returns. Growth opportunities, tangibility, operating risk, size of A-REIT and other variables capturing A-REIT structure and property types held do not have an impact on abnormal returns

Phylogenetic analysis of polyomaviruses based on their complete genomes

Perez-Losada et al. [1] analyzed 72 complete genomes corresponding to nine mammalian (67 strains) and 2 avian (5 strains) polyomavirus species using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic inference. Because some data of 2 genomes in their work are now not available in GenBank, in this work, we analyze the phylogenetic relationship of the remaining 70 complete genomes corresponding to nine mammalian (65 strains) and two avian (5 strains) polyomavirus species using a dynamical language model approach developed by our group (Yu et al., [26]). This distance method does not require sequence alignment for deriving species phylogeny based on overall similarities of the complete genomes. Our best tree separates the bird polyomaviruses (avian polyomaviruses and goose hemorrhagic polymaviruses) from the mammalian polyomaviruses, which supports the idea of splitting the genus into two subgenera. Such a split is consistent with the different viral life strategies of each group. In the mammalian polyomavirus subgenera, mouse polyomaviruses (MPV), simian viruses 40 (SV40), BK viruses (BKV) and JC viruses (JCV) are grouped as different branches as expected. The topology of our best tree is quite similar to that of the tree constructed by Perez-Losada et al.