A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Multi-Hypotheses Tracking using the Dempster–Shafer Theory, application to ambiguous road context

This paper presents a Multi-Hypotheses Tracking (MHT) approach that allows solving ambiguities that arise with previous methods of associating targets and tracks within a highly volatile vehicular environment. The previous approach based on the Dempster–Shafer Theory assumes that associations between tracks and targets are unique; this was shown to allow the formation of ghost tracks when there was too much ambiguity or conflict for the system to take a meaningful decision. The MHT algorithm described in this paper removes this uniqueness condition, allowing the system to include ambiguity and even to prevent making any decision if available data are poor. We provide a general introduction to the Dempster–Shafer Theory and present the previously used approach. Then, we explain our MHT mechanism and provide evidence of its increased performance in reducing the amount of ghost tracks and false positive processed by the tracking system.

FreeS: A fast algorithm to discover frequent free subtrees using a novel canonical form

Web data can often be represented in free tree form; however, free tree mining methods seldom exist. In this paper, a computationally fast algorithm FreeS is presented to discover all frequently occurring free subtrees in a database of labelled free trees. FreeS is designed using an optimal canonical form, BOCF that can uniquely represent free trees even during the presence of isomorphism. To avoid enumeration of false positive candidates, it utilises the enumeration approach based on a tree-structure guided scheme. This paper presents lemmas that introduce conditions to conform the generation of free tree candidates during enumeration. Empirical study using both real and synthetic datasets shows that FreeS is scalable and significantly outperforms (i.e. few orders of magnitude faster than) the state-of-the-art frequent free tree mining algorithms, HybridTreeMiner and FreeTreeMiner.

Automated feature engineering for HTTP tunnel detection

Generating discriminative input features is a key requirement for achieving highly accurate classifiers. The process of generating features from raw data is known as feature engineering and it can take significant manual effort. In this paper we propose automated feature engineering to derive a suite of additional features from a given set of basic features with the aim of both improving classifier accuracy through discriminative features, and to assist data scientists through automation. Our implementation is specific to HTTP computer network traffic. To measure the effectiveness of our proposal, we compare the performance of a supervised machine learning classifier built with automated feature engineering versus one using human-guided features. The classifier addresses a problem in computer network security, namely the detection of HTTP tunnels. We use Bro to process network traffic into base features and then apply automated feature engineering to calculate a larger set of derived features. The derived features are calculated without favour to any base feature and include entropy, length and N-grams for all string features, and counts and averages over time for all numeric features. Feature selection is then used to find the most relevant subset of these features. Testing showed that both classifiers achieved a detection rate above 99.93% at a false positive rate below 0.01%. For our datasets, we conclude that automated feature engineering can provide the advantages of increasing classifier development speed and reducing development technical difficulties through the removal of manual feature engineering. These are achieved while also maintaining classification accuracy.

An empirical investigation of the level effect in Australian interest rates

An extensive literature examines the dynamics of interest rates, with particular attention given to the positive relationship between interest-rate volatility and the level of interest rates—the so-called level effect. This paper examines the interaction between the estimated level effect and competing parameterisations of interest-rate volatility for the Australian yield curve. We adopt a new methodology that estimates elasticity in a multivariate setting that explicitly accommodates the correlations that exist between various yield factors. Results show that significant correlations exist between the residuals of yield factors and that such correlations do indeed impact on model estimates. Within the multivariate setting, the level of the short rate is shown to be a crucial determinant of the conditional volatility of all three yield factors. Measures of model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts is important

An examination of the base rates of post-concussion symptoms : the influence of demographics and depression

Post-concussion syndrome (PCS) is a controversial constellation of cognitive, emotional, and physical symptoms that some patients experience following a mild traumatic brain injury or concussion. PCS-like symptoms are commonly found in individuals with depression, pain, and stress, as well as healthy individuals. This study investigated the base rate of PCS symptoms in a healthy sample of 96 participants and examined the relationship between these symptoms, depression, and sample demographics. PCS symptoms were assessed using the British-Columbia Post-Concussion Symptom Inventory. Depression was measured using the Beck Depression Inventory II. Results demonstrated that: The base rate of PCS was very high; there was a strong positive relationship between depression and PCS; and demographic characteristics were not related to PCS in this sample. These findings are broadly consistent with literature suggesting a significant role for non-neurological factors in the expression of PCS symptomatology. This study adds to the growing body of literature that calls for caution in the clinical interpretation of results from PCS symptom inventories.

Motivational Interviewing (MINT) improves Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) acceptance and adherence : a randomised controlled trial

Objective: Adherence to Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Therapy (CPAP) for Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA) is poor. We assessed the effectiveness of a motivational interviewing intervention (MINT) in addition to best practice standard care to improve acceptance and adherence to CPAP therapy in people with a new diagnosis of OSA. Method: 106 Australian adults (69% male) with a new diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea and clinical recommendation for CPAP treatment were recruited from a tertiary sleep disorders centre. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either three sessions of a motivational interviewing intervention ‘MINT’ (n=53; mean age=55.4 years), or no intervention ‘Control’ (n=53; mean age=57.74). The primary outcome was the difference between the groups in objective CPAP adherence at 1 month, 2 months, 3 months and 12 months follow-up. Results: Fifty (94%) participants in the MINT group and 50 (94%) of participants in the control group met all inclusion and exclusion criteria and were included in the primary analysis. The hours of CPAP use per night in the MINT group at 3 months was 4.63 hours and 3.16 hours in the control group (p=0.005). This represents almost 50% better adherence in the MINT group relative to the control group. Patients in the MINT group were substantially more likely to accept CPAP treatment. Conclusions: MINT is a brief, manualized, effective intervention which improves CPAP acceptance and objective adherence rates as compared to standard care alone.

Dengue fever viral exposure rates among blood donors during outbreaks in North Queensland

Introduction: Dengue poses a problem for safe transfusion of blood components with confirmed reports of transfusion-transmission in Hong Kong and Singapore. The largest outbreak in 50 years occurred in North Queensland during 2008/2009 with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Cairns and Townsville. During this outbreak, supplementary questioning for all donors was implemented, and fresh components were not manufactured from at risk donors. We aim to determine the seroprevalence of dengue exposure in this population during this epidemic. Methods: Samples were collected from blood donors during the 2008/2009 epidemic and 3 months after the last confirmed case. These samples were tested for anti-Dengue IgM, IgG and NS1 antigen with commercially available ELISA based assay kits from PanBio. Results: Initial analyses revealed 2.7% of samples from deferred donors were IgM repeat reactive. Of these, 16% were also positive for anti-dengue IgG, while none of these were positive for the NS1 viral antigen. However, two NS1 positives were found in samples collected from deferred donors. Conclusions: This initial analysis represents recent and cumulative past exposure in a presumed asymptomatic population, and will provide documentation of the rate of asymptomatic dengue infection during the epidemic. This data can also be used to assess the risk of dengue becoming endemic in North Queensland given that the mosquito vector is established in this region.

Identification of radiological alveolar pneumonia in children with high rates of hospitalized respiratory infections : Comparison of WHO-defined and pediatric pulmonologist diagnosis in the clinical context

Background A reliable standardized diagnosis of pneumonia in children has long been difficult to achieve. Clinical and radiological criteria have been developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), however, their generalizability to different populations is uncertain. We evaluated WHO defined chest radiograph (CXRs) confirmed alveolar pneumonia in the clinical context in Central Australian Aboriginal children, a high risk population, hospitalized with acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI). Methods CXRs in children (aged 1-60 months) hospitalized and treated with intravenous antibiotics for ALRI and enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Vitamin A/Zinc supplementation were matched with data collected during a population-based study of WHO-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (WHO-EPC). These CXRs were reread by a pediatric pulmonologist (PP) and classified as pneumonia-PP when alveolar changes were present. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for clinical presentations were compared between WHO-EPC and pneumonia-PP. Results Of the 147 episodes of hospitalized ALRI, WHO-EPC was significantly less commonly diagnosed in 40 (27.2%) compared to pneumonia-PP (difference 20.4%, 95% CI 9.6-31.2, P < 0.001). Clinical signs on admission were poor predictors for both pneumonia-PP and WHO-EPC; the sensitivities of clinical signs ranged from a high of 45% for tachypnea to 5% for fever + tachypnea + chest-indrawing. The PPV range was 40-20%, respectively. Higher PPVs were observed against the pediatric pulmonologist's diagnosis compared to WHO-EPC. Conclusions WHO-EPC underestimates alveolar consolidation in a clinical context. Its use in clinical practice or in research designed to inform clinical management in this population should be avoided. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2012; 47:386-392. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Safety and efficacy of the combination of trastuzumab with docetaxel for HER2-positive women with advanced breast cancer : a review of the existing clinical trials and results of the expanded access programme in the UK

Trastuzumab is a humanised monoclonal antibody against the extracellular domain of HER2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor-2) that is overexpressed in about 25% of human breast cancers. It has shown clinical benefit in HER2-positive breast cancer cases when used alone or in combination with chemotherapy. Trastuzumab increases the response rate to chemotherapy and prolongs survival when used in combination with taxanes. In this article, we review the clinical trials where trastuzumab has been administered together with docetaxel, and we present the results of the trastuzumab expanded access programme (EAP) in the UK. Combination of trastuzumab with docetaxel results in similar response rates and time-to-progression with the trastuzumab/paclitaxel combinations. The toxicity of the combination and the risk of heart failure are low. The clinical data for the docetaxel/trastuzumab combination indicate a favourable profile from both the efficacy and the safety point of view and confirm the feasibility and safety of trastuzumab administration both as monotherapy and in combination with docetaxel. © 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Crizotinib versus chemotherapy in advanced ALK-positive lung cancer

BACKGROUND: In single-group studies, chromosomal rearrangements of the anaplastic lymphoma kinase gene (ALK ) have been associated with marked clinical responses to crizotinib, an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting ALK. Whether crizotinib is superior to standard chemotherapy with respect to efficacy is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, open-label trial comparing crizotinib with chemotherapy in 347 patients with locally advanced or metastatic ALK-positive lung cancer who had received one prior platinum-based regimen. Patients were randomly assigned to receive oral treatment with crizotinib (250 mg) twice daily or intravenous chemotherapy with either pemetrexed (500 mg per square meter of body-surface area) or docetaxel (75 mg per square meter) every 3 weeks. Patients in the chemotherapy group who had disease progression were permitted to cross over to crizotinib as part of a separate study. The primary end point was progression-free survival. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival was 7.7 months in the crizotinib group and 3.0 months in the chemotherapy group (hazard ratio for progression or death with crizotinib, 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.37 to 0.64; P<0.001). The response rates were 65% (95% CI, 58 to 72) with crizotinib, as compared with 20% (95% CI, 14 to 26) with chemotherapy (P<0.001). An interim analysis of overall survival showed no significant improvement with crizotinib as compared with chemotherapy (hazard ratio for death in the crizotinib group, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.54; P=0.54). Common adverse events associated with crizotinib were visual disorder, gastrointestinal side effects, and elevated liver aminotransferase levels, whereas common adverse events with chemotherapy were fatigue, alopecia, and dyspnea. Patients reported greater reductions in symptoms of lung cancer and greater improvement in global quality of life with crizotinib than with chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Crizotinib is superior to standard chemotherapy in patients with previously treated, advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with ALK rearrangement. (Funded by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00932893.) Copyright © 2013 Massachusetts Medical Society.

Treatment rationale study design for the MetLung trial : a randomized, double-blind phase III study of onartuzumab (MetMAb) in combination with erlotinib versus erlotinib alone in patients who have received standard chemotherapy for stage IIIB or IV met-positive non-small-cell lung cancer

We present the treatment rationale and study design of the MetLung phase III study. This study will investigate onartuzumab (MetMAb) in combination with erlotinib compared with erlotinib alone, as second- or third-line treatment, in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are Met-positive by immunohistochemistry. Approximately 490 patients (245 per treatment arm) will receive erlotinib (150 mg oral daily) plus onartuzumab or placebo (15 mg/kg intravenous every 3 weeks) until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, patient or physician decision to discontinue, or death. The efficacy objectives of this study are to compare overall survival (OS) (primary endpoint), progression-free survival, and response rates between the 2 treatment arms. In addition, safety, quality of life, pharmacokinetics, and translational research will be investigated across treatment arms. If the primary objective (OS) is achieved, this study will provide robust results toward an alternative treatment option for patients with Met-positive second- or third-line NSCLC. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Enabling a positive first year experience in higher education through social media and mobile technologies

The first year experience for students within Higher Education institutions has become increasingly important as these institutions strive to improve student retention rates. With many universities also focusing on transforming teaching and learning in an effort to attract and retain students, there is a growing demand to understand and respond to individual student requirements, such as the need to feel a sense of belonging. The literature identifies a sense of belonging as being paramount to a students satisfaction with the institution and it is within this context that this paper reports on a three year study of how first year pre-service education students use social media and mobile technologies in their personal lives and their formal education. More specifically, the study identifies trends in the use of these technologies and the growing need for students to use digital media sharing tools to connect and engage with their peers. The paper contrasts the differences in use between these groups as it seeks to identify the role these technologies can play in their teaching and learning, as well as in promoting an overall positive first year experience.

Using the factors that have a positive impact on the retention of low socioeconomic students to prepare accelerated enrolled nurses for the science units of a nursing degree : a practice report

At a campus in a low socioeconomic (SES) area, our University allows enrolled nurses entry into the second year of a Bachelor of Nursing, but attrition is high. Using the factors, described by Yorke and Thomas (2003) to have a positive impact on the attrition of low SES students, we developed strategies to prepare the enrolled nurses for the pharmacology and bioscience units of a nursing degree with the aim of reducing their attrition. As a strategy, the introduction of review lectures of anatomy, physiology and microbiology, was associated with significantly reduced attrition rates. The subsequent introduction of a formative website activity of some basic concepts in bioscience and pharmacology, and a workshop addressing study skills and online resources, were associated with a further reduction in attrition rates of enrolled nursing students in a Bachelor of Nursing.

The impact of safety measures on the re-offence and crash rates of drink-driving offenders in Victoria

Alcohol is a major factor in road deaths and serious injuries. In Victoria, between 2008 and 2013, 30% of drivers killed were involved in alcohol-related crashes. From the early 1980s Victoria progressively introduced a series of measures, such as driver licence cancellation and alcohol interlocks, to reduce the level of drink-driving on Victoria's roads. This project tracked drink-driving offenders to measure and understand their re-offence and road trauma involvement levels during and after periods of licensing and driving interventions. The methodology controlled for exposure by aggregating crashes and traffic violations within relevant categories (e.g. licence cancelled/relicensed/relicensing not sought) and calculated as rates 'per thousand person-years'. Inferential statistical techniques were used to compare crash and offence rates between control and treatment groups across three distinct time periods, which coincided with the introduction of new interventions. This paper focuses on the extent to which the Victorian drink-driving measures have been successful in reducing re-offending and road trauma involvement during and after periods of licence interventions. It was found that a licence cancellation/ban is an effective drink-driving countermeasure as it reduced drink-driving offending and drink-driving crashes. Interlocks also had a positive effect on drink-driving offences as they were reduced during the interlock period as well as for the entire intervention period. Possible drink-driving policy implications are briefly discussed.