Analysis of involved parties in port water conflicts

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is expected to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. This study aims at examining the occurrence of traffic conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of vessels involved in navigational hazards. A binomial logit model was employed to evaluate the association of vessel attributes and the kinematic conditions with conflict severity levels. Results show a positive association for vessels of small gross tonnage, overall vessel length, vessel height and draft with conflict risk. Conflicts involving a pair of dynamic vessels sailing at low speeds also have similar effects.

Analysis of marine conflicts

The traffic conflict technique (TCT) is a powerful technique applied in road traffic safety assessment as a surrogate of the traditional accident data analysis. It has subdued the conceptual and implemental weaknesses of the accident statistics. Although this technique has been applied effectively in road traffic, it has not been practised well in marine traffic even though this traffic system has some distinct advantages in terms of having a monitoring system. This monitoring system can provide navigational information as well as other geometric information of the ships for a larger study area over a longer time period. However, for implementing the TCT in the marine traffic system, it should be examined critically to suit the complex nature of the traffic system. This paper examines the suitability of the TCT to be applied to marine traffic and proposes a framework for a follow up comprehensive conflict study.

Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Proactive management of collision risks in port waters using navigational traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. To address this safety concern, a comprehensive and structured method of collision risk management is necessary. Traditionally management of port water collision risks has been relied on historical collision data. However, this collision-data-based approach is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of samples for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique that uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collision data. This paper proposes a collision risk management method by utilizing the principles of this technique. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which, consequently, has great potential for managing collision risks in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

The concept of smart cities

Rapid urbanization has resulted in migration of people in urban areas and spatial expansion of urban infrastructures, consequently causing many undesirable malaises and challenges. Concerned with the uncontrolled growth of cities and the associated malaises, there have been numerous initiatives to promote a more rational development of cities. The idea of making cities smart is one of the most promising initiatives which have been a subject of research and development in modern cities. Despite the many activities and initiatives to promote smartness in cities, there is little agreement on what constitute smartness in a city. This inevitably leads to a diversified ways of defining smart cities. By reviewing the existing definitions of smart cities, this paper proposes a framework to define and measure a city’s smartness in a more correct manner.

Modeling collision avoidance decisions in navigation

Due to grave potential human, environmental and economical consequences of collisions at sea, collision avoidance has become an important safety concern in navigation. To reduce the risk of collisions at sea, appropriate collision avoidance actions need to be taken in accordance with the regulations, i.e., International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. However, the regulations only provide qualitative rules and guidelines, and therefore it requires navigators to decide on collision avoidance actions quantitatively by using their judgments which often leads to making errors in navigation. To better help navigators in collision avoidance, this paper develops a comprehensive collision avoidance decision making model for providing whether a collision avoidance action is required, when to take action and what action to be taken. The model is developed based on three types of collision avoidance actions, such as course change only, speed change only, and a combination of both. The model has potential to reduce the chance of making human error in navigation by assisting navigators in decision making on collision avoidance actions.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

The effects of increased endurance training load on biomarkers of heat intolerance during intense exercise in the heat

The effects of increased training (IT) load on plasma concentrations of lipopolysaccharides (LPS), proinflammatory cytokines, and anti-LPS antibodies during exercise in the heat were investigated in 18 male runners, who performed 14 days of normal training (NT) or 14 days of 20% IT load in 2 equal groups. Before (trial 1) and after (trial 2) the training intervention, all subjects ran at 70% maximum oxygen uptake on a treadmill under hot (35 degrees C) and humid (similar to 40%) conditions, until core temperature reached 39.5 degrees C or volitional exhaustion. Venous blood samples were drawn before, after, and 1.5 h after exercise. Plasma LPS concentration after exercise increased by 71% (trial 1, p < 0.05) and 21% (trial 2) in the NT group and by 92% (trial 1, p < 0.01) and 199% (trial 2, p < 0.01) in the IT group. Postintervention plasma LPS concentration was 35% lower before exercise (p < 0.05) and 47% lower during recovery (p < 0.01) in the IT than in the NT group. Anti-LPS IgM concentration during recovery was 35% lower in the IT than in the NT group (p < 0.05). Plasma interleukin (IL)-6 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha concentrations after exercise (IL-6, 3-7 times, p < 0.01, and TNF-alpha, 33%, p < 0.01) and during recovery (IL-6, 2-4 times, p < 0.05, and TNF-alpha, 30%, p < 0.01) were higher than at rest within each group. These data suggest that a short-term tolerable increase in training load may protect against developing endotoxemia during exercise in the heat.

On the diversity analysis of the sequential slotted amplify-decode-and-forward protocol

In this paper, we review the sequential slotted amplify-decode-and-forward (SADF) protocol with half-duplex single-antenna and evaluate its performance in terms of pairwise error probability (PEP). We obtain the PEP upper bound of the protocol and find out that the achievable diversity order of the protocol is two with arbitrary number of relay terminals. To achieve the maximum achievable diversity order, we propose a simple precoder that is easy to implement with any number of relay terminals and transmission slots. Simulation results show that the proposed precoder achieves the maximum achievable diversity order and has similar BER performance compared to some of the existing precoders.

Slotted distributed space-time coding

Distributed space-time coding (DSTC) exploits the concept of cooperative diversity and space-time coding to offer a powerful bandwidth efficient solution with improved diversity. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of DSTC with slotted amplify-and-forward protocol (SAF). Relay nodes between the source and the destination nodes are grouped into two relay clusters based on their respective locations and these relay clusters cooperate to transmit the space-time coded signal to the destination node in different time frames. We further extend the proposed Slotted-DSTC to Slotted DSTC with redundant code (Slotted-DSTC-R) protocol where the relay nodes in both relay clusters forward the same space-time coded signal to the destination node to achieve a higher diversity order.

Sequential slotted amplify-and-forward with partial relay isolation

In this paper, we propose a novel relay ordering and scheduling strategy for the sequential slotted amplify-and-forward (SAF) protocol and evaluate its performance in terms of diversity-multiplexing trade-off (DMT). The relays between the source and destination are grouped into two relay clusters based on their respective locations. The proposed strategy achieves partial relay isolation and decreases the decoding complexity at the destination. We show that the DMT upper bound of sequential-SAF with the proposed strategy outperforms other amplify and forward protocols and is more practical compared to the relay isolation assumption made in the original paper [1]. Simulation result shows that the sequential-SAF protocol with the proposed strategy has better outage performance compared to the existing AF and non-cooperative protocols in high SNR regime.

Sequential slotted amplify-decode-and-forward

In this paper, we propose a novel slotted hybrid cooperative protocol named the sequential slotted amplify-decodeand-forward (SADF) protocol and evaluate its performance in terms of diversity-multiplexing trade-off (DMT). The relays between the source and destination are divided into two different groups and each relay either amplifies or decodes the received signal. We first compute the optimal DMT of the proposed protocol with the assumption of perfect decoding at the DF relays. We then derive the DMT closed-form expression of the proposed sequential-SADF and obtain the proximity gain bound for achieving the optimal DMT. With the proximity gain bound, we then found the distance ratio to achieve the optimal DMT performance. Simulation result shows that the proposed protocol with high proximity gain outperforms other cooperative communication protocols in high SNR regime.

On the probability density function of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables

In this paper we investigate the distribution of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables. Considering the Mellin-Barnes inversion formula and using the saddle point approach we obtain an upper bound for the product distribution. The accuracy of this tail-approximation increases as the number of random variables in the product increase.

Sustainable, safe, smart—three key elements of Singapore’s evolving transport policies

Sustainability, safety and smartness are three key elements of a modern transportation system. This study illustrates various policy directions and initiatives of Singapore to address how its transportation system is progressing in light of these three components. Sustainability targets economical efficiency, environmental justice and social equity by including policies for integrating land use and transport planning, ensuring adequate transport supply measures, managing travel demand efficiently, and incorporating environment-friendly strategies. Safety initiatives of its transportation system aim to minimize injuries and incidents of all users including motorists, public transport commuters, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Smartness incorporates qualities like real time sensing, fast processing and decision making, and automated action-taking into its control, monitoring, information management and revenue collection systems. Various policy implications and technology applications along these three directions reveal that smart technologies facilitate implementation of policies promoting sustainability and safety. The Singapore experience could serve as a good reference for other cities in promoting a transportation system that is sustainable, safe and smart.