Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

GWAS of 126,559 individuals identifies genetic variants associated with educational attainment

A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment was conducted in a discovery sample of 101,069 individuals and a replication sample of 25,490. Three independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are genome-wide significant (rs9320913, rs11584700, rs4851266), and all three replicate. Estimated effects sizes are small (coefficient of determination R(2) approximately 0.02%), approximately 1 month of schooling per allele. A linear polygenic score from all measured SNPs accounts for approximately 2% of the variance in both educational attainment and cognitive function. Genes in the region of the loci have previously been associated with health, cognitive, and central nervous system phenotypes, and bioinformatics analyses suggest the involvement of the anterior caudate nucleus. These findings provide promising candidate SNPs for follow-up work, and our effect size estimates can anchor power analyses in social-science genetics.

Meta-analyses identify 13 loci associated with age at menopause and highlight DNA repair and immune pathways

To newly identify loci for age at natural menopause, we carried out a meta-analysis of 22 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 38,968 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,435 women. In addition to four known loci, we identified 13 loci newly associated with age at natural menopause (at P < 5 x 10(-8)). Candidate genes located at these newly associated loci include genes implicated in DNA repair (EXO1, HELQ, UIMC1, FAM175A, FANCI, TLK1, POLG and PRIM1) and immune function (IL11, NLRP11 and PRRC2A (also known as BAT2)). Gene-set enrichment pathway analyses using the full GWAS data set identified exoDNase, NF-kappaB signaling and mitochondrial dysfunction as biological processes related to timing of menopause.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of common variant differences between men and women

The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 x 10(-8)) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ~115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.

Association analyses of 249,796 individuals reveal 18 new loci associated with body mass index

Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and approximately 2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 x 10(-)(8)), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.

Sequence variants in three loci influence monocyte counts and erythrocyte volume

Blood cells participate in vital physiological processes, and their numbers are tightly regulated so that homeostasis is maintained. Disruption of key regulatory mechanisms underlies many blood-related Mendelian diseases but also contributes to more common disorders, including atherosclerosis. We searched for quantitative trait loci (QTL) for hematology traits through a whole-genome association study, because these could provide new insights into both hemopoeitic and disease mechanisms. We tested 1.8 million variants for association with 13 hematology traits measured in 6015 individuals from the Australian and Dutch populations. These traits included hemoglobin composition, platelet counts, and red blood cell and white blood cell indices. We identified three regions of strong association that, to our knowledge, have not been previously reported in the literature. The first was located in an intergenic region of chromosome 9q31 near LPAR1, explaining 1.5% of the variation in monocyte counts (best SNP rs7023923, p=8.9x10(-14)). The second locus was located on chromosome 6p21 and associated with mean cell erythrocyte volume (rs12661667, p=1.2x10(-9), 0.7% variance explained) in a region that spanned five genes, including CCND3, a member of the D-cyclin gene family that is involved in hematopoietic stem cell expansion. The third region was also associated with erythrocyte volume and was located in an intergenic region on chromosome 6q24 (rs592423, p=5.3x10(-9), 0.6% variance explained). All three loci replicated in an independent panel of 1543 individuals (p values=0.001, 9.9x10(-5), and 7x10(-5), respectively). The identification of these QTL provides new opportunities for furthering our understanding of the mechanisms regulating hemopoietic cell fate.

Association of a low density lipoprotein receptor microsatellite variant with obesity

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a microsatellite polymorphism located towards the 3' end of the low density lipoprotein receptor gene (LDLR) is associated with obesity. DESIGN: A cross-sectional case-control study. SUBJECTS: One hundred and seven obese individuals, defined as a body mass index (BMI) > or = 26 kg/m2, and 163 lean individuals, defined as a BMI < 26 kg/m2. MEASUREMENTS: BMI, blood pressure, serum lipids, alleles of LDLR microsatellite (106 bp, 108 bp and 112 bp). RESULTS: There was a significant association between variants of the LDLR microsatellite and obesity, in the overall tested population, due to a contributing effect in females (chi 2 = 12.3, P = 0.002), but not in males (chi 2 = 0.3, P = 0.87). In females, individuals with the 106 bp allele were more likely to be lean, while individuals with the 112 bp and/or 108 bp alleles tended to be obese. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that in females, LDLR may play a role in the development of obesity.

The grumpy stump - ultrasound and stump appendicitis

BACKGROUND: Stump appendicitis, the inflammation of an incompletely removed appendix, is a rare clinical presentation. Sonography can be useful in the diagnosis of the condition; by either directly visualising the inflamed stump, or by identifying signs of peri-caecal inflammation that can raise suspicion of the condition. SUMMARY OF WORK: A potential case of stump appendicitis was identified. This prompted a review of literature focused on the incidence of stump appendicitis, utility of ultrasound to identify an inflamed appendiceal stump, and surgical techniques used in appendectomy. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Stump appendicitis is rare, with as few as 61 cases identified in literature during the last 60 years1. Of the two common techniques of appendectomy, which are ligation and invagination, the former can sometimes leave a residual stump that acts as a potential lumen for the pathophysiological process of appendicitis to recur. Established sonographic criteria for appendicitis also apply to the residual stump. Sonographic secondary signs that suggest the presence of acute appendicitis2 have also been demonstrated in cases of stump appendicitis3, even in the absence of an identifiable stump. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Appendicitis is usually dismissed in patients with a history of appendectomy. Though uncommon, sonographers should be aware of stump appendicitis in post-appendectomy patients that present with right iliac fossa pain from months to decades later. REFERENCE(S) 1. Subramanian A, Liang MK. A 60-year literature review of stump appendicitis: The need for a critical view. Am J Surg; 2012;203(4):503–7. 2. Reddan T, Corness J, Mengersen K, Harden F. Ultrasound of paediatric appendicitis and its secondary sonographic signs: providing a more meaningful finding. J Med Radiat Sci. 2015;DOI: 10.1002/jmrs.154 3. Martínez Chamorro E, Merina Castilla A, Muñoz Fraile B, Koren Fernández L, Borruel Nacenta S. Stump appendicitis: Preoperative imaging findings in four cases. Abdom Imaging. 2013;38(6):1214–9.