Multi-Outcome Construction Policies : Industry-Focused Research Summary

The Multi-outcomes Construction Policies research project, funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (Project 2006-036-A), sought to explore the costs and benefits of leveraging social outcomes on public construction contracts. The context of the research project was the trend towards the contracting out of public construction works and the attempts that have been made to use new contractual arrangements with construction companies to construction achieve a wide range of social outcomes. In federal and state jurisdictions it is now common for governments to impose a range of additional requirements on public works contractors that relate to broad social/community objectives. These requirements include commitments to train apprentices and trainees; to provide local and/or indigenous employment opportunities; to buy local materials; and to include art works. The cost and benefits of using public construction contracts to achieve social/community goals have, to our knowledge, not been thoroughly researched in an Australian context. This is likely to reflect in large part the relatively short history of contracting out public works. As Jensen and Stonecash (2004) explain, most previous empirical studies of contracting out have attempted to measure the cost savings achieved through privatization, as this was the focus of policy debate in the 1980s and 1990s. Relatively few studies have addressed the ability of contracting arrangements to ensure the delivery of desired ‘quality’ outcomes1, or the costs of achieving these outcomes via contracting arrangements. One of the potential costs of attempting to leverage social/community outcomes on public construction projects is a reduction in the amount of competition for these projects, with obvious consequences for average bid prices and choice. In jurisdictions, such as Western Australia and Queensland, where currently construction market conditions are already

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Body-shadowing effects in indoor MIMO-OFDM channel capacity

We investigate Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems behavior in indoor populated environments that have line-of-site (LoS) between transmitter and receiver arrays. The in-house built MIMO-OFDM packet transmission demonstrator, equipped with four transmitters and four receivers, has been utilized to perform channel measurements at 5.2 GHz. Measurements have been performed using 0 to 3 pedestrians with different antenna arrays (2 £ 2, 3 £ 3 and 4 £ 4). The maximum average capacity for the 2x2 deterministic Fixed SNR scenario is 8.5 dB compared to the 4x4 deterministic scenario that has a maximum average capacity of 16.2 dB, thus an increment of 8 dB in average capacity has been measured when the array size increases from 2x2 to 4x4. In addition a regular variation has been observed for Random scenarios compared to the deterministic scenarios. An incremental trend in average channel capacity for both deterministic and random pedestrian movements has been observed with increasing number of pedestrian and antennas. In deterministic scenarios, the variations in average channel capacity are more noticeable than for the random scenarios due to a more prolonged and controlled body-shadowing effect. Moreover due to the frequent Los blocking and fixed transmission power a slight decrement have been observed in the spread between the maximum and minimum capacity with random fixed Tx power scenario.

Towards continuous surveillance of fruit flies using sensor networks and machine vision

In Australia, the Queensland fruit fly (B. tryoni), is the most destructive insect pest of horticulture, attacking nearly all fruit and vegetable crops. This project has researched and prototyped a system for monitoring fruit flies so that authorities can be alerted when a fly enters a crop in a more efficient manner than is currently used. This paper presents the idea of our sensor platform design as well as the fruit fly detection and recognition algorithm by using machine vision techniques. Our experiments showed that the designed trap and sensor platform is capable to capture quality fly images, the invasive flies can be successfully detected and the average precision of the Queensland fruit fly recognition is 80% from our experiment.

New parameters for daytime wandering

This study aimed to describe wandering using new parameters and to evaluate parameters as a function of cognitive impairment and mobility. Forty-four wanderers in long-term care settings were videotaped 12 times. Rate and duration of wandering episodes were plotted and used to derive parameters from values above and below case medians, proportion of hours wandering, and time of day. Participants wandered during 47% of observations; on average, the hourly rate was 4.3 episodes, the peak hourly rate was 18 episodes, and the peak hourly duration was 19.9 minutes. Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores was negatively correlated with overall duration and number of observations during which duration exceeded 15 minutes per hour, was positively correlated with number of observations without wandering, and was not significantly correlated with rate-related parameters. Mobility correlated positively with rate and duration parameters. Interaction of MMSE score and mobility was the strongest predictor of wandering duration. Parameters derived from repeated measures provide a new view of daytime wandering and insight into relationships between MMSE score and mobility status with specific parameters of wandering.

Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Contemporary New Zealand coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score: TRISS(NZ)

Aims – To develop local contemporary coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score in New Zealand, TRISS(NZ), and to evaluate their performance at predicting survival against the original TRISS coefficients. Methods – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until presentation at Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Coefficients were estimated using ordinary and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results – 1735 eligible patients were identified, 1672 (96%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 63 (4%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1250 (75%) were male and average age was 38 years (range: 15-94 years). TRISS information was available for 1565 patients of whom 204 (13%) died. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.901 (95%CI: 0.879-0.923) for the TRISS(NZ) model and 0.890 (95% CI: 0.866-0.913) for TRISS (P<0.001). Insufficient data were available to determine coefficients for penetrating mechanism TRISS(NZ) models. Conclusions – Both TRISS models accurately predicted survival for blunt mechanism trauma. However, TRISS(NZ) coefficients were statistically superior to TRISS coefficients. A strong case exists for replacing TRISS coefficients in the New Zealand benchmarking software with these updated TRISS(NZ) estimates.

Maintaining centralised application systems : a cross-country, cross-sector, cross-platform comparison

Past studies of software maintenance issues have largely concentrated on the average North American firm. While they have made a substantial contribution to good information system management practice, it is believed that further segmentation of sample data and cross-country comparisons will help to identify patterns of behaviour more akin to many less average organizations in North America and elsewhere. This paper compares the Singapore maintenance scene with the reported North American experience. Comparisons are also made between: Government organizations, Singapore corporations and multinational corporations (MNCs); mainframe and minicomputer installations; and fourth-generation language (4GL) and non-4GL computer installations. Study findings, while in many cases were similar to earlier US studies, do show the importance of Singapore's young application portfolio, the widespread usage of 4GLs and the severe maintenance personnel problems.

Measuring safety effectiveness : literature review

Cohen (1977) reviewed the then current research on occupational safety and stated that both strong company commitment to safety, and communication between all levels of a company are the most influential factors to improving safety. Other relevant factors included careful selection of staff, and early and continuous training throughout the lifetime with the company. These continue to be important factors in OHS today. There has been a continued decrease in the injury rates since Cohen’s review within the Australian construction industry, however, the construction industry has far more injuries and ill-health than the Australian average, with one fatality occurring on average per week in the Australian Construction Industry. The Fatality rate in the building and construction industry remains three times higher than the national average, and 15% of all industry fatalities are in the building and construction industry. In addition the construction industry pays one of the highest workers’ compensation premium rates – in 2001 alone approximately 0.5% ($267 million) of revenue would have to be allocated to the direct cost of 1998/99 compensations (Office of the Federal Safety Commissioner, 2006). Based on these statistics there is a need to measure and improve safety performance within the construction industry.

Exercise and secondary lymphedema : safety, potential benefits, and research issues

Participating in regular physical activity is encouraged following breast cancer (BC) treatment, except for those who have subsequently developed lymphoedema. We designed a randomised controlled trial to investigate the effect of participating in a supervised, mixed-type, moderate-intensity exercise program among women with lymphoedema following breast cancer. Women <76 years who had completed BC treatment at least six months prior and subsequently developed unilateral, upper-limb lymphoedema were randomly allocated to an intervention (n=16) or control (n=16) group. The intervention group (IG) participated in 20 supervised group exercise sessions over 12 weeks, while the control group (CG) was instructed to continue habitual activities. Lymphoedema status was assessed by bioimpedance spectroscopy (impedance ratio between limbs) and perometry (volume difference between limbs). Mean baseline measures were similar for the IG (1.13+0.15 and 337+307ml, respectively) and CG (1.13+0.15 and 377+416ml, respectively) and no changes were observed over time. However, 2 women in the IG no longer had evidence of lymphoedema by study end. Average attendance was over 70% of supervised sessions, and there were no withdrawals. The results indicate that, at worst, exercise does not exacerbate secondary lymphoedema. Women with secondary lymphoedema should be encouraged to be physically active, optimising their physical and psychosocial recovery.

Tests of the elaborated intrusion theory of craving and desire : features of alcohol craving during treatment for an alcohol disorder

Objectives. We tested predictions from the elaborated intrusion (EI) theory of desire, which distinguishes intrusive thoughts and elaborations, and emphasizes the importance of imagery. Secondarily, we undertook preliminary evaluations of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) questionnaire, a new measure based on EI Theory. Methods. Participants (N ¼ 232) were in correspondence-based treatment trials for alcohol abuse or dependence. The study used retrospective reports obtained early in treatment using the ACE, and daily self-monitoring of urges, craving, mood and alcohol consumption. Results. The ACE displayed high internal consistency and test – retest reliability and sound relationships with self-monitored craving, and was related to Baseline alcohol dependence, but not to consumption. Imagery during craving was experienced by 81%,with 2.3 senses involved on average. More frequent imagery was associated with longer episode durations and stronger craving. Transient intrusive thoughts were reported by 87% of respondents, and were more common if they frequently attempted to stop alcohol cognitions. Associations between average daily craving and weekly consumption were seen. Depression and negative mood were associated with more frequent, stronger and longer lasting desires for alcohol. Conclusions. Results supported the distinction of automatic and controlled processes in craving, together with the importance of craving imagery. They were also consistent with prediction of consumption from cross-situational averages of craving, and with positive associations between craving and negative mood. However, this study’s retrospective reporting and correlational design require that its results be interpreted cautiously. Research using ecological momentary measures and laboratory manipulations is needed before confident inferences about causality can be made.

Downtime reduction analysis of the Australia Post flat mail optical character reader

Machine downtime, whether planned or unplanned, is intuitively costly to manufacturing organisations, but is often very difficult to quantify. The available literature showed that costing processes are rarely undertaken within manufacturing organisations. Where cost analyses have been undertaken, they generally have only valued a small proportion of the affected costs, leading to an overly conservative estimate. This thesis aimed to develop a cost of downtime model, with particular emphasis on the application of the model to Australia Post’s Flat Mail Optical Character Reader (FMOCR). The costing analysis determined a cost of downtime of $5,700,000 per annum, or an average cost of $138 per operational hour. The second section of this work focused on the use of the cost of downtime to objectively determine areas of opportunity for cost reduction on the FMOCR. This was the first time within Post that maintenance costs were considered along side of downtime for determining machine performance. Because of this, the results of the analysis revealed areas which have historically not been targeted for cost reduction. Further exploratory work was undertaken on the Flats Lift Module (FLM) and Auto Induction Station (AIS) Deceleration Belts through the comparison of the results against two additional FMOCR analysis programs. This research has demonstrated the development of a methodical and quantifiable cost of downtime for the FMOCR. This has been the first time that Post has endeavoured to examine the cost of downtime. It is also one of the very few methodologies for valuing downtime costs that has been proposed in literature. The work undertaken has also demonstrated how the cost of downtime can be incorporated into machine performance analysis with specific application to identifying high costs modules. The outcome of this report has both been the methodology for costing downtime, as well as a list of areas for cost reduction. In doing so, this thesis has outlined the two key deliverables presented at the outset of the research.

Neurocognitive profiles of people with comorbid depression and alcohol use : implications for psychological interventions

Depression and alcohol use disorders frequently co-occur and are highly prevalent. Both conditions are known to impair cognitive functioning, yet research into the role of these impairments in response to Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) is limited. The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between baseline neuropsychological performance, severity of depressive symptoms and alcohol use disorders. Participants with current depression and hazardous alcohol use were functioning in the average range on all neuropsychological measures prior to treatment entry. Baseline measures of drinking severity and a range of cognitive functions were inversely correlated. After controlling for other baseline variables, superior baseline cognitive functioning predicted greater reductions in depression severity after 17 weeks. These predictive effects occurred across both brief and extended interventions. Findings suggest that improvement in depression following psychological treatment is enhanced by greater fluid reasoning ability and is predicted by executive functioning, regardless of the treatment length or problem focus.

Automating human thought processes for a UAV forced landing

This paper describes the current status of a program to develop an automated forced landing system for a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). This automated system seeks to emulate human pilot thought processes when planning for and conducting an engine-off emergency landing. Firstly, a path planning algorithm that extends Dubins curves to 3D space is presented. This planning element is then combined with a nonlinear guidance and control logic, and simulated test results demonstrate the robustness of this approach to strong winds during a glided descent. The average path deviation errors incurred are comparable to or even better than that of manned, powered aircraft. Secondly, a study into suitable multi-criteria decision making approaches and the problems that confront the decision-maker is presented. From this study, it is believed that decision processes that utilize human expert knowledge and fuzzy logic reasoning are most suited to the problem at hand, and further investigations will be conducted to identify the particular technique/s to be implemented in simulations and field tests. The automated UAV forced landing approach presented in this paper is promising, and will allow the progression of this technology from the development and simulation stages through to a prototype system

Burden of care and general health in families of patients with schizophrenia

Background: De-institutionalization of psychiatric patients has led to a greater emphasis on family management in the community, and family members are often overwhelmed by the demands that caring for a patient with schizophrenia involves. Most studies of family burden in schizophrenia have taken place in developed countries. The current study examined family burden and its correlates in a regional area of a medium income country in South America. Method: Sixty-five relatives of patients with schizophrenia who were attending a public mental health out-patient service in the province of Arica, Chile, were assessed on Spanish versions of the Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale and SF-36 Health Survey (SF-36). Results: Average levels of burden were very high, particularly for mothers, carers with less education, carers of younger patients and carers of patients with more hospitalisations in the previous 3 years. Kinship and number of recent hospitalisations retained unique predictive variance in a multiple regression. Burden was the strongest predictor of SF-36 subscales, and the prediction from burden remained significant after entry of other potential predictors. Conclusions: In common with families in developed countries, family members of schizophrenia patients in regional Chile reported high levels of burden and related functional and health impact. The study highlighted the support needs of carers in contexts with high rates of poverty and limited health and community resources.