Design of experiments for bivariate binary responses modelled by Copula functions

Optimal design for generalized linear models has primarily focused on univariate data. Often experiments are performed that have multiple dependent responses described by regression type models, and it is of interest and of value to design the experiment for all these responses. This requires a multivariate distribution underlying a pre-chosen model for the data. Here, we consider the design of experiments for bivariate binary data which are dependent. We explore Copula functions which provide a rich and flexible class of structures to derive joint distributions for bivariate binary data. We present methods for deriving optimal experimental designs for dependent bivariate binary data using Copulas, and demonstrate that, by including the dependence between responses in the design process, more efficient parameter estimates are obtained than by the usual practice of simply designing for a single variable only. Further, we investigate the robustness of designs with respect to initial parameter estimates and Copula function, and also show the performance of compound criteria within this bivariate binary setting.

Inhibition of p38 pathway leads to OA-like changes in a rat animal model

Objectives The p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signal transduction pathway is involved in a variety of inflammatory responses, including cytokine generation, cell differentiation proliferation and apoptosis. Here, we examined the effects of systemic p38 MAPK inhibition on cartilage cells and osteoarthritis (OA) disease progression by both in vitro and in vivo approaches. Methods p38 kinase activity was evaluated in normal and OA cartilage cells by measuring the amount of phosphorylated protein. To examine the function of p38 signaling pathway in vitro, normal chondrocytes were isolated and differentiated in the presence or absence of p38 inhibitor; SB203580 and analysed for chondrogenic phenotype. Effect of systemic p38 MAPK inhibition in normal and OA (induced by menisectomy) rats were analysed by treating animals with vehicle alone (DMS0) or p38 inhibitor (SB203580). Damage to the femur and tibial plateau was evaluated by modified Mankin score, histology and immunohistochemistry. Results Our in vitro studies have revealed that a down-regulation of chondrogenic and increase of hypertrophic gene expression occurs in the normal chondrocytes, when p38 is neutralized by a pharmacological inhibitor. We further observed that the basal levels of p38 phosphorylation were decreased in OA chondrocytes compared with normal chondrocytes. These findings together indicate the importance of this pathway in the regulation of cartilage physiology and its relevance to OA pathogenesis. At in vivo level, systematic administration of a specific p38 MAPK inhibitor, SB203580, continuously for over a month led to a significant loss of proteoglycan; aggrecan and cartilage thickness. On the other hand, SB203580 treated normal rats showed a significant increase in TUNEL positive cells, cartilage hypertrophy markers such as Type 10 collagen, Runt-related transcription factor and Matrix metalloproteinase-13 and substantially induced OA like phenotypic changes in the normal rats. In addition, menisectomy induced OA rat models that were treated with p38 inhibitor showed aggravation of cartilage damage. Conclusions In summary, this study has provided evidence that the component of the p38 MAPK pathway is important to maintain the cartilage health and its inhibition can lead to severe cartilage degenerative changes. The observations in this study highlight the possibility of using activators of the p38 pathway as an alternative approach in the treatment of OA.

Development and validation of novel methods for microbial source tracking based on Escherichia coli as an indicator of water quality

Microbial pollution in water periodically affects human health in Australia, particularly in times of drought and flood. There is an increasing need for the control of waterborn microbial pathogens. Methods, allowing the determination of the origin of faecal contamination in water, are generally referred to as Microbial Source Tracking (MST). Various approaches have been evaluated as indicatorsof microbial pathogens in water samples, including detection of different microorganisms and various host-specific markers. However, until today there have been no universal MST methods that could reliably determine the source (human or animal) of faecal contamination. Therefore, the use of multiple approaches is frequently advised. MST is currently recognised as a research tool, rather than something to be included in routine practices. The main focus of this research was to develop novel and universally applicable methods to meet the demands for MST methods in routine testing of water samples. Escherichia coli was chosen initially as the object organism for our studies as, historically and globally, it is the standard indicator of microbial contamination in water. In this thesis, three approaches are described: single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping, clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) screening using high resolution melt analysis (HRMA) methods and phage detection development based on CRISPR types. The advantage of the combination SNP genotyping and CRISPR genes has been discussed in this study. For the first time, a highly discriminatory single nucleotide polymorphism interrogation of E. coli population was applied to identify the host-specific cluster. Six human and one animal-specific SNP profile were revealed. SNP genotyping was successfully applied in the field investigations of the Coomera watershed, South-East Queensland, Australia. Four human profiles [11], [29], [32] and [45] and animal specific SNP profile [7] were detected in water. Two human-specific profiles [29] and [11] were found to be prevalent in the samples over a time period of years. The rainfall (24 and 72 hours), tide height and time, general land use (rural, suburban), seasons, distance from the river mouth and salinity show a lack of relashionship with the diversity of SNP profiles present in the Coomera watershed (p values > 0.05). Nevertheless, SNP genotyping method is able to identify and distinquish between human- and non-human specific E. coli isolates in water sources within one day. In some samples, only mixed profiles were detected. To further investigate host-specificity in these mixed profiles CRISPR screening protocol was developed, to be used on the set of E. coli, previously analysed for SNP profiles. CRISPR loci, which are the pattern of previous DNA coliphages attacks, were considered to be a promising tool for detecting host-specific markers in E. coli. Spacers in CRISPR loci could also reveal the dynamics of virulence in E. coli as well in other pathogens in water. Despite the fact that host-specificity was not observed in the set of E. coli analysed, CRISPR alleles were shown to be useful in detection of the geographical site of sources. HRMA allows determination of ‘different’ and ‘same’ CRISPR alleles and can be introduced in water monitoring as a cost-effective and rapid method. Overall, we show that the identified human specific SNP profiles [11], [29], [32] and [45] can be useful as marker genotypes globally for identification of human faecal contamination in water. Developed in the current study, the SNP typing approach can be used in water monitoring laboratories as an inexpensive, high-throughput and easy adapted protocol. The unique approach based on E. coli spacers for the search for unknown phage was developed to examine the host-specifity in phage sequences. Preliminary experiments on the recombinant plasmids showed the possibility of using this method for recovering phage sequences. Future studies will determine the host-specificity of DNA phage genotyping as soon as first reliable sequences can be acquired. No doubt, only implication of multiple approaches in MST will allow identification of the character of microbial contamination with higher confidence and readability.

Analysis of productive performance of crop and animal production systems : an integrated analytical framework

This article presents a two-stage analytical framework that integrates ecological crop (animal) growth and economic frontier production models to analyse the productive efficiency of crop (animal) production systems. The ecological crop (animal) growth model estimates "potential" output levels given the genetic characteristics of crops (animals) and the physical conditions of locations where the crops (animals) are grown (reared). The economic frontier production model estimates "best practice" production levels, taking into account economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. In the first stage, both ecological crop growth and economic frontier production models are estimated to calculate three measures of productive efficiency: (1) technical efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "best practice" output levels; (2) agronomic efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "potential" output levels; and (3) agro-economic efficiency, as the ratio of "best practice" to "potential" output levels. Also in the first stage, the economic frontier production model identifies factors that determine technical efficiency. In the second stage, agro-economic efficiency is analysed econometrically in relation to economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. The proposed framework has several important advantages in comparison with existing proposals. Firstly, it allows the systematic incorporation of all physical, economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity in analysing the productive performance of crop and animal production systems. Secondly, the location-specific physical factors are not modelled symmetrically as other economic inputs of production. Thirdly, climate change and technological advancements in crop and animal sciences can be modelled in a "forward-looking" manner. Fourthly, knowledge in agronomy and data from experimental studies can be utilised for socio-economic policy analysis. The proposed framework can be easily applied in empirical studies due to the current availability of ecological crop (animal) growth models, farm or secondary data, and econometric software packages. The article highlights several directions of empirical studies that researchers may pursue in the future.

Ocular characteristics of anisometropia

Animal models of refractive error development have demonstrated that visual experience influences ocular growth. In a variety of species, axial anisometropia (i.e. a difference in the length of the two eyes) can be induced through unilateral occlusion, image degradation or optical manipulation. In humans, anisometropia may occur in isolation or in association with amblyopia, strabismus or unilateral pathology. Non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia represents an interesting anomaly of ocular growth, since the two eyes within one visual system have grown to different endpoints. These experiments have investigated a range of biometric, optical and mechanical properties of anisometropic eyes (with and without amblyopia) with the aim of improving our current understanding of asymmetric refractive error development. In the first experiment, the interocular symmetry in 34 non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (31 Asian, 3 Caucasian) was examined during relaxed accommodation. A high degree of symmetry was observed between the fellow eyes for a range of optical, biometric and biomechanical measurements. When the magnitude of anisometropia exceeded 1.75 D, the more myopic eye was almost always the sighting dominant eye. Further analysis of the optical and biometric properties of the dominant and non-dominant eyes was conducted to determine any related factors but no significant interocular differences were observed with respect to best-corrected visual acuity, corneal or total ocular aberrations during relaxed accommodation. Given the high degree of symmetry observed between the fellow eyes during distance viewing in the first experiment and the strong association previously reported between near work and myopia development, the aim of the second experiment was to investigate the symmetry between the fellow eyes of the same 34 myopic anisometropes following a period of near work. Symmetrical changes in corneal and total ocular aberrations were observed following a short reading task (10 minutes, 2.5 D accommodation demand) which was attributed to the high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of anterior eye morphology, and corneal biomechanics. These changes were related to eyelid shape and position during downward gaze, but gave no clear indication of factors associated with near work that might cause asymmetric eye growth within an individual. Since the influence of near work on eye growth is likely to be most obvious during, rather than following near tasks, in the third experiment the interocular symmetry of the optical and biometric changes was examined during accommodation for 11 myopic anisometropes. The changes in anterior eye biometrics associated with accommodation were again similar between the eyes, resulting in symmetrical changes in the optical characteristics. However, the more myopic eyes exhibited slightly greater amounts of axial elongation during accommodation which may be related to the force exerted by the ciliary muscle. This small asymmetry in axial elongation we observed between the eyes may be due to interocular differences in posterior eye structure, given that the accommodative response was equal between eyes. Using ocular coherence tomography a reduced average choroidal thickness was observed in the more myopic eyes compared to the less myopic eyes of these subjects. The interocular difference in choroidal thickness was correlated with the magnitude of spherical equivalent and axial anisometropia. The symmetry in optics and biometrics between fellow eyes which have undergone significantly different visual development (i.e. anisometropic subjects with amblyopia) is also of interest with respect to refractive error development. In the final experiment the influence of altered visual experience upon corneal and ocular higher-order aberrations was investigated in 21 amblyopic subjects (8 refractive, 11 strabismic and 2 form deprivation). Significant differences in aberrations were observed between the fellow eyes, which varied according to the type of amblyopia. Refractive amblyopes displayed significantly higher levels of 4th order corneal aberrations (spherical aberration and secondary astigmatism) in the amblyopic eye compared to the fellow non-amblyopic eye. Strabismic amblyopes exhibited significantly higher levels of trefoil, a third order aberration, in the amblyopic eye for both corneal and total ocular aberrations. The results of this experiment suggest that asymmetric visual experience during development is associated with asymmetries in higher-order aberrations, proportional to the magnitude of anisometropia and dependent upon the amblyogenic factor. This suggests a direct link between the development of higher-order optical characteristics of the human eye and visual feedback. The results from these experiments have shown that a high degree of symmetry exists between the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes for a range of biomechanical, biometric and optical parameters for different levels of accommodation and following near work. While a single specific optical or biomechanical factor that is consistently associated with asymmetric refractive error development has not been identified, the findings from these studies suggest that further research into the association between ocular dominance, choroidal thickness and higher-order aberrations with anisometropia may improve our understanding of refractive error development.

Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data

In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios

Tissue engineering bone - reconstruction of critical sized segmental bone defects in a large animal model

Currently, well established clinical therapeutic approaches for bone reconstruction are restricted to the transplantation of autografts and allografts, and the implantation of metal devices or ceramic-based implants to assist bone regeneration. Bone grafts possess osteoconductive and osteoinductive properties, their application, however, is associated with disadvantages. These include limited access and availability, donor site morbidity and haemorrhage, increased risk of infection, and insufficient transplant integration. As a result, recent research focuses on the development of complementary therapeutic concepts. The field of tissue engineering has emerged as an important alternative approach to bone regeneration. Tissue engineering unites aspects of cellular biology, biomechanical engineering, biomaterial sciences and trauma and orthopaedic surgery. To obtain approval by regulatory bodies for these novel therapeutic concepts the level of therapeutic benefit must be demonstrated rigorously in well characterized, clinically relevant animal models. Therefore, in this PhD project, a reproducible and clinically relevant, ovine, critically sized, high load bearing, tibial defect model was established and characterized as a prerequisite to assess the regenerative potential of a novel treatment concept in vivo involving a medical grade polycaprolactone and tricalciumphosphate based composite scaffold and recombinant human bone morphogenetic proteins.

The relationship between self-reported animal fear and ERP modulation : Evidence for enhanced processing and fear of harmless invertebrates in snake- and spider-fearful individuals

The present study used ERPs to compare processing of fear-relevant (FR) animals (snakes and spiders) and non-fear-relevant (NFR) animals similar in appearance (worms and beetles). EEG was recorded from 18 undergraduate participants (10 females) as they completed two animal-viewing tasks that required simple categorization decisions. Participants were divided on a post hoc basis into low snake/spider fear and high snake/spider fear groups. Overall, FR animals were rated higher on fear and elicited a larger LPC. However, individual differences qualified these effects. Participants in the low fear group showed clear differentiation between FR and NFR animals on subjective ratings of fear and LPC modulation. In contrast, participants in the high fear group did not show such differentiation between FR and NFR animals. These findings suggest that the salience of feared-FR animals may generalize on both a behavioural and electro-cortical level to other animals of similar appearance but of a non-harmful nature.

Use of a zeolite synthesised from alkali treated kaolin as a K fertiliser : glasshouse experiments on leaching and uptake of K by wheat plants in sandy soil

Zeolite N, a zeolite referred to in earlier publications as MesoLite, is made by caustic reaction of kaolin at temperatures between 80 °C and 95 °C. This material has a very high cation exchange capacity (CEC ≈ 500 meq/100 g). Soil column leaching experiments have shown that K-zeolite N additions greatly reduce leaching of NH4+ fertilisers but the agronomic effectiveness of the retained K+ and NH4+ is unknown. To measure the bioavailability of K in this zeolite, wheat was grown in a glasshouse with K-zeolite N as the K fertiliser in highly-leached and non-leached pots for four weeks and compared with a soluble K fertiliser (KCl). The plants grown in non-leached pots and fertilised with K-zeolite N were slightly larger than those grown with KCl. The elemental compositions in the plants were similar except for Si being significantly more concentrated in the plants supplied with K-zeolite N. Thus K-zeolite N may be an effective K-fertiliser. Plants grown in highly-leached pots were significantly smaller than those grown in non-leached pots. Plants grown in highly-leached pots were severely K deficient as half of the K from both KCl and K-zeolite N was leached from the pots within three days.