An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

R2P ten years after the World Summit: Explaining ongoing contestation over Pillar III

This article examines how and why contrasting interpretations of the international community’s role in preventing and responding to mass atrocity crimes continue to exist a decade after the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) was unanimously endorsed at the 2005 World Summit. Building on recent critical constructivist insights into the fluid, dynamic nature of norms, it advances two main arguments. The first is that continuing contestation over R2P’s third pillar is a product of a combination of internal and external sources of norm dynamism. R2P’s inherently complex normative structure, coupled with several external factors, including the broader normative environment, norm implementation experiences and a shift in global power towards the BRICS, have contributed to a period of renewed contestation and triggered attempts to re-formulate R2P thorough Brazil’s ‘Responsibility while Protecting’ (RwP) proposal and China’s semi-official ‘Responsible Protection’ concept. The second central argument is that such contestation is affecting R2P’s distinct normative prescriptions in different ways. While resistance to the implementation of coercive pillar III measures is currently impeding the normative progress of that component of the norm, this contestation has not prevented consensual pillar II assistance from becoming more deeply embedded in international practice and discourse.

Dissection of class III major histocompatibility complex haplotypes associated with rheumatoid arthritis

Objective. We have previously identified a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) haplotype involving the lymphotoxin α (LTA) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) loci (termed haplotype LTA-TNF2) on chromosome 6 that shows differential association with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) on HLA-DRB1*0404 and *0401 haplotypes, suggesting the presence of additional non-HLA-DRB1 RA susceptibility genes on these haplotypes. To refine this association, we performed a case-control association study using both SNPs and microsatellite markers in haplotypes matched either for HLA-DRB1*0404 or for HLA-DRB1*0401. Methods. Fourteen SNPs lying between HLA-DRB1 and LTA were genotyped in 87 DRB1*04-positive families. High-density microsatellite typing was performed using 24 markers spanning 2,500 kb centered around the TNF gene in 305 DRB1*0401 or *0404 cases and 400 DRB1*0401 or *0404 controls. Single-marker, 2-marker, and 3-marker minihaplotypes were constructed and their frequencies compared between the DRB1*0401 and DRB1*0404 matched case and control haplotypes. Results. Marked preservation of major histocompatibility complex haplotypes was seen, with chromosomes carrying LTA-TNF2 and either DRB1*0401 or DRB1*0404 both carrying an identical SNP haplotype across the 1-Mb region between TNF and HLA-DRB1. Using microsatellite markers, we observed two 3-marker minihaplotypes that were significantly overrepresented in the DRB1*0404 case haplotypes (P = 0.00024 and P = 0.00097). Conclusion. The presence of a single extended SNP haplotype between LTA-TNF2 and both DRB1*0401 and DRB1*0404 is evidence against this region harboring the genetic effects in linkage disequillbrium with LTA-TNF2. Two RA-associated haplotypes on the background of DRB1*0404 were identified in a 126-kb region surrounding and centromeric to the TNF locus.

Fine mapping of the MHC Class III region demonstrates association of AIF1 and rheumatoid arthritis

Objective. The heritability of RA has been estimated to be ∼55%, of which the MHC contributes about one-third. HLA-DRB1 alleles are strongly associated with RA, but it is likely that significant non-DRB1 MHC genetic susceptibility factors are involved. Previously, we identified two three-marker haplotypes in a 106-kb region in the MHC class III region immediately centromeric to TNF, which are strongly associated with RA on HLA-DRB1*0404 haplotypes. In the present study, we aimed to refine these associations further using a combination of genotyping and gene expression studies. Methods. Thirty-nine nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 95 DRB1*0404 carrying unrelated RA cases, 125 DRB1*0404 - carrying healthy controls and 87 parent-case trio RA families in which the affected child carried HLA-DRB1*04. Quantitative RT-PCR was used to assess the expression of the positional candidate MHC class III genes APOM, BAT2, BAT3, BAT4, BAT5, AIF1, C6orf47, CSNK2β and LY6G5C, and the housekeeper genes, hypoxanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase (HPRT) and β2-microglobulin (B2M) in 31 RA cases and 21 ethnically, age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Synovial membrane specimens from RA, PsA and OA cases were stained by an indirect immunoperoxidase technique using a mouse-anti-human AIF1 monoclonal antibody. Results. Association was observed between RA and single markers or two marker haplotypes involving AIF1, BAT3 and CSNK. AIF1 was also significantly overexpressed in RA mononuclear cells (1.5- to 1.9-fold difference, P = 0.02 vs HPRT, P = 0.002 vs B2M). AIF1 protein was clearly expressed by synovial macrophages in all the inflammatory synovial samples in contrast to the non-inflammatory OA samples. Conclusions. The results of the genotyping and expression studies presented here suggest a role for AIF1 in both the aetiology and pathogenesis of RA.

Antithrombin III associated with fibrinogen predicts the risk of cerebral ischemic stroke

Background and purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the feasibility of developing plasma predictive value biomarkers of cerebral ischemic stroke before imaging evidence is acquired. Methods: Blood samples were obtained from 198 patients who attended our neurology department as emergencies - with symptoms of vertigo, numbness, limb weakness, etc. - within 4.5 h of symptom onset, and before imaging evidence was obtained and medical treatment. After the final diagnosis was made by MRI/DWI/MRA or CTA in the following 24-72 h, the above cases were divided into two groups: stroke group and non-stroke group according to the imaging results. The levels of baseline plasma antithrombin III (AT-III), thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT), fibrinogen, D-dimer and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in the two groups were assayed. Results: The level of the baseline AT-III in the stroke group was 118.07 ± 26.22%, which was lower than that of the non-stroke group (283.83 ± 38.39%). The levels of TAT, fibrinogen, hsCRP were 7.24 ± 2.28 μg/L, 5.49 ± 0.98 g/L, and 2.17 ± 1.07 mg/L, respectively, which were higher than those of the non-stroke group (2.53 ± 1.23 μg/L, 3.35 ± 0.50 g/L, 1.82 ± 0.67 mg/L). All the P-values were less than 0.001. The D-dimer level was 322.57 ± 60.34 μg/L, which was slightly higher than that of the non-stroke group (305.76 ± 49.52 μg/L), but the P-value was 0.667. The sensitivities of AT-III, TAT, fibrinogen, D-dimer and hsCRP for predicting ischemic stroke tendency were 97.37%, 96.05%, 3.29%, 7.89%, but the specificity was 93.62%, 82.61%, 100% and 100%, respectively, and all the P-values were less than 0.001. High levels of D-dimer and hsCRP were mainly seen in the few cases with severe large-vessel infarction. Conclusions: Clinical manifestations of acute focal neurological deficits were associated with plasma AT-III and fibrinogen. These tests might help the risk assessment of acute cerebral ischemic stroke and/or TIA with infarction tendency in the superacute stage before positive imaging evidence is obtained.

Organic–inorganic bismuth (III)-based material: A lead-free, air-stable and solution-processable light-absorber beyond organolead perovskites

Methylammonium bismuth (III) iodide single crystals and films have been developed and investigated. We have further presented the first demonstration of using this organic–inorganic bismuth-based material to replace lead/tin-based perovskite materials in solution-processable solar cells. The organic–inorganic bismuth-based material has advantages of non-toxicity, ambient stability, and low-temperature solution-processability, which provides a promising solution to address the toxicity and stability challenges in organolead- and organotin-based perovskite solar cells. We also demonstrated that trivalent metal cation-based organic–inorganic hybrid materials can exhibit photovoltaic effect, which may inspire more research work on developing and applying organic-inorganic hybrid materials beyond divalent metal cations (Pb (II) and Sn (II)) for solar energy applications.

2nd ESMO Consensus Conference in Lung Cancer: Locally advanced stage III non-small-cell lung cancer

To complement the existing treatment guidelines for all tumour types, ESMO organises consensus conferences to focus on specific issues in each type of tumour. The 2nd ESMO Consensus Conference on Lung Cancer was held on 11–12 May 2013 in Lugano. A total of 35 experts met to address several questions on non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in each of four areas: pathology and molecular biomarkers, first-line/second and further lines of treatment in advanced disease, early-stage disease and locally advanced disease. For each question, recommendations were made including reference to the grade of recommendation and level of evidence. This consensus paper focuses on locally advanced disease.