Cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : exploring industry feasibility through systems analysis, techno-economic assessment and pilot plant development

Overcoming many of the constraints to early stage investment in biofuels production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia requires an understanding of the complex technical, economic and systemic challenges associated with the transition of established sugar industry structures from single product agri-businesses to new diversified multi-product biorefineries. While positive investment decisions in new infrastructure requires technically feasible solutions and the attainment of project economic investment thresholds, many other systemic factors will influence the investment decision. These factors include the interrelationships between feedstock availability and energy use, competing product alternatives, technology acceptance and perceptions of project uncertainty and risk. This thesis explores the feasibility of a new cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia based on the large sugarcane fibre (bagasse) resource available. The research explores industry feasibility from multiple angles including the challenges of integrating ethanol production into an established sugarcane processing system, scoping the economic drivers and key variables relating to bioethanol projects and considering the impact of emerging technologies in improving industry feasibility. The opportunities available from pilot scale technology demonstration are also addressed. Systems analysis techniques are used to explore the interrelationships between the existing sugarcane industry and the developing cellulosic biofuels industry. This analysis has resulted in the development of a conceptual framework for a bagassebased cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia and uses this framework to assess the uncertainty in key project factors and investment risk. The analysis showed that the fundamental issue affecting investment in a cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia is the uncertainty in the future price of ethanol and government support that reduces the risks associated with early stage investment is likely to be necessary to promote commercialisation of this novel technology. Comprehensive techno-economic models have been developed and used to assess the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, to assess the feasibility of a soda-based biorefinery at the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and to assess the feasibility of reducing the cost of production of fermentable sugars from the in-planta expression of cellulases in sugarcane in Australia. These assessments show that ethanol from sugarcane in Australia has the potential to make a significant contribution to reducing Australia’s transportation fuel requirements from fossil fuels and that economically viable projects exist depending upon assumptions relating to product price, ethanol taxation arrangements and greenhouse gas emission reduction incentives. The conceptual design and development of a novel pilot scale cellulosic ethanol research and development facility is also reported in this thesis. The establishment of this facility enables the technical and economic feasibility of new technologies to be assessed in a multi-partner, collaborative environment. As a key outcome of this work, this study has delivered a facility that will enable novel cellulosic ethanol technologies to be assessed in a low investment risk environment, reducing the potential risks associated with early stage investment in commercial projects and hence promoting more rapid technology uptake. While the study has focussed on an exploration of the feasibility of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia, many of the same key issues will be of relevance to other sugarcane industries throughout the world seeking diversification of revenue through the implementation of novel cellulosic ethanol technologies.

Designerly analysis of a socio-physical design activity

The Making Design and Analysing Interaction track at the Participatory Innovation Conference calls for submissions from ‘Makers’ who will contribute examples of participatory innovation activities documented in video and ‘Analysts’ who will analyse those examples of participatory innovation activity. The aim of this paper is to open up for a discussion within the format of the track of the roles that designers could play in analysing the participatory innovation activities of others and to provide a starting point for this discussion through a concrete example of such ‘designerly analysis’. Designerly analysis opens new analytic frames for understanding participatory innovation and contributes to our understanding of design activities.

Optimising a coal rail network under capacity constraints

This research deals with an innovative methodology for optimising the coal train scheduling problem. Based on our previously published work, generic solution techniques are developed by utilising a “toolbox” of standard well-solved standard scheduling problems. According to our analysis, the coal train scheduling problem can be basically modelled a Blocking Parallel-Machine Job-Shop Scheduling (BPMJSS) problem with some minor constraints. To construct the feasible train schedules, an innovative constructive algorithm called the SLEK algorithm is proposed. To optimise the train schedule, a three-stage hybrid algorithm called the SLEK-BIH-TS algorithm is developed based on the definition of a sophisticated neighbourhood structure under the mechanism of the Best-Insertion-Heuristic (BIH) algorithm and Tabu Search (TS) metaheuristic algorithm. A case study is performed for optimising a complex real-world coal rail system in Australia. A method to calculate the lower bound of the makespan is proposed to evaluate results. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is promising to find the optimal or near-optimal feasible train timetables of a coal rail system under network and terminal capacity constraints.

Analysis of rural MUSA-MIMO-OFDM uplink channel capacity

Multi-user single antenna multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MUSA-MIMO-OFDM) is a promising technology to improve the spectrum efficiency of fixed wireless broadband access systems in rural areas. This letter investigates the capacity of MUSA-MIMO-OFDM uplink channel by theoretical, simulation, and empirical approaches considering up to six users. We propose an empirical capacity formula suitable for rural areas. Characteristics of channel capacity temporal variations and their relationship with the wind speed, observed in a rural area, are also presented in this letter.

Alleviating poverty by engaging in microenterprise : how can INGOs in Vietnam help microenterprises overcome market constraints?

Microenterprise programs (MEPs) that aim to help poor communities engage in micro businesses have contributed significantly to poverty reduction in developing countries. However, a review of the literature suggests that the current approach adopted by MEPs has mainly provided services to microenterprises (MEs) based on what MEPs can supply rather than on what MEs actually need and what the market demands. Therefore, MEPs’ approaches are more likely to be supply driven. Yet when there are market constraints, such as high competition or low demand, this approach has been linked to the failure of MEs in their infancy. The alternative is a demand driven approach, in which MEPs provide MEs with support based on what MEs need, and what markets demand. However, research examining the application of this approach is limited. In order to gain an understanding of the approaches of MEPs, to identify whether these approaches are demand or supply driven, and to discover how these approaches are used to help MEs operate under market constraints, this study examined the operation of International Non-Government Organisations (INGOs) operating in Vietnam. This exploratory study involved in-depth interviews with senior executives from 10 INGOs. Thematic analysis was used to analyse data collected from the in-depth interviews. The results were further verified with publicly available data from the INGOs. The findings of this research indicate that the demand driven approach is dominant in most approaches of INGOs in Vietnam, and has become a key approach in helping MEs deal with market constraints. Further, rather than explaining the demand and supply driven dichotomy, the findings highlight that MEPs’ approaches can be viewed in two dimensions: a participant-demand driven approach focusing on the basic needs and capabilities of the extremely poor, irrespective of market demands; and a market-demand driven approach focusing on the capabilities of poor communities, while also accommodating market demands. This research provides contemporary and practical insights into the DD and SD approaches, and a better understanding of MEPs’ approaches to MED in Vietnam.

Activity analysis in complicated scenes using DFT coefficients of particle trajectories

Modelling activities in crowded scenes is very challenging as object tracking is not robust in complicated scenes and optical flow does not capture long range motion. We propose a novel approach to analyse activities in crowded scenes using a “bag of particle trajectories”. Particle trajectories are extracted from foreground regions within short video clips using particle video, which estimates long range motion in contrast to optical flow which is only concerned with inter-frame motion. Our applications include temporal video segmentation and anomaly detection, and we perform our evaluation on several real-world datasets containing complicated scenes. We show that our approaches achieve state-of-the-art performance for both tasks.

Environmental factors controlling temporal and spatial variability in the soil-atmosphere exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O from an Australian subtropical rainforest

The temporal variations in CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured over two consecutive years from February 2007 to March 2009 from a subtropical rainforest in south-eastern Queensland, Australia, using an automated sampling system. A concurrent study using an additional 30 manual chambers examined the spatial variability of emissions distributed across three nearby remnant rainforest sites with similar vegetation and climatic conditions. Interannual variation in fluxes of all gases over the 2 years was minimal, despite large discrepancies in rainfall, whereas a pronounced seasonal variation could only be observed for CO2 fluxes. High infiltration, drainage and subsequent high soil aeration under the rainforest limited N2O loss while promoting substantial CH4 uptake. The average annual N2O loss of 0.5 ± 0.1 kg N2O-N ha−1 over the 2-year measurement period was at the lower end of reported fluxes from rainforest soils. The rainforest soil functioned as a sink for atmospheric CH4 throughout the entire 2-year period, despite periods of substantial rainfall. A clear linear correlation between soil moisture and CH4 uptake was found. Rates of uptake ranged from greater than 15 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 during extended dry periods to less than 2–5 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 when soil water content was high. The calculated annual CH4 uptake at the site was 3.65 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1. This is amongst the highest reported for rainforest systems, reiterating the ability of aerated subtropical rainforests to act as substantial sinks of CH4. The spatial study showed N2O fluxes almost eight times higher, and CH4 uptake reduced by over one-third, as clay content of the rainforest soil increased from 12% to more than 23%. This demonstrates that for some rainforest ecosystems, soil texture and related water infiltration and drainage capacity constraints may play a more important role in controlling fluxes than either vegetation or seasonal variability

Use of hierarchical cluster analysis to assess the representativeness of a baseline groundwater quality monitoring network: comparison of New Zealand’s national and regional groundwater monitoring programs

Baseline monitoring of groundwater quality aims to characterize the ambient condition of the resource and identify spatial or temporal trends. Sites comprising any baseline monitoring network must be selected to provide a representative perspective of groundwater quality across the aquifer(s) of interest. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) has been used as a means of assessing the representativeness of a groundwater quality monitoring network, using example datasets from New Zealand. HCA allows New Zealand's national and regional monitoring networks to be compared in terms of the number of water-quality categories identified in each network, the hydrochemistry at the centroids of these water-quality categories, the proportions of monitoring sites assigned to each water-quality category, and the range of concentrations for each analyte within each water-quality category. Through the HCA approach, the National Groundwater Monitoring Programme (117 sites) is shown to provide a highly representative perspective of groundwater quality across New Zealand, relative to the amalgamated regional monitoring networks operated by 15 different regional authorities (680 sites have sufficient data for inclusion in HCA). This methodology can be applied to evaluate the representativeness of any subset of monitoring sites taken from a larger network.

Spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Objective To identify the spatial and temporal clusters of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease in Queensland in Australia, using geographical information systems (GIS) and spatial scan statistic (SaTScan). Methods We obtained BFV disease cases, population and statistical local areas boundary data from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively during 1992-2008 for Queensland. A retrospective Poisson-based analysis using SaTScan software and method was conducted in order to identify both purely spatial and space-time BFV disease high-rate clusters. A spatial cluster size of a proportion of the population and a 200km circle radius and varying time windows from 1 month to 12 months were chosen (for the space-time analysis). Results The spatial scan statistic detected a most likely significant purely spatial cluster (including 23 SLAs) and a most likely significant space-time cluster (including 24 SLAs) in approximately the same location. Significant secondary clusters were also identified from both the analyses in several locations. Conclusions This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant BFV disease clusters in Queensland, Australia. The study also demonstrated the relevance and applicability of SaTScan in analysing on-going surveillance data to identify clusters to facilitate the development of effective BFV disease prevention and control strategies in Queensland, Australia.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Temporal boundary objects in megaprojects : mapping the system with the integrated master schedule

Recently, a stream of project management research has recognized the critical role of boundary objects in the organization of projects. In this paper, we investigate how one advanced scheduling tool, the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), is used as a temporal boundary object at various stages of complex projects. The IMS is critical to megaprojects which typically span long periods of time and face a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. In this paper, we conceptualize projects of this type as complex adaptive systems (CAS). We report the findings of four case projects on how the IMS mapped interactions, interdependencies, constraints, and fractal patterns of these emerging projects, and how the process of IMS visualization enabled communication and negotiation of project realities. This paper highlights that this advanced timeline tool acts as a boundary object and elicits shared understanding of complex projects from their stakeholders.

The inherent international tax regime and its constraints on Australia's sovereignty

Neither an international tax, nor an international taxing body exists. Rather, there are domestic taxing rules adopted by jurisdictions which, coupled with double tax treaties, apply to cross-border transactions and international taxation issues. International bodies such as the OECD and UN, which provide guidance on tax issues, often steer and supplement these domestic adoptions but have no binding international taxing powers. These pragmatic realities, together with the specific use of the word ‘regime’ within the tax community, lead many to argue that an international tax regime does not exist. However, an international tax regime should be defined no differently to any other area of international law and when we step outside the confines of tax law to consider the definition of a ‘regime’ within international relations it is possible to demonstrate that such a regime is very real. The first part of this article, by defining an international tax regime in a broader and more traditional context, also outlining both the tax policy and principles which frame that regime, reveals its existence. Once it is accepted that an international tax regime exists, it is possible to consider its adoption by jurisdictions and subsequent constraints it places on them. Using the proposed changes to transfer pricing laws as the impetus for assessing Australia’s adoption of the international tax regime, the constraints on sovereignty are assessed through a taxonomy of the level adoption. This reveals the subsequent constraints which flow from the broad acceptance of an international tax regime through to the specific adoption of technical detail. By undertaking this analysis, the second part of this article demonstrates that Australia has inherently adopted an international tax regime, with a move towards explicit adoption and a clear embedding of its principles within the domestic tax legislation.

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Informational constraints on the emergence of passing direction in the team sport of futsal

This study investigated compound spatial and temporal measures of interpersonal interactions purported to constrain the emergence of affordances for passing direction in the team sport of futsal. For this purpose, attacker–defender interactions in 37 sequences of play from a futsal competition in which 24 male professional players participated (M=30.04 years, SD=4.10) were filmed and analysed using TACTO software. Relative angle data were used as measures to study coordination tendencies that emerged between players during performance. Results showed that the direction for a pass emerged from relative angles between: (1) the vector from a ball carrier to ball receiver and the vector from the ball carrier to the nearest defender (70°) (p<0.01) and (2) the vector from a ball carrier to ball receiver and the vector from the ball carrier to a ball receiver's nearest defender (31°) (p < 0.01). Furthermore, passing direction was also constrained by temporal information from the emergence of both angles, since the pass was performed to attacker–defender dyads with the highest velocities of these angles (p < 0.05). Results suggested that decisions on selecting the direction of a pass in the team sport of futsal emerged at critical values of these key compound motion measures.

Nitrous oxide emissions from subtropical horticultural soils : a time series analysis

Time series regression models were used to examine the influence of environmental factors (soil water content and soil temperature) on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from subtropical soils, by taking into account temporal lagged environmental factors, autoregressive processes, and seasonality for three horticultural crops in a subtropical region of Australia. Fluxes of N2O, soil water content, and soil temperature were determined simultaneously on a weekly basis over a 12-month period in South East Queensland. Annual N2O emissions for soils under mango, pineapple, and custard apple were 1590, 1156, and 2038 g N2O-N/ha, respectively, with most emissions attributed to nitrification. The N2O-N emitted from the pineapple and custard apple crops was equivalent to 0.26 and 2.22%, respectively, of the applied mineral N. The change in soil water content was the key variable for describing N2O emissions at the weekly time-scale, with soil temperature at a lag of 1 month having a significant influence on average N2O emissions (averaged) at the monthly time-scale across the three crops. After accounting for soil temperature and soil water content, both the weekly and monthly time series regression models exhibited significant autocorrelation at lags of 1–2 weeks and 1–2 months, and significant seasonality for weekly N2O emissions for mango crop and for monthly N2O emissions for mango and custard apple crops in this location over this time-frame. Time series regression models can explain a higher percentage of the temporal variation of N2O emission compared with simple regression models using soil temperature and soil water content as drivers. Taking into account seasonal variability and temporal persistence in N2O emissions associated with soil water content and soil temperature may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty surrounding estimates of N2O emissions based on limited sampling effort.