Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

Do airlines always suffer from crashes?

We examine the impact of aviation disasters on the stock prices of the crash airlines and their rival airlines. Results show that the crash airlines experience deeper negative abnormal returns as the degree of fatality increases. The stock prices of the rival airlines also suffer in large-scale disasters but benefit from the disasters when the fatality is minor.

Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among oil prices, clean energy stock prices, and technology stock prices, endogenously controlling for structural changes in the market. To this end, we apply Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to the economic system consisting of oil prices, clean energy and technology stock prices, and interest rates. The results indicate that there was a structural change in late 2007, a period in which there was a significant increase in the price of oil. In contrast to the previous studies, we find a positive relationship between oil prices and clean energy prices after structural breaks. There also appears to be a similarity in terms of the market response to both clean energy stock prices and technology stock prices. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Stock prices of clean energy firms, oil and carbon markets : a vector autoregressive analysis

Recent discussions of energy security and climate change have attracted significant attention to clean energy. We hypothesize that rising prices of conventional energy and/or placement of a price on carbon emissions would encourage investments in clean energy firms. The data from three clean energy indices show that oil prices and technology stock prices separately affect the stock prices of clean energy firms. However, the data fail to demonstrate a significant relationship between carbon prices and the stock prices of the firms.

Environmental performance and returns to pollution abatement in China

Because of China's extremely rapid economic growth, the scale and seriousness of environmental problems is no longer in doubt. Whether pollution abatement technologies are utilized more efficiently is crucial in the analysis of environmental management in China. This study analyzes how the performance of environmental management has changed over time using province level data for 1992-2003. Mixed results for environmental performance are shown using nonparametric estimation technique. We find that environmental performance index, abatement effort, and increasing returns to pollution abatement play important roles in determining the pollution level over the period of the study.

Australian DOCAs versus UK pre-packs and CVAs : sifting through the ashes of comparative dividend returns

This article is something of a brief extension of recent research into deeds of company arrangement (DOCAs) under Pt 5.3A of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), conducted with the support of the Australian Restructuring Insolvency & Turnaround Association’s (ARITA’s) Terry Taylor Scholarship (TTS). This article presents some of the findings of that research (namely, the dividend outcomes delivered by sampled Australian DOCAs) in a manner consistent with reports which have recently emerged from similar research conducted in the UK. In so doing, a basic comparison can be made of the performance of Australian DOCAs against analogous UK procedures.

Australian stock indexes and the four-factor model

Stock indexes are passive 'value-weighted' portfolios and should not have alphas which are significantly different from zero. If an index produces an insignificant alphan, then significant alphas for equity funds using this index can be attributed solely to manager performance. However, recent literature sugests that US Stock indexes can demonstrate significant alphas, which ultimately raise questions regarding equity fund manager performance in both the US and abroad. in this paper, we employ the Carhart four-factor model and newly available Asian-Pacific risk factors to generate alphas and risk factor loadings for eight Australian stock indexes from January 2004 to December 2012. We ifnd that the initial full sample period analysis does not provide indication of significant alphas in the indexes examined. However, by carrying out 36-month rolling regressions, we discover at least four significant alphas in seven of the eight indexes and factor loading variability. As previously reported in the US, this paper confirms similar issues with the four-factor model using Australian stock indexes and performance benchmarking. In effectively measuring Australian equity fund manager performance, it is therefore essential to evaluate a fund's alpha and risk factors relative to the alpha and risk factors of the appropriate benchmark index.

Estimates of lost material stock of buildings and roads due to the great east Japan earthquake and tsunami

This article describes research conducted for the Japanese government in the wake of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011. In this study, material stock analysis (MSA) is used to examine the losses of building and infrastructure materials after this disaster. Estimates of the magnitude of material stock that has lost its social function as a result of a disaster can indicate the quantities required for reconstruction, help garner a better understanding of the volumes of waste flows generated by that disaster, and also help in the course of policy deliberations in the recovery of disaster-stricken areas. Calculations of the lost building and road materials in the five prefectures most affected were undertaken. Analysis in this study is based on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) databases and statistics; it aims to (1) describe in spatial terms what construction materials were lost, (2) estimate the amount of infrastructure material needed to rehabilitate disaster areas, and (3) indicate the amount of lost material stock that should be taken into consideration during government policy deliberations. Our analysis concludes that the material stock losses of buildings and road infrastructure are 31.8 and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. This research approach and the use of spatial MSA can be useful for urban planners and may also convey more appropriate information about disposal based on the work of municipalities in disaster-afflicted areas.

The equity and efficiency of the Australian share market with respect to director trading

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent of directors breaching the reporting requirements of the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Corporations Act in Australia. Further, it seeks to assess whether directors in Australia achieve abnormal returns from trades in their own companies. Design/methodology/approach – Using an event study approach on an Australian sample, abnormal returns for a range of situations were estimated. Findings – A total of 13 (seven) per cent of own‐company directors trades do not meet the ASX (Corporations Act) requirement of reporting within five (14) business days. Directors do achieve abnormal returns through trading in shares of their own companies. Ignoring transaction costs, outsiders can achieve abnormal returns by imitating directors' trades. Analysis of returns to directors after they trade but before they announce the trade to the market shows that directors are making small but statistically significant returns that are not available to the market. Analysis of returns to directors subsequent to the ASX reporting requirement up to the day the trade is reported shows that directors are making small but statistically significant returns that should be available to the market. Research limitations/implications – Future research should investigate the linkages between late reporting by directors and disadvantages to outside shareholders and the implementation of internal policies implemented to mitigate insider trading. Practical implications – Market participants should remain vigilant regarding the potential for late/non‐reporting of directors' trades. Originality/value – Uncovering breaches of reporting regulations are particularly important given that directors tend to purchase (sell) shares when the price is low (high), thereby achieving abnormal returns.

Linking spatial stock dynamics and economics: Evaluation of indicators and fishery management for the travelling eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

Reduced economic circumstances havemoved management goals towards higher profit, rather than maximum sustainable yields in several Australian fisheries. The eastern king prawn is one such fishery, for which we have developed new methodology for stock dynamics, calculation of model-based and data-based reference points and management strategy evaluation. The fishery is notable for the northward movement of prawns in eastern Australian waters, from the State jurisdiction of New South Wales to that of Queensland, as they grow to spawning size, so that vessels fishing in the northern deeper waters harvest more large prawns. Bioeconomic fishing data were standardized for calibrating a length-structured spatial operating model. Model simulations identified that reduced boat numbers and fishing effort could improve profitability while retaining viable fishing in each jurisdiction. Simulations also identified catch rate levels that were effective for monitoring in simple within-year effort-control rules. However, favourable performance of catch rate indicators was achieved only when a meaningful upper limit was placed on total allowed fishing effort. Themethods and findings will allow improved measures for monitoring fisheries and inform decision makers on the uncertainty and assumptions affecting economic indicators.

Stock-recruitment relationships of the tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery

This paper investigates the stock-recruitment and equilibrium yield dynamics for the two species of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) in Australia's most productive prawn fishery: the Northern Prawn Fishery. Commercial trawl logbooks for 1970-93 and research surveys are used to develop population models for these prawns. A population model that incorporates continuous recruitment is developed. Annual spawning stock and recruitment indices are then estimated from the population model. Spawning stock indices represent the abundance of female prawns that are likely to spawn; recruitment indices represent the abundance of all prawns less than a certain size. The relationships between spawning stock and subsequent recruitment (SRR), between recruitment and subsequent spawning stock (RSR), and between recruitment and commercial catch were estimated through maximum-likelihood models that incorporated autoregressive terms. Yield as a function of fishing effort was estimated by constraining to equilibrium the SRR and RSR. The resulting production model was then used to determine maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and its corresponding fishing effort (f(MSY)). Long-term yield estimates for the two tiger prawn species range between 3700 and 5300 t. The fishing effort at present is close to the level that should produce MSY for both species of tiger prawns. However, current landings, recruitment and spawning stock are below the equilibrium values predicted by the models. This may be because of uncertainty in the spawning stock-recruitment relationships, a change in carrying capacity, biased estimates of fishing effort, unreliable catch statistics, or simplistic assumptions about stock structure. Although our predictions of tiger prawn yields are uncertain, management will soon have to consider new measures to counteract the effects of future increases in fishing effort.