Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Automated symbolic and numeric procedure for manipulator rigid-body dynamic significance analysis and simplification

This paper describes an automated procedure for analysing the significance of each of the many terms in the equations of motion for a serial-link robot manipulator. Significance analysis provides insight into the rigid-body dynamic effects that are significant locally or globally in the manipulator's state space. Deleting those terms that do not contribute significantly to the total joint torque can greatly reduce the computational burden for online control, and a Monte-Carlo style simulation is used to investigate the errors thus introduced. The procedures described are a hybrid of symbolic and numeric techniques, and can be readily implemented using standard computer algebra packages.

A Helicopter named Dolly : behavioural cloning for autonomous helicopter control

This paper considers the pros and cons of using Behavioural cloning for the development of low-level helicopter automation modules. Over the course of this project several Behavioural cloning approaches have been investigated. The results of the most effective Behavioural cloning approach are then compared to PID modules designed for the same aircraft. The comparison takes into consideration development time, reliability, and control performance. It has been found that Behavioural cloning techniques employing local approximators and a wide state-space coverage during training can produce stabilising control modules in less time than tuning PID controllers. However, performance and reliabity deficits have been found to exist with the Behavioural Cloning, attributable largely to the time variant nature of the dynamics due to the operating environment, and the pilot actions being poor for teaching. The final conclusion drawn here is that tuning PID modules remains superior to behavioural cloning for low-level helicopter automation.

Experiments in learning helicopter control from a pilot

This paper details the development of a machine learning system which uses the helicopter state and the actions of an instructing pilot to synthesise helicopter control modules online. Aggressive destabilisation/restabilisation sequences are used for training, such that a wide state space envelope is covered during training. The performance of heading, roll, pitch, height and lateral velocity control learning is presented using our Xcell 60 experimental platform. The helicopter is demonstrated to be stabilised on all axes using the “learning from a pilot” technique. To our knowledge, this is the first time a “learning from a pilot” technique has been successfully applied to all axes.

Nonlinear control of the Reaction Wheel Pendulum

In this paper we introduce the Reaction Wheel Pendulum, a novel mechanical system consisting of a physical pendulum with a rotating bob. This system has several attractive features both from a pedagogical standpoint and from a research standpoint. From a pedagogical standpoint, the dynamics are the simplest among the various pendulum experiments available so that the system can be introduced to students earlier in their education. At the same time, the system is nonlinear and underactuated so that it can be used as a benchmark experiment to study recent advanced methodologies in nonlinear control, such as feedback linearization, passivity methods, backstepping and hybrid control. In this paper we discuss two control approaches for the problems of swingup and balance, namely, feedback linearization and passivity based control. We first show that the system is locally feedback linearizable by a local diffeomorphism in state space and nonlinear feedback. We compare the feedback linearization control with a linear pole-placement control for the problem of balancing the pendulum about the inverted position. For the swingup problem we discuss an energy approach based on collocated partial feedback linearization, and passivity of the resulting zero dynamics. A hybrid/switching control strategy is used to switch between the swingup and the balance control. Experimental results are presented.

Output feedback control of discrete-time systems in networked environments

This correspondence paper addresses the problem of output feedback stabilization of control systems in networked environments with quality-of-service (QoS) constraints. The problem is investigated in discrete-time state space using Lyapunov’s stability theory and the linear inequality matrix technique. A new discrete-time modeling approach is developed to describe a networked control system (NCS) with parameter uncertainties and nonideal network QoS. It integrates a network-induced delay, packet dropout, and other network behaviors into a unified framework. With this modeling, an improved stability condition, which is dependent on the lower and upper bounds of the equivalent network-induced delay, is established for the NCS with norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. It is further extended for the output feedback stabilization of the NCS with nonideal QoS. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the main results of the theoretical development.

Practical application of pseudospectral optimization to robot path planning

To obtain minimum time or minimum energy trajectories for robots it is necessary to employ planning methods which adequately consider the platform’s dynamic properties. A variety of sampling, graph-based or local receding-horizon optimisation methods have previously been proposed. These typically use simplified kino-dynamic models to avoid the significant computational burden of solving this problem in a high dimensional state-space. In this paper we investigate solutions from the class of pseudospectral optimisation methods which have grown in favour amongst the optimal control community in recent years. These methods have high computational efficiency and rapid convergence properties. We present a practical application of such an approach to the robot path planning problem to provide a trajectory considering the robot’s dynamic properties. We extend the existing literature by augmenting the path constraints with sensed obstacles rather than predefined analytical functions to enable real world application.

Stochastic modelling of T cell homeostasis for two competing clonotypes via the master equation

Stochastic models for competing clonotypes of T cells by multivariate, continuous-time, discrete state, Markov processes have been proposed in the literature by Stirk, Molina-París and van den Berg (2008). A stochastic modelling framework is important because of rare events associated with small populations of some critical cell types. Usually, computational methods for these problems employ a trajectory-based approach, based on Monte Carlo simulation. This is partly because the complementary, probability density function (PDF) approaches can be expensive but here we describe some efficient PDF approaches by directly solving the governing equations, known as the Master Equation. These computations are made very efficient through an approximation of the state space by the Finite State Projection and through the use of Krylov subspace methods when evolving the matrix exponential. These computational methods allow us to explore the evolution of the PDFs associated with these stochastic models, and bimodal distributions arise in some parameter regimes. Time-dependent propensities naturally arise in immunological processes due to, for example, age-dependent effects. Incorporating time-dependent propensities into the framework of the Master Equation significantly complicates the corresponding computational methods but here we describe an efficient approach via Magnus formulas. Although this contribution focuses on the example of competing clonotypes, the general principles are relevant to multivariate Markov processes and provide fundamental techniques for computational immunology.

Emergent task-specific object semantics through distributed experience networks

Autonomous development of sensorimotor coordination enables a robot to adapt and change its action choices to interact with the world throughout its lifetime. The Experience Network is a structure that rapidly learns coordination between visual and haptic inputs and motor action. This paper presents methods which handle the high dimensionality of the network state-space which occurs due to the simultaneous detection of multiple sensory features. The methods provide no significant increase in the complexity of the underlying representations and also allow emergent, task-specific, semantic information to inform action selection. Experimental results show rapid learning in a real robot, beginning with no sensorimotor mappings, to a mobile robot capable of wall avoidance and target acquisition.

Clustering of web users using the tensor decomposed models

We propose to use the Tensor Space Modeling (TSM) to represent and analyze the user’s web log data that consists of multiple interests and spans across multiple dimensions. Further we propose to use the decomposition factors of the Tensors for clustering the users based on similarity of search behaviour. Preliminary results show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional Vector Space Model (VSM) based clustering.

Privacy compliance verification in cryptographic protocols

To provide privacy protection, cryptographic primitives are frequently applied to communication protocols in an open environment (e.g. the Internet). We call these protocols privacy enhancing protocols (PEPs) which constitute a class of cryptographic protocols. Proof of the security properties, in terms of the privacy compliance, of PEPs is desirable before they can be deployed. However, the traditional provable security approach, though well-established for proving the security of cryptographic primitives, is not applicable to PEPs. We apply the formal language of Coloured Petri Nets (CPNs) to construct an executable specification of a representative PEP, namely the Private Information Escrow Bound to Multiple Conditions Protocol (PIEMCP). Formal semantics of the CPN specification allow us to reason about various privacy properties of PIEMCP using state space analysis techniques. This investigation provides insights into the modelling and analysis of PEPs in general, and demonstrates the benefit of applying a CPN-based formal approach to the privacy compliance verification of PEPs.

Sensor fault-tolerant observer applied in satellite attitude control

The observing failure and feedback instability might happen when the partial sensors of a satellite attitude control system (SACS) go wrong. A fault diagnosis and isolation (FDI) method based on a fault observer is introduced to detect and isolate the fault sensor at first. Based on the FDI result, the object system state-space equation is transformed and divided into a corresponsive triangular canonical form to decouple the normal subsystem from the fault subsystem. And then the KX fault-tolerant observers of the system in different modes are designed and embedded into online monitoring. The outputs of all KX fault-tolerant observers are selected by the control switch process. That can make sense that the SACS is part-observed and in stable when the partial sensors break down. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Dynamic weaving of aspects for business process management systems

Reducing complexity in Information Systems is a main concern in both research and industry. One strategy for reducing complexity is separation of concerns. This strategy advocates separating various concerns, like security and privacy, from the main concern. It results in less complex, easily maintainable, and more reusable Information Systems. Separation of concerns is addressed through the Aspect Oriented paradigm. This paradigm has been well researched and implemented in programming, where languages such as AspectJ have been developed. However, the rsearch on aspect orientation for Business Process Management is still at its beginning. While some efforts have been made proposing Aspect Oriented Business Process Modelling, it has not yet been investigated how to enact such process models in a Workflow Management System. In this paper, we define a set of requirements that specifies the execution of aspect oriented business process models. We create a Coloured Petri Net specification for the semantics of so-called Aspect Service that fulfils these requirements. Such a service extends the capability of a Workflow Management System with support for execution of aspect oriented business process models. The design specification of the Aspect Service is also inspected through state space analysis.

Many paths lead to discovery : analogical retrieval of cancer therapies

This paper addresses the issue of analogical inference, and its potential role as the mediator of new therapeutic discoveries, by using disjunction operators based on quantum connectives to combine many potential reasoning pathways into a single search expression. In it, we extend our previous work in which we developed an approach to analogical retrieval using the Predication-based Semantic Indexing (PSI) model, which encodes both concepts and the relationships between them in high-dimensional vector space. As in our previous work, we leverage the ability of PSI to infer predicate pathways connecting two example concepts, in this case comprising of known therapeutic relationships. For example, given that drug x TREATS disease z, we might infer the predicate pathway drug x INTERACTS WITH gene y ASSOCIATED WITH disease z, and use this pathway to search for drugs related to another disease in similar ways. As biological systems tend to be characterized by networks of relationships, we evaluate the ability of quantum-inspired operators to mediate inference and retrieval across multiple relations, by testing the ability of different approaches to recover known therapeutic relationships. In addition, we introduce a novel complex vector based implementation of PSI, based on Plate’s Circular Holographic Reduced Representations, which we utilize for all experiments in addition to the binary vector based approach we have applied in our previous research.