Review of statistical methods for disease mapping

Cancer poses an undeniable burden to the health and wellbeing of the Australian community. In a recent report commissioned by the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare(AIHW, 2010), one in every two Australians on average will be diagnosed with cancer by the age of 85, making cancer the second leading cause of death in 2007, preceded only by cardiovascular disease. Despite modest decreases in standardised combined cancer mortality over the past few decades, in part due to increased funding and access to screening programs, cancer remains a significant economic burden. In 2010, all cancers accounted for an estimated 19% of the country's total burden of disease, equating to approximately $3:8 billion in direct health system costs (Cancer Council Australia, 2011). Furthermore, there remains established socio-economic and other demographic inequalities in cancer incidence and survival, for example, by indigenous status and rurality. Therefore, in the interests of the nation's health and economic management, there is an immediate need to devise data-driven strategies to not only understand the socio-economic drivers of cancer but also facilitate the implementation of cost-effective resource allocation for cancer management...

Characterizing multi-agent team behavior from partial team tracings : evidence from the English Premier League

Real-world AI systems have been recently deployed which can automatically analyze the plan and tactics of tennis players. As the game-state is updated regularly at short intervals (i.e. point-level), a library of successful and unsuccessful plans of a player can be learnt over time. Given the relative strengths and weaknesses of a player’s plans, a set of proven plans or tactics from the library that characterize a player can be identified. For low-scoring, continuous team sports like soccer, such analysis for multi-agent teams does not exist as the game is not segmented into “discretized” plays (i.e. plans), making it difficult to obtain a library that characterizes a team’s behavior. Additionally, as player tracking data is costly and difficult to obtain, we only have partial team tracings in the form of ball actions which makes this problem even more difficult. In this paper, we propose a method to overcome these issues by representing team behavior via play-segments, which are spatio-temporal descriptions of ball movement over fixed windows of time. Using these representations we can characterize team behavior from entropy maps, which give a measure of predictability of team behaviors across the field. We show the efficacy and applicability of our method on the 2010-2011 English Premier League soccer data.

Gait parameters associated with hallux valgus : a systematic review

Background Hallux valgus (HV) has been linked to functional disability and increased falls risk in older adults. However, specific gait alterations in individuals with HV are unclear. This systematic review investigated gait parameters associated with HV in otherwise healthy adults. Methods Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL) were searched to October 2011, including cross-sectional studies with clearly defined HV and non-HV comparison groups. Two investigators independently rated studies for methodological quality. Effect sizes (95% confidence intervals (CI)) were calculated as standardized mean differences (SMD) for continuous data and risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data. Results Nine studies included a total of 589 participants. Three plantar pressure studies reported increased hallux loading (SMD 0.56 to 1.78) and medial forefoot loading (SMD 0.62 to 1.21), while one study found reduced first metatarsal loading (SMD −0.61, CI −1.19 to −0.03) in HV participants. HV participants demonstrated less ankle and rearfoot motion during terminal stance (SMD −0.81 to −0.63) and increased intrinsic muscle activity (RR 1.6, 1.1 to 2.2). Most studies reported no differences in spatio-temporal parameters; however, one study found reduced speed (SMD −0.73, -1.25 to −0.20), step length (SMD −0.66 to −0.59) and less stable gait patterns (SMD −0.86 to −0.78) in older adults with HV. Conclusions HV impacts on particular gait parameters, and further understanding of potentially modifiable factors is important for prevention and management of HV. Cause and effect relationships cannot be inferred from cross-sectional studies, thus prospective studies are warranted to elucidate the relationship between HV and functional disability.

Predator Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster planci) Outbreak, Mass Mortality of Corals, and Cascading Effects on Reef Fish and Benthic Communities

Outbreaks of the coral-killing seastar Acanthaster planci are intense disturbances that can decimate coral reefs. These events consist of the emergence of large swarms of the predatory seastar that feed on reef-building corals, often leading to widespread devastation of coral populations. While cyclic occurrences of such outbreaks are reported from many tropical reefs throughout the Indo-Pacific, their causes are hotly debated, and the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreaks and impacts to reef communities remain unclear. Based on observations of a recent event around the island of Moorea, French Polynesia, we show that Acanthaster outbreaks are methodic, slow-paced, and diffusive biological disturbances. Acanthaster outbreaks on insular reef systems like Moorea's appear to originate from restricted areas confined to the ocean-exposed base of reefs. Elevated Acanthaster densities then progressively spread to adjacent and shallower locations by migrations of seastars in aggregative waves that eventually affect the entire reef system. The directional migration across reefs appears to be a search for prey as reef portions affected by dense seastar aggregations are rapidly depleted of living corals and subsequently left behind. Coral decline on impacted reefs occurs by the sequential consumption of species in the order of Acanthaster feeding preferences. Acanthaster outbreaks thus result in predictable alteration of the coral community structure. The outbreak we report here is among the most intense and devastating ever reported. Using a hierarchical, multi-scale approach, we also show how sessile benthic communities and resident coral-feeding fish assemblages were subsequently affected by the decline of corals. By elucidating the processes involved in an Acanthaster outbreak, our study contributes to comprehending this widespread disturbance and should thus benefit targeted management actions for coral reef ecosystems.

Semi-binary based video features for activity representation

Efficient and effective feature detection and representation is an important consideration when processing videos, and a large number of applications such as motion analysis, 3D scene understanding, tracking etc. depend on this. Amongst several feature description methods, local features are becoming increasingly popular for representing videos because of their simplicity and efficiency. While they achieve state-of-the-art performance with low computational complexity, their performance is still too limited for real world applications. Furthermore, rapid increases in the uptake of mobile devices has increased the demand for algorithms that can run with reduced memory and computational requirements. In this paper we propose a semi binary based feature detectordescriptor based on the BRISK detector, which can detect and represent videos with significantly reduced computational requirements, while achieving comparable performance to the state of the art spatio-temporal feature descriptors. First, the BRISK feature detector is applied on a frame by frame basis to detect interest points, then the detected key points are compared against consecutive frames for significant motion. Key points with significant motion are encoded with the BRISK descriptor in the spatial domain and Motion Boundary Histogram in the temporal domain. This descriptor is not only lightweight but also has lower memory requirements because of the binary nature of the BRISK descriptor, allowing the possibility of applications using hand held devices.We evaluate the combination of detectordescriptor performance in the context of action classification with a standard, popular bag-of-features with SVM framework. Experiments are carried out on two popular datasets with varying complexity and we demonstrate comparable performance with other descriptors with reduced computational complexity.

Traffic state estimation from partial Bluetooth and volume observations : case study in the Brisbane metropolitan area

The application of the Bluetooth (BT) technology to transportation has been enabling researchers to make accurate travel time observations, in freeway and arterial roads. The Bluetooth traffic data are generally incomplete, for they only relate to those vehicles that are equipped with Bluetooth devices, and that are detected by the Bluetooth sensors of the road network. The fraction of detected vehicles versus the total number of transiting vehicles is often referred to as Bluetooth Penetration Rate (BTPR). The aim of this study is to precisely define the spatio-temporal relationship between the quantities that become available through the partial, noisy BT observations; and the hidden variables that describe the actual dynamics of vehicular traffic. To do so, we propose to incorporate a multi- class traffic model into a Sequential Montecarlo Estimation algorithm. Our framework has been applied for the empirical travel time investigations into the Brisbane Metropolitan region.

Bayesian inference of traffic volumes based on Bluetooth data

The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

Overview of complex systems in sport

The complex systems approach offers an opportunity to replace the extant pre-dominant mechanistic view on sport-related phenomena. The emphasis on the environment-system relationship, the applications of complexity principles, and the use of nonlinear dynamics mathematical tools propose a deep change in sport science. Coordination dynamics, ecological dynamics, and network approaches have been successfully applied to the study of different sport-related behaviors, from movement patterns that emerge at different scales constrained by specific sport contexts to game dynamics. Sport benefit from the use of such approaches in the understanding of technical, tactical, or physical conditioning aspects which change their meaning and dilute their frontiers. The creation of new learning and training strategies for teams and individual athletes is a main practical consequence. Some challenges for the future are investigating the influence of key control parameters in the nonlinear behavior of athlete-environment systems and the possible relatedness of the dynamics and constraints acting at different spatio-temporal scales in team sports. Modelling sport-related phenomena can make useful contributions to a better understanding of complex systems and vice-versa.

Disclose

Table of Contents “your darkness also/rich and beyond fear”: Community Performance, Somatic Poetics and the Vessels of Self and Other - Petra Kuppers. "So what will you do on the plinth?”: A Personal Experience of Disclosure during Antony Gormley’s "One & Other" Project - Jill Francesca Dowse. Food Confessions: Disclosing the Self through the Performance of Food - Jenny Lawson Participation Cartography: The Presentation of Self in Spatio-Temporal Terms - Luis Carlos Sotelo-Castro Disclosure in Biographically-Based Fiction: The Challenges of Writing Narratives Based on True Life Stories - Donna Lee Brien. Closure through Mock-Disclosure in Bret Easton Ellis’s Lunar Park - Jennifer Anne Phillips. Disclosing the Ethnographic Self - Christine Lohmeier Celebrity Twitter: Strategies of Intrusion and Disclosure in the Age of Technoculture - Nick Muntean, Anne Helen Petersen. “Just Emotional People”? Emo Culture and the Anxieties of Disclosure - Michelle Phillipov.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Bluetooth and Wi-Fi MAC address based crowd data collection and monitoring : benefits, challenges and enhancement

This paper firstly presents the benefits and critical challenges on the use of Bluetooth and Wi-Fi for crowd data collection and monitoring. The major challenges include antenna characteristics, environment’s complexity and scanning features. Wi-Fi and Bluetooth are compared in this paper in terms of architecture, discovery time, popularity of use and signal strength. Type of antennas used and the environment’s complexity such as trees for outdoor and partitions for indoor spaces highly affect the scanning range. The aforementioned challenges are empirically evaluated by “real” experiments using Bluetooth and Wi-Fi Scanners. The issues related to the antenna characteristics are also highlighted by experimenting with different antenna types. Novel scanning approaches including Overlapped Zones and Single Point Multi-Range detection methods will be then presented and verified by real-world tests. These novel techniques will be applied for location identification of the MAC IDs captured that can extract more information about people movement dynamics.

The choice of spatial scales and spatial smoothness priors for various spatial patterns

Given the drawbacks for using geo-political areas in mapping outcomes unrelated to geo-politics, a compromise is to aggregate and analyse data at the grid level. This has the advantage of allowing spatial smoothing and modelling at a biologically or physically relevant scale. This article addresses two consequent issues: the choice of the spatial smoothness prior and the scale of the grid. Firstly, we describe several spatial smoothness priors applicable for grid data and discuss the contexts in which these priors can be employed based on different aims. Two such aims are considered, i.e., to identify regions with clustering and to model spatial dependence in the data. Secondly, the choice of the grid size is shown to depend largely on the spatial patterns. We present a guide on the selection of spatial scales and smoothness priors for various point patterns based on the two aims for spatial smoothing.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Identifying team style in soccer using formations learned from spatiotemporal tracking data

To the trained-eye, experts can often identify a team based on their unique style of play due to their movement, passing and interactions. In this paper, we present a method which can accurately determine the identity of a team from spatiotemporal player tracking data. We do this by utilizing a formation descriptor which is found by minimizing the entropy of role-specific occupancy maps. We show how our approach is significantly better at identifying different teams compared to standard measures (i.e., shots, passes etc.). We demonstrate the utility of our approach using an entire season of Prozone player tracking data from a top-tier professional soccer league.

Mapping the unmappable

Mapping the Unmappable? the Choreography Shared Material on Dying through the Lens of the Technogenetic Dancer. If choreographic movement is a trace, which is already behind at the moment of its appearance, the impulses that move the dancer could be understood to reside in the virtual. Whether they are the internalized instructions of the choreographer, the inscriptions of concepts on the dancing body which shape how the dancer moves, or movement material that has been incorporated over time, this gestalt is somewhat mapped before is materialized. Erin Manning describes the moment before it manifests as the preacceleration of the movement, when the potentialities of the gesture collapse and stabilize into form. This form is transient, appearing as a trace that is dissolving as soon as it appears. In her critique of some approaches to collaborations between dance and technology she describes technology as a prosthetic that constrains the dancer's movement by inducing this collapse into stability and thus limiting the potentiality of the technogenetic body of the dancer. Thus the technology becomes the focus rather than the sophisticated sensorial skills of the dancer in movement. Using this challenge as a provocation, I have explored methods for mapping a choreographed phrase of movement from the piece entitled Shared Material on Dying by Irish choreographer, Liz Roche. I will explore the virtual space before this dance is materialized, through the frame of a technogenetic body. I will uncover, through phenomenological enquiry, the constituent elements that are embedded in this virtual map, that is, the associations, sensations and spatio-temporal reference points that have been incorporated over time. The purpose is to point to possible directions in mapping the virtual dance space and to understand choreographed movements not just in terms of their material trace but also in terms of the associations, sensations and perceptions that give a specific choreography its identity. This undertaking has relevance for archiving dance. This presentation will involve danced choreography alongside documented material to explore multiple perspectives on the piece and the experience of dancing it.