A Python package for Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation provides a solution to the complex integration problems that are faced in the Bayesian analysis of statistical problems. The implementation of MCMC algorithms is, however, code intensive and time consuming. We have developed a Python package, which is called PyMCMC, that aids in the construction of MCMC samplers and helps to substantially reduce the likelihood of coding error, as well as aid in the minimisation of repetitive code. PyMCMC contains classes for Gibbs, Metropolis Hastings, independent Metropolis Hastings, random walk Metropolis Hastings, orientational bias Monte Carlo and slice samplers as well as specific modules for common models such as a module for Bayesian regression analysis. PyMCMC is straightforward to optimise, taking advantage of the Python libraries Numpy and Scipy, as well as being readily extensible with C or Fortran.

Demand side response to mitigate electrical peak demand in Eastern and Southern Australia

The aim of this work is to develop a Demand-Side-Response (DSR) model, which assists electricity end-users to be engaged in mitigating peak demands on the electricity network in Eastern and Southern Australia. The proposed innovative model will comprise a technical set-up of a programmable internet relay, a router, solid state switches in addition to the suitable software to control electricity demand at user's premises. The software on appropriate multimedia tool (CD Rom) will be curtailing/shifting electric loads to the most appropriate time of the day following the implemented economic model, which is designed to be maximizing financial benefits to electricity consumers. Additionally the model is targeting a national electrical load be spread-out evenly throughout the year in order to satisfy best economic performance for electricity generation, transmission and distribution. The model is applicable in region managed by the Australian Energy Management Operator (AEMO) covering states of Eastern-, Southern-Australia and Tasmania.

Optimum demand side response of smart grid with renewable energy source and electrical vehicles

The paper presents a demand side response scheme,which assists electricity consumers to proactively control own demands in such a way to deliberately avert congestion periods on the electrical network. The scheme allows shifting loads from peak to low demand periods in an attempt to flattening the national electricity requirement. The scheme can be concurrently used to accommodate the utilization of renewable energy sources,that might be available at user’s premises. In addition the scheme allows a full-capacity utilization of the available electrical infrastructure by organizing a wide-use of electric vehicles. The scheme is applicable in the Eastern and Southern States of Australia managed by the Australian Energy Market Operator. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve energy savings and release capacity to accommodate renewable energy and electrical vehicle technologies.

Chain scission resists for extreme ultraviolet lithography based on high performance polysulfone-containing polymers

A series of polymers with a comb architecture were prepared where the poly(olefin sulfone) backbone was designed to be highly sensitive to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, while the well-defined poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) arms were incorporated with the aim of increasing structural stability. It is hypothesized that upon EUV radiation rapid degradation of the polysulfone backbone will occur leaving behind the well-defined PMMA arms. The synthesized polymers were characterised and have had their performance as chain-scission EUV photoresists evaluated. It was found that all materials possess high sensitivity towards degradation by EUV radiation (E0 in the range 4–6 mJ cm−2). Selective degradation of the poly(1-pentene sulfone) backbone relative to the PMMA arms was demonstrated by mass spectrometry headspace analysis during EUV irradiation and by grazing-angle ATR-FTIR. EUV interference patterning has shown that materials are capable of resolving 30 nm 1:1 line:space features. The incorporation of PMMA was found to increase the structural integrity of the patterned features. Thus, it has been shown that terpolymer materials possessing a highly sensitive poly(olefin sulfone) backbone and PMMA arms are able to provide a tuneable materials platform for chain scission EUV resists. These materials have the potential to benefit applications that require nanopattering, such as computer chip manufacture and nano-MEMS.

Achieving supply chain sustainability : the role of relationship management, culture and procurement form

In this research we examined, by means of case studies, the mechanisms by which relationships can be managed and by which communication and cooperation can be enhanced in developing sustainable supply chains. The research was predicated on the contention that the development of a sustainable supply chain depends, in part, on the transfer of knowledge and capabilities from the larger players in the supply chain. A sustainable supply chain requires proactive relationship management and the development of an appropriate organisational culture, and trust. By legitimising individuals’ expectations of the type of culture which is appropriate to their company and empowering employees to address mismatches that may occur, a situation can be created whereby the collaborating organisations develop their competences symbiotically and so facilitate a sustainable supply chain. Effective supply chain management enhances organisation performance and competitiveness through the management of operations across organisational boundaries. Relational contracting approaches facilitate the exchange of information and knowledge and build capacity in the supply chain, thus enhancing its sustainability. Relationship management also provides the conditions necessary for the development of collaborative and cooperative relationships However, often subcontractors and suppliers are not empowered to attend project meetings or to have direct communication with project based staff. With this being a common phenomenon in the construction industry, one might ask: what are the barriers to implementation of relationship management through the supply chain? In other words, the problem addressed in this research is the engagement of the supply chain through relationship management.

Aligning the drivers in the value chain - a new cane payment system for Mackay Sugar

For the 2005 season, Mackay Sugar and its growers agreed to implement a new cane payment system. The aim of the new system was to better align the business drivers between the mill and its growers and as a result improve business decision making. The technical basis of the new cane payment system included a fixed sharing of the revenue from sugar cane between the mill and growers. Further, the new system replaced the CCS formula with a new estimate of recoverable sugar (PRS) and introduced NIR for payment analyses. Significant mill and grower consultation processes led to the agreement to implement the new system in 2005 and this consultative approach has been reflected in two seasons of successful operation.

Competences and capabilities for innovation in supply chain relationships

There is little empirical research on the relational capabilities and competences in supply chain relationships, and the important links that exist between relational capabilities, competences and supply chain innovation. This study addresses some of that knowledge gap gained through a case study of the Australian freight services sector. Findings suggest that different competences developed by supply chain participants support different ways to enable operational effectiveness. Road freight businesses should acquire knowledge of how to select and manage inter-firm relationships that provide the greatest benefit, acquiring competences that either improve their current capabilities or assist them to explore strategies that ensure incremental innovation and supply chain performance objectives are met.

Triangular Linguistic Fuzzy based performance measurement model for supply chain to assess leanness attributes

Increasing global competitiveness worldwide has forced manufacturing organizations to produce high-quality products more quickly and at a competitive cost. In order to reach these goals, they need good quality components from suppliers at optimum price and lead time. This actually forced all the companies to adapt different improvement practices such as lean manufacturing, Just in Time (JIT) and effective supply chain management. Applying new improvement techniques and tools cause higher establishment costs and more Information Delay (ID). On the contrary, these new techniques may reduce the risk of stock outs and affect supply chain flexibility to give a better overall performance. But industry people are unable to measure the overall affects of those improvement techniques with a standard evaluation model .So an effective overall supply chain performance evaluation model is essential for suppliers as well as manufacturers to assess their companies under different supply chain strategies. However, literature on lean supply chain performance evaluation is comparatively limited. Moreover, most of the models assumed random values for performance variables. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective supply chain performance evaluation model using triangular linguistic fuzzy numbers and to recommend optimum ranges for performance variables for lean implementation. The model initially considers all the supply chain performance criteria (input, output and flexibility), converts the values to triangular linguistic fuzzy numbers and evaluates overall supply chain performance under different situations. Results show that with the proposed performance measurement model, improvement area for each variable can be accurately identified.

Relationship management as a strategy for supply chain engagement in the civil engineering construction industry

Many studies into construction procurement methods reveal evidence of a need to change the culture and attitude in the construction industry, transition from traditional adversarial relationships to cooperative and collaborative relationships. At the same time there is also increasing concern and discussion on alternative procurement methods, involving a movement away from traditional procurement systems. Relational contracting approaches, such as partnering and relationship management, are business strategies that align the objectives of clients, commercial participants and stakeholders. It provides a collaborative environment and a framework for all participants to adapt their behaviour to project objectives and allows for engagement of those subcontractors and suppliers down the supply chain. The efficacy of relationship management in the client and contractor groups is proven and well documented. However, the industry has a history of slow implementation of relational contracting down the supply chain. Furthermore, there exists little research on relationship management conducted in the supply chain context. This research aims to explore the association between relational contracting structures and processes and supply chain sustainability in the civil engineering construction industry. It endeavours to shed light on the practices and prerequisites for relationship management implementation success and for supply sustainability to develop. The research methodology is a triangulated approach based on Cheung.s (2006) earlier research where questionnaire survey, interviews and case studies were conducted. This new research includes a face-to-face questionnaire survey that was carried out with 100 professionals from 27 contracting organisations in Queensland from June 2008 to January 2009. A follow-up survey sub-questionnaire, further examining project participants. perspectives was sent to another group of professionals (as identified in the main questionnaire survey). Statistical analysis including multiple regression, correlation, principal component factor analysis and analysis of variance were used to identify the underlying dimensions and test the relationships among variables. Interviews and case studies were conducted to assist in providing a deeper understanding as well as explaining findings of the quantitative study. The qualitative approaches also gave the opportunity to critique and validate the research findings. This research presents the implementation of relationship management from the contractor.s perspective. Findings show that the adaption of relational contracting approach in the supply chain is found to be limited; contractors still prefer to keep the suppliers and subcontractors at arm.s length. This research shows that the degree of match and mismatch between organisational structuring and organisational process has an impact on staff.s commitment level and performance effectiveness. Key issues affecting performance effectiveness and relationship effectiveness include total influence between parties, access to information, personal acquaintance, communication process, risk identification, timely problem solving and commercial framework. Findings also indicate that alliance and Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) projects achieve higher performance effectiveness at both short-term and long-term levels compared to projects with either no or partial relationship management adopted.

Investigating relationships between relationship quality, customer loyalty and cooperation : an empirical study of convenience stores' franchise chain systems

Small business has been shown to contribute significantly to a nation’s economic development. Small business owners typically confront challenges, uncertainty, and risks while operating new businesses. Franchising has become a way to minimize the risks of small business management (Chiou et al., 2004); however, a franchise system is not a guarantee of business success (Lee and Karkovista, 2001). A poor franchising relationship between franchisors and franchisees can result in franchise failure, such as termination and closure, or franchisee exit (Frazer and Winzar, 2005).

The motivation and structure of corrupt police networks : theorising the dark side of the ‘thin blue line’

In recent times considerable research attention has been directed to understanding dark networks, especially criminal and terrorist networks. Dark networks are those in which member motivations are self rather than public interested, achievements come at the cost of other individuals, groups or societies and, in addition, their activities are both ‘covert and illegal’ (Raab & Milward, 2003: 415). This ‘darkness’ has implications for the way in which these networks are structured, the strategies adopted and their recruitment methods. Such entities exhibit distinctive operating characteristics including most notably the tension between creating an efficient network structure while retaining the ability to hide from public view while avoiding catastrophic collapse should one member cooperate with authorities (Bouchard 2007). While theoretical emphasis has been on criminal and terrorist networks, recent work has demonstrated that corrupt police networks exhibit some distinctive characteristics. In particular, these entities operate within the shadows of a host organisation - the Police Force and distort the functioning of the ‘Thin Blue Line’ as the interface between the law abiding citizenry and the criminal society. Drawing on data derived from the Queensland Fitzgerald Commission of Enquiry into Police Misconduct and related documents, this paper examines the motivations, structural properties and operational practices of corrupt police networks and compares and contrasts these with other dark networks with ‘bright’ public service networks. The paper confirms the structural differences between dark corrupt police networks and bright networks and suggests. However, structural embeddedness alone is found to be an insufficient theoretical explanation for member involvement in networks and that a set of elements combine to impact decision-making. Although offering important insights into network participation, the paper’s findings are especially pertinent in identifying additional points of intervention for police corruption networks.